If you haven’t read the previous episode’s analysis you can get your sugar fix here.

A reasonably straightforward episode with a reasonably straightforward outcome. I think that is pretty much what we can expect from the remaining three or four episodes with this cast of clowns. That this is our final five is further testament to what I mentioned last analysis, that there needs to be some sort of shake-up of the Australian format. I DON’T WANT ANY OF THESE PEOPLE TO WIN! And I’m sure I’m not the only one. I need to make like Tessa and put my emotion aside so that I can continue with this analysis, but with so few people left, and so few strategic options, there’ll be little to discuss, but let’s make like T-Bone and have rice for breakfast on Mother’s Day. And by that I mean, get on with it.

Should Have Zagged.

The one thing that bugged me for almost the entire episode was Ziggy’s inability to search for other options for herself. Surely it’s as clear to everyone out there playing the game as it is to us here on our couches, that Tara is in no way reliable, dependable, or predictable. That makes her the biggest threat to your game (to clarify, NOT the biggest threat to WIN the game). To me Ziggy’s best play this episode would have been to approach the Peter, Jerkicho, and Michelle alliance (P, J & M) and propose to them that neither side can bank on her vote, that because no-one can know which way she will go, she’s a threat to everyone’s game. Both side’s game rested on her vote.

Now it is possible that Jerkicho and his gang knew they had T-Bone all along. How tribal played out would suggest otherwise (more on this later). It is also possible that had Ziggy proposed such a move, that P, J & M could just agree with the move, tell her that they would vote for T-Bone, and vote Ziggy anyway. Regardless, it was worth a shot for Ziggy. She may have got a feeling that they weren’t as strong as they presented. Instead, she seemed to sit back and hope that T-Bone would vote with her. Even when P, J & M went on a targeted offensive at tribal to flip T-Bone like she’s been on a searing BBQ for two minutes, Ziggy still didn’t fight to gain T-Bone’s vote. Instead digging in her heels. And while I won’t say that this is why she went home, without showing any strategic tenacity she was never going to get further. AND SHE (nor anyone) DIDN’T EVEN SEARCH FOR AN IDOL?!?!?! (I assume). Was flipping the right move for T-Bone though?

 

Bonehead

Why is Tara so steadfastly aligned with Ziggy? Does she seriously think she can beat Ziggy in a final two?!?! Incidentally there was a lot of talk about a final three in this episode. Does anyone think this is what will occur this season? Has anybody heard any rumours? Let me know below. Back to T-Bone. For me it was a no-brainer that she should have voted against Ziggy. What now for her? Doesn’t really matter because she can’t win. Based on the numbers I ran last week, the only person she has any possibility of beating is Michelle. With this being the case, I would argue her best play from here, notwithstanding that everybody rightly wants Locky gone, is to propose a final two with Michelle. As the two solid underdogs everybody wants to take them to the final two. Once Locky is gone (hopefully he’ll lose an immunity challenge soon) this scenario would leave Jerkicho and Peter to vie for Michell and T-Bone’s vote. A powerful position to be in. If we are left with a Michelle and T-Bone finale, I will be a very dissatisfied Survivor fan. With this a distinct possibility, what should Jerkicho and Peter be doing to prevent that?

Pearl Jam (P & J, yeah it’s weak I know)

Well, for these two, the best bet is to do the same thing that I’ve proposed above for MT (oh yeah, say those two letters fast and tell me it’s not an apt descriptor for Michelle and Tara!!). To band together against MT (again, once Locky is gone), as I would argue that they are more likely to win immunity than MT, then each of them has to hope they can win the final immunity so they can choose who to take to the end. For Jerkicho, based on last weeks numbers, he can beat them all. Peter should be able to beat MT in a final two.
The possibility that Locky could realistically win every immunity between now and the end is something that should be factored in though. How on earth do you manage that spanner (yes, by spanner I do mean both that this scenario would be a ‘spanner in the works’, and that Locky is a tool)?

Tickle The Boxes

“MY GIRLS!!!” This two word utterance from Locky tells you everything you need to know about the chauvinistic, entitled, domineering, arrogant way he has played this game. Fuck me I hope he doesn’t win. I’ll admit that he is very good at challenges, and tonight, unsurprisingly he showed he was good at spinning shit. But that is where any credit I give him ends. He’s shat me since day one, and to be honest has been lucky to make it this far. I’d love for someone out there to count just how many times he voted the wrong way at tribal (let me know below).
Unfortunately, based on last week’s analysis, and now that Ziggy is out of the picture, if he makes the final two at this point, he is a shoo in. So as I’ve alluded to above, the first thought in the minds of the other four is, and should be, getting rid of Locky. Each of these four though also needs to do their best to convince Locky that they will solidly vote with him in the event he continues to win, and hope that he chooses them to take to the end. And I’ll say it one more time just so that nobody could possibly misunderstand, EVERYONE SHOULD BE HUNTING FOR IDOLS!

Before I go I will quickly note how impressed I was with the pressure that P, J & M applied to Tara at tribal council. Without this directed focussed pressure, she arguably would have voted the other way. But P, J & M were savvy enough to realise that if they Turned up the hit on the T-Bone, pretty soon she would be ready to flip.

Well, that ought to be enough from me for now, time to take my antibiotics, put on a Survivor podcast, and drift off to sleep. I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

 

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)