Episode 23 – ‘Up All Night To Get Locky’ OR ‘Daft Punk Dumb Jock’

If you need a security blanket before diving into this episode’s analysis, check out the analysis of the previous episode here!

905BFA59-331D-4647-AF0A-3CDD439895F4 — ***Care to provide some evidence for that claim….***

Alright Featherheads, I’m going to have to make this short and sweet (Like AK’s reign). I’m sick as a mofo and have to crawl into bed. But I’m a committed sick mofo, so let’s celebrate the departure of everybody’s least loved Alien vs Predator Guy (what the heck does that mean Jerkicho?) with brief analysis of a pretty straightforward episode.

Harder, Better, 2 Seconds Slower, Stronger

7AE82955-596F-4868-A3A3-DB5D89BA94F6 — ***….that’s a more accurate claim.***

Thanks Locky for telling everyone 50 times that you were only beaten by two seconds. Michelle had literally just won her first immunity challenge so the time was perfect to remind everyone how awesome you are and that it is all about you. I have to give some credit where it is due. He was sharp enough to pick up the idol clue and fabric scrap that Anneliese dropped. I don’t know why it took him at least ten days to do anything with it. Surely in that ten days he could try and fashion an idol out of it. Sure, everybody knows by now just what an idol looks like, they’re quite distinctive this season, so I’ll concede that the task is harder than it sounds. More credit to the effort he put in scrambling tonight. Though, I would imagine that the best way to get T-Bone back on side would not be to call her a flipper and start an argument with her and tell her she did the wrong thing. If he had to beg, plead, for her sympathy, he should have tried, if the game meant so much to he (not a typo…sing it). The big dill. But of course Locky’s ego wouldn’t allow him to talk to her any other way. So that stuff aside, I guess he really tried using just about everything he had in him. The question is, is there more he could have done this episode that might have saved himself, short of winning immunity again. I can’t think of anything. He tried different tactics for different players, and even had Michelle believing that he saw her as a threat. I really don’t see anything else he could have done. Let me know if there’s anything you think of below.

Idol Chatter

0E12C5A4-467C-4DB1-B2CF-3A8765362510 — ***“A la peanut butter sandwiches!!” Locky conjures an idol.***

I would like to say that I’m shocked that MT believed he had an idol, but I’m not. Peter seemed to be the only one smart enough to request that he show it. His line about the power of the idol and the move is only powerful if you don’t show it being one of the most interesting bullshit excuses I’ve ever heard on Survivor. Particularly if you factor in that this was the last tribal an idol could be played, so if he really had it he had nothing to lose. If you’ve really got an idol why would you scramble so much. As Phoebe and Kristie showed last season, if you’ve got an idol, the play here is to let everyone think that you’re resigned to going home, then spring the idol at tribal. That he shared he had an idol was all the proof needed that he didn’t have an idol. Though I don’t disagree with Michelle’s thinking in voting Peter. I’ll also point out how impressed I was that T-Bone showed actual competency and presence of mind in noting Locky’s reaction to losing the challenge. Well done T-Bone.

Holden Hope

F89EE98E-3F2B-4A28-AEF5-173798DE6AA9 — ***Oh. What a feeling…***

Credit to Michelle for her immunity win. If you had asked me a month ago if I could see myself yelling “GO MICHELLE, GO” at the tv, I would have choked on my papaya. And yet, there I was…
I understand her thinking that by voting against Pete she had an ally in Locky if he really did have an idol, but it shouldn’t have gotten to that. She should have given him an ultimatum, “show me your idol, and I’ll vote with you”. She didn’t seem to do that. Had she done so I’d like to think there is no way that Locky could convince her that he had it. But, he did convince here that he thought she was a threat, so I guess it’s not outside of the realm of possibilities. This is Michelle we’re talking about. What’s her plan now? Nothing has changed for my final four from what I suggested last analysis. Buddy up and be ostensibly two strong, then form a secret alliance with one person of the remaining two and go to the end together. This holds for each of the remaining four. And of course, look for some advantage and try like hell to win immunity. I imagine there is an advantage or twist yet to come. Last season there were 26 episodes. If we’re to have 26 episodes again this season, that means there’s an episode without an eviction of a player on the horizon. Given that Channel Ten has heavily promoted Wake In Fright as airing at 8:30 this Sunday, I’d say that any such twist will be next episode.

Human After All?

4DBDF689-D8F3-4630-BB5E-C11A62711B79 — ***And he don’t mean Greatest Of All Time… (or God Of All Texas)***

The only other thing of note to mention this episode is how much the term ‘goat’ was thrown around, and how much our players, Peter particularly, distanced themselves from that descriptor. I was surprised that people wanted to point out how well they had played the game at this point in the game. J-LaP made a good point, one that I have made in the past, and that is that the goat can be seen as a threat because they could take one of the coveted final spots. I don’t believe that holds true this late in the game and with a final four comprised solely of goats. If you believe you’ve got a solid resume to present at final tribal council, present it at final tribal council. Don’t present it here and have people think you could beat them. It also allows them to develop counterpoints to your argument should they face you at final tribal. So needless to say I thought it was foolish of Peter to do that tonight. I understand it though. Locky had changed the conversation. Proposing the old, “if you want to be the best, beat the best” argument. An argument I have never agreed with. My counter-argument being, if you think someone (like Locky) is the best competition, then you’ve already beaten them by voting them out when you did (like tonight). If you disagree, I’d love to hear arguments as to why you might think that being labelled a goat (or sheep) tonight would be a baaaad thing (yes, that just happened. I told you I was sick).

So that’s all I’ve got for tonight. Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 22 – ‘Think, Quick’ OR ‘Stale, Mate’

If you haven’t read the previous episode’s analysis you can get your sugar fix here.

A reasonably straightforward episode with a reasonably straightforward outcome. I think that is pretty much what we can expect from the remaining three or four episodes with this cast of clowns. That this is our final five is further testament to what I mentioned last analysis, that there needs to be some sort of shake-up of the Australian format. I DON’T WANT ANY OF THESE PEOPLE TO WIN! And I’m sure I’m not the only one. I need to make like Tessa and put my emotion aside so that I can continue with this analysis, but with so few people left, and so few strategic options, there’ll be little to discuss, but let’s make like T-Bone and have rice for breakfast on Mother’s Day. And by that I mean, get on with it.

Should Have Zagged.

D6BF7C36-7733-4578-A123-33ADEC209F5F — ***Last Supper***

The one thing that bugged me for almost the entire episode was Ziggy’s inability to search for other options for herself. Surely it’s as clear to everyone out there playing the game as it is to us here on our couches, that Tara is in no way reliable, dependable, or predictable. That makes her the biggest threat to your game (to clarify, NOT the biggest threat to WIN the game). To me Ziggy’s best play this episode would have been to approach the Peter, Jerkicho, and Michelle alliance (P, J & M) and propose to them that neither side can bank on her vote, that because no-one can know which way she will go, she’s a threat to everyone’s game. Both side’s game rested on her vote.

71F9AB17-111C-4586-8C01-58FFF3545B18 — ***Playing dumb, or dumb playing?***

Now it is possible that Jerkicho and his gang knew they had T-Bone all along. How tribal played out would suggest otherwise (more on this later). It is also possible that had Ziggy proposed such a move, that P, J & M could just agree with the move, tell her that they would vote for T-Bone, and vote Ziggy anyway. Regardless, it was worth a shot for Ziggy. She may have got a feeling that they weren’t as strong as they presented. Instead, she seemed to sit back and hope that T-Bone would vote with her. Even when P, J & M went on a targeted offensive at tribal to flip T-Bone like she’s been on a searing BBQ for two minutes, Ziggy still didn’t fight to gain T-Bone’s vote. Instead digging in her heels. And while I won’t say that this is why she went home, without showing any strategic tenacity she was never going to get further. AND SHE (nor anyone) DIDN’T EVEN SEARCH FOR AN IDOL?!?!?! (I assume). Was flipping the right move for T-Bone though?

Bonehead

BCD0D7AF-1D10-49E4-9735-51B03B24A126 — ***Just at tribal???***

Why is Tara so steadfastly aligned with Ziggy? Does she seriously think she can beat Ziggy in a final two?!?! Incidentally there was a lot of talk about a final three in this episode. Does anyone think this is what will occur this season? Has anybody heard any rumours? Let me know below. Back to T-Bone. For me it was a no-brainer that she should have voted against Ziggy. What now for her? Doesn’t really matter because she can’t win. Based on the numbers I ran last week, the only person she has any possibility of beating is Michelle. With this being the case, I would argue her best play from here, notwithstanding that everybody rightly wants Locky gone, is to propose a final two with Michelle. As the two solid underdogs everybody wants to take them to the final two. Once Locky is gone (hopefully he’ll lose an immunity challenge soon) this scenario would leave Jerkicho and Peter to vie for Michell and T-Bone’s vote. A powerful position to be in. If we are left with a Michelle and T-Bone finale, I will be a very dissatisfied Survivor fan. With this a distinct possibility, what should Jerkicho and Peter be doing to prevent that?

Pearl Jam (P & J, yeah it’s weak I know)

FF36B3FE-18C1-4D86-B15C-43EBA157A8A5 — ***🎵Jericho spoke in, claaaaaass today🎵***

Well, for these two, the best bet is to do the same thing that I’ve proposed above for MT (oh yeah, say those two letters fast and tell me it’s not an apt descriptor for Michelle and Tara!!). To band together against MT (again, once Locky is gone), as I would argue that they are more likely to win immunity than MT, then each of them has to hope they can win the final immunity so they can choose who to take to the end. For Jerkicho, based on last weeks numbers, he can beat them all. Peter should be able to beat MT in a final two.
The possibility that Locky could realistically win every immunity between now and the end is something that should be factored in though. How on earth do you manage that spanner (yes, by spanner I do mean both that this scenario would be a ‘spanner in the works’, and that Locky is a tool)?

Tickle The Boxes

365E632E-2364-4E81-A4D0-744CE60BA75F — ***That he couldn’t see that he was asking of Michelle exactly what he refused to do for Michelle speaks volumes regarding his ego.***

“MY GIRLS!!!” This two word utterance from Locky tells you everything you need to know about the chauvinistic, entitled, domineering, arrogant way he has played this game. Fuck me I hope he doesn’t win. I’ll admit that he is very good at challenges, and tonight, unsurprisingly he showed he was good at spinning shit. But that is where any credit I give him ends. He’s shat me since day one, and to be honest has been lucky to make it this far. I’d love for someone out there to count just how many times he voted the wrong way at tribal (let me know below).
Unfortunately, based on last week’s analysis, and now that Ziggy is out of the picture, if he makes the final two at this point, he is a shoo in. So as I’ve alluded to above, the first thought in the minds of the other four is, and should be, getting rid of Locky. Each of these four though also needs to do their best to convince Locky that they will solidly vote with him in the event he continues to win, and hope that he chooses them to take to the end. And I’ll say it one more time just so that nobody could possibly misunderstand, EVERYONE SHOULD BE HUNTING FOR IDOLS!

Before I go I will quickly note how impressed I was with the pressure that P, J & M applied to Tara at tribal council. Without this directed focussed pressure, she arguably would have voted the other way. But P, J & M were savvy enough to realise that if they Turned up the hit on the T-Bone, pretty soon she would be ready to flip.

Well, that ought to be enough from me for now, time to take my antibiotics, put on a Survivor podcast, and drift off to sleep. I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 21 – ‘Buddy System’ OR ‘Getting Wood’

Need a sugar rush before you hit this analysis? Read the previous episodes analysis here!

3E6288E5-CA6D-4904-87C1-7975EA8DCCAC — ***When Luke says this he gets a pat on the back and a free meal, When I do it I get slapped with an AVO and my mugshot taken.***

Fasten your seatbelts. Tonight is a bumpy ride and you don’t want to be thrown from the vehicle. With all the talk this episode about who you might want to go to the end with, I thought it was about time we examined the potential Jury votes.

Below I have laid out the order of preference in which each member of the Jury will vote to win (for example, if Peter and Jerkicho were the final two. Jarrad would vote for Peter, however if Locky and Peter were final two, Jarrad would vote for Locky):

Jarrad: Ziggy, Locky, Peter, Tara, Jerkicho, Michelle
Anneliese: Ziggy, Locky, Peter, Michelle, Jerkicho, Tara
Henry: Locky, Ziggy, Jerkicho, Michelle, Peter, Tara
Tessa: Ziggy, Locky, Peter, Jerkicho, Michelle, Tara
Sarah: Jerkicho, Ziggy, Tara, Michelle, Peter, Locky
Luke: Jerkicho, Locky, Ziggy, Michelle, Peter, Tara
Jerkicho: Locky, Ziggy, Michelle, Peter, Tara
Locky: Ziggy, Jerkicho, Tara, Peter, Michelle
Michelle: Jerkicho, Locky, Peter, Ziggy, Tara
Peter: Ziggy, Jerkicho, Locky, Michelle, Tara
Tara: Ziggy, Peter, Michelle, Jerkicho, Locky
Ziggy: Locky, Jerkicho, Peter, Michelle, Tara

I have to say I don’t feel particularly confident with these rankings. I have no idea how well Peter and Jerkicho will argue their game in the final tribal, and there’s some people who I am uncertain about when it comes to how they will vote on the Jury (eg Jarrad and Ziggy). Let me know what you would change in the comments.

Based on these numbers, Tara can’t win. Michelle can only beat Tara. Peter can only beat Tara and Michelle. Jerkicho and Locky will beat each of these three, but will draw against each other (I don’t know what happens in a tie vote when it’s a final two, can anyone fill me in?). If Ziggy makes it to final two she will win.

The above might help guide us as we break down tonight’s episode.

A Big Annoying Thing

CB6A55F2-F028-4541-8B4A-7D6B3166D62E — ***I never get sick of watching this.***

I don’t want to spend too much time talking about what Tara did or didn’t do tonight (I don’t think I’ve ever cringed as much watching reality television as I did tonight, but I’ve never watched The Bachelor/ette) as she’s the only person that based on the above cannot win this game. I was surprised that she told Ziggy about moving against Locky. At first I put it down to her not having any idea about how to play this game. It turned out that Ziggy seemed to be receptive to the idea (‘seemed to be’, damn she’s hard to read) so the egg was on my face. My thinking was that once she had Luke and Jerkicho she only needed one other, and Peter or Michelle seemed to be more likely to follow that plan. Again, based on the above, IF there is a remote shot T-Bone could win, it could only be against Peter or Michelle, so it would make sense to bring one of those two guys in rather than the one other person who is ostensibly in an alliance with the person you are trying to remove. Whatever, I said I don’t want to talk too much T-Bone and I don’t. So I best just leave it there other than to briefly discuss her moral dilemma. I’m glad she took the lollies (of course she would), I would have done the same at this point in the game, though I did wonder if lollybreath would be hard to mask out there. Initially I couldn’t understand why she chose Ziggy to share with. Upon further consideration I understand why you might want to give sugar to the one person who has a shot at beating your target in an immunity challenge. I doubt that is what T-Bone was thinking though.

Michelle ‘n’ Man

1FCC4ADE-DAE4-4612-82B5-8A79BD372496 — ***‘A’ stands for ‘asking Peter what to do’***

Was taking out Luke the best move for Michelle and Peter tonight? It seemed that Michelle was just happy to go with the numbers, looking to Peter thoughout tribal for ani indication on which way he’d vote. My heart says no, I would have personally preferred to see Ziggy go over Luke. But my head says, I don’t know. I’m torn between taking the opportunity to remove an immunity threat (take out Ziggy), and, taking the opportunity to split up Jerkicho and Luke (such a strong pair are only going to become more powerful as the numbers dwindle). At this stage I’m leaning toward breaking up Luke and Jerkicho. In a game of ‘buddies’, if you can keep a strong two person alliance and break down other two-person alliances, you’re doing well. Disabling the Luke and Jerkicho alliance arguably puts Peter and Michelle in the strongest position in the game, numbers-wise. They will be of use when Locky and Ziggy go at each other next episode (admittedly a weak assumption, and given their history I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to work together, I would still say unlikely though), so they should get through at least one more tribal. That puts them in the final five, they get one person with them and they’re in the final four. That’s a 50/50 shot of making the finale. I hope for their sake they can appreciate the power that they have at the moment, and wield it effectively.

A Straight Up Rascal

26512963-969D-4FBE-81DC-CBCC76EDAF1D — ***Still wiping off cookie crumbs…***

We are now staring down the barrel of a potential Jerkicho win. That’s how terrible this season has become. If you had told me at episode 9 or 10 (when did AK go?), that this would be our top 6, I would not have believed you. Well here we are, and I am not happy. I’ve always said that one of the things I love about Survivor is that there is no right or wrong way to play (despite my regular advice to the contrary), that the results justify the means, if you happen to win (Survivor is one of the few games where a player who comes second did not necessarily play a better game than the person who came third, or tenth). A winner has outplayed, outwitted, and outlasted everyone else, it doesn’t matter how they get there, they deserve to win. That’s the beauty of the Jury system. Having said all that, I am extremely disappointed in this top 6. Last season we lost our most deserving player at the time in Brooke, episode 21 as well. At least then we still had Flick for a couple of episodes. It has me questioning whether there is something about the Australian format that has us come to this situation, an underwhelming top 6. Let me know if you have any thoughts about flaws in the current format in the comments.

Back to the gameplay. Obviously without Luke, Jerkicho is vulnerable. I do see him as an immunity threat, I wonder if his opponents do too. For him now it’s important that he get rid of Ziggy and Locky ASAP, so he can win immunities into the final two. I would argue that for him to do that he needs to lose the next immunity, then side with the winner (assuming it is Locky or Ziggy) to vote against the loser. Let them do all the work, creating a bigger target for their back next tribal should they lose immunity. Unfortunately he really is a solid shot to win this game, if he can provide a solid argument at the final tribal. I’d love to talk at length here about Jerkicho’s use of metaphor at tribal. Not just in terms of entertainment, but from a strategic point of view, but it’s a longer discussion I’ll leave for another time.

Thinking it Through Logilocky

With Ziggy at most likely to win if she makes it to final two, it goes without saying that it behooves Locky to remove Ziggy ASAP. So should he have gone for Ziggy tonight instead of Luke? I don’t think so. By targeting Luke he damages Jerkicho’s power (the only other person who could possibly beat him) and can now use Jerkicho to help him remove Ziggy. Luke was also more likely than Ziggy to persuade Michelle to work their way. He still has a huge target on his back, and we know he’s not so well liked by T-Bone. I don’t know what his path to the final two looks like. I suspect that the first immunity he loses, he’s going home. If you see another way for him, lay it out for me below.

Zig in a Poke

***Actual footage of Ziggy looking for a buddy***

Unbeatable in the final two, Ziggy will have her work cut out for her to get there. I’m going to suggest a perhaps risky play for her, and that is to convince Locky or Jerkicho to take her to the end. While the above numbers suggest that she can beat these two, they are the riskiest opponents to go against. However, as arrogant as they are, they are also the people most likely to believe that they can beat her. I can’t see Michelle or Peter thinking they can beat her, and T-Bone has only just figured out what a goat is. Of course her best bet is to continue winning immunity, failing that, the above suggestion is as good as any. She should at least feel out whether it is feasible. If it’s clear that it’s not, move on to aligning with the other three to buy her a little time and hope that she at least wins immunities where it counts. Before I get off Zig I must mention how much I liked the way she framed to T-Bone what they should do once Locky won immunity. By framing the play by saying they need to keep around people who could beat Locky in immunity challenges, she leveraged T-Bone’s distaste for Locky while simultaneously protecting herself. It was sweeter than a jar of party mix.

Aloha Luke

1C117255-708F-4053-9A57-9DE587001C76 — ***He’s certainly going all the way somewhere***

I know I maligned his strategy last episode, to use a friend’s line, it was ‘short-sighted and simplistic’, but it got him to the point where he was the most deserving player left in the game, which is probably why he went. Was there much he could do to save himself? I’m sure many will argue that leaving Michelle out of the loop is what saw him go home tonight. I would disagree. I think that he just didn’t work her hard enough after doing so. And I did love the way he and Jerkicho made T-Bone feel like it was her big move to take out Locky. I’m sad to see him go. He was damn entertaining. Because of him I’ll never be able to ask people how to spell their names at tribal council (that was a joke I was saving for if I ever played), the bastard.

Remember that US Survivor starts Thursday. Online on 9Now from 3pm, or watch on free to air television at 7:30. I’m looking forward to a fun season. Until next week, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Tara’s getting better at impressions, this is her ‘drunk football playing moth’

Episode 20 – ‘Michelle Shocked’ OR ‘Once Bitten, Twice ‘Chelle’

Where to start on tonight’s episode? When the highlight of the episode is charades you know there’s not too much strategy to talk about. A snack pack of popcorn chicken is meatier than this episode. Let’s not get in a flap about it though, I fuggin LOVED the charades. I don’t know that I’ve ever laughed so hard at reality television before. Has T-Bone ever seen an octopus or a moth? Well done Channel Ten/Endemol Shine. You’ve really brought your A game to the challenges this season. Although I do question the immunity challenge in this episode. Can anyone tell me if we’ve ever seen this type of head to head tournament for individual immunity before? I don’t like it. It’s much more suited to reward or tribal immunity. Anyway, that’s enough talk about Survivor the show, let’s talk about Survivor the game.

Sarah. Sarah. No Time is a Good Time for Goodbyes

DAB1A218-CFF7-4BEE-8139-7E849ED681C9 — ***Actual footage of a cat about to drown.***

This result is completely down to Sarah’s social game. Sarah told everyone this episode not to be emotional, but emotional intelligence is exactly what she needed tonight. I’m not suggesting that Sarah is a cold person in general. I don’t know if the stress and the game is getting to her. But a bucket of nuggets could see that Michelle needed more engagement than what Sarah gave her. I don’t want to get into the previous episode too much or I’ll be writing until dawn, but had I posted analysis last night, I would have agreed with Luke’s assessment not to tell Michelle what was happening regarding the Tessa vote. That agreement though would have come with caveats. That either she is told directly before, or at, tribal council, or failing that, that she is bought back into the fold ASAP post tribal council. Now Sarah told us during tribal that she did try talking to Michelle after the decision. The conversation that we did see (THE NEXT DAY!) between Michelle and Sarah was as awkward as the joke T-Bone tried to tell before the reward challenge.

AE39560C-B688-431B-A202-7098DF08A897 — ***The reward may have been for KFC, but this was no Zinger…***

The conversation basically went the way of Michelle telling her alliance that she felt hurt and betrayed and couldn’t trust them further. To which Sarah responded by coldly trying to tell Michelle why she was wrong, and why this is better for her. You can’t logic someone’s emotions away, it doesn’t work. The only way to change emotion is to connect emotionally. Then once Michelle feels heard to understood, then she can listen to the logic of your plan. Hell, you don’t even need to try and convince her of the logic or the game plan. You need her as a number, let her feel that you’ll do whatever she wants on the next vote. Once it was clear to everyone that Michelle was unhappy and likely to flip, it was game over for Sarah, there was little she could do, the numbers became unassailable. If there was any sentiment in Samatau that they may be willing to vote Michelle, Sarah did not do her best to bolster it. She actually never made a case that it should be Michelle. I guess during tribal she was still trying to hide from Michelle that her name was on the chopping block, but what she should have been doing is undermining Michelle and detailing how unpredictable and emotional she is, and therefore a liability in this game. To be honest though, I don’t think it would have helped. At this stage of the game people will always take out a threat before they take out an easy vote. Particulalry if they can have that easy vote vote with them in future tribals. Tessa made a well-articulated point in the previous tribal. That is that it’s important to understand what is good for your opponents game and what is in their best interests. It seems Sarah completely missed that. Luke and Jerkicho knew it, making it a seven vote landslide against Sarah. The other option she has once she knows her name is on the chopping block (and it seemed pretty clear to her it was) is to present an even juicier target than Michelle or herself, Ziggy. You don’t even need Michelle for that, all you need is Luke, Jerkicho, Tara, and Peter. That could have been worth a shot. Perhaps knowing that Michelle was gunning for her actually did affect her emotionally, and did not allow her to see that there were other moves ahead than retaliating against Michelle.

Big Bash Luke

7BF76094-E775-40E5-9736-2602D4B45A3D — ***GIF captioner got it wrong, what he actually sang was “I know Asaga will get on your nerves”, and he was singing to Michelle…***

Luke did somewhat better than Sarah in placating Michelle. Firstly he approached her directly after tribal. During this interaction, unlike Sarah, he engaged with her emotionally, looked her in the eye. It looked like he apologised. And for his part during the above in tent conversation with his alliance, he literally lay down, and let Sarah take the heat. He and Jerkicho were also smart enough to realise that there was no changing her mind, and that voting against her would only damage the relationship they need with her, particularly now that Sarah is gone. So what can they do now? I don’t know that I’ve discussed this before but often thought it; Luke’s strategy seems to be take down whoever he sees as the biggest threat whenever he can. I can’t really argue with that strategy, he’s made it this far, and could actually win the game with it. And I hate to say it, but of the seven players we now have remaining, he’s probably most deserving. Just a smidge above Ziggy. Oh gee that’s a sad thought, considering the caliber of some of the players we started with. Anyway, my point is that I don’t think he considers the ramifications of his actions beyond the immediate. This was clear for the Tessa vote. While I’m sure he sees Sarah as an eventual threat, he needed her for at least one more vote. So I am surprised he didn’t try harder to get the vote off her and try and shift it toward Ziggy as suggested above. I guess it was too late to put in all the work required to pull that off. Anyway, Luke’s and Jerkicho’s best bet now is with both Michelle and Peter in the game, move on Locky and Ziggy. They need to be split, now. Admittedly, if Locky and Ziggy are still around two more votes then they’ll likely turn on each other (again in Ziggy’s case). They can’t wait for this to happen, because I’ve no doubt that Luke and Jerkicho are in Locky’s and Ziggy’s sights. Speaking of Ziggy, how ‘bout that idol play?

Gettin’ Ziggy With(out) It

C00C21EA-A83E-4751-B273-50F9D9EF9B22 — *Whatever* KFC *paid to have their products on Survivor, it was worth it for this GIF…* K-Fucking Ching

I don’t blame her at all for playing her immunity idol. I think it’s more indicative of her paranoia than it is of any poor game-awareness. Things are at fever pitch, there’s blindside’s coming left, right and centre. While you wouldn’t say that the previous tribal went against her, she was just as blind-sided by it as Tessa was. I’d be jumpy too. Of course she’d be better off keeping it, but I’d much rather look like a fool playing it when I didn’t need to and staying in the game, than not playing it when I had it and being booted out. She’s a target with or without it. Without the safety buffer it affords her though, she really needs a friend. Hello Peter! We really are in a situation where we have power players, and their goats. Locky has Tara (for now). Locky and Jerkicho have Michelle. Peter is a goat without a home. Ziggy can be that home. From there it’s a matter of splitting Luke and Jerkicho, then taking out Locky. Easier said than done, but certainly easier if you have Peter in your pocket. This may not suit Peter though.

Playing it for Himself

66E7EFCD-AE0E-448B-A1BC-0DA4052FA65A — ***Totes homo***

I loved Peter telling Ziggy to play the idol for Michelle. If he was sincere, it does suggest that his maths is not great. Either he suspects that Locky or Tara were voting against Michelle (unlikely), or he played it for the reason I hope he played it for, to make Michelle believe that he is with her. There are very few people he can beat in a tribal council, so he needs to work with Tara and Michelle. As I did last year at around this point, I’ll run through these numbers in more detail in the next post. Before I go though…

“I’m not being emotional, I’m just hurt and pissed off and disappointed”

***….and now we’ve seen The Hangover 4…***

Oh Michelle. This is terrible play. She really is blinded by her emotions. Yes, she was left out of a big decision, but now she has one less ally. It’s not all bad though. She hasn’t completely burned her bridges with Luke and Jerkicho. And while Locky and Ziggy will drop her without a second thought once they feel she’s no longer useful, Peter is still an option for her. I can’t even begin to think where T-Bone sits in all this though. I have no idea what her game plan is other than to do whatever Locky says, and if we are to believe the preview for the next episode, then it seems she won’t be doing that much longer anyway. If we believe the preview.

I think that’s going to have to do for this post. I know I haven’t talked much about Locky, but that’s mostly just because I couldn’t think of a Locky/Loggy pun funny enough to be worthy of inclusion. Perhaps I need to ask T-Bone for some tips. Hopefully Locky is still about after the next episode so that I can spend some time contemplating the future of his game. Until then, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

809DA8BC-FCF0-47AC-B1ED-566838F3B30F — ***OK, just one more… DO DO DO The Funky Gibbon***

Episode 17 – ‘Cookie Alliance Rides Again’ OR ‘Where’s the Jam? Scone by Daylight’

Don’t get caught saying the ‘F’ word, get the lowdown on the lead up to this episode by checking out the previous analysis here!

***Just after this T-Bone literally said “if somebody flops a bit, it’s dangerous”. That’s what my ex-wife used to say too…***

Welcome to one of the most entertaining episodes this season. From hijinx to strategy this episode had it all. Let’s not waste time in the preamble, let’s get straight into the biggest talking point.

Wish In One Hand, Dirt In The Other

Holy shit!! Was this the first time we have ever seen anybody get the same idol twice? This was delicious television. More importantly, it was great social and strategic gameplay from Zenry. Having given Jerkicho the clue, there was always going to be the risk that Jerkicho (and therefore others at old Asaga) thought that Zenry had kept the idol for himself. What he has pulled off here is nothing short of inspired. This negates the effect of any suspicion while strengthening the bond they have. Pure genius.
After Jerkicho’s sneaky underlining of Jarrad’s name last episode, this is exactly what this viewer needed to see. Egg on Jerkicho’s face. The other thing that was on Jerkicho’s face, was Jam.

Conserving Your Energy (you read that correctly, I went there)

***Even to a self-professed Luke/Jerkicho detractor, this scene was finger-lickin good***

For those who’ve read me analysis before, I’ve often pondered whether the stealing of the food is worth the risk. Usually I’ve sided the way of, if you’re reasonably certain you can get away with it, and you are a good liar, then go for it. I’m a terrible liar, so for me to do it I would need to make sure that nobody even knew it was gone. The Cookie Alliance (sans Sarah) were all over this like the CWA on a scone. I suspect that Jerkicho and Luke’s motivation was just to have some cheeky fun. For Zenry, it was all about continuing to strengthen the bond with the guys. He also was quick to see the value in letting it become the annoying mosquito at the BBQ. Let this controversy get stuck in the craw of those galahs who are still scrambling to find their footing post merge. He didn’t stoke the fire, he didn’t need to, but he was more than happy to let it keep burning. Would he have decided to eat the jam by himself? Unlikely, he has too much to lose. If they were discovered he has two other jokers who can share the load of the rest of the tribe’s ire. I guess the risk though is that it outs them as a strong alliance. I guess one could always argue say that it was just about the food. I guess I should probably get away from background gameplay now and actually start discussing the immediate gameplay and it’s outcome.

Faking My Harlequin

Firstly, I don’t really think of Anneliese as a ‘harlequin’, I just wanted to take the opportunity to throw in a Robert Pollard reference (rock out here). Back to the game, and specifically Anneliese’s game. I have to say I’m really sad to see her go. I also feel that I deserve egg on my face after being so high on her position in the previous episode’s analysis. In my defence, there were a number of things we didn’t know. Primarily, her relationship with Locky and Zenry. Previous post I asked why Locky and Zenry left Anneliese out of the Jarrad vote. What it seems like actually happened, was that they did approach her, and she chose not to vote with them. This appear to be her fatal mistake. I’ve been going over and over in my head whether I had known this information yesterday I would have advised her to work with Locky and Zenry, or stick with Samatau. Unfortunately I can’t un-know knowing that she went home tonight, and so there’s no way I can objectively say what I would have suggested in that situation. This is why I love Survivor so much, it’s such a dynamic game. It’s also what frustrates me about watching it. That I’m not there playing it with them.

Before I get off Anneliese I need to talk about the fake conversation. When Locky asked Anneliese if he could have his idol, my first thought was that she should absolutely tell him that she would play it for him at tribal. We sure as hell know from her POV that this is a fake conversation, we don’t know that Locky feels the same way though. I suspect that Locky is so wrapped up in his own ego that he could not help but believe that were it offered to him. It was at least worth a try. If she’s not worried about losing his vote, there’s no reason not to lie to him in this way. If it didn’t have any effect on his plans, it would not have negatively impacted her game any further. It may have been just enough to placate him a little and perhaps we would not have ended up in a situation where Ziggy felt that it would be necessary to play her Super-Idol. Speaking of Ziggy, I feel somewhat responsible for tonight’s outcome.

Devilish Handling of an Idol Play Thing

***“I’d like to walk like a supermodel please”***

You may remember that in the previous analysis I suggested that the best move from Ziggy would be to align with Locky. Obviously she reads my shit. So obviously I think this was the right move for Ziggy. Some may argue that it was a waste of a Super-Idol. That it should be saved for a greater threat later in the game, and when her neck is on the chopping block. I disagree. I think the Super-Idol was a burden, and to get rid of it in a way that solidifies a bond when you need one is a great way to play. Quick clarification if anyone can help me out. Is Ziggy still left with a regular idol? I was confused when the Super-Idol was introduced, I wasn’t sure if it had the power tonight, plus regular idol power, and whether these two powers had to be used in the same tribal or not. If you know, fill me in in the comments. Regardless, old Samatau was a sinking boat. She didn’t really have a choice but to flip. This is however going to make things interesting within the new majority. Zenry has already made his feelings for Ziggy known, so it’s only a matter of time that he goes for her. From here she is going to have to find a new target, one that Locky can get behind. Likely Michelle. Given that Tessa is probably going to vote that way too, it makes sense to me.

Let’s Tess-ellate

***“Scratch that, what’s the singular of ‘friends’?”***

I can’t recall whether it was Tessa or Pete that turned to the other post eviction and said something along the lines of “guess it’s just me and you now”. It’s sad. I’m a big Tess fan and she is really up against it now. In the previous analysis I suggested that Tessa should, and probably would, find a trouble-maker to throw under the balls. For now she needs to identify who that person is that people think is dodgy AF, and systematically gather up all the shade she can throw it their way. I suspect that person will be Michelle. I’m hoping it’s Jerkicho or T-Bone (incidentally did anyone else think it ironic when T-Bone said “`it’s been too easy” after (seemingly) sitting by the fire all day while everyone else scrambled and maneuvered to push through the game). It could even be Sarah. I know I haven’t touched on old Asaga much this episode, we didn’t see much of them. But one thing is for sure, they can only stay out of the shadows for so long, especially with Tess looking to get herself out of a sticky situation. Perhaps there is the clue for who she needs to target. Those with sticky (jam covered) fingers.

Keep #jamgate alive!!!! Until tomorrow, I’ve got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 16 – ‘Payback is a Bub’ OR ‘Summer(Tau) Lovin, Happened So Fast’

Don’t start the merge in a jam, get all the up to date pre-merge analysis here.

***You know that’s not how war works right Jerkicho?***

This is why we love the merge. Going in to tribal I had no idea of the way this was going to go, just as coming in to this merge I did not know where the alliances stood. Now that we have our first post-merge tribal under our belt, we have a better idea what the moving parts are and which way they’re moving. Let’s see if we can actually articulate these below.

Underlining Strategy

***Irony is a dish best served delicious…***

I must say I was surprised to see Jarrad move so forcefully so soon after the merge. Though we’ve not seen a hell of a lot of Jarrad over the last 15 episodes, I had the impression that his gameplay would be more subtle than what we saw tonight. Generally the way to play going in to the merge is to lay low and watch what happens. So to see Jarrad of all people try to make a move was surprising and clearly didn’t go so well for him. I can understand and appreciate the thinking behind it, to strike before he sees it coming. He’d obviously been thinking it for some time and was waiting for his opportunity to go for it. And I agree that it would be a great dot point on the resume. Unfortunately this is classic over-confidence bias at work. He wants something to happen, and instead of looking at all the things that could go wrong, if he knew them he ignored them because the temptation was so great. It was this overconfidence that had him thinking that Locky would be with him. While Jarrad did show some awareness of the flaws in his game in his post exit blurb over credits, it’s a shame for him that he didn’t have this awareness of what was going on around him as it was happening.

Flippin’ Plankers

Jarrad wasn’t the only one I thought was falling prey to overconfidence bias. When Zenry started talking about it being time to start ‘making decisions’ I was worried that he might be the one getting overexcited. Again, I didn’t necessarily diasagree with his decision that Ziggy was dangerous and needed to go. My current assessment as to why he was successful in influencing Locky, while Jarrad and Tessa weren’t, was in their approaches. Tessa particularly showed great awareness of her opponents’ characters in her understanding that Locky needed his ego stroked and to be made to feel important in order to keep him under control. However, in actually discussing the way forward with Locky and getting his opinion, she was forthright with him about what they needed to do (To Target Luke. We were given the impression that there had already been a discussion with Locky re targeting Zenry, unfortunately we don’t know the details). Zenry on the other hand made Locky feel important. While he was urgent in his plea to Locky to come with him, he did it in a way that made Locky feel important and that they were doing this together. Tessa and other Samatauans wanted Locky along for the ride, Zenry made Locky think he was in the driving seat.

Of course it is worth noting that Zenry had spent most of his time at Samatau forming a bond with Locky, whereas the rest of Samatau had not done so at all. I can’t recall ever seeing Jarrad have a conversation with Locky, and during the early days it was pretty clear that Locky and Tessa were amicably not aligned with one another. Locky was not the only one who needs their ego stroked.

MicHellion

***I wonder which side he would have supported in the last world war?***

Damn that scene where Michelle confronted Tessa about not being kept in the loop was awkward. You could see Tessa trying to hold back the words that were coming out of her mouth and cringing at how they sounded. Effectively telling Michelle she was on the bottom of the alliance if she was in it at all. Was it the right move for Michelle to flip? I believe so. Both she and Locky knew that Tessa, Jarrad, Pete, and Ziggy were tight and unlikely to be persuaded to split and form sub-alliances with either of them. It looks like Locky could have an offsider in Michelle now. As much as I’m sick of seeing Locky take for granted his harem of fawning women, I hope for his sake he realises that Michelle has joined his stable. I’m more interested in seeing Michelle get as much out of this union as she can before ditching his arrogant arse.

Sucky Situation

***🎵Brother, brother, brother, there’s far too many of you dying…🎵***

So what can old Samatau do now that it seems the numbers are against them? Shit, I really don’t know. Individually, it might be best for each of them to start looking at other options. I feel Ziggy has the charm to be able to get back in Locky’s good books, I could be very wrong about that though. She needs to start finding her new wing-person that’s for sure. Who that will be I don’t know. If you’ve got a suggestion, share below.
I have zero idea where Anneliese stands. The good news for her is that she has options. Up until this vote I thought she was with Zenry and Locky. If they really are together I suspect Locky did not have time to talk to her as he really did decide at tribal or just before, and that Zenry did not want to risk a leak. She is actually in a great position, an idol in her hand, only one person that knows (I think just Zenry right), no enemies, and potential allies all around her. I couldn’t tell you her best move now, she doesn’t need to make a positive decision yet. She can just hang and see how things shake out.
Tessa too has her work cut out for her. Having never been to Asaga and forming relationships with them, Tara harbouring old grudges, never fostering a relationship with Zenry, and showing slightly less than contempt for Michelle. Things don’t look good. She and Peter need to come up with something quick. If I were Tess, my play would be less about hitching my wagon to a strong ally, and more about finding a target to undermine. Perhaps Tara again, or even Ziggy. Whatever the case, I can see Tess and Pete scrambling next episode. Oh how the tables have turned.

Swinger’s Party

The other thing I want to briefly discuss before I snuff the flame on the torch of this post, is the reward ‘twist’ and the dilemma it creates. My first question is have we ever seen somebody actually choose the selfish option? I don’t ever recall anybody ever taking the selfish option. So I have no idea how that works out historically (comment below if you have ever seen a season where somebody does take the selfish option). I’ve seen plenty of occasions where somebody takes the altruistic option and is voted out next. I think that if you’re already in players’ bad books, sharing reward won’t get you out of those books. I see the point about while you would have the advantages over your opponents of having eaten, feeling clean and refreshed, and the motivation that comes with having read letters from home, the guilt at having not shared the love with everyone you live with may completely disrupt one’s game and drain any energy gained from your reward. I’d love to know how much a decision like this would change the game. Incidentally I do wonder had she taken the selfish option, how many other players, if any she could have taken with her. Were I faced with this situation that knowledge would definitely influence my decision. Regardless, I suspect my humanity would get the better of me and I would take the altruistic option.
It goes without saying that this scene had me blubbering as it always does. One thing that did cross my mind as I was watching the challenge was how much more emotional and suspenseful it would be if those letters were knocked off the balance beam and directly into the fire. Harsh. Let’s leave this post with that thought. I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 8 – ‘Twist and Shout’ OR ‘Getting Ziggy With It’

Ever feel like you’ve dacked an idol clue only to discover it was a manicure set? Don’t get your short and curlies caught in the razor, read how we got here, here.

***Stuck in the middle. With you (at least until next tribal)***

Much like Luke’s pubes, tonight’s analysis is going to be short and, er, sweet.
All hail Queen Ziggy! Tonight Ziggy gave us a masterclass in Survivor. I must admit I was worried for a while there that this would turn out differently. But cooler heads prevailed. How did she do it? Let’s not beat around the shaved ballsack, let’s sink our teeth into it (the episode that is, not the scrotum).

Zig or Zag

***“(AK) will only lay down his life to save his own life” – Quote of the episode***

Our first look at Samatau tonight once again presented us with a downtrodden Locky and T-Bone trying to piece together some way of forming a majority alliance. Clearly they don’t read my analysis because I’ve been saying for weeks that the only hope for them as individuals is to abandon each other. Of course, they’re too proud to flip to the majority alliance, that would mean admitting defeat. So they (let’s be honest here Locky was the only one doing anything) hatch a plan to influence Ziggy to flip. I was a little confused when they did this since that would leave the numbers at a 4-4 split, How stupid was I not to think that splitting the votes could be on the cards. It seems I wasn’t the only stupid one as neither T-Bone nor Locky made any play to influence the majority alliance to do that let alone think that it could happen (at least not that we were shown). Ziggy to her credit, at least entertains the possibility. We know now of course that she was lying to Anneliese, T-Bone and Locky, but I do believe that she did not dismiss their proposal initially. That she took the time to consider this option. I suspect it didn’t take much consideration before she made the decision that this was not her best move. And from there, well, the way she had the others, particularly Anneliese, thinking that she was with them was nothing less than inspired.

“MARCO?”…”ANNELIESE!” (you thought I was going to say polo, that’s why this particular joke works on multiple levels (oh yeah I am that clever))

***“So glad we’re together AnneLIES. Whoops, didn’t mean to drop the ‘e’. I’m sorry AnneLIES. Ooh I keep saying ‘lies'”***

In a game of ‘big moves’, sometimes it’s the little things that make a good Survivor player. Like limiting your interactions with T-Bone on the pretext that it would make her real alliance suspicious. Like sitting directly between Locky and AK at tribal council (I choose to believe this was a deliberate and strategic move). And most impressive at all, announcing to the rest of her alliance that she was voting Anneliese in the surprise vote, so that they may follow her lead. Incidentally, do you think that they actually had a chance to talk before having to make that surprise vote? I’d be shocked if someone didn’t at least ask if they could. I know I’d certainly ask the question.

***Let’s hope there’s more than one razor***

Back to our Stardust woman. Why was this the best move for Ziggy?
At present she has a good thing going with her fivesome. While it would be naïve not to acknowledge that somebody must be on the bottom, or at the very least that some people are in stronger position than others, there’s nothing that has me thinking that Zig is particularly weak within that fivesome. There’s no doubt in my mind that had she jumped ship, she would most definitely be on the bottom of her new foursome. Admittedly AK is a threat strategically, but he’s also a bloody good meat-shield (is there a better term for that than meat-shield, particularly when the threat is not so much physical but strategic? Threat-magnet? If you’ve got a good one let me know in the comments). I can’t see anyone (other than AK) gunning for Ziggy if AK’s still around posing a threat. Not to mention that Ziggy would put a big target on her balls making such a big move at this point. Locky told her to sit pretty, and that’s exactly what she’s doing.

T… Boned

***“Maybe they’ll have ice-cream on Exile Island…”***

Just when we thought this particular cut of meat was going to get the chop, she’s thrown a lifeline. Dammit. Tara did absolutely nothing to save herself this episode, or the episodes previous. If she were on Asaga I’ve no doubt that she would have been counted in Zenry’s useless basket. If I cared for T-Bone I might give her some advice here. The reality is of course that she’s unlikely to listen to it, and she is never going to win anyway. She’s not playing the game, she doesn’t understand the game, and frankly she comes across as a sook. I don’t care for her. If I did, my advice would be you’ve been given a second shot here, make like AK and show some humility, maybe you’ll actually bond with someone, and then do your best to stay out of the crosshairs (and Lukehairs).

Bridge Over Muddied Waters

Usually I’d spend the rest of the analysis breaking down what I think each of the remaining players from tonight’s tribal council should do next. However, with a shake up looming I don’t see much point in tailoring advice to individuals, so I’ll just say, play it cool to everyone. The last thing you want to do is shake things up now. Let someone else stick their neck in the guillotine. If the shuffle opens options for you, absolutely do what you can to assess those options, but don’t act yet. Solidify your current bonds (if they remain), allow new relationships to develop (I believe this was Andy’s downfall last season. Prior to the shuffle you could see him socialising with everyone in his tribe, post-shuffle he did not talk to some new tribemates at all), and keep a low profile. For some of course, this will be easier than others. I’m looking at you Luke and Jerkicho.

Every day I’m Shuffling

Wow, I’ve made it this far and haven’t even criticised the twist. My thoughts on what I see as production ‘tricking’ players are by now well established. If somehow you don’t know where I stand check here. When J-LaP introduced the immunity challenge I noted that he did not say “I’ll see you at tribal council where someone will be going home”, instead he said “voted out”. I don’t know if this is the first time he’s said that this season. If there’s anyone out there who knows or is willing to make the effort to go back through the season and check, I’d be interested to hear from you in the comments. When he said that tonight I wondered if anyone would ever front him on that and directly ask him if people were being sent home at tribal. I don’t expect he’d give a direct answer, but you’d know something was up. Ultimately I don’t think this knowledge would have changed the strategy in terms of voting against T-Bone. But knowing that you were voting twice certainly would have made things more interesting.

***J – “I want to take myself to bed” M – “I can feel myself again” – Runner up quotes of the episode.***

I know it’s been a mostly Asaga-less analysis here, but there wasn’t much happening over there worth analysing to be honest, particularly with a shuffle on our hands. So until next episode, I got nothing for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 6 – ‘Running The Show’ OR ‘Smarter Than The Average Yogi’

If you’re wondering why there’s a lamington on the BBQ you’re not alone, and the previous episode’s analysis won’t help you understand that, but it will help you understand what’s going on with our players.

Which Sam is the better detective?

Finally we see some Asaga. I was getting sick of seeing cookies whenever we checked in with them. But now there’s some action on our hands. Well at least as much action as you’re going to get when the votes are split 9-2. Anyway, let’s make like Tara’s mental fortitude and break (it) down.

Throwing Challengers

***Zenry’s had plenty of practice throwing things…***

OK, in the past I’ve spoken at length about where I stand regarding throwing challenges, so I won’t dwell on it too much. Generally speaking, I think throwing challenges is a stupid move. It rarely works well. It’s especially unnecessary when there’s likely a merge/shuffle around the corner. What exactly were Zenry’s motivations for doing so? Was it because he felt Sam was on to him? We know from a few episodes ago that Sam certainly didn’t trust his alliance with Jacqui. Which is on his own head for making his alliance too obvious.

*“You heard me wrong guys. I never said ‘*Yoga Teacher’*, I said ‘*Yoghurt Eater'”

So if he was worried about Sam outing him as a more strategic player than he’s purporting to be, is the answer to that to strategically mastermind her shafting? Sounds counterintuitive to me. To be fair though, we didn’t actually see him pulling the strings. How exactly did word get around, does he have his own troops to do that bidding? (Incidentally where is Jericho’s cookie army?) If he did manage to make this happen without putting this target on his back, then he’s a better player than I give him credit for. Also, why is it that we say people put a target on their back, when it’s their head that ends up on the chopping block? Methinks it’s about time we started using some less stale Survivor cliches.
Back to the gameplay. Not only did he throw the challenge but he did so by putting himself in the clutch position at the challenge. Now that’s really playing knifey/spoony with your balls (maybe that will catch on #testicularknifeyspoony).
However with such a landslide victory it’s possible that Zenry was pretty certain that he had the numbers, making throwing the challenge less of a risk for him. Still, I’m not convinced the reward justifies the risk. If it was so easy for Zenry to turn the tribe against Sam, I don’t suspect that Sam would have done been able to turn the tribe against Zenry had their tribal council appearance come three or six days later. So again, not worth the risk. Asaga is also left with a pissed bulldog in ComMarkdo (eh, not sure I’m feeling it).

The resemblance is uncanny

But was it the best move to vote Sam off if they had gone to tribal without the challenge being thrown?

From the POV of Sarah, Kent, Odette, Ben, Luke and Michelle, I’m going to say yes. They get to be rid of a big strategic threat, and are left with any possible revenge dart being thrown squarely at Zenry and Jacqui or maybe Jericho. This is of course based on a BIG assumption that it was these three that did the leg work to send the vote Sam’s way. If Zenry was able to make that vote happen without it making him look like he was pulling the strings, then it was a good choice well-played (challenge throwing notwithstanding). It seems though, based on the preview for tomorrow, that ComMarkDo wants revenge on Zenry, so perhaps he was not so furtive at all.

Mark My Word

***Mark’s not picking up what Kent is lying down (see what I did there?)***

Where does Mark go to from here? One thing that seemed clear throughout this episode and in previous episodes was that the reason why the tribe wanted Sam to go had little to do with Mark himself. As the tribe may have seen the Smark alliance as a threat, they now see that power structure dismantled. I don’t get the sense that Mark is now on the outs with the tribe, at least not yet, so I don’t feel like he’s in a fight for his life. He has his physicality going for him. He’s a boon in challenges. I do think he may have come off a little too sharp in his interrogations pre-tribal. He’ll want to downplay that going forward. There’s lots of other people, eg Michelle and Ben, that are likelier candidates to be sent home next tribal should there be one for this Asaga. All Mark needs to do is downplay his strategy, play up his assets (not a euphemism), and let one of those guys take the fall. Unfortunately for ComMarkDo, much as it was for his namesake Arnold Schwarzenegger, it appears that emotions and a quest for revenge will now fuel his motivations. That is not the way to play smart Survivor. That’s not to say it won’t work. It may. Personally I don’t see any motivation for the rest of the tribe right now to flip on Zenry and side with ComMarkDo. Is there a way Zenry can deflect this attention? Guess we’ll see Monday night.

Asaga Saga

***Once Samatau took the GAS out of ASAGA’s barbecue, all they were left with was AA… (I’ll get me coat)***

There was some nice gameplay from a few others tonight too. I liked that Kent knew that Mark knew that he was lying. I think anyone would know he was lying, the amount of “honestly”s and “actually”s that were dribbling out of his mouth.
Similarly for Sarah. Though she was somewhat more believable, there was some long eye contact there when she was copping a Mark drilling (not a euphemism), and she suspects too that Mark knew she was lying. I do think that she seemed more genuine with Mark, and her relationship is still good enough that she can reassure him in the future if need be. I do suggest however that both Kent and Sarah approach ComMarkDo once they’re back at camp to stay in his good books and keep their options open. I don’t feel that doing so could weaken jeopardize their position in the tribe given that both Ben and Michelle are still around. Who knows what Ben and Michelle’s best play from here is. They must both be feeling the pressure, I just don’t quite understand how they have ended up on the bottom. If I knew a little bit more about their position in the tribe I might have advice for them. But as it is the only advice that I have is that they seem to be loose numbers (#loosenumbers), so they should leverage that in the apparently upcoming Faux-gi vs Special Ops (Zenry vs ComMarkDo) War.

Snags and T-Bones

I won’t spend much time with Samatau tonight, as there wasn’t much happening there. T-Bone (Tara) clicked it as we knew she would. Locky, Tara, and Anneliese talked among each other when they should have been finding a way in to the rest of the tribe. They whinged about being “pissed at Pete” (I thought they were saying ‘Pistol Pete’ at first), but didn’t do anything about it. I know I made light of T-Bone’s crying session before. I get it, I can imagine myself doing the same thing in that position. I hope she can lift herself from her funk and fight and give us something more meaty to talk about. I still want her gone, but I do feel sorry for her. Of these three, Anneliese is the only one I really want to see go further. I’d like to know more about what she has to offer. Strategically I have no advice for them different to what I gave them last post.

I must make mention of the BBQ reward. While watching them partake in the reward I had no sooner written the note ‘BBClue’ than AK tells the tribe they should be looking for the clue. Facepalm. Even if you don’t want to be the person to find it, the last thing you want to do is remind everyone of how strategic you are by being the one to mention a clue. Either look for it yourself (surreptitiously), get one trusted ally to look for it, or don’t look for it at all. You just painted a big target on your back. Oh shit, forgot we weren’t using that anymore. I mean, you just stuck a big ‘kick me’ sign on your arse (give me a better suggestion in the comments).

What was Locky’s play when he outed Zenry as being the driving physical force for Asaga at the challenges? My guess is that he was subtly reminding his own tribe that they need his strength if they’re going to win further challenges. Perhaps he also sees him as a threat in the future. I already suspect that it’s hard for Locky not to be the alpha dog, so maybe he’s highlighting the tall poppies to the other tribe in the hope that he’ll be booted before a merge/shuffle. I’d love to hear other’s thoughts on this.

Look at that. I made it through a whole post without making a power bottom joke. Hopefully I’ll get to use it next time. Until then, I’ve got nothing for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of those special people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 5 – ‘Bye Bye Misfits’ or ‘Bye Bye Miss Fit’

Don’t be caught spewin’, know how we got here by catching up on yesterday’s analysis.

***I don’t need to add a thing to this, it’s perfectly delicious! I could watch it for hours.***

Finally we got exactly what we asked for and know the dynamics of the Samatau tribe. And oh how quickly the game has turned. I must admit heading in to tribal, everything about the edit, not just this episode, but this series, was telling me that AK (Male Rebel Wilson) was going tonight. I would have been unhappy, but not surprised if this were the case. So for it to turn out the way it did? Well let’s just say that there was so much fist pumping going on in my loungeroom that you might think CENSORED CENSORED CENSORED all over the CENSORED CENSORED. But was this actually the best move for the new dominant alliance in Samatau?

You Done Messed Up A-A-Ron! (maybe he didn’t but I really wanted to use that line)

Before I get started on whether Aimee was the right target, I need to acknowledge something that AK did tonight that I thought was exquisite. When he was telling us that he needed one more number, and that he thinks he might be able to get Peter, I was screaming at the TV “Get Jarrad to do it!!”. Thankfully he heard me. To hear AK then tell us that this was a better job for Jarrad because Jarrad has a softer approach, well I was really impressed with the insight that he showed. He’s come a long way from episode one where he was a complete bull at a gate. Itching to get into it. It didn’t just come across as shady, it actually came across as insincere. Since nearly going home in episode 2 for it, he may not have changed his strategy in terms of manouvering, but he certainly changed his social game. Whenever I’ve seen him speak with others recently he’s come across as very sincere and humble. Well done sir.

Back to targeting Aimee, let’s think this through for AK. This move has undermined Locky’s power in the game certainly. Now that we finally know that Peter, Jarrad, and even Ziggy feel vulnerable under his rule, why not vote him out? Is it about keeping Locky around as a meat shield? Much like week old Devon though, that’s some very risky meat though (I know I know, devon’s barely meat, but it feels good to talk about Devon). Locky’s not going to go down without a fight. I feel he still has it in him to convince Ziggy and others to flip back and vote out AK as he’s clearly such a strategic threat. We heard Ziggy say that she is in a final three alliance with AK and Jarrad, but we’ve only heard her say that to AK. I did feel a little that AK was coming on too strong when he was trying to sure up his position in the eyes of Locky, Tara, and Aimee. And good on Tara for having the insight to still be very wary of him.

It seems to me now that Locky was a better target.

So from here we see both Locky and Tara, both influential, in a position where they are going to fight hard and probably not going to flip against each other. Had Locky been removed then we would be left with Aimee and Tara. They don’t seem to be particularly loyal to one another, and it had already been determined that Aimee was a sheep. The new alliance could easily scoop Aimee up in the battle to remove Anneliese or Tara. It seems to me now that Locky was a better target. Particularly for AK who had everything to lose. It was not like if the plan against Locky hadn’t worked then AK would be stuck on a tribe with Locky after trying to vote him out, AK’d be gone. I hope to be proven wrong that this this was the wrong move. Time will tell. So what can Locky do now?

No Longer a Misfit, So it’s Time for Loki’s Mischief (do Norse mythology references work in this blog?)

***Modesty’s not really your forte either is it dude?***

He’s been thrown a lifeline, what should he do with it? Presumably he still has Tara and Anneliese in his corner. Are there two others that would flip back to their side and vote with them? I don’t think there are. At this point, imminent merge/shuffle notwithstanding (which I had predicted could be as soon as the next episode, but wasn’t mentioned in the preview, leading me to reconsider), I suspect the best way for him to save himself now is to flip on Tara or Anneliese. Tessa fuggin hates Tara (much like myself) and would be happy to see her go. It’s true that AK is a threat but everybody already knows that, they’ll want him gone eventually, but are happy to use him as their number for now. In this sense, AK could almost be Locky’s meat shield (now that’s some smelly baloney!). So I suggest Locky’s best move is to go and apologise to AK for not working with him and for being so arrogant, and make moves against Tara. However I don’t suspect this is within Locky’s repertoire, he’s too proud and, despite his protestations at the previous tribal, he loves being the alpha male and would never submit to someone like AK, even just for appearances. What about T-Bone (Tara for those who’ve been following the analysis since episode 1) now?

T-Bone Gettin’ Cooked!

Just as it was for Locky, my suggestion for Tara would be to show some humility here. She was outplayed. Judging the preview of tomorrow night however, as we would actually expect from T-Bone, she clicks it. Digging a hole for herself making it easier for Locky and Anneliese to piss down on her. Given what we learnt tonight about her relationship with P-Styles (I’m trying that out for Peter, let me know what you think. Maybe P-Con?), perhaps the better move would be to have a chat with him, and try and work her way back into the tribe’s good books. Or at least find out if there’s a possibility she can shift the target from her to anyone else. Will she do this? Guess we won’t know until we get there.

You Can’t Spell ‘Anneliese’ Without ‘Lies’

I imagine things are feeling shaky for Anneliese now too. Is there a way she can ingratiate herself back into the now dominant alliance? I don’t know that she has any relationship with any of those players. It is important for her however to find out where Locky’s head is at. There’s a possibility he could flip on her to save himself and Tara. If she gets the impression that this is a possibility, then vote with the new alliance. Tara and Locky are the bigger threats here so it’s best for her to blend in to the background somewhat and let the heat flow their way. Ultimately as long as Locky and T-Bone don’t try to throw her under the balls, I don’t think it makes a difference if she votes with them or against them. With a merge/shuffle likely around the corner and the two of them bigger threats than she is and should be safe until then. Play it cool Anneliese.

Paging Dr. Comeback

***“Ooh Jarrad it’s not just the storm that’s making me wet.”***

I’m so glad Dr. T is still around. She makes things so much more interesting. Her play here is pretty simple. Lay low. There’s much bigger targets around than here. Start subtly working the social relationship with Zig-a-zig-ah, P-Con and Jarrad (sorry Jazzy J, I don’t have a nickname for you yet) and vote whichever way you’re told. Like Markzan, I have confidence in you. Unlike Markzan, I don’t show it by voting against you.

P(eter)eanut butter and J(arrad)elly

***Jarrad’s vote could swing either way #toteshomo***

Welcome to the game lads. To be fair I’m sure they’ve been playing a solid game thus far, we just haven’t been seeing it. I suspect they’ve been going with the flow waiting for a time like this to nudge the game in their favour. Well done men. Looking forward to seeing more from you. Pearl Jam (does that work for Peter and Jarrad or is it a stretch? Fuck it, I’m going with it) now find themselves in a position of power. The best move for them is to stick with AK, Tess and Zig until merge/shuffle, vote out Locky, and go from there. Too risky to keep Locky around and I don’t think Tess or AK are going to flip against them. Things are pretty solid for the next few tribals for them unless something ridiculous happens.

Little Tribe Blue, Where Are You?

I’m well aware that I haven’t talked Asaga at all this post, that’s because there’s nothing of note to talk of there. I’m not even going to utter the C-word. You know, the one Jericho is no longer munching on. To quote Jerkicho himself, the tribe, or what we’re being shown of it is “booooring”.

Before I go a quick note to say how happy I am that we’re five episodes in and have had a boot every night. Thanks for listening to the fans channel ten. I hope I haven’t jinxed it.
Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Survivor analysis by Russell Feathers, an Australian who thinks he has the numbers, but probably is about to have his torch snuffed (not a euphemism).

Idol Chatter

Human After All?

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

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Should Have Zagged.

Bonehead

Pearl Jam (P & J, yeah it’s weak I know)

Tickle The Boxes

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Need a sugar rush before you hit this analysis? Read the previous episodes analysis here!

A Big Annoying Thing

Michelle ‘n’ Man

A Straight Up Rascal

Thinking it Through Logilocky

Zig in a Poke

Aloha Luke

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Sarah. Sarah. No Time is a Good Time for Goodbyes

Big Bash Luke

Gettin’ Ziggy With(out) It

Playing it for Himself

“I’m not being emotional, I’m just hurt and pissed off and disappointed”

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Wish In One Hand, Dirt In The Other

Conserving Your Energy (you read that correctly, I went there)

Faking My Harlequin

Devilish Handling of an Idol Play Thing

Let’s Tess-ellate

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Underlining Strategy

Flippin’ Plankers

MicHellion

Sucky Situation

Swinger’s Party

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Zig or Zag

“MARCO?”…”ANNELIESE!” (you thought I was going to say polo, that’s why this particular joke works on multiple levels (oh yeah I am that clever))

T… Boned

Bridge Over Muddied Waters

Every day I’m Shuffling

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Throwing Challengers

Mark My Word

Asaga Saga

Snags and T-Bones

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You Done Messed Up A-A-Ron! (maybe he didn’t but I really wanted to use that line)

No Longer a Misfit, So it’s Time for Loki’s Mischief (do Norse mythology references work in this blog?)

T-Bone Gettin’ Cooked!

You Can’t Spell ‘Anneliese’ Without ‘Lies’

Paging Dr. Comeback

P(eter)eanut butter and J(arrad)elly

Little Tribe Blue, Where Are You?

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