You don’t have to read minds to know how we got to this point, check out the previous episode’s analysis here!
#toteshomo
Well that was a waste of an hour of my life. Drop Your Buffs! has always been about the game of Survivor and not the show, so I’ll try not to spend too much time discussing the banality of this episode, but unfortunately there’ll be some things I just can’t avoid. Anyway, let’s make like Peter and break (it) down.
T Pain
If you think you’re getting anywhere near $500K for an appearance in a ‘dirty magazine’ Tara, I’ve got some bad news for you….
The above may seem a little harsh against Pete, but the truth is listening to Pete talk about his family was the only thing that made me feel anything this episode. I’m a sucker for the family stuff, so it didn’t take me long to get some sympathetic tears flowing. Regardless, the first 15 minutes was all ‘we’ve come so far’. It was a full 15 minutes (without ad break) of uninspired, hackneyed platitudes. That’s a quarter (more than when you factor in ads) of the episode listening to our remaining four essentially say the same thing over and over. How hard it has been to get this far, how they’re so proud of themselves and excited by the prospect of a one in four shot to win $500K. I had to laugh when T-Bone told us that she gave it her all. How many times this season did she tell us she was giving up? Give me a break. Survivor has NEVER been this boring before, the first quarter added NOTHING to the episode, the series, or the individuals’ character arcs. If US Survivor has never served up anything this insipid and vapid, what makes production think that it will work for Australia? Ugh.
Crackin’ Coconuts
I don’t have a witty (or otherwise) caption for this, it’s just a beautiful shot.
The other bookend to this episode was 15 minutes of our flavourless foursome mostly telling us how, to quote Jerkicho, “the ultimate decision”, could mean the difference between $550K and nothing. Really? I’m pretty daft so you better have each of those players plus J-LaP reiterate that over and over again or there’s a possibility I might not comprehend the gravity of the advantage. This was literal face-palm television.
So when you factor in the challenge itself (which I quite enjoyed) was close to another 15 minutes, that leaves only 15 minutes of actual ‘gameplay’. This gameplay consisted of Jerkicho putting the jury into two groups, the ‘I don’t knows’, and the ‘they’re fines’. Apparently Tessa is the only one who doesn’t fall into either of these groups because “I don’t know if she respects gameplay or…”. Doesn’t the “I don’t know” part of that sentence put her into the ‘I don’t know’ group?! Fark me, this was like pulling teeth. Barely watchable. That’s enough episode bashing for now, let’s talk gameplay.
Cleaning the Trash Out of the Room
When you ask Jericho about the mile high club…
The only strategy to chew on tonight was all about which jury member you vote out. And that particular morsel is wafer thin. Of course, you want to vote out the one who is unlikely to vote for you, and who is likely the most vocal about it. I liked that he asked the rest of the players for their opinions. The more info you’ve got on your opponent’s motivations and opinions on how the jury will vote the better. To not do so when given the opportunity would leave you with a myopic view of the opinions of the jury. Of course, they’re going to try and influence you, but there’s valuable info to glean from that. Incidentally did I miss something in the unveiling of the advantage? I didn’t know he could ask questions of the jury until we got to tribal council. I assume he was aware of that some time before council started. I can’t argue against his choice of questions and to whom he asked them. Having never seen this situation before it’s not something I’ve ever pondered. I understand this is the first time ever in US and Aus Survivor history that the remaining players have been able to communicate with the jury prior to the final tribal (fill me in if I’m mistaken). I guess that’s kind of a big deal. I particularly liked the question he asked Anneliese, concerning what might make her sway her mind in a final tribal speech. Nice one. It gives Jerkicho something to consider when developing the speech. Unfortunately, it gives his opponents the same info, but I’d prefer to have the info and know that my opponents did too, than not have the info and be wondering if I’m barking up the wrong tree. One thing I wonder about his decision to vote out Tessa (so fuggin sad to see her go, that’s when I REALLY REALLY cried, would have loved to see her exit interview), is would he have kept her had she picked Michelle as the weakest? I suspect he intends to take Michelle to the end if he can help it, so maybe that’s why he chose Tessa to go. He couldn’t trust that she wouldn’t vote for Michelle. I hope that we find out the specific motivations behind his questions when his game finishes, because I’m certainly intrigued. We may even find out at the finale. I’d like to think that if he makes it to the end, he would leverage this part of his game into his story. Explaining what he did with his opportunity, and how it helped him.
Sweetening up the Competition
Be careful Michelle, you’ll never guess what Happened to the last person T-Bone ‘let into her sugary bucket’
Before I go, could it be argued that T-Bone’s offer of lollies to Michelle is strategic gameplay? Well in T-Bone’s mind it was. I guess at this point she’s got nothing to lose. If it works, great. Another tool in the tool bag, in more ways than one. If not, whatevs. Hopefully we’ll have more to discuss tomorrow, if the preview is anything to go by, with family visits on the agenda, it looks like it will be another tears one. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.
– Russell Feathers
(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)
Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)
Consensus is never the real fact, and Survivor ain’t Survivor unless you’re up to date with Drop Your Buffs! Check out last night’s analysis here.
Clinking the ‘air’ champagne glasses…
As a blogger I hate it when Survivor goes to three nights a week. Damn Channel Ten, give a man a chance to sleep. And there was so much going on tonight that I’m sure this will be a long one. But these last two episodes have made it worth it. Two very, very entertaining episodes. Not only were they choc full of meaty strategy, they were full of laugh out loud moments. Particularly when Jerkicho is involved. It’s true, I love to hate him. It will be sad to see him go. Though I expect not as sad as seeing Zenry go tonight.
All good things come to an end. Certainly our mate has made some genius moves, but has also made some questionable ones. What did Zenry do wrong tonight? Well I would argue that he did nothing wrong this episode. Tonight he was just outplayed, by a tribe working in unison to deceive and not tip their hand. However the roots of this downfall arguably lay in his telling Anneliese he had an idol way back when he moved to Samatau. At the time I thought this was not smart. That it was a late night moment of weakness. I’ve always said that it can be wise to share an idol with someone if you want to solidify a bond. But telling Anneliese this, seemingly in an attempt just to get anyone and everyone on his side, I thought was risky. And then moving against her after having given her this information was not wise. If you’re going to share that information with someone to form a bond, then keep your bond. Only do it if it’s someone that you want to play with long-term, and I don’t think that he had that in mind when he told Anneliese.
Stoking the fire while fanning the flames..
I was shocked to hear that Michelle knew of his idol and wondered if I’d missed something. Then when it was revealed that Anneliese had told Sarah, the penny dropped. When did that happen? Were we the audience aware of this already? Please fill me in below if that’s the case. It also means that Sarah told Michelle. When did THAT happen?!?! Have there been conversations that I have totally missed?!?! Or is Channel Ten just keeping some important conversations from us to make the game more surprising for viewers, and commentators like me, later? If that’s the case, I’m not sure I like it. Survivor has never kept from us who had the idols and who knew (other than episode 2 this season, where it was kind of the point of the episode, and an anti-climax). Regardless, that Sarah knew and told Michelle reveals so much. At merge we did not know the old Asaga dynamic at all, and as the Two previous episodes have focused on Samatau and the big players, I wasn’t sure where Luke, Jerkicho, Michelle, and Sarah stood and what their game plan was (or is it just that I’m obtuse?). We now know that they are working together, for the moment. And that the Cookie Alliance was not a voting block, or at least not with Zenry. Clearly Sarah, Luke, and Jerkicho are strong right now. And Sarah had a killer night tonight.
That Sarah could trick Zenry into thinking that she was pissed about losing reward (her line “an act to create visible distance between Tess and myself” is pure Survivor poetry), and then play it so cool at tribal, reinforcing to Zenry that she will vote the easy option… Masterclass! If modeling falls through for Sarah, she should give acting a shot. Her manipulation of Jerkicho was delicious. Sweeter than jam on a cookie, chased with champagne.
Incidentally I did really love the imagery of seeing Zenry stoke the fire while he was trying to inflame Sarah’s bitterness of being left out of the Champagne reward.
I hate to say this because it looks like I’m just floating from favourite to favourite here, and while we haven’t seen her be quite this tactical and manipulative before, I think we always suspected she had it in her, and is now in a great position. Especially as it doesn’t at all look like this was her move. To others it looks like this move was orchestrated by Luke, Tess, and Michelle. If she makes it to final tribal it would behoove her to convince the jury that she was behind the move to get Zenry out. But for now she can let everyone think that it was the others. Stay under the radar, and let the threats take the heat. If she really has Michelle in her pocket she needs to keep her there, because Luke and Jerkicho aren’t going to stick with Sarah once their backs are against the wall. If she can also cultivate a relationship with T-Bone, I think she will come in useful for Sarah in the future. I have been high on Sarah here, but I need to give Tess some credit too.
I was hoping the jam on those breakfast eclairs brought back talk of #jamgate
Great job winning immunity Tessa. I’m not even going to make a ball joke. Great job with your pick for reward companion. You said it yourself, Michelle is an emotional voter. If you didn’t know that before the previous episode, I’m glad that you’ve learnt that now. More on the auction later, I will quickly say now how hard it is under pressure to pick a reward companion. She couldn’t have chosen much better tonight. I wonder if that was her plan once the auction started. Where to for Tess now? Great question. In some ways I think she was lucky tonight that the old Asaga alliance had the same target she did. I don’t think she’ll be so lucky in future. What to do though with this knowledge that old Asaga want the big players out? Two options; continue to work with old Asaga to take them out of the game buying you at least two tribals, or work with Ziggy and Locky to keep them around as a shield. Which of these is better for Tess long term? At the moment my head is saying Ziggy needs to go sooner rather than later. With an immunity idol under her belt (is Locky the only other one that knows this?), and being stronger and more likeable than Locky, she is a way bigger threat. I would be doing whatever I could to get her out of the game as soon as possible. For Tessa she needs to find a way to do it that doesn’t perpetuate the idea in Locky that Tessa is gunning for them. I suggest use Michelle again. Michelle already mentioned during champagne alliance night that Locky was second on her list. Just nudge her a little, and stay out of the firing line. If she gets the chance to do so surreptitiously she should try and convince Locky that she is with him. Vote with him two or three tribals from now to remove Sarah or Luke, then flip back to work with Jerkicho and Michelle to get through to the end. Though I can’t see either Jerkicho or Michelle winning this game, I do wonder what they should be doing to get as far as they can.
Is it wrong to get someone drunk on Survivor to find out who has the idol?
I mentioned above that Michelle will likely be influenced by Tessa and gun for Locky now. Is that the right move for her though? If Locky were smart he’d do the same as Tess and try and take her under his wing. She’s already shown him that she will follow him (the Anneliese vote) if she feels lost. So if we suppose that Locky and Tess are her two options, which way is best for her? I feel like this requires more thinking than I have in me tonight. Especially if we throw Sarah into the mix. My first instinct is that both Sarah and Tess will see her value as a goat and are more likely to use her to get to the end and potentially take her with them. Locky on the other hand is too tight with Ziggy, and much more likely to throw Michelle under the balls when it suits him, preferring to take T-Bone to the end. So Michelle should go with both Tess and Sarah until they target one another, and reassess then.
I’ve said in previous posts that Jerkicho won’t win. I stand by that. There’s still value in considering his options though. Sticking with Luke seems a no-brainer, I see no reason at this stage to suggest turning on that alliance. If I know Jerkicho (and I don’t) I think he’ll actually do just that pretty soon. I do suggest doing it before the end as he’ll never beat him at final tribal. Jerkicho’s only bet to win is to go against Tara or Michelle (or maybe even Peter) at final tribal. His only way to get there is to stay strong with Luke. Take out Ziggy ASAP. Then work towards getting Tess or Pete out, then move against Sarah before she tries to split you and Luke up. From there you need to get the lay of the land with where Locky is and where Tess or Pete is, and move whichever way is going to get yourself and Luke closer to a final four with Tara and Michelle. This is the plan for Luke too, however Luke isn’t quite as limited as to who he can beat in a final two and therefore doesn’t have quite as narrow a path to the end.
This game seems to be changing so much from episode to episode. Last episode it looked that Locky and Ziggy were in a powerful position. At that point we didn’t know that old Asaga were so tight. We know better now and, it’s clear that Locky and Ziggy are now in a sticky situation. I suggest they have two options from here; attempt to align with Pete and Tess (and T-Bone) giving them the numbers to take out old Asaga, or try and convince old Asaga that Tess is a bigger threat than they are. Both of these options will only get them so far and the reality is that the rest of the tribe will want to split the two of them up. I think they should stick together if they continue to win immunity, after that the best bet is for each of them to try and remove the other the first chance they get. Neither will take the other to the final two, and either of them is a shot to win the final immunity challenge, so it’s too risky to take the other even to the final three.
I love Auction and this is one of the most fun, and most perplexing, I’ve witnessed. Firstly, the twist. Great! Provided a lot of fun watching Luke take all that food, and other advantage. Also has the effect of motivating future players to bid early rather than hold on to their cash waiting for idols/advantages/home and family contact. Speaking of home contact, I was surprised that we had this so soon after letters from home, but I wasn’t complaining. It had me bawling as usual. I watched the episode twice and was sobbing both times. I suspect that if I ever get to play the game, as much as I think I’d want to stay strong and hold out bidding until an advantage or idol clue or something comes up (depending on how comfortable I feel), I just know that the second a phone call is mentioned I couldn’t help myself. I would be all in. All chips on the table. What I do wonder is which is the better advantage; the challenge advantage, or the reward meal/night with guests? Both options have pros and cons. I really am bum-puzzled about which is the more beneficial. What would you pick and why? Let me know in the comments. I was surprised no one seemed to be looking for idols or clues on their night away. I thought for sure there’d be at least a clue there after two were played the night before. This time last year in the same reward there was no idol or clue so that seems to be a pattern for us here in Australia.
What Zenry did was part of the game. What Jerkicho did here was just spiteful and malicious.
I was perplexed by those who players who didn’t bid on food. I expected they were therefore waiting for advantage or home/family contact. Why did they not bid as high as they could out of the gate when those things came up? Maybe they were not that familiar with how the auction worked. I’m not sure how I feel about the drawing rocks solution to multiple max bids. Usually it’s first in with a max bid gets the spoils. That one person could lose all their money and not get anything, even when they knew what they were bidding on, seems unfair on the face of it. I’ll let my thinking on this gestate for a little before I make up my mind though. What are your thoughts? I can’t finish this post and this section on the auction without taking the opportunity to once again underline an instance of Jerkicho being a jerk. Making Tess work for her reward when he could never outbid her. We know who the real ‘Mothertrucker is tonight’. What Zenry did was playing the game. What Jerkicho did here was just spiteful and malicious. Just a jerk, jerk move. It made me feel better when he made like George W. Bush and stuffed up the ‘fool me once…’ adage…
Oh no he di’nt…
And now, I can finally get some sleep. Three nights a week is a killer. Four next week if Aus Survivor is three nights again and you count US Survivor. As much as I’d love to there’s no way I can post about US Survivor as well as Australian. That would almost be a full-time job! And I’m afraid I’m not in a position where burley men in baseball caps give me envelopes of money with which to buy food. I have to actually work for my money.
Oh he did. He really did.
One thing I will take time to write about though, hopefully before the end of the season, is an entire post on Henry’s game. I’d really love to take the time to break down all of the moves he made and see where the value is and what to avoid. Even though he didn’t get to the end, I’m not convinced that his flip to Samatau was a bad move. He threw so much at the game there’s a lot to chew on and I think it will be an interesting exercise. Tell me what you think and stay tuned. Until next week, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
– Russell Feathers
*You may or may not have noticed that this post is full of links to songs by The Who (and one by The Rolling Stones). Did you find them all?! Unfortunately I couldn’t add links to the references in the title so here they are: ‘Won’t Get Fooled Again‘, ‘Bubbly O’Riley‘.
(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)
Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)
Don’t get caught saying the ‘F’ word, get the lowdown on the lead up to this episode by checking out the previous analysis here!
Just after this T-Bone literally said “if somebody flops a bit, it’s dangerous”. That’s what my ex-wife used to say too…
Welcome to one of the most entertaining episodes this season. From hijinx to strategy this episode had it all. Let’s not waste time in the preamble, let’s get straight into the biggest talking point.
Wish In One Hand, Dirt In The Other
Totes homo
Holy shit!! Was this the first time we have ever seen anybody get the same idol twice? This was delicious television. More importantly, it was great social and strategic gameplay from Zenry. Having given Jerkicho the clue, there was always going to be the risk that Jerkicho (and therefore others at old Asaga) thought that Zenry had kept the idol for himself. What he has pulled off here is nothing short of inspired. This negates the effect of any suspicion while strengthening the bond they have. Pure genius.
After Jerkicho’s sneaky underlining of Jarrad’s name last episode, this is exactly what this viewer needed to see. Egg on Jerkicho’s face. The other thing that was on Jerkicho’s face, was Jam.
Conserving Your Energy (you read that correctly, I went there)
Even to a self-professed Luke/Jerkicho detractor, this scene was finger-lickin good
For those who’ve read me analysis before, I’ve often pondered whether the stealing of the food is worth the risk. Usually I’ve sided the way of, if you’re reasonably certain you can get away with it, and you are a good liar, then go for it. I’m a terrible liar, so for me to do it I would need to make sure that nobody even knew it was gone. The Cookie Alliance (sans Sarah) were all over this like the CWA on a scone. I suspect that Jerkicho and Luke’s motivation was just to have some cheeky fun. For Zenry, it was all about continuing to strengthen the bond with the guys. He also was quick to see the value in letting it become the annoying mosquito at the BBQ. Let this controversy get stuck in the craw of those galahs who are still scrambling to find their footing post merge. He didn’t stoke the fire, he didn’t need to, but he was more than happy to let it keep burning. Would he have decided to eat the jam by himself? Unlikely, he has too much to lose. If they were discovered he has two other jokers who can share the load of the rest of the tribe’s ire. I guess the risk though is that it outs them as a strong alliance. I guess one could always argue say that it was just about the food. I guess I should probably get away from background gameplay now and actually start discussing the immediate gameplay and it’s outcome.
Faking My Harlequin
Gon’ miss this face 😢
Firstly, I don’t really think of Anneliese as a ‘harlequin’, I just wanted to take the opportunity to throw in a Robert Pollard reference (rock out here). Back to the game, and specifically Anneliese’s game. I have to say I’m really sad to see her go. I also feel that I deserve egg on my face after being so high on her position in the previous episode’s analysis. In my defence, there were a number of things we didn’t know. Primarily, her relationship with Locky and Zenry. Previous post I asked why Locky and Zenry left Anneliese out of the Jarrad vote. What it seems like actually happened, was that they did approach her, and she chose not to vote with them. This appear to be her fatal mistake. I’ve been going over and over in my head whether I had known this information yesterday I would have advised her to work with Locky and Zenry, or stick with Samatau. Unfortunately I can’t un-know knowing that she went home tonight, and so there’s no way I can objectively say what I would have suggested in that situation. This is why I love Survivor so much, it’s such a dynamic game. It’s also what frustrates me about watching it. That I’m not there playing it with them.
His words not mine
Before I get off Anneliese I need to talk about the fake conversation. When Locky asked Anneliese if he could have his idol, my first thought was that she should absolutely tell him that she would play it for him at tribal. We sure as hell know from her POV that this is a fake conversation, we don’t know that Locky feels the same way though. I suspect that Locky is so wrapped up in his own ego that he could not help but believe that were it offered to him. It was at least worth a try. If she’s not worried about losing his vote, there’s no reason not to lie to him in this way. If it didn’t have any effect on his plans, it would not have negatively impacted her game any further. It may have been just enough to placate him a little and perhaps we would not have ended up in a situation where Ziggy felt that it would be necessary to play her Super-Idol. Speaking of Ziggy, I feel somewhat responsible for tonight’s outcome.
Devilish Handling of an Idol Play Thing
“I’d like to walk like a supermodel please”
You may remember that in the previous analysis I suggested that the best move from Ziggy would be to align with Locky. Obviously she reads my shit. So obviously I think this was the right move for Ziggy. Some may argue that it was a waste of a Super-Idol. That it should be saved for a greater threat later in the game, and when her neck is on the chopping block. I disagree. I think the Super-Idol was a burden, and to get rid of it in a way that solidifies a bond when you need one is a great way to play. Quick clarification if anyone can help me out. Is Ziggy still left with a regular idol? I was confused when the Super-Idol was introduced, I wasn’t sure if it had the power tonight, plus regular idol power, and whether these two powers had to be used in the same tribal or not. If you know, fill me in in the comments. Regardless, old Samatau was a sinking boat. She didn’t really have a choice but to flip. This is however going to make things interesting within the new majority. Zenry has already made his feelings for Ziggy known, so it’s only a matter of time that he goes for her. From here she is going to have to find a new target, one that Locky can get behind. Likely Michelle. Given that Tessa is probably going to vote that way too, it makes sense to me.
Let’s Tess-ellate
“Scratch that, what’s the singular of ‘friends’?”
I can’t recall whether it was Tessa or Pete that turned to the other post eviction and said something along the lines of “guess it’s just me and you now”. It’s sad. I’m a big Tess fan and she is really up against it now. In the previous analysis I suggested that Tessa should, and probably would, find a trouble-maker to throw under the balls. For now she needs to identify who that person is that people think is dodgy AF, and systematically gather up all the shade she can throw it their way. I suspect that person will be Michelle. I’m hoping it’s Jerkicho or T-Bone (incidentally did anyone else think it ironic when T-Bone said “`it’s been too easy” after (seemingly) sitting by the fire all day while everyone else scrambled and maneuvered to push through the game). It could even be Sarah. I know I haven’t touched on old Asaga much this episode, we didn’t see much of them. But one thing is for sure, they can only stay out of the shadows for so long, especially with Tess looking to get herself out of a sticky situation. Perhaps there is the clue for who she needs to target. Those with sticky (jam covered) fingers.
Keep #jamgate alive!!!! Until tomorrow, I’ve got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
– Russell Feathers
(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)
Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)
Don’t be caught spewin’, know how we got here by catching up on yesterday’s analysis.
I don’t need to add a thing to this, it’s perfectly delicious! I could watch it for hours.
Finally we got exactly what we asked for and know the dynamics of the Samatau tribe. And oh how quickly the game has turned. I must admit heading in to tribal, everything about the edit, not just this episode, but this series, was telling me that AK (Male Rebel Wilson) was going tonight. I would have been unhappy, but not surprised if this were the case. So for it to turn out the way it did? Well let’s just say that there was so much fist pumping going on in my loungeroom that you might think CENSORED CENSORED CENSORED all over the CENSORED CENSORED. But was this actually the best move for the new dominant alliance in Samatau?
You Done Messed Up A-A-Ron! (maybe he didn’t but I really wanted to use that line)
Premature high five?
Before I get started on whether Aimee was the right target, I need to acknowledge something that AK did tonight that I thought was exquisite. When he was telling us that he needed one more number, and that he thinks he might be able to get Peter, I was screaming at the TV “Get Jarrad to do it!!”. Thankfully he heard me. To hear AK then tell us that this was a better job for Jarrad because Jarrad has a softer approach, well I was really impressed with the insight that he showed. He’s come a long way from episode one where he was a complete bull at a gate. Itching to get into it. It didn’t just come across as shady, it actually came across as insincere. Since nearly going home in episode 2 for it, he may not have changed his strategy in terms of manouvering, but he certainly changed his social game. Whenever I’ve seen him speak with others recently he’s come across as very sincere and humble. Well done sir.
Ooh, go easy JLP!
Back to targeting Aimee, let’s think this through for AK. This move has undermined Locky’s power in the game certainly. Now that we finally know that Peter, Jarrad, and even Ziggy feel vulnerable under his rule, why not vote him out? Is it about keeping Locky around as a meat shield? Much like week old Devon though, that’s some very risky meat though (I know I know, devon’s barely meat, but it feels good to talk about Devon). Locky’s not going to go down without a fight. I feel he still has it in him to convince Ziggy and others to flip back and vote out AK as he’s clearly such a strategic threat. We heard Ziggy say that she is in a final three alliance with AK and Jarrad, but we’ve only heard her say that to AK. I did feel a little that AK was coming on too strong when he was trying to sure up his position in the eyes of Locky, Tara, and Aimee. And good on Tara for having the insight to still be very wary of him.
It seems to me now that Locky was a better target.
So from here we see both Locky and Tara, both influential, in a position where they are going to fight hard and probably not going to flip against each other. Had Locky been removed then we would be left with Aimee and Tara. They don’t seem to be particularly loyal to one another, and it had already been determined that Aimee was a sheep. The new alliance could easily scoop Aimee up in the battle to remove Anneliese or Tara. It seems to me now that Locky was a better target. Particularly for AK who had everything to lose. It was not like if the plan against Locky hadn’t worked then AK would be stuck on a tribe with Locky after trying to vote him out, AK’d be gone. I hope to be proven wrong that this this was the wrong move. Time will tell. So what can Locky do now?
No Longer a Misfit, So it’s Time for Loki’s Mischief (do Norse mythology references work in this blog?)
Modesty’s not really your forte either is it dude?
He’s been thrown a lifeline, what should he do with it? Presumably he still has Tara and Anneliese in his corner. Are there two others that would flip back to their side and vote with them? I don’t think there are. At this point, imminent merge/shuffle notwithstanding (which I had predicted could be as soon as the next episode, but wasn’t mentioned in the preview, leading me to reconsider), I suspect the best way for him to save himself now is to flip on Tara or Anneliese. Tessa fuggin hates Tara (much like myself) and would be happy to see her go. It’s true that AK is a threat but everybody already knows that, they’ll want him gone eventually, but are happy to use him as their number for now. In this sense, AK could almost be Locky’s meat shield (now that’s some smelly baloney!). So I suggest Locky’s best move is to go and apologise to AK for not working with him and for being so arrogant, and make moves against Tara. However I don’t suspect this is within Locky’s repertoire, he’s too proud and, despite his protestations at the previous tribal, he loves being the alpha male and would never submit to someone like AK, even just for appearances. What about T-Bone (Tara for those who’ve been following the analysis since episode 1) now?
T-Bone Gettin’ Cooked!
“How do you like your steak?”
Just as it was for Locky, my suggestion for Tara would be to show some humility here. She was outplayed. Judging the preview of tomorrow night however, as we would actually expect from T-Bone, she clicks it. Digging a hole for herself making it easier for Locky and Anneliese to piss down on her. Given what we learnt tonight about her relationship with P-Styles (I’m trying that out for Peter, let me know what you think. Maybe P-Con?), perhaps the better move would be to have a chat with him, and try and work her way back into the tribe’s good books. Or at least find out if there’s a possibility she can shift the target from her to anyone else. Will she do this? Guess we won’t know until we get there.
You Can’t Spell ‘Anneliese’ Without ‘Lies’
I’m not touching that one…
I imagine things are feeling shaky for Anneliese now too. Is there a way she can ingratiate herself back into the now dominant alliance? I don’t know that she has any relationship with any of those players. It is important for her however to find out where Locky’s head is at. There’s a possibility he could flip on her to save himself and Tara. If she gets the impression that this is a possibility, then vote with the new alliance. Tara and Locky are the bigger threats here so it’s best for her to blend in to the background somewhat and let the heat flow their way. Ultimately as long as Locky and T-Bone don’t try to throw her under the balls, I don’t think it makes a difference if she votes with them or against them. With a merge/shuffle likely around the corner and the two of them bigger threats than she is and should be safe until then. Play it cool Anneliese.
Paging Dr. Comeback
“Ooh Jarrad it’s not just the storm that’s making me wet.”
I’m so glad Dr. T is still around. She makes things so much more interesting. Her play here is pretty simple. Lay low. There’s much bigger targets around than here. Start subtly working the social relationship with Zig-a-zig-ah, P-Con and Jarrad (sorry Jazzy J, I don’t have a nickname for you yet) and vote whichever way you’re told. Like Markzan, I have confidence in you. Unlike Markzan, I don’t show it by voting against you.
P(eter)eanut butter and J(arrad)elly
Jarrad’s vote could swing either way #toteshomo
Welcome to the game lads. To be fair I’m sure they’ve been playing a solid game thus far, we just haven’t been seeing it. I suspect they’ve been going with the flow waiting for a time like this to nudge the game in their favour. Well done men. Looking forward to seeing more from you. Pearl Jam (does that work for Peter and Jarrad or is it a stretch? Fuck it, I’m going with it) now find themselves in a position of power. The best move for them is to stick with AK, Tess and Zig until merge/shuffle, vote out Locky, and go from there. Too risky to keep Locky around and I don’t think Tess or AK are going to flip against them. Things are pretty solid for the next few tribals for them unless something ridiculous happens.
Little Tribe Blue, Where Are You?
We are at 66% Samatau!
I’m well aware that I haven’t talked Asaga at all this post, that’s because there’s nothing of note to talk of there. I’m not even going to utter the C-word. You know, the one Jericho is no longer munching on. To quote Jerkicho himself, the tribe, or what we’re being shown of it is “booooring”.
Before I go a quick note to say how happy I am that we’re five episodes in and have had a boot every night. Thanks for listening to the fans channel ten. I hope I haven’t jinxed it.
Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
– Russell Feathers
(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)
Don’t let your cat get eaten by a mouse. If you wanna be on the ball your best bet is to have read the previous episode’s analysis.
There was not chance we were going to top last night’s episode in terms of stuff to talk about. But there’s enough gristle here to get our teeth into. Let’s start with how a ‘miracle’ saved Tessa.
Kiss Goodbye Kate
The departure of Adam last night meant the disintegration of the alliance he was in. We’re of course talking about Tessa, Kate, Tara, and Ziggy. Though we don’t know just how tight and aligned they were, with last night’s vote seemingly making contestants make the decision between voting Adam off or keeping him around, a split in perceived allegiances was inevitable. Tara and Ziggy made the decision to side against Adam and if you read last night’s analysis you know that this was the right move. More on this later. Where it’s left Tessa and Kate though is out in no man’s land.
Sadly, they didn’t do much to help their situation. Instead of trying to integrate themselves back with the rest of the tribe, they just hung out together and talked to Markzan. This is much like what Sue and JL did in their final days last season. Their back was against the wall, and all they seemed to do was complain to each other about it.
Kate at least came up with a plan to convince AK (Male Rebel Wilson for those playing along) to swing their way. The problem was, her pitch was extremely transparent and aggressive. She hadn’t built the relationship with MRW enough for him to seriously consider it. And to be honest, I can’t imagine he would have ever considered it having narrowly escaped death the previous round. The last thing he wants to do is rock the boat, regardless of any idol clues that may be hiding within.
So Tessa and Kate try and throw some shade at Tara. The fact that thus far neither one of them tried to reintegrate with their tribemates (if we’re to believe the editing), the next best thing for each of them is to vote against the other. Especially when they’ve got Markzan as a number. If I were either of them I’d be going to Markzan and trying to gain his vote against the other. Perhaps that’s exactly what Tessa did. It seems that Markzan did actually have the deciding vote, with the other eight players voting a 4-4 straight split. Wonder why they did that.
What was it that ultimately sent Kate home over Tessa? I suspect it simply came down to their social game and likeablility. As above, Kate was ultra aggressive in her confrontation with AK, especially when you compare it to the way Tessa did it, and the way she chatted with Jarrad. So where to for Tessa from here?
Paging Dr. Miracle
Nurse get me 20CC of hidden immunity idol stat!
Normally in this situation I’d say it’s time to lay low, be friendly, and hope that the tribe doesn’t lose the next challenge. But given all the shade she’s thrown at Tara, and the way that has rattled Tara, I actually feel like it’s worthwhile testing the tribe to see just how much, if any, of that mud stuck (I know I’m mixing metaphors, mud can be shady!). She seems to have some relationship with AK and Jarrad. It’s worthwhile nurturing that. I can’t see her getting back in the good books with Ziggy, Anneliese, or Tara. Locky leads by agreeing to do what Ziggy and Anneliese want. And Aimee does whatever Locky says. That leaves Tarzan, who at this stage looks like he doesn’t give a shit (I wouldn’t be surprised if he quit in the next few episodes), and Peter. Peter did make a comment about Tessa’s hypocrisy at tribal but I don’t know for sure that he’s off Tessa completely. I’d love to hear more from Peter.
The Numbers
Used to be a whole tau, now there’s only Samatau left….
By this stage last season I was in a position where I was able to run down each individual player in a tribe and make suggestions on what they’re next move should be. I can’t quite do that this season. This is the drawback of starting with two twelve person tribes. There’s still so many people we don’t know anything about, we don’t know where everybody’s stands in their alliance and Peter’s a good example of this. I have no idea where he stands, what his aims are, and who he’s close to. When we started with tribes of eight, the tribal lines seemed clearer sooner. Not that I’m complaining. I really like that we’ve got two tribes. I hope they don’t change this anytime soon. When they’re down to 19 players is when I suspect they’ll move to three tribes. As I mentioned above though, we can talk Tara (AKA T-Bone).
High Steaks
Ooh, saucy!
Above I stated that for T-Bone to jump off the Adam boat was the right move. The bigger question is though, did T-Bone do it the right way? Certainly she could have done it better. The first thing she needed to do when they got back to camp was to go and have a chat with Tessa and Kate and explain to them why she voted against Adam and to reassure them that they can still work together. Instead, she was standoffish and only deflected pointed questions rather than confronting them. Unfortunately she’s not a good liar. You may be saying that she’s still there so no big loss. I disagree. So much mud was thrown her way at the tribal that people can’t help but see her as dirty. Even at tribal she could have just owned the move. She could have agreed that she had flipped and justified why she did it. I don’t think she did a particularly good job of that. So where to for her now? I did get the feeling that with all that heat that came her way at tribal, she’s going to have to get do something to turn the heat down or she’s soon going to be cooked. Ziggy and Locky seem to be the people you need to get on side, so she needs to do what she can to sure them up and let them know that she is definitely with them. In doing so, she also needs to throw heat back at the barefoot conTessa.
Practicing sans knife
She’ll have to tread carefully to do so, she doesn’t want to come off like the crazy person that she is being painted. But shots are fired and she needs to fire back otherwise I suspect Tessa does have the ability to actually swing the tribe away from T-Bone and towards herself. That’s my take anyway, I suspect that there’s many of you out there that think the opposite. Give me your opinion in the comments.
Knifing the Spooners
Smark’s bid to take the spooning title from Lee and Sam.
Oh Zenry, what the hell were you thinking this episode? To me this was a masterclass in what not to do. Firstly, I’m glad that his alliance with Jacqui is strong. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, I really like them as a power couple as they remind me a little of Malcolm and Denise. They’re cute. And I like the fact that they’ve kind of got their own thing going. Unfortunately, while this may have been something of a secret to the rest of the tribe in the past, they’ve since been spending too much time together and it’s become obvious to the rest of the tribe that they’re in cahoots. Both he and Jacqui were pissed off that Samantha had sent The Marksman (not sure if that works yet), but as far as I’m concerned that’s on them. They’ve been acting too sketchy, that’s why Sam was on to them. That’s what not to do number one.
Shots fired or drawing blanks?
The second, I can’t believe we’re talking about this again; THROWING A CHALLENGE?!?!?! Are you kidding me? There is zero reason to do this. What damage is she doing other than being annoyingly paranoid and acting threateningly? There’s plenty of time to let her dig her own grave. I get that eventually you want to break the power that is in her relationship/alliance with Mark (can we call them SaMarktha? Smark?), but we haven’t even had a first merge/tribe shake up. That might happen naturally in reshuffle. Alternatively, knowing that Smark are onto you and Jacqui as a couple maybe the better move is to join forces and become a tight foursome before the reshuffle. Four votes is huge when you’ve got eleven people left in a tribe. Here’s a real marriage of convenience you can take advantage of, until there’s about to be a reshuffle (I can’t imagine they’re not all speculating about when that will happen), then it’s time to make that move.
“I hate power couples”, says the man claiming to be in a power couple
I’m very much looking forward to seeing more of Asaga because I’d love to know what the moving pieces are over there, and just why it is that Zenry is sticking his neck out now. It will also be interesting to know just what Kent’s up to with his tipping off Jacqui and Zenry that Sam sent Mark on the reconnaissance mission. I anticipate juiciness ahead.
One week, three episodes down. I’m pleasantly surprised that we’ve had three eliminations, I thought for sure tonight would fire a blank. Until next week, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
– Russell Feathers
(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)
Especially when they’ve got Markzan as a number. If I were either of them I’d be going to Markzan and trying to gain his vote against the other. Perhaps that’s exactly what Tessa did. It seems that Markzan did actually have the deciding vote, with the other eight players voting a 4-4 straight split. Wonder why they did that.
Drop Your Buffs! 