Episode 1 – ‘Chumpions V Actual Proper Contestants’ OR ‘Swing and a Miss Australia’

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Our 2018 “Survivors” (please read the quotation marks as heavily, sarcastically emphasised. Is there an emoji for that?)

It’s back ladies and gentlemen. Or should I say “girls” and guys (how many times were females referred to as “the girls” tonight?). You may have guessed by the title of this episode’s analysis that I’m less than impressed about the direction the producers have taken with this season. Those who follow me (thanks to both of you, you know who you are) may have noticed that I’ve chosen not to engage in my usual pre-season commentary or contribute to any of the speculation and discussion within the community. To be honest I’ve been hesitant to think about it for fear I will just get my dander up. But fear not loyal Featherheads, this year once again I endeavour to bring you my unique analysis and perspective on every episode, ready to read on your morning commute or when you first fire up your device upon waking. To those new to Drop Your Buffs! a quick explanation of my format. This is not a show recap blog. This blog focusses on Survivor the ‘game’, rather than Survivor the ‘show’. That said, being the first episode there’s not a lot of gameplay to discuss, and I need somewhere to vent my frustration about the format of the show this year, so I’ll talk about that a little bit here. That’s enough introduction for now, so in the words of the late, great Richard Swift “We’re all good to go cause it’s time for the show, when I take back my soul”. Grab your torch and settle in.

 

A Pretty Face

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Channel Ten saving money on fresh copy…

Glad to see the return of Mike Munro’s This is Your Life to Australian television. Gee Mike is looking buff! What the baby Jesus is all this player background footage about?!?! This is not Survivor! When I watch Survivor I want to see what happens on island, not what happens in the ‘contestant’s’ personal lives. To me this stuck out like (big) dog’s balls. Especially that footage of Matt the traffic police officer pulling over a speeding motorist. The footage was shot inside driver’s car!!! C’mon channel 10. We deserve better than this. And lots of footage of other champions in their natural environment, yet no footage of Russell on previous Survivor seasons (unless I missed it). I understand of course that channel Nine may have rights to US season footage, but the fact that Ten couldn’t strike a deal with Nine for it, or didn’t care to try suggests to me that Ten don’t really care that much. More on Russell later.

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I’ll hold off commenting on this too until I know more. Does NOT look good though!

Perhaps I’m in the minority here and over-reacting, but if we have to watch two fugging hours of Survivor just for one elimination (I’m hearing rumours we’re looking at four fucking episodes next week!! I’ll save my commentary about that for next week), I want that to be quality time. Knowing contestant’s history means little to me. What I care about is what they do on island.

Not a Clue

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Real Survivors feast on remaining skerricks of Survivor credibility.

 

I’ll try not to get too bogged down talking about the theme. And really, I don’t have a problem with the theme as such. Similar themes on US Survivor have played out to my satisfaction. I’m more concerned about the way the theme is manifested here. I’m talking of course about “celebrities”. There’s not a doubt in my mind that a number of these ‘champions’ were approached by the producers to be on the show. In my view that’s just not cricket. That Russell got a spot is evidence of this. Russell didn’t go online and fill out an application form and create an application video. He wouldn’t have been able to, applications are only open to Australian residents, which I assume Russell is not. Putting Russell aside for the moment, I couldn’t care less about footy players. At least I thought I couldn’t care less, then it was announced Steve The Commando was ‘playing’, and I realised I could care less. A WHOLE LOT less. I don’t intend to belittle the incredible achievements of people like Shane Gould, Moana Hope, and Mat Rogers. Truly, they are champions in their field. But I don’t watch Survivor to see incredible feats of human physicality. That’s not what I’m here for, and I’d like to think most of you reading this feel the same way. What we want to see on Survivor is everyday people put in extraordinary situations, having to rely on cunning and strategy to outlast (please tell me if I’m wrong).

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Those ladies jump for joy when they see Mat Rogers’ tackle #notaeuphemism

I feel like Australian Survivor is suffering from an identity crisis. They want to be all things to all people. I get it, they’re a show and they have to make money, and Australia is a relatively small market. But by trying to appeal to so many they are in danger of losing the diehard fans who have kept this game alive for more than 15 years. Russell’s inclusion is little more than a piss-poor attempt to appeal to ‘superfans’ (fuck I hate that word, I promise to never, ever use it again). In my eyes this pandering backfire’s harder than Matt’s poorly maintained service revolver (and his poorly executed plan to call out Steve at tribal), and is more cliched than a smarmy white man in a fedora and waistcoat. Speaking of…

 

It’s Good to be the King

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Anyone else find this super creepy?

We need to talk (more) about Russell. Full disclosure, I’m off Russell. The prospect of watching him play again neither stirs my loins nor ruffles my feathers. He was fabulous on his first two seasons. He changed the game and practically defined what it meant to be a Survivor ‘villain’. I would argue though, that’s easier to do when you’re unknown. His co-contestants on his first two seasons did not know his play style and Russell worked this to his advantage beautifully. There is for me however one moment that epitomises Russell’s take on the game. At his second reunion show (#factcheck please), he argued to Jeff that the show needs to change so that viewers vote on who the winner should be, not the fellow contestants. Oh Russell. This comment speaks volumes about the flaws in his conception of the game. The game is not about getting to the end and then arguing the case and hoping the votes go your way. The game is about getting to the end in a way which facilitates a win, keeping the numbers and players on your side. Russell is/was great at getting to the end, but the gameplay he used to get there isn’t the sort of gameplay that gets you a win. His comment to Jeff tells me that he’d rather have the game change to get a win, than change his play style to one which is deserving of a win. Jeff quite perfectly responded to Russell’s argument with, I’ll paraphrase here because I don’t know verbatim, ‘If you want to make your own game called the Russell game with those rules, go right ahead. If you want to win Survivor, you play by our rules. Players voting players is crucial to what Survivor is. That’s how Survivor works’.

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“I’m rich biatch”

That Russell did not make it far in his third season tells you all you need to know about how well he can adapt his play style. His first two seasons he had the element of surprise. His third season, everybody knew his game and got rid of him early. When I heard he would be on this season I suspected we would see something similar here in Australia. He’d be labeled a threat and taken out early. However, having watched episode one I’m not sure that is going to be the case. This has less to do with Russell though, and more to do with his tribe-mates. I get the distinct impression that many of the champions are not overly familiar with Survivor or Russell. This gives Russell just enough wiggle room to play the game he always plays, to get a foothold through until merge. And good on him for finding an idol. He did well to get it. He was more furtive in his search than Steve was. But again I have to suggest, Russell would not have gotten away with that were he on the other tribe. It’s pretty clear that the contender tribe is the tribe of players who know what is what and are more attuned to suspicious behaviour. If Russell really is going to be a king, he’ll be less Charlemagne and more King Joffrey, with luck playing a huge part in his ascension.

 

Po-Po be Trippin’

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Matt watching his paranoia pass by at 63 in a 50 zone.

Finally we get to talk some actual gameplay. Let’s first revisit Steve’s attempts to find an idol. Nice try Steve, not exactly stealthy however. I don’t need to go into how stupid it was to be so obvious you’re looking for idols at this stage of the game. The show made it pretty evident. What I don’t appreciate though is JLP drawing attention to what Steve was doing in front of the rest of the contestants. Not cool JLP. Quick question though, was Steve serious when he approached Zach, asking how the vote works? Was he just fishing for info. He’s clearly enough of a fan that he knows about looking for idols, I’d love to know what he was playing at when he approached Zach. Give me your thoughts below.

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I don’t need to caption this one, it was fricken sweet

Of course the big story here is how Matt failed so badly. I can totally understand his paranoia. He’s tired and hungry. The rest of his tribe was not doing much to make him feel safe so he had to take things into his own hands. If he is thinking they were going to split the votes, would the safer bet not be to chat to Steve to find out if he knew where the vote was going, or to try and swing something with Steve so that if Steve does have an idol, Matt can vote with Steve. Instead, he panicked, ‘spooked’ as it was, and sketchily looked for the idol and tried to pin down his tribe-mates both before and during tribal.

His attack on Steve at tribal seemed very desperate and his behaviour was erratic and volatile. Again, I can understand him behaving this way when he feels like his back against the wall. The way he did this though was to suggest his tribe-mates didn’t have their eyes open, and then jut kept digging his hole, calling out alliances and putting down the women.

Not surprisingly, this behaviour was his downfall. We all know by now that if you want to get through the the first couple of tribals, and particularly the first, is to not make any waves at all, go with the flow, and do whatever everyone else wants to do. To Steve’s credit, he did a pretty good job of letting Matt have all the rope Matt needed to hang himself. To quote Steve himself, he “subdued his enemy without firing a single shot”. Matt on the other hand shot himself in the foot. How he managed to do that with the pissy little taser he was packing was truly mesmerising. Going out with a bang indeed. I’m not saying anything particularly revealing or enlightening here. This is Survivor 101. It was entertaining though.

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Actual slow motion footage of Matt firing at Steve

I think I’ve rambled and ranted enough for one evening. Despite my reservations about the season I’m committed to seeing it through. Hopefully most of the opinion about the show is out of the way now and tomorrow night we can really focus on the game. I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all Survivor gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 11 – ‘Want to Know What You’re Playing For?’ OR ‘Bog Save the Queen’

Does being confused about how we got here make you hangry? If so you can satisfy that hanger here.

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Luke the green-grocer delivers sharks?! My green-grocer doesn’t deliver sharks. You just sit and scan at ALDI don’t you Janice?

Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated? I’m pretty rotten on tonight’s episode. If you’re familiar with Drop Your Buffs! then you likely already know my feelings around tricking the players. To me that’s not Survivor and to be honest, it’s not even fun for the general viewing public. I asked Grant Denyer, he surveyed 100 people about this and 99 said “this is shit…”. The one person left was AK and his response was “are you homosexual?”. There’s not really much strategy to talk about tonight, but let’s do what we gotta do and analyze this shit.

Words matter.

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Everyone wants to hear the words that matter most. Another shout out from the J-LaP himself. Cheers compadre.

Is this chance at an idol a chance at a ‘reward’ as described by J-LaP, or is it a chance at an ‘advantage’? To anybody who has watched more than one season of Survivor then ‘rewards’ and ‘advantages’ are words that have very different meanings in Survivor. I know in the past I’ve scoffed at the fan uproar that resulted from the first tribe shuffle being called a ‘merge’. That’s a debate I have no time for, it really doesn’t matter what it’s called because we know what it is when we see it. But in this situation, the players don’t get to see it. They do however need to adjust their gameplay based on what it is. The ‘winner’ of this tribal council has a chance at an advantage. Knowing that it gives you a chance at an advantage changes completely the strategy and tactics that one might employ in this scenario. It was good to see J-LaP cop a grilling at tribal for a change. When Ben started speculating on what the “reward” might be I thought we were only a step away from someone asking J-LaP directly whether it was a reward or an advantage. Unfortunately they never got that far, or if they did, we didn’t see it.
To me, if you’ve got a chance at advantage, my first instinct is that you don’t want the advantage if it means that everyone knows you have an advantage, unless you’re in a particularly hairy spot (and I’m certainly not talking about Luke’s scrotum). Your best bet is to give it to someone that you are close enough to that you may have some power over how it is played, or at the very least know what and where it is.

Anarchy in the UK

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AK did his best to poke this bear, now who’s “totes homo”?

I would even argue that you might consider throwing the challenge. It just adds another level of complexity, something more you need to keep track of. Male Rebel Wilson (AK) might argue that anything that adds panic and fear in the tribe is good. I would disagree if that something is an unknown something, especially an unknown something that has been called by the host himself ‘the ultimate reward’, that’s fire you don’t want to play with even if you are a hangry Locky. If you don’t think there’s a merge/shuffle coming soon then I would seriously consider letting the other tribe deal with that wasp’s nest. The last thing that I will say about this twist is that as far as a way to have an episode without someone going home, at least this beats what they did last week and have done in the past by blindsiding players with a tribe swapping tribal outcome.

Swamp Thing

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🎵🎵Can’t start a fire without a spark. Samatau’s now got fire. And Ziggy’s left to go schlomping in the dark.🎵🎵

Regardless of my feelings about this twist we find ourselves in a situation where Ziggy is given a shot at the advantage. This was a good move for everyone (except perhaps Ziggy, who already seemed in a good position). Certainly it would have been better for Henry and Locky if either of them found it because they are in the tightest situation at Samatau. But I don’t think Ziggy having it is necessarily bad for them. The thinking to give it to someone trustworthy who is likely to share with the tribe makes perfect sense. And if it turns out that she is sketchy about it, well she becomes too much of a threat and you try and take her out, or at the very least make her play her advantage. What should she do with it from here? Good question Russell. Well, first of all I hope she kept the little statue that it was in as something that she may be able to bluff with in the future. In fact if I were her, and I were also a good liar, then I would tell the rest of the tribe that the statue is the reward, and that it was some sort of legacy advantage similar to Millenials/GenX for her to give to the person of her choice, and hope that the lie isn’t exposed before you need to use the actual super-idol. Of course if I were me, I wouldn’t be in this position because I would do my best not to be chosen to get it. Of course she could just tell the tribe exactly what it was but that she didn’t find it, or only tell a very select few that she did. A risky move, no matter how good a liar you are there would always be the suspicion that she has it. I honestly don’t know what I’d do in her situation. I’m completely bumpuzzled. I suspect that I’m going to be thinking about this a lot in the coming week. Please give me your thoughts in the comments.

Holidays In The Sun

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Actual footage of ‘healthier Russell Feathers’ watching this episode.

I can’t not mention the letters from home. Unexpected though it was when we’re not even half way through the season. To be honest when I saw them my first reaction was ‘I don’t care for this yet, they didn’t even have to compete for it, what the hell is going on?’. Within three minutes I was bawling my eyes out. Dang it Survivor you really know how to hit a brother right in the feelberries.

Next week actually sees me take a mid season break from published analysis for two episodes, but I’ll be back the following Sunday. Until then, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 10 – ‘Kiss Off’ OR ‘Death of Superman’

Don’t get caught at the gun fight with nought but a knife. Arm yourself with the previous episode analysis here!

Goodbye to everybody’s favourite middle-aged white CFO, The Kentster. We had some fun with him but ultimately he didn’t do enough to keep himself in the game any longer. Just how did he fall from the dizzying heights from which he once soared? Let’s make like Jerkicho at an ice-cream parlour and stuff our face with the goodness.

Bearly There.

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“If you look around and don’t see the dickhead, you’re it”

It might have been too much of a case of once bitten twice shy for Kent. Who, having unsuccessfully done a fair amount of wheeling and dealing last episode, mixed up his tactics and tried something new by ‘setting up shop’. In its self this is not necessarily a bad strategy, but it doesn’t usually work when your balls are on the chopping block. That tactic works best when you’re in a swing position, and people want to use you to swing things in their favour. Could one argue that had he not done this, and had instead taken a more active role in positioning himself and campaigning another option he would not have gone home? Probably not, but this tactic of his was symptomatic of the way he alienated himself post Jacqui’s departure (and what was the deal with sitting out of the reward challenge? Anybody know what happened there?). I said in the last episode analysis that it would behoove him to try and form a relationship T&A (T-Bone and Anneliese). I guess the other problem he had that, while it didn’t actively work against him, it did nothing to help, was his bond with Odette.

Dreadlocks on Holiday

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You said it Mama J!

If one were to say Kent did nothing to save himself, then Odette is somehow doing less than nothing. Seemingly now left with no Kent to stand on, what can she possibly do to continue in this game? Well here is a situation where it could be argued that she is in the middle, if she can see it. It very much looks like there is now a tribe split at Asaga, with Luke, Jerkicho, and Michelle a trust cluster and, Tara, Anneliese, and Sarah a trust cluster. Students of Survivor will note that here with seven left in the tribe, people are going to want to start making moves. I feel she really can sit back and let people come to her. I’m not sure at this stage which side she should then pick. There are pros and cons both ways. My gut feeling is take out Tara/Anneliese or Sarah as they would most likely ditch her once they could, whereas Luke, Jerkicho and Michelle will want to use her to get rid of Henry. This of course would involve her letting them know that she never had ties with Henry, or that any ties she did have are dead. Either way, she needs to take some time to hear the pitches of her tribemates, and sooner rather than later so she has some time to make the best move for her. Speaking of Tara.

Simple Simple Simple

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Oh No You Di’nt Gurl!!!

While I have to give it to T-Bone for actually being pro-active this episode, and considering options by approaching others. Unfortunatley for her all that energy was completely undermined by the way she actually did it. The amount of times she said “I think” rather than asking people what they want to do, underscores her complete lack of understanding of the social aspects of the game. Luke and Michelle said it best when they said something to the effect of “you’ve been here two minutes and you think you can start telling us what to do?!?!” and “just do what we tell you to do and we’ll know we can trust you” respectively. All she did by telling everyone what her plans were was put a big sign on her head that said STRATEGIST. Zenry may be the one playing board games on island but at this stage you’d have to say T-Bone’s quest to make it to the end of this game truly is a Trivial Pursuit. Anneliese on the other hand…

T-Bone’s Wing-(Wo)Man

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When J-LaP asks if anyone has an idol…

Anneliese played much more subtly. I’m not sure where I stand on her thinking getting Sarah involved to get the idol. Certainly from a viewer POV it’s the right move, so hopefully for her she has the tribe awareness to see what’s going on at Asaga. Sarah is the one looking for a wingman, she’s most certainly the right person to approach. So whether that move was accident or design, well done A. Incidentally, since when does a tribe have two idols? In my thinking Zenry has the Asaga idol. I guess when you’re production you just fiddle with the format to suit yourself. Have we seen it happen like this before (let me know in the comments). Also, what the hell was with J-LaP telling us the trolley’s had square wheels? Does he know what a square looks like? Is anything that’s not a circle a square to him? This reminded me very much of him telling us in episode 4 last season that Vavau were “half-swimming/half-running, just like dolphins”. J-LaP, you crack me up!
Anyway back to Anneliese, where to from here? DON’T TELL TARA YOU HAVE THE IDOL! Let her keep running her mouth so that if and when your alliance is targeted, she’s voted out before you. That’s step number one. Second, now that you’ve got Sarah, ask her what she wants to do, and do it. Let her be the meat-shield in your alliance. That trio is a pretty good fit for you right now. You can make it look like you’re the follower in that alliance, but you have the idol, and with it, the power. Just keep Sarah close so she doesn’t try and use that idol against you. Can’t see that happening at this stage.

Sarah the Substitute

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Cat with the cream

I wonder whether Sarah would have kept the idol for herself had she been the one to retrieve it? I’d love to know. Anyway, Sarah potentially is sitting rather pretty here. While it looked like she considered her options with Kent, and I loved the way she pumped him for info (in stark contrast to T-Bone’s approach of telling Kent what should happen), but I do think voting out Kent was the best move tonight. The numbers weren’t quite yet right to make a move against Luke, Jerkicho and Michelle yet, and if Asaga don’t go to tribal again before merge/shuffle, she may need them. Much better doing what she did and keeping them feeling like she’s with them and they’re running things. She needs to let Luke and Jerkicho do their thing and not make it look like her and Anneliese are aligned. As long as she keeps her ear to the ground to make sure they’re not looking at targeting her. If she feels they are, she can work with Anneliese to use the idol to flip the vote back on them. And as I said above, make a move to scoop up Odette, and she may not need to take advantage of that idol yet. Odette’s the number you need right now to really make like Luke and be ‘Mr. Comfortable’.

Luke Train Leaving the Station

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“I think I can, I think I can…”

If Luke is the engine of the Asaga train, it’s about time he looked behind him to see just how many carriages he actually has in tow because us viewers have the feeling he might shortly lose some and Asaga will derail. Analogy aside, he really does need to check his bonds in that tribe. He has been too cocky for too long and we all know that pride cometh before the fall. About time he took his head out of his ‘safe as houses’ bubble, because you don’t need Ross Greenwood or Paul Clitheroe to tell you the housing bubble is primed to burst (high fives all ‘round for name-dropping those two, fuck I’m awesome). As for Jerkicho and Michelle, I don’t know that they’ve got much life in the game beyond the merge other than as goats. Their best move for now is to stick with Luke and hope that he can steer the train through the rough times ahead (ok this metaphor may have derailed now), keep him as a meat-shield, I don’t expect he’ll flip on them anytime soon. And above all, try and scoop up Odette before Sarah does.

Smooth Criminal

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Nick showing Zenry how find cracks at a new tribe…

I don’t want to say too much about Samatau today, mostly because there’s not much to say. I liked Zenry’s attempt at using his charisma to establish bonds in his tribe. It’s good to see that he was aware things aren’t really going as planned there, he couldn’t find the crack he assumed would be there, and so acted. Unfortunate that it seemed to backfire, there really is something to be said for keeping as low a profile as possible when joining a new tribe, sticking your neck out is just too risky. As for giving Jerkicho what I assume is his old immunity clue? Initially I thought this a genius move. To have kept it for the purpose of giving someone something tangible with which to show that you’re still with them, and then to pick the cookie distributor was clever. Though it didn’t seem that the clue was particularly specific, I do wonder though if this will result in Jerkicho looking for the clue, not finding it and assuming that Zenry has it, hence targeting Zenry if they make it to merge. Only time will tell.

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Actual footage of AK encouraging Zenry to keep trying to ‘fit in’

And I couldn’t make it through a post without mentioning fan favourite, Male Rebel Wilson (AKA, MRW. AKA, AK). Not only was he sharp enough to be wise to Zenry’s strategy, but also the way he pumped Ben for information about the exact dynamics of Asaga, was delicious. Sweet, naïve, people-pleasing Ben was all too happy to spill the beans. Until the next super episode, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 7 – ‘Straight Shooting’ or ‘Feeling the Sting’

If you’re confused about the commotion in the ocean, still those waters by reading how we got here in the previous analysis.

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How many times can I type ‘totes homo’ this season?

At least Channel Ten weren’t overhyping it this time when they told us we would have a showdown. Personally I’m happy that Mark left. He wasn’t my cup of tea. Ultimately the better man (and woman) won.There’s not much aside from this battle worth talking about, but let’s get muddy and break down why Zenry and Jacqui prevailed.

Revenge is a Dish Worst Served by a Cold Fish

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There’s one or two ladies and men out there that will take more than an inch if you’re offering Mark

Mark said it himself. He’s a quiet guy. Unfortunately in this game that can come off as analytical, arrogant and aloof. It became crystal clear during tribal just how different this was to the way Zenry came across. I’m glad that ComMarkDo got direct. Not only was it entertaining but, suspecting that the tribe could go either way he really had nothing to lose. All he did though was throw shade at Jacqui and Henry, trying to undermine them and at the same time talk himself up. Zenry on the other hand, took a different approach. None of the words out of Zenry’s mouth were attacks on Mark, but instead were positive and reassuring to his alliance. He spoke of trust and relationships, not secrets and lies. I know that since episode two I’ve been unfavourable in my comments on the way he and Jacqui have carried themselves around camp. This was echoed tonight when Luke said “it’s no secret that (they) are an alliance”. But I definitely got a good vibes from them during the tribal tonight. Their argument against, particulalry Zenry’s, came across as sincere and non-threatening. He was honest about having a ‘mother/son’ relationship with Jacqui, and spoke of having equitable relationships with other tribemates. Ultimately if you’re in that tribal and are still having second thoughts about who to vote against, based on tribal performance alone you’re going to be more comfortable keeping Zenry than ComMarkDo. Asaga have been dealing with these two personalities for nearly twenty days, and if their behaviour in those twenty days was anything like it was during this tribal, it’s clear that Zenry is playing a better game socially. This was something that a few loose words from Luke was not going to change.

Loose Ends

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The Brown Hornet (Luke) and his bumbling offsider (#stretchyreference) 

Oh shit Jericho and Luke! You boys are on the out now. Incidentally nice work from Jericho (savour this Jericho, it’s unlikely you’ll get positive words from me again) in holding the anti-vengeance line during tribal and not tipping his hand. But what happened here tonight speaks to how little awareness these two have of their tribal dynamics. Lucifer Luke we know does shit just to stir shit up, which is never a good play. I don’t see any strategy in what he does other than to create chaos. He’s like a firebug. Gaining a sense of power by performing senseless acts that get reactions.

 

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Actual footage of Luke joining Mark’s alliance

He’s funny, but I don’t care for his gameplay. And it seems neither do the rest of Asaga, other than Jerkicho. Ugh, I can’t even. And the preview for next episode looks like Jerkicho is going full Brandon Hantz because he doesn’t get his way. I have zero time for this. It’s neither stimulating nor intriguing. I’ll be glad when I don’t have to look at him again. What can they do though to move past this? Well, don’t do what it looks like Jerkicho is doing and sabotaging camp. I’d like to think that the best both of them can do is get back to Zenry and Jacqui, apologise, lay low and hope that Michelle and Ben don’t ingratiate themselves any further. However I do believe there is a chance they could flip things their way though. We still don’t know where Odette, Ben, and Michelle really stand. And I get the feeling Sarah is keeping her options open. These people didn’t flip when it came to the Mark vote, but could they flip on Zenry and Jacqui?

Under the Water, Under the Radar

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Off the Mark…

The more I think about this the more I see that the best move for these real misfits is to flip on Jacqui and Zenry shortly. Of course they don’t know there’s an idol involved. I was excited to hear about that this episode, I’d completely forgotten. Idol notwithstanding, it makes sense to start the whispers about breaking them up. Mark’s parting words have laid the foundation, so if you’re Asaga you can bring it up in that context without it coming across as your own great strategic idea. If you’re the BOMS (Ben, Odette, Michelle, Sarah) which duo do you target first? Zenry and Jacqui, or, Jerkicho and Lucifer Luke (they give JL a bad name)? Zenry and Jacqui are more strategic, but Jerkicho and Luke are unpredictable. Hmmm, I don’t have an answer for this, I’m going to think on it some more. Regardless I would argue that the BOMS are now in a power position if they can get their shit together and get on the same page. Can’t end talking Asaga without acknowledging Sarah’s play this episode. The way she talked with Luke and made him feel comfortable was sublime.

Flaky Relations

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Sharks don’t generally make it past episode 10 anyhow…

Again not much from Samatau tonight. Nothing seems to have changed for them. Locky and T-Bone are still trying to work together to create a coup. As discussed two posts ago I consider their best move is to target each other. I guess they’ve at least got to make it look to one another that they still want to play together. Good luck working on Ziggy. I’m glad we got to see more from her tonight and know that she too is considering her options rather than floating along with the majority alliance. I don’t imagine that she’s going to split from the main alliance yet. Certainly not at eight. Come seven though, if it gets that far before a merge/shuffle, I can definitely see her shifting if she can get someone else to shift with her. I don’t know enough about Jarrad and Peter yet to know if they would. I can actually see Tess and Ziggy making a move together at seven if Samatau gets that far.

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I’m claiming this as a personal shout-out from Australian Survivor

That’s all I got time for tonight. Damn Monday nights with your Survivor and your Thrones and your Q&A. It’s too much for a man to handle. At least they dispensed with reward challenge tonight. I hope that becomes a regular Monday episode thing. Though maybe next time they wont make up for that with 30 mins at tribal council. Until next week, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

Russell Feathers

(Most memes and non-Survivor gifs created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and Survivor gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these particularly gifted people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 6 – ‘Running The Show’ OR ‘Smarter Than The Average Yogi’

If you’re wondering why there’s a lamington on the BBQ you’re not alone, and the previous episode’s analysis won’t help you understand that, but it will help you understand what’s going on with our players.

Which Sam is the better detective?

Finally we see some Asaga. I was getting sick of seeing cookies whenever we checked in with them. But now there’s some action on our hands. Well at least as much action as you’re going to get when the votes are split 9-2. Anyway, let’s make like Tara’s mental fortitude and break (it) down.

Throwing Challengers

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Zenry’s had plenty of practice throwing things…

OK, in the past I’ve spoken at length about where I stand regarding throwing challenges, so I won’t dwell on it too much. Generally speaking, I think throwing challenges is a stupid move. It rarely works well. It’s especially unnecessary when there’s likely a merge/shuffle around the corner. What exactly were Zenry’s motivations for doing so? Was it because he felt Sam was on to him? We know from a few episodes ago that Sam certainly didn’t trust his alliance with Jacqui. Which is on his own head for making his alliance too obvious.

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“You heard me wrong guys. I never said ‘Yoga Teacher’, I said ‘Yoghurt Eater'”

So if he was worried about Sam outing him as a more strategic player than he’s purporting to be, is the answer to that to strategically mastermind her shafting? Sounds counterintuitive to me. To be fair though, we didn’t actually see him pulling the strings. How exactly did word get around, does he have his own troops to do that bidding? (Incidentally where is Jericho’s cookie army?) If he did manage to make this happen without putting this target on his back, then he’s a better player than I give him credit for. Also, why is it that we say people put a target on their back, when it’s their head that ends up on the chopping block? Methinks it’s about time we started using some less stale Survivor cliches.
Back to the gameplay. Not only did he throw the challenge but he did so by putting himself in the clutch position at the challenge. Now that’s really playing knifey/spoony with your balls (maybe that will catch on #testicularknifeyspoony).
However with such a landslide victory it’s possible that Zenry was pretty certain that he had the numbers, making throwing the challenge less of a risk for him. Still, I’m not convinced the reward justifies the risk. If it was so easy for Zenry to turn the tribe against Sam, I don’t suspect that Sam would have done been able to turn the tribe against Zenry had their tribal council appearance come three or six days later. So again, not worth the risk. Asaga is also left with a pissed bulldog in ComMarkdo (eh, not sure I’m feeling it).

The resemblance is uncanny 

But was it the best move to vote Sam off if they had gone to tribal without the challenge being thrown?

From the POV of Sarah, Kent, Odette, Ben, Luke and Michelle, I’m going to say yes. They get to be rid of a big strategic threat, and are left with any possible revenge dart being thrown squarely at Zenry and Jacqui or maybe Jericho. This is of course based on a BIG assumption that it was these three that did the leg work to send the vote Sam’s way. If Zenry was able to make that vote happen without it making him look like he was pulling the strings, then it was a good choice well-played (challenge throwing notwithstanding). It seems though, based on the preview for tomorrow, that ComMarkDo wants revenge on Zenry, so perhaps he was not so furtive at all.

Mark My Word

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Mark’s not picking up what Kent is lying down (see what I did there?)

Where does Mark go to from here? One thing that seemed clear throughout this episode and in previous episodes was that the reason why the tribe wanted Sam to go had little to do with Mark himself. As the tribe may have seen the Smark alliance as a threat, they now see that power structure dismantled. I don’t get the sense that Mark is now on the outs with the tribe, at least not yet, so I don’t feel like he’s in a fight for his life. He has his physicality going for him. He’s a boon in challenges. I do think he may have come off a little too sharp in his interrogations pre-tribal. He’ll want to downplay that going forward. There’s lots of other people, eg Michelle and Ben, that are likelier candidates to be sent home next tribal should there be one for this Asaga. All Mark needs to do is downplay his strategy, play up his assets (not a euphemism), and let one of those guys take the fall. Unfortunately for ComMarkDo, much as it was for his namesake Arnold Schwarzenegger, it appears that emotions and a quest for revenge will now fuel his motivations. That is not the way to play smart Survivor. That’s not to say it won’t work. It may. Personally I don’t see any motivation for the rest of the tribe right now to flip on Zenry and side with ComMarkDo. Is there a way Zenry can deflect this attention? Guess we’ll see Monday night.

Asaga Saga

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Once Samatau took the GAS out of ASAGA’s barbecue, all they were left with was AA… (I’ll get me coat)

There was some nice gameplay from a few others tonight too. I liked that Kent knew that Mark knew that he was lying. I think anyone would know he was lying, the amount of “honestly”s and “actually”s that were dribbling out of his mouth.
Similarly for Sarah. Though she was somewhat more believable, there was some long eye contact there when she was copping a Mark drilling (not a euphemism), and she suspects too that Mark knew she was lying. I do think that she seemed more genuine with Mark, and her relationship is still good enough that she can reassure him in the future if need be. I do suggest however that both Kent and Sarah approach ComMarkDo once they’re back at camp to stay in his good books and keep their options open. I don’t feel that doing so could weaken jeopardize their position in the tribe given that both Ben and Michelle are still around. Who knows what Ben and Michelle’s best play from here is. They must both be feeling the pressure, I just don’t quite understand how they have ended up on the bottom. If I knew a little bit more about their position in the tribe I might have advice for them. But as it is the only advice that I have is that they seem to be loose numbers (#loosenumbers), so they should leverage that in the apparently upcoming Faux-gi vs Special Ops (Zenry vs ComMarkDo) War.

Snags and T-Bones

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I’m not touching it….

I won’t spend much time with Samatau tonight, as there wasn’t much happening there. T-Bone (Tara) clicked it as we knew she would. Locky, Tara, and Anneliese talked among each other when they should have been finding a way in to the rest of the tribe. They whinged about being “pissed at Pete” (I thought they were saying ‘Pistol Pete’ at first), but didn’t do anything about it. I know I made light of T-Bone’s crying session before. I get it, I can imagine myself doing the same thing in that position. I hope she can lift herself from her funk and fight and give us something more meaty to talk about. I still want her gone, but I do feel sorry for her. Of these three, Anneliese is the only one I really want to see go further. I’d like to know more about what she has to offer. Strategically I have no advice for them different to what I gave them last post.

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Banger in the mouth?

I must make mention of the BBQ reward. While watching them partake in the reward I had no sooner written the note ‘BBClue’ than AK tells the tribe they should be looking for the clue. Facepalm. Even if you don’t want to be the person to find it, the last thing you want to do is remind everyone of how strategic you are by being the one to mention a clue. Either look for it yourself (surreptitiously), get one trusted ally to look for it, or don’t look for it at all. You just painted a big target on your back. Oh shit, forgot we weren’t using that anymore. I mean, you just stuck a big ‘kick me’ sign on your arse (give me a better suggestion in the comments).

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“I’ll take it”

What was Locky’s play when he outed Zenry as being the driving physical force for Asaga at the challenges? My guess is that he was subtly reminding his own tribe that they need his strength if they’re going to win further challenges. Perhaps he also sees him as a threat in the future. I already suspect that it’s hard for Locky not to be the alpha dog, so maybe he’s highlighting the tall poppies to the other tribe in the hope that he’ll be booted before a merge/shuffle. I’d love to hear other’s thoughts on this.

Look at that. I made it through a whole post without making a power bottom joke. Hopefully I’ll get to use it next time. Until then, I’ve got nothing for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of those special people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

 

Episode 1 – ‘Welcome (Back) to the Jungle’ OR ‘Paradise Shitty’

We’re Back and Ready for Round 2

So it begins. In a move which one might imagine is in response to fans’ complaints of last season, we have a cast of true game players. In my last post I argued that this was not necessarily a good thing, so far I stand by that (aren’t I just the contrarian?!). Being a first episode there’ll be little to talk about strategy wise here, so it might be a short post. Regardless, let’s make like Jarrad and hold on to our sacks, hopefully it will be a fun ride.

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I’m no expert at making friends but I’m pretty sure you don’t start by asking “are you homosexual” in the first hour…

Movers and Shankers?

While there was much argument last season that there were too few ‘superfans’, it seems that this season every other player has a gimmick. While I’m not here to critique casting choices, I will critique strategy. Most obviously in my cross-hairs is of course Henry. Mother Hen? Zenry? (Cast your vote for nickname in the comments). The faux yoga teacher. Let’s put aside for now that in his piece to camera he tells us that he’s shocked no one has ever lied about their vocation before (makes me think he’s no fan at all), to be fair we didn’t learn anything about him tonight other than that part of his strategy. Which it seems is the strategy of many of our contestants in 2017. Not that I’m knocking the play as such. But to call it a master strategy? It’s a minor tactic at best. Let’s look at the players in the past who have done well with this strategy, the most prominent of whom being Tony Vlachos. I think we can all agree that Tony’s ploy to hide his vocation was not the factor that led to his success. Let’s look at all of the players who’ve hidden or disguised their vocation and not done as well as Tony. Bianca, episode 2 boot. Evan, episode 3 boot. Did Phoebe hide what she did? If she did it didn’t seem to help her. I believe Andrew hid that he was a ‘superfan’, might have helped but wasn’t enough. And that’s just the players from the last Australian season who’ve tried this tactic or something similar. There’s a list of non-performers from US seasons. Even the first boot from the NZ season hid her fandom.

Covert Unintelligence

How many players do we have here that are hiding their background? Aside from Yin Yang Hank, I count Mark W., and Tara (dear reader let me know if there’s anyone missing from this list). Seriously Tara? You think that people knowing you’re a barrel racer would disadvantage you? I didn’t even know it was a thing until 30 mins ago!

 

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I don’t know Jacqui, have you met my ex-wife?

Back to Halasana Henry (it’s a yoga pose, again, vote below). I’m not quite sure what his reasoning is here anyway. Is he just trying to hide that he’s a labourer? Are labourers inherently Survivor threats? Perhaps the idea is just that he’s going to pretend to be a really cool, friendly, easygoing guy. Not really sure that that’s something you can fake. Just ask AK47 (someone was going to do it, might as well be me). Or as I like to call him, Male Rebel Wilson. MRW.

Finding the Dickhead…

These guys. These fuggin guys. So many dickheads. Of course I don’t know these people outside of the show and they’re possibly great people, but so far, they’re acting like dickheads (or at best it’s being edited that way).

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Hey caption guy, you spelled ‘douchebag’ incorrectly.

MRW. AKA, AK (A!!) Your faux gentlemanliness might help you pick up drunk bridesmaids (or more likely not), but dude this is not a coolness party. Dial it back. I’m imagining his final tribal speech now. Everyone is blown away when he reveals that he doesn’t actually have any gay friends *insert dramatic reveal music*!!! (Is that because he doesn’t have any friends at all?). The lying about gay friends takes the prize for most dickhead comment of the evening. I hope he can dial it back for his sake. If he doesn’t I suspect he’s not long for this world. As of right now, you’re dickhead number one. I should know, I learned all about it from Fat Fiscal Superman. AKA Kent.

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AK does his best wedding singer impression, “Julia Gulia are you sure there isn’t any rum in that Coca Cola?

…In a Sea of Dickheads

IMG_2116Is the sarcasm filtering though here? Please keep making dickhead moves like this, we love it. Next on our dickhead list is Jericho the Jesus Jerk. OK, fair enough we haven’t really seen much of him tonight, but he did possibly say the second most dickheaded comment of the night. I’m paraphrasing but essentially it was ‘in my life I live a strong Christian faith, but in this game there will be bloodshed! *maniacal laugh*’. His strong Christian faith is so strong that he hasn’t read enough of the bible to know that is chock full of slaughter, or enough history books to realise that the Christian faith is responsible for more bloodshed on this planet than any other doctrine, nazism included. I’m getting political, but so I should. If Australian Survivor wants to shine a light spirituality/religiosity, then of course I’m going to respond. Anyway, other than myself, there was of course one more dickhead of note as dickheadedness is not solely a male phenomenon.

Oh Baby. Baby…

She’s not your typical sheila. She’s a knockaround, drink a slab with the boys, call a spade a spade, fair dinkum Aussie rootrat. Seriously Survivor? This is where we’re going in 2017, ocker gender stereotypes? Again, we didn’t see much of Aimee tonight, but the little introduction we did have made it into our dickhead quotable quotes. So quotable that I’m not going to quote it but I will paraphrase. Essentially she said ‘when I tell people I’m a plumber, they’re like, “nah, you must be a hairdresser”, and I’m like “nah, I’m a plumber”‘. Aimee if you’re seriously telling people that you’re a plumber and they’re responding with disbelief and suggesting that you must be a hairdresser, then you must talking to true, died in the wool, fuckin dickheads. Who are these idiots that respond like this? To be fair to you, the dickheadedness on display here does not belong to you. I’m sincerely sorry if that’s you’re experience. I don’t find it laughable at all, and it saddens me that you dismiss it as humour. I hope that you don’t have to experience that again in the future.

Other Notable Moments

We’ve already noted use of the word ‘dickhead’ tonight and I’m really happy that Survivor has not been afraid to use such language. It was particularly refreshing to hear Jacqui use the word ‘tits’. IMG_2117And in the opening moments too. Really set the tone. Is that a Survivor first? Somebody please make a meme of Jacqui saying ‘tits’, I’ll be forever in your debt.

 

 

I don’t feel like we’ll have to talk through the challenge and lead up to tribal, there’s little to discuss other than the challenge was fun, but took too much airtime for my liking. Time that could have been spent showing us whether or not there was an advantage on the barge at the start. I’d be surprised if no one had the sense to look for one, I would have liked to see that. Incidentally, while we’re on the barge, you can’t call it a twist in the first challenge if you are just explaining the rules of the challenge. That’s not a twist, that’s explaining the rules of the challenge. I’ll wager a large booty that this is not the first time Australian Survivor lies about a twist this season though.

 

My viewing buddy and I looked at each other when Joan told us she was the puzzle queen and recognised that they very much sounded like famous last words. Not sure what to make of Ben flipping his vote to Joan on the revote. We don’t know enough about him or any alliances/factions/voting blocks at this stage to understand the strategy behind it. Perhaps there was no strategy.

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Must say I was a little shocked that there dind’t seem to be much made of sending two people off to the fire challenge. As we discussed last season, if ever there’s a situation where the tribe has to pick one or more emissaries you do not want to be one of those people. There’s too great a possibility it will not work out for you, as we saw for Mark H. He took this hard. Just as Kent and Joan took it hard when they put their hands up for the puzzle.

There wasn’t enough lime farmer this episode. Wait, that’s not true, there was more time with Tarzan this episode than there was Jared Lipnicki in Jerry Maguire!

All in all, I must say I’m extremely happy with the episode though. Yes I’ve talked a lot about the dickheads that I loathe. But as I discussed at length last post, that’s what we love about Survivor. Talking with our friends and the community about the dickheads, gaining pleasure in their failures, feeling superior when they make a stupid move or say something ridiculous, telling everyone how we would do it SO much better. If anything I hope that these losers would calm down just a little bit, we don’t want them all to go home in the first third of the season and have a lacklustre period like we did last year. We’ve certainly got a cast of fabulous characters, time will tell if we have a cast of fantastic contestants.

Until tomorrow, that’s all I’ve got for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

 

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs channel ten)

Episode 25 – ‘I Owe You a Big One’ OR ‘Pulling It Off and Winning a Necklace’

If you’re yet to read the analysis of the previous episode, I’ll throw you a lifeline, you can check it out here.

The threesome is finally here. Unfortunately for Kristie, she is no longer in the middle with room to move. She’s not the meat in that sandwich. Instead, she’s more like banana at a bread party. There’s a possibility she’ll be invited to play, but chances are slim to bubkas. Particularly now that she no longer has the peanut butter that is Flick. Time to turn this discussion into a chicken carcass and break it down.

How to Make a Jury Cringe 101

There’s a party in her mouth…
Move along, nothing to see here. Kristie made the move that we all suspected she would, now in order for her to make it to final two she has to win immunity. This was a stupid move. Not because I don’t think that she can beat Lee or El. I’ve said multiple times that if she makes the final two she will beat both Lee and El. But the way that it played out at tribal, it was clear that she wasn’t going home. It was also made very clear in the tribal that El and Lee would take each other to final two should either of them win immunity. So had she sent a vote towards Lee then she remains safe and in the top three, and potentially faces Flick in the final three. Arguably this would give her a much better shot of making it to the final two. I have to give her credit for the way that she backs herself though. It’s inspiring to see her grab the bull by the douchebags and commit herself to going toe to toe against Lee and El. She has to, the reality is I see no situation where she can make final two without winning immunity, and I won’t even take the time to entertain such possibilities, it would be an exercise in futility. What I can do though is consider how she might address the jury should she beat the odds and win immunity.

Digging that hole…DIG UP STUPID!
Much like the pole that one has to fashion at immunity challenge, even if one’s game is long enough, if it’s not strong enough at the end, or you don’t have a hook, you don’t get the key to the prize. So what is Kristie’s story and is it strong enough? How did she get here, does she have a hook? Kristie has told us many times in the past that she is a floater. The problem with that word is that it devalues the decisions that she has made. The word floater suggests that she let others make the decisions for her. This may be the case but you don’t want the jury to think this. She has said she has played an independent game. The word ‘independent’ can be taken a couple of ways. It could be said that she didn’t listen to peoples advice or that she hasn’t had the help of others. The reality is that she has had the help of others. A lot of help and a lot of luck. If I were her I would be playing up the fact that she made decisions, tough decisions, at every step of the game to get herself further. That these were smart decisions and the proof is in the pudding. She also needs to accept that there were people that helped her, and that she milked those opportunities for all that they were worth. If it were anyone else but Kristie in this situation, I would advise that she talk up her social game, and argue that this was the reason the opportunities came her way. Alas, for Kristie, social skills probably aren’t her strong suit, certainly not from what we’ve seen. This was evidenced by her being voted least popular at final six. So such a play I’m sure would be met by the jury with laughter. In terms of a hook, unfortunately for K, the move that she made against Phoebe was arguably her biggest, but the only person on the Jury who saw it and saw how big a move it was is Sue. There’s no harm in using it as an example anyway, if you’ve got it flaunt it. I can’t think of any other moves she has in her story that she can use. If there’s something you think I’m missing please let me know in the comments.

‘El Yeah

I’ll let you insert your own caption here…
Another person I have to give credit to tonight is (I can’t believe I’m writing this…) El. Only because she actually had a thought. It was a good thought. It was such a good thought that even I had not thought about it. The thought was that if she and Lee kept Flick in the game, then she would go to final two regardless of who wins immunity in the final episode. Obviously if she wins immunity she goes, if Lee wins he takes her, and if Flick wins she takes her. Once she had this thought however she didn’t act on it. I suspect because Lee could see that it was risky for him and he convinced El that they should target Flick. Unfortunately for El, Flick is also the only person that she could possibly beat (if Brooke votes against Flick, check out the numbers here). So tonight she missed her only opportunity at winning the game. Her other option tonight was to vote against Lee. I suspect if she had done this, she would not lose Lee’s jury vote. Furthermore had she done this, having made such a big move may have actually moved her up a few pegs in the minds of the jury. Unfortunately, for us the viewers and for her, she didn’t go there, and we’ll never know how that scenario could have played out. As much as I’d love to talk about how El can and should address the jury… I’m sorry I couldn’t type that with a straight face…

Closing Arguments

Evidence of ‘midnight whispers’
What will Lee have to say should he make it to the final two? I expect that he will probably get some questions from Nick, JL, Matt and Brooke about his strategy. He’s argued for some time that he is strategic. That his strategy was to find a strong alliance and try not to piss anyone off. Though that’s a fair answer, I doubt that will satisfy the jury. Sam could also have a go at him about turning on him. His initial reaction to that might be to argue that he was just getting Sam before Sam got him. And it’s a fair argument to make. I think the best way though to actually counter this question is with humility. Sam will want to hear how hard it was for Lee to do that to his mate, and how ultimately he saw Sam as a threat. I think Sam will respect that and it may earn Lee his vote. He needs to play up the moves that he made, and the things he achieved. He was a challenge beast. And when it came down to it, he was the one who was able to convince Kristie to vote his way. In this respect, his actions completely impacted the game. He would not have had the ability to do that had he not made such a strong connection with Kristie. These are all solid arguments for him, but to be honest, they’re all moot points. The reality is that Lee will stick to the standard post match cliches. Tell us how he gave 110%. I bet ten dollars he says “full credit to Kristie/El”. We’re going to get nothing of substance from him.

I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’

Given the Flick (oh shit…)

“What’s that smell?…oh, desperation…”
So sad to see Flick go tonight, she was the last remaining tactician and has been for some time. She did everything she could this episode to stay. She tried every possible angle tonight. She pushed hard in the challenge. She puckered up and kissed some arse, (no wonder she smelt like “stinky colon”). She tried to convince Kristie on a rational level. Regrettably Kristie decided to go another way. The only thing that might have changed tonight’s outcome is if somehow she had established the type of bond with Kristie that Lee has. I guess since the merge happened, she did not suspect that she would end up in a situation where she needed Kristie’s trust, and didn’t foster a relationship with her, at least not one that we saw. Even if she didn’t think Kristie would make it this far, she should have (and to be fair I’m sure she did) at least fostered the relationship in the hope that she would earn Kristie’s vote. Live and learn I suppose. Take this as a cautionary tale. Foster those relationships, no matter how much you think you wont need them. And DON’T TELL SOMEBODY THAT THEY’RE LEAVING!
Until tomorrow night’s finale, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 26 Finale analysis here!

Episode 24 – ‘Jek-El & Hyde’ OR ‘Dracu-Lee’

Have your emotions confused your path forward? If so, get back on track by reading my previous post here.

EL is smiling because she finally learned what the word ‘alliance’ means

Once again Kristie has a predicament. The power to change the game in her holistic little hands, and then she goes and sides with Lee and El. Let’s go ahead and break down if this was a good move for her, and where our other Survivors now sit.

More torn than Daniel Johns’ old photos of Natalie Imbruglia

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As much as I don’t like the move, because I personally don’t like Lee or El on my television anymore (in fact I’m hoping that someone can tell me if there’s a google plugin that can delete the letters ‘L’ and ‘E’ from my internet browser so I never need to hear about them again), I argued last week that Kristie could beat El and Lee, and I stand by that. I won’t go through the numbers again (if you want to check them out do so here), but if anything Lee and El’s performance tonight has them potentially losing a vote or two should either of them make it there. Kristie has a better chance of making the final three by making the move she did. Idols aside, I can’t see Lee voting her out next round, I can’t see El not voting against Flick. That puts her in the top three. Getting to top two is much harder. I can’t see Lee and El not taking each other, regardless of Lee’s assertions that they haven’t discussed a top two. So for Kristie to make it to the top two now it almost seems like she has to win immunity to get there. Are there really no other options though?

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This scene brought back a lot of memories of my time in ‘ball waiter college’…
If Kristie doesn’t want to go to final three with Lee and El is there anything she can do before then? Other than having taken El out tonight, there’s not much. It would require Kristie work with Flick and then convince either El or Lee to vote the other. Now that’s a hard sell. I suspect that El would never work with Flick now. Lee on the other hand, again, I just can’t see anyone talking him out of voting with El. And to be fair, why would he? I think he would beat her in a final two, (five votes to four if you follow last week’s numbers). At this stage though if you want to break up Lee and El, that’s you’re only option, so what have you got to lose? You’d have to throw it out there, as Lee says, have a crack at it. Aside from that hail mary play, the only other way we are likely to end up with a three that doesn’t include both Lee and El is if Flick wins immunity. That seems to be Flick’s only shot, and that is something I’d love to see!

For the love of all that is holy, Flick please win immunity!

Flick winning immunity would make things very, very interesting indeed. That would leave Lee, Kristie and El having to vote turn on each other. I have absolutely no idea who which way they would choose to go. Given Kristie seems to have finally settled on the loyalty/mateship route, I suspect that she would not vote against Lee. She’s said a couple of times now that it’s not about the numbers. But we did see her momentarily be happy to vote with Flick and Matt and I feel that she was genuine about that move at that time, and would have gone that way until she was dissuaded by Lee and El. But given how wishy washy she is it’s not outside the realms of possibility that she would vote Lee out. That would be the smarter move for her, as I doubt that in a final three of El, Flick and Kristie, Flick or El would take each other to the final two. I could be wrong about that, Flick may feel that she has a better chance of beating El than she does Kristie. That is a real lineball call. Again, according to last week’s numbers, if Flick gets Brooke’s vote then she would beat both Kristie and El five to four. Incidentally when I suggested last week that Brooke may respect Flick’s game play and still vote for her even though Flick blind-sided her, I received more correspondence than ever, all of it telling me how wrong I was that Brooke might vote for Flick. This may be the case, I guess we’ll have to wait and see, though we may not get the chance. In any case, on my numbers, whether Flick takes Kristie, Lee, or El, the votes remain the same, she either wins by one or she loses by one. Of course, she’s got a much better chance of getting to the top two if she wins immunity and tries to get Lee voted off. I’d love to see this happen next episode.

El flips her shit

El is angling for a job as a gymnastics judge after Survivor…

Wow, it did not take El long to turn nasty there. This was a serious case of Jek-El & Hyde. The woman whose vocabulary thus far in the game consisted 25% ‘yeah’ and 25% ‘ok’ suddenly ain’t so agreeable anymore. Though to be honest this was a good move from her. She needed to turn on Flick and put her on the spot in order for Kristie to maybe have second thoughts. Flick for her part probably played it too diplomatically. Of course, Flick should never have told El what the plan was. Does nobody read this? You never, ever tell somebody that you are voting them out. It never works (please prove me wrong in the comments). My guess is that Flick was thinking two things when she did this. Firstly, I genuinely believe that Flick counted El as a friend and wanted to maintain that friendship out of the game. Secondly, I suspect that Flick was trying to mitigate any jury fallout, and ensure that she still had El’s vote. Noble intentions, but biggest backfire ever. This is Survivor lady. When you’ve played an underhanded game for fifty days, you can’t then try and play the friendship card, especially with the person you’ve been underhanded with. This is perhaps indicative of El’s social game. El’s relationship with Flick was strong enough that Flick felt it necessary to do that. Furthermore, when El confronted Flick about any final two deals, Flick then had the opportunity to throw El under the balls and tell Kristie that El had promised Flick a threesome with Lee (insert snigger here). Whether she was being too diplomatic, too polite, or was simply just lost for words, that didn’t come up. El had the good sense to end the conversation, grab Lee, and force Kristie into explaining herself, of which I thought she did a pretty good job. Unfortunately, Lee then opened his big fat boofhead mouth didn’t he.

Unsportsmanlike Conduct

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…and the award for most manipulative thing said all season goes to…
So the discussion moves to this bully. Thus far in the game we’ve seen Lee be rather protective of Kristie. Now it seems that he was less being protective of Kristie and more protective of his game (if you can call it that). It was utterly disgusting to see him bully and threaten her during the beach conversation. I’ve never been a fan of the threaten move. It’s an ugly, ugly move. So when he suggested to Kristie that if she voted out El he would push extra hard not to let anybody else win immunity (which is bullshit, he’s a ‘professional’ sportsman for fuck’s sake, we all know he gives 100% EVERY challenge) I was disgusted and enraged. Then to follow that up back at camp by not allowing Kristie to talk to Matt or Flick, and speaking on her behalf, that fucker took it to another level. Poor Kristie just had to sit there like the little kid stuck at the dinner table while their parents are fighting over who gets custody, while this Trumpian oaf completely disrespects her by not allowing her to make her own decisions and treating her like an object to be fought over. Very poor form. Last week we saw Lee play this very scenario much differently. Just listening to and commenting on Kristie’s predicament, but still allowing Kristie to make her own decision. I almost found him to be a good guy in that moment. How wrong I’d have been. It’s a shame that most of the jury didn’t see his vulgar display this episode. But guess what Lee? Australia did. Australia did.

Disappearing Act

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Don’t sell yourself short buddy, you smashed that puzzle challenge!
Unfortunately tonight sees the departure of our beloved Matt. Kudos to Matt on a strong episode. He gave his all in the challenge. He managed to convince Kristie to join he and Flick (momentarily). He stood up for himself while Lee was having a go at him. Plus he had a great line at tribal council for El “so, like, an alliance”. That was gold. Best moment of the past handful of episodes. Could he have done anything tonight to save himself? I guess once shit started going down he could have approached Lee and El and told them he would vote with them against Flick. With Lee and El uncertain of just where Kristie stood they may have gone for that. Unfortunately it would have burned his closest ally left in the game (though after Lee and El’s performance tonight Flick may not give them her jury vote if either of them are in the final two against Matt), and left him with a lot of work to do next episode. But one more tribal is one more tribal, and coming close at winning this challenge means maybe a win next challenge. It’s worth a shot when there’s nothing left to lose. Regardless, we’ll miss you buddy, such a shame you were “pinched at the post”. I hope it didn’t hurt too much mate. That’s Survivor, the turntables don’t always turn your way.
This conversation’s over. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 25 analysis here!

Episode 23 – ‘Spilling the Beans’ OR ‘I Got a Big Mouth’

If you need to check out the previous episode's analysis, then you're at a disadvantage. Check it out here.

I'm afraid my worst fears have been realised, Lee and El are still in the final five. This was all thanks to Kristie deciding that Lee and El were better to move ahead with than Flick. Fuggin mateship and loyalty, bah humbug. Needless to say I don't like this move, and not only because I personally don't like Lee and El. I find them boring and without gameplay. The main reason I don't like this move is because I've long said I think it's very difficult to beat Lee or El in the final two. Is this still the case though?

Knowing the Numbers Well

At the 'getting to know you' challenge last episode we learned that Lee was the most popular contestant and Kristie was the least. If popularity translates to jury votes, then that certainly puts Kristie at a disadvantage if she were to stick with Lee to the final two. It might be time to reexamine this presumption that Lee and El are unbeatable in the final two I've been holding on to for a few episodes now. So let's take a look at the jury numbers though. If we look at the final eleven and forecast and rank who they think is most deserving to win this we end up with the following:
Nick: Flick most deserving, followed closely by, Kristie, Matt, Lee, and El

Kylie: El, Lee, Flick, Kristie, Matt

Sue: Kristie, Lee, El, Flick, Matt (I really don't know what Sue is thinking, but I think she definitely would put Kristie at the top)

JL: Kristie, Flick, Lee, El, and Matt

Brooke: this could go either way, but I'd like to think that she would stick with Flick, followed by El, Lee, Matt, and Kristie

Sam: Matt, Flick, Kristie, El, Lee

Matt: Flick, Kristie, Lee, El

Kristie: Lee, El, Flick, Matt

Flick: El, Matt, Lee, Kristie

El: Lee, Kristie, Flick, Matt

Lee: El, Kristie, Flick, Matt

(Looking forward to the final episode to see how wrong I am. If you disagree please tell me your thoughts in the comments)

Game Changer

Ok, so based on the above presumptions if Kristie went against Lee or El then Kristie actually wins 5 to 4. If she goes against Flick then she loses 5 to 4, unless Brooke still resents Flicks move and votes against her, in which case Kristie wins 5 to 4. And against Matt she wins 6-3. With these numbers Kristie actually has the best chance of winning the game, if she can make it to the final two. Ideally for her though her best bet is to go to final two with Matt, which is going to be hard to pull off with Lee and El still in the game. I can't really see a scenario whereby this could happen. For Kristie to make it to the final two against either Lee or El then Lee and El need to be broken up before final three, because it's a pretty decent bet that Lee or El will win that final immunity if they're both in the final challenge and they will take each other. For Lee and El to be broken up however, Kristie would have to flip against them at some stage, weakening her position with the other, not so much though that the other would consider putting Flick or Matt before Kristie. So the overall impression that I'm getting about Kristie's road ahead is that she will continue to be a floater and there is every possibility that whichever way she floats she may just end up in the final three. Flick's road ahead is a different story altogether.

Bite Me Hard

Once Kristie indicated at tribal that there was a possibility she may not flip with Flick, it weakened Flick's move against Lee and El. Fortunately she had put the wheels in motion for a split vote (very smart Flick!), which would have still resulted in three votes against El. But with Sam's vote neutralized, if Flick had proceeded to vote against El, then it would have resulted in a 2-2 tie, with a possibility that Lee and El would both stay and know that Flick had voted against them. She really had no choice but to flip her vote back with Lee and El. Shame Flick, I would have liked to have seen you smash another alliance. Let's take a look at the jury numbers for Flick. As above, if Brooke votes with her, then she could beat Kristie 5-4. Against Lee and El she needs Brooke's vote to win 5-4. Against Matt she clearly wins with 6 or 7 votes going her way. Getting to the final two is going to be tough though. Firstly, she has to break up Lee and El. Very, very difficult with Kristie seemingly dropping anchor at the Isle of Lee and El. The best bet for Flick now is to win some friggin challenges, because I can't see anybody's wanting to take her to the final two. Good luck Flick. Much like Brooke, you played a very strong game, unfortunately Kristie decided to go another way.

In Need of Magical Scenarios

Similarly for Matt, it looks like the only way he is getting further is by winning some immunity challenges. We know he can do it, they just have to be the right challenges for him. According to the above numbers though, there isn't anyone he can beat at final two. If he does, he is going to have to spin one hell of a story to be able to swing some votes his way. Hopefully for Matt's sake I've got the numbers completely wrong.

Sleeping on a Cloud

img_1228Lee and El are sitting rather pretty right now with the most solid alliance that we've seen all season. It's unlikely that anything can break this alliance now. For either of them to win, the best bet is for one of them to take Matt. They can do that as long as Flick doesn't win immunities. It would require that they flip on each other or Kristie though and that seems unlikely. Or Matt wins the last immunity and makes that decision for them. A quick comment about Lee's comments toward Kristie at camp, telling her that she didn't have to take the 'magical' options. Was this a dig at Matt? If so, that was sly brother. Nice one, and good on you for using a three syllable word.

Exile on Main Beach

img_1094A final note about Sam. Was there a possibility he could have avoided this? Well, the reason he is here is because he sided with Brooke against Lee and El a few episodes ago. This put him in their bad books. Unfortunately he didn't do anything to try and redeem himself get back in their good books. He had an opportunity once Brooke was voted out to go to Lee and El and apologise and lay the blame on Brooke. Unfortunately he did the opposite and told Lee to suck it up. He also had a chance at exile beach, far away in time, to approach the two of them to see if they wanted to work with him. He really did nothing to keep his options open. Kristie, and Flick to some degree, have always kept their options open, and this is reflected in how far they have continued in the game.

Again though, and I hate to keep harping on about this, did no-one look for an idol at exile beach, far away in time? Lee for one should know better! He's been there before and knows that idols are on exile beach, far away in time. J-LaP is still asking if people have them so I presume they're out there. I would have expected Matt or Flick to look for one at their reward as well. I'd love to know if there was one there. If anybody is reading this who knows, please fill me in in the comments. Maybe we'll see one come into play to make things interesting again for our final five.
Three episodes left now and my hopes are pinned on a Flick, Matt or Kristie win. With Lee and El still there this seems increasingly unlikely. Perhaps I'll be pleasantly surprised. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 24 analysis here!