Episode 18 – ‘Won’t Get Fooled Again’ OR ‘Bubbly O’Riley’*

Consensus is never the real fact, and Survivor ain’t Survivor unless you’re up to date with Drop Your Buffs! Check out last night’s analysis here.

***Clinking the ‘air’ champagne glasses…***

As a blogger I hate it when Survivor goes to three nights a week. Damn Channel Ten, give a man a chance to sleep. And there was so much going on tonight that I’m sure this will be a long one. But these last two episodes have made it worth it. Two very, very entertaining episodes. Not only were they choc full of meaty strategy, they were full of laugh out loud moments. Particularly when Jerkicho is involved. It’s true, I love to hate him. It will be sad to see him go. Though I expect not as sad as seeing Zenry go tonight.

Behind Blue Eyes

All good things come to an end. Certainly our mate has made some genius moves, but has also made some questionable ones. What did Zenry do wrong tonight? Well I would argue that he did nothing wrong this episode. Tonight he was just outplayed, by a tribe working in unison to deceive and not tip their hand. However the roots of this downfall arguably lay in his telling Anneliese he had an idol way back when he moved to Samatau. At the time I thought this was not smart. That it was a late night moment of weakness. I’ve always said that it can be wise to share an idol with someone if you want to solidify a bond. But telling Anneliese this, seemingly in an attempt just to get anyone and everyone on his side, I thought was risky. And then moving against her after having given her this information was not wise. If you’re going to share that information with someone to form a bond, then keep your bond. Only do it if it’s someone that you want to play with long-term, and I don’t think that he had that in mind when he told Anneliese.

*Stoking the fire while fanning the flames..*

I was shocked to hear that Michelle knew of his idol and wondered if I’d missed something. Then when it was revealed that Anneliese had told Sarah, the penny dropped. When did that happen? Were we the audience aware of this already? Please fill me in below if that’s the case. It also means that Sarah told Michelle. When did THAT happen?!?! Have there been conversations that I have totally missed?!?! Or is Channel Ten just keeping some important conversations from us to make the game more surprising for viewers, and commentators like me, later? If that’s the case, I’m not sure I like it. Survivor has never kept from us who had the idols and who knew (other than episode 2 this season, where it was kind of the point of the episode, and an anti-climax). Regardless, that Sarah knew and told Michelle reveals so much. At merge we did not know the old Asaga dynamic at all, and as the Two previous episodes have focused on Samatau and the big players, I wasn’t sure where Luke, Jerkicho, Michelle, and Sarah stood and what their game plan was (or is it just that I’m obtuse?). We now know that they are working together, for the moment. And that the Cookie Alliance was not a voting block, or at least not with Zenry. Clearly Sarah, Luke, and Jerkicho are strong right now. And Sarah had a killer night tonight.

Who Are You?

***Sarah, Michelle, Fella (see what I did there?)***

That Sarah could trick Zenry into thinking that she was pissed about losing reward (her line “an act to create visible distance between Tess and myself” is pure Survivor poetry), and then play it so cool at tribal, reinforcing to Zenry that she will vote the easy option… Masterclass! If modeling falls through for Sarah, she should give acting a shot. Her manipulation of Jerkicho was delicious. Sweeter than jam on a cookie, chased with champagne.
Incidentally I did really love the imagery of seeing Zenry stoke the fire while he was trying to inflame Sarah’s bitterness of being left out of the Champagne reward.
I hate to say this because it looks like I’m just floating from favourite to favourite here, and while we haven’t seen her be quite this tactical and manipulative before, I think we always suspected she had it in her, and is now in a great position. Especially as it doesn’t at all look like this was her move. To others it looks like this move was orchestrated by Luke, Tess, and Michelle. If she makes it to final tribal it would behoove her to convince the jury that she was behind the move to get Zenry out. But for now she can let everyone think that it was the others. Stay under the radar, and let the threats take the heat. If she really has Michelle in her pocket she needs to keep her there, because Luke and Jerkicho aren’t going to stick with Sarah once their backs are against the wall. If she can also cultivate a relationship with T-Bone, I think she will come in useful for Sarah in the future. I have been high on Sarah here, but I need to give Tess some credit too.

(Pin)Ball Wizard

***I was hoping the jam on those breakfast eclairs brought back talk of #jamgate***

Great job winning immunity Tessa. I’m not even going to make a ball joke. Great job with your pick for reward companion. You said it yourself, Michelle is an emotional voter. If you didn’t know that before the previous episode, I’m glad that you’ve learnt that now. More on the auction later, I will quickly say now how hard it is under pressure to pick a reward companion. She couldn’t have chosen much better tonight. I wonder if that was her plan once the auction started. Where to for Tess now? Great question. In some ways I think she was lucky tonight that the old Asaga alliance had the same target she did. I don’t think she’ll be so lucky in future. What to do though with this knowledge that old Asaga want the big players out? Two options; continue to work with old Asaga to take them out of the game buying you at least two tribals, or work with Ziggy and Locky to keep them around as a shield. Which of these is better for Tess long term? At the moment my head is saying Ziggy needs to go sooner rather than later. With an immunity idol under her belt (is Locky the only other one that knows this?), and being stronger and more likeable than Locky, she is a way bigger threat. I would be doing whatever I could to get her out of the game as soon as possible. For Tessa she needs to find a way to do it that doesn’t perpetuate the idea in Locky that Tessa is gunning for them. I suggest use Michelle again. Michelle already mentioned during champagne alliance night that Locky was second on her list. Just nudge her a little, and stay out of the firing line. If she gets the chance to do so surreptitiously she should try and convince Locky that she is with him. Vote with him two or three tribals from now to remove Sarah or Luke, then flip back to work with Jerkicho and Michelle to get through to the end. Though I can’t see either Jerkicho or Michelle winning this game, I do wonder what they should be doing to get as far as they can.

Gimme Shelter (I know, it’s not The Who, but it’s close, and fits our episode)

***Is it wrong to get someone drunk on Survivor to find out who has the idol?***

I mentioned above that Michelle will likely be influenced by Tessa and gun for Locky now. Is that the right move for her though? If Locky were smart he’d do the same as Tess and try and take her under his wing. She’s already shown him that she will follow him (the Anneliese vote) if she feels lost. So if we suppose that Locky and Tess are her two options, which way is best for her? I feel like this requires more thinking than I have in me tonight. Especially if we throw Sarah into the mix. My first instinct is that both Sarah and Tess will see her value as a goat and are more likely to use her to get to the end and potentially take her with them. Locky on the other hand is too tight with Ziggy, and much more likely to throw Michelle under the balls when it suits him, preferring to take T-Bone to the end. So Michelle should go with both Tess and Sarah until they target one another, and reassess then.

The Kid’s All Right (well, not really but I’m running out of The Who songs here)

***🎵…but my mum won’t admit it…🎵 (some The Who cuts are deeper than others)***

I’ve said in previous posts that Jerkicho won’t win. I stand by that. There’s still value in considering his options though. Sticking with Luke seems a no-brainer, I see no reason at this stage to suggest turning on that alliance. If I know Jerkicho (and I don’t) I think he’ll actually do just that pretty soon. I do suggest doing it before the end as he’ll never beat him at final tribal. Jerkicho’s only bet to win is to go against Tara or Michelle (or maybe even Peter) at final tribal. His only way to get there is to stay strong with Luke. Take out Ziggy ASAP. Then work towards getting Tess or Pete out, then move against Sarah before she tries to split you and Luke up. From there you need to get the lay of the land with where Locky is and where Tess or Pete is, and move whichever way is going to get yourself and Luke closer to a final four with Tara and Michelle. This is the plan for Luke too, however Luke isn’t quite as limited as to who he can beat in a final two and therefore doesn’t have quite as narrow a path to the end.

My Generation

This game seems to be changing so much from episode to episode. Last episode it looked that Locky and Ziggy were in a powerful position. At that point we didn’t know that old Asaga were so tight. We know better now and, it’s clear that Locky and Ziggy are now in a sticky situation. I suggest they have two options from here; attempt to align with Pete and Tess (and T-Bone) giving them the numbers to take out old Asaga, or try and convince old Asaga that Tess is a bigger threat than they are. Both of these options will only get them so far and the reality is that the rest of the tribe will want to split the two of them up. I think they should stick together if they continue to win immunity, after that the best bet is for each of them to try and remove the other the first chance they get. Neither will take the other to the final two, and either of them is a shot to win the final immunity challenge, so it’s too risky to take the other even to the final three.

Sub-sti-tute! My Cash For Food

I love Auction and this is one of the most fun, and most perplexing, I’ve witnessed. Firstly, the twist. Great! Provided a lot of fun watching Luke take all that food, and other advantage. Also has the effect of motivating future players to bid early rather than hold on to their cash waiting for idols/advantages/home and family contact. Speaking of home contact, I was surprised that we had this so soon after letters from home, but I wasn’t complaining. It had me bawling as usual. I watched the episode twice and was sobbing both times. I suspect that if I ever get to play the game, as much as I think I’d want to stay strong and hold out bidding until an advantage or idol clue or something comes up (depending on how comfortable I feel), I just know that the second a phone call is mentioned I couldn’t help myself. I would be all in. All chips on the table. What I do wonder is which is the better advantage; the challenge advantage, or the reward meal/night with guests? Both options have pros and cons. I really am bum-puzzled about which is the more beneficial. What would you pick and why? Let me know in the comments. I was surprised no one seemed to be looking for idols or clues on their night away. I thought for sure there’d be at least a clue there after two were played the night before. This time last year in the same reward there was no idol or clue so that seems to be a pattern for us here in Australia.

What Zenry did was part of the game. What Jerkicho did here was just spiteful and malicious.

I was perplexed by those who players who didn’t bid on food. I expected they were therefore waiting for advantage or home/family contact. Why did they not bid as high as they could out of the gate when those things came up? Maybe they were not that familiar with how the auction worked. I’m not sure how I feel about the drawing rocks solution to multiple max bids. Usually it’s first in with a max bid gets the spoils. That one person could lose all their money and not get anything, even when they knew what they were bidding on, seems unfair on the face of it. I’ll let my thinking on this gestate for a little before I make up my mind though. What are your thoughts? I can’t finish this post and this section on the auction without taking the opportunity to once again underline an instance of Jerkicho being a jerk. Making Tess work for her reward when he could never outbid her. We know who the real ‘Mothertrucker is tonight’. What Zenry did was playing the game. What Jerkicho did here was just spiteful and malicious. Just a jerk, jerk move. It made me feel better when he made like George W. Bush and stuffed up the ‘fool me once…’ adage…

And now, I can finally get some sleep. Three nights a week is a killer. Four next week if Aus Survivor is three nights again and you count US Survivor. As much as I’d love to there’s no way I can post about US Survivor as well as Australian. That would almost be a full-time job! And I’m afraid I’m not in a position where burley men in baseball caps give me envelopes of money with which to buy food. I have to actually work for my money.

One thing I will take time to write about though, hopefully before the end of the season, is an entire post on Henry’s game. I’d really love to take the time to break down all of the moves he made and see where the value is and what to avoid. Even though he didn’t get to the end, I’m not convinced that his flip to Samatau was a bad move. He threw so much at the game there’s a lot to chew on and I think it will be an interesting exercise. Tell me what you think and stay tuned. Until next week, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

*You may or may not have noticed that this post is full of links to songs by The Who (and one by The Rolling Stones). Did you find them all?! Unfortunately I couldn’t add links to the references in the title so here they are: ‘Won’t Get Fooled Again‘, ‘Bubbly O’Riley‘.

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 16 – ‘Payback is a Bub’ OR ‘Summer(Tau) Lovin, Happened So Fast’

Don’t start the merge in a jam, get all the up to date pre-merge analysis here.

***You know that’s not how war works right Jerkicho?***

This is why we love the merge. Going in to tribal I had no idea of the way this was going to go, just as coming in to this merge I did not know where the alliances stood. Now that we have our first post-merge tribal under our belt, we have a better idea what the moving parts are and which way they’re moving. Let’s see if we can actually articulate these below.

Underlining Strategy

***Irony is a dish best served delicious…***

I must say I was surprised to see Jarrad move so forcefully so soon after the merge. Though we’ve not seen a hell of a lot of Jarrad over the last 15 episodes, I had the impression that his gameplay would be more subtle than what we saw tonight. Generally the way to play going in to the merge is to lay low and watch what happens. So to see Jarrad of all people try to make a move was surprising and clearly didn’t go so well for him. I can understand and appreciate the thinking behind it, to strike before he sees it coming. He’d obviously been thinking it for some time and was waiting for his opportunity to go for it. And I agree that it would be a great dot point on the resume. Unfortunately this is classic over-confidence bias at work. He wants something to happen, and instead of looking at all the things that could go wrong, if he knew them he ignored them because the temptation was so great. It was this overconfidence that had him thinking that Locky would be with him. While Jarrad did show some awareness of the flaws in his game in his post exit blurb over credits, it’s a shame for him that he didn’t have this awareness of what was going on around him as it was happening.

Flippin’ Plankers

Jarrad wasn’t the only one I thought was falling prey to overconfidence bias. When Zenry started talking about it being time to start ‘making decisions’ I was worried that he might be the one getting overexcited. Again, I didn’t necessarily diasagree with his decision that Ziggy was dangerous and needed to go. My current assessment as to why he was successful in influencing Locky, while Jarrad and Tessa weren’t, was in their approaches. Tessa particularly showed great awareness of her opponents’ characters in her understanding that Locky needed his ego stroked and to be made to feel important in order to keep him under control. However, in actually discussing the way forward with Locky and getting his opinion, she was forthright with him about what they needed to do (To Target Luke. We were given the impression that there had already been a discussion with Locky re targeting Zenry, unfortunately we don’t know the details). Zenry on the other hand made Locky feel important. While he was urgent in his plea to Locky to come with him, he did it in a way that made Locky feel important and that they were doing this together. Tessa and other Samatauans wanted Locky along for the ride, Zenry made Locky think he was in the driving seat.

Of course it is worth noting that Zenry had spent most of his time at Samatau forming a bond with Locky, whereas the rest of Samatau had not done so at all. I can’t recall ever seeing Jarrad have a conversation with Locky, and during the early days it was pretty clear that Locky and Tessa were amicably not aligned with one another. Locky was not the only one who needs their ego stroked.

MicHellion

***I wonder which side he would have supported in the last world war?***

Damn that scene where Michelle confronted Tessa about not being kept in the loop was awkward. You could see Tessa trying to hold back the words that were coming out of her mouth and cringing at how they sounded. Effectively telling Michelle she was on the bottom of the alliance if she was in it at all. Was it the right move for Michelle to flip? I believe so. Both she and Locky knew that Tessa, Jarrad, Pete, and Ziggy were tight and unlikely to be persuaded to split and form sub-alliances with either of them. It looks like Locky could have an offsider in Michelle now. As much as I’m sick of seeing Locky take for granted his harem of fawning women, I hope for his sake he realises that Michelle has joined his stable. I’m more interested in seeing Michelle get as much out of this union as she can before ditching his arrogant arse.

Sucky Situation

***🎵Brother, brother, brother, there’s far too many of you dying…🎵***

So what can old Samatau do now that it seems the numbers are against them? Shit, I really don’t know. Individually, it might be best for each of them to start looking at other options. I feel Ziggy has the charm to be able to get back in Locky’s good books, I could be very wrong about that though. She needs to start finding her new wing-person that’s for sure. Who that will be I don’t know. If you’ve got a suggestion, share below.
I have zero idea where Anneliese stands. The good news for her is that she has options. Up until this vote I thought she was with Zenry and Locky. If they really are together I suspect Locky did not have time to talk to her as he really did decide at tribal or just before, and that Zenry did not want to risk a leak. She is actually in a great position, an idol in her hand, only one person that knows (I think just Zenry right), no enemies, and potential allies all around her. I couldn’t tell you her best move now, she doesn’t need to make a positive decision yet. She can just hang and see how things shake out.
Tessa too has her work cut out for her. Having never been to Asaga and forming relationships with them, Tara harbouring old grudges, never fostering a relationship with Zenry, and showing slightly less than contempt for Michelle. Things don’t look good. She and Peter need to come up with something quick. If I were Tess, my play would be less about hitching my wagon to a strong ally, and more about finding a target to undermine. Perhaps Tara again, or even Ziggy. Whatever the case, I can see Tess and Pete scrambling next episode. Oh how the tables have turned.

Swinger’s Party

The other thing I want to briefly discuss before I snuff the flame on the torch of this post, is the reward ‘twist’ and the dilemma it creates. My first question is have we ever seen somebody actually choose the selfish option? I don’t ever recall anybody ever taking the selfish option. So I have no idea how that works out historically (comment below if you have ever seen a season where somebody does take the selfish option). I’ve seen plenty of occasions where somebody takes the altruistic option and is voted out next. I think that if you’re already in players’ bad books, sharing reward won’t get you out of those books. I see the point about while you would have the advantages over your opponents of having eaten, feeling clean and refreshed, and the motivation that comes with having read letters from home, the guilt at having not shared the love with everyone you live with may completely disrupt one’s game and drain any energy gained from your reward. I’d love to know how much a decision like this would change the game. Incidentally I do wonder had she taken the selfish option, how many other players, if any she could have taken with her. Were I faced with this situation that knowledge would definitely influence my decision. Regardless, I suspect my humanity would get the better of me and I would take the altruistic option.
It goes without saying that this scene had me blubbering as it always does. One thing that did cross my mind as I was watching the challenge was how much more emotional and suspenseful it would be if those letters were knocked off the balance beam and directly into the fire. Harsh. Let’s leave this post with that thought. I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 15 – ‘One Night Stand’ OR ‘Gang of Four’

Don’t let there be any big surprises at this tribal (ffs how many times did J-LaP ask about that tonight?), check the previous episode’s analysis here!

I don’t understand what these people on Asaga are doing. Am I obtuse? Do I not understand this game at all? Perhaps there was a lot here that we didn’t see or was edited out. I’m not saying I disagree with the choice to take out Odette, I just don’t understand people’s justifications. Particularly with T-Bone still in the mix(ed grill).

Anyway let’s make like Luke in the jungle and search for some meaning in all of this.

Unhappy Family

***TFW there’s more letters in your tribe name than members of your tribe***

Before I get into individual gameplay I have to say how shocked I was at the amount of strategy disclosed during tribal tonight. Everybody sitting on the log tonight seemed more than happy to tell J-LaP, and thus the rest of the tribe, what their game plan was going forward. Not even in a fake-out way to trick Odette. I guess that tells us that this group of people are pretty much exhausted and done working with one another, or completely comfortable with one another (which I really can’t believe). I can’t see any other justification short of sheer stupidity, or at the very least, poor cognizance that this disclosure could actually work against them. It’s not very often that I make solid predictions, but contrary to Odette’s opinion I have to believe that none of these people can win this game.

Free(d) Agent

There’s not much to say about Odette that I haven’t said before. Floating can only work for so long. I know there’s people out there that thought that this floating, much like Kristie’s last season, could take her all the way. The difference between Odette and Kristie is that Kristie actually did make strategic decisions about where she would float to. Odette’s strategy on the other hand seemed to be to just vote with the majority every time. And given she didn’t know what the majority was, that it seemed to come down to her, she couldn’t make an actual decision. She even went as far as saying that she would toss a coin, and I don’t think she was just saying that. I get the impression that if there was a coin on island she would have done that. And when she told camp (I’m not sure who was there exactly, if you know leave a comment below) that she would do that I was shocked. That sort of behaviour has never worked in Survivor. It didn’t work for Sean back in the very first season of US Survivor almost twenty years ago, just like it didn’t work for Barry last year. We suspected all along that Odette really didn’t understand this game, last episode she showed that she had no idea what the phrase ‘swing vote’ really meant, that you have the power to swing the vote your way. Again she had that power tonight and completely squandered it. Anybody who knows anything about how to play this game would take the opportunity to analyse what they can do with that power, not just for tonight’s vote but for their future game, and maneuver accordingly. You know what, y’all know this stuff, I’m not going to go on talking about what she did wrong. It’s all very obvious to even the johnniest of come-latelies. She seems like a really lovely person who I’d love to get to know, but Survivor is not her bag, at least not this season. I’d love to see her come back and play again having (hopefully) learned more about how to play this great game. T-Bone on the other hand…

River Dunce

***🎵…flippie to the flippie, to the flip, flip, flop, and you don’t stop a rock it, to the bang, bang boogie…🎵***

I should preface this next section by acknowledging the possibility that my personal preference or otherwise toward Tara as a person could cloud my strategic view. I suspect that were I on island with Tara, she and I would not get along. I find her irksome and I cringe whenever I see her onscreen. So it’s possible that the following is more a reflection of my distaste for her than my disrespect of her game and where she stands in the game dynamic.
Why was T-Bone not the easy vote tonight? I would argue that she’s a greater threat than Odette post merge. She is just as unpredictable as Odette if not more-so. And she has ties to Samatau. Could they be looking at her as a goat? She is a very risky goat. Likely to flip (and flop) at a moment’s notice. Why her name did not come up tonight (or at least we didn’t see it) has me completely bum-puzzled. Having said that, she now is in a good position to get as far as her personality and gameplay allow her. Which way should she be going post-merge? Well she has to assess her options. We don’t know exactly what her old Samatau friends; Locky, Anneliese, and even Pirate Petey think about working with her. One would assume Locky would take whatever alliance is going at the moment. She needs to suss this out and let the big, noise-making players take the heat while she finds her path.

Model Prisoner in the Five-Senses Realm

***Sarah – “Perhaps you shouldn’t be such a jerk then jerk”***

I mentioned in my last analysis, and previously in the series, that Sarah needs a wingman, and that wingman should be Odette. While I do feel that riding this trio train (plus the T-Bone caboose) into merge station is safer than shuffling in as part of an Asaga divided, I stand by the decision that she needs a wingman. Perhaps she sees Pirate Petey as that wingman. Good luck if that’s the case. The foursome she is riding in with will only stay together for so long, and I’ve no doubt she knows that. Having Odette loyally by her side (if of course Odette could have ever been convinced to be loyal and join a strong twosome) would have helped her ride the storm once Jerkicho and Luke inevitably decided to sever ties. I do agree with her however that tonight was not the night to try and lose Luke. So notwithstanding that I think it was better to get rid of T-Bone than Odette, if she had tried to lose Luke, then the risk was too strong that this could backfire and put her back in the immediate firing line. Much better that she let him go to merge as her shield, as he now looks to Samatau that he was running the show in Asaga. She can keep that shield for as long as works for her while she finds another path to the end with the other players. I shouldn’t dismiss the strategic possibility of actually really joining Luke and Jerkicho as a solid threesome to the end. While I’d like to think that this option should remain open for strategic reasons, the reality is that there is too much animosity between them for that to occur.

Circle Jerk

***I thought “A-game to the A-frame” was the worst J-LaPism I’d ever heard until he followed it a minute later with “near the end of the limit!”….so you mean, like, the ‘limit’???***

Firstly, what is it with Jerkicho and his war metaphors? Fuggin christianity… Anyway, I do have to give credit to Jerkicho for a few things today. His performance in the challenge was nothing short of powerful. Well done. Also well done for the way he made Odette feel comfortable about the impending vote. For a while there, I wasn’t sure what he was doing, I thought he was putting a target on his own back by so openly strategising with Odette directly after his alliance had all seemingly agreed Odette was the target. I suspect there was a conversation there amongst the foursome that we did not see. That it was agreed that Jerkicho should go and talk to O to make her feel comfortable. Other than that I don’t think I saw anything from Jerkicho that interested me.

**“Clearing out the forest” – actual footage of Luke trimming his pubes again**

Same goes for Luke. Again, I agree that it was time to set enmity aside and take out Odette as an easy vote, rather than raise Sarah’s hackles and consequently raise the risk that he could go tonight, and hope they’ll merge shortly. I’m unsure whether it is better for him to keep T-Bone over Odette. Is it possible that he still thinks that he can sway Tara? I can see that he would be arrogant enough to think so. For him I suspect it was six of one and half a dozen of the other. He’s not interested in either long term. From here though, with a merge on the horizon, it might be time to turn on the charm offensive and try his luck as a number with either of he Samatau alliances. Either way it will be interesting to see just what happens for him during the merge, particularly what happens between he and Zenry, given Zenry is in a weak position within his Samatau homies.

That will do for tonight. Overall this was a somewhat boring episode, but when it comes to ‘reality tv’ they can’t all be staggeringly stupendous. Until merge Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 11 – ‘Want to Know What You’re Playing For?’ OR ‘Bog Save the Queen’

Does being confused about how we got here make you hangry? If so you can satisfy that hanger here.

***Luke the* green-grocer *delivers sharks?! My green-grocer doesn’t deliver sharks. You just sit and scan at ALDI don’t you Janice?***

Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated? I’m pretty rotten on tonight’s episode. If you’re familiar with Drop Your Buffs! then you likely already know my feelings around tricking the players. To me that’s not Survivor and to be honest, it’s not even fun for the general viewing public. I asked Grant Denyer, he surveyed 100 people about this and 99 said “this is shit…”. The one person left was AK and his response was “are you homosexual?”. There’s not really much strategy to talk about tonight, but let’s do what we gotta do and analyze this shit.

Words matter.

***Everyone wants to hear the words that matter most. Another shout out from the J-LaP himself. Cheers compadre.***

Is this chance at an idol a chance at a ‘reward’ as described by J-LaP, or is it a chance at an ‘advantage’? To anybody who has watched more than one season of Survivor then ‘rewards’ and ‘advantages’ are words that have very different meanings in Survivor. I know in the past I’ve scoffed at the fan uproar that resulted from the first tribe shuffle being called a ‘merge’. That’s a debate I have no time for, it really doesn’t matter what it’s called because we know what it is when we see it. But in this situation, the players don’t get to see it. They do however need to adjust their gameplay based on what it is. The ‘winner’ of this tribal council has a chance at an advantage. Knowing that it gives you a chance at an advantage changes completely the strategy and tactics that one might employ in this scenario. It was good to see J-LaP cop a grilling at tribal for a change. When Ben started speculating on what the “reward” might be I thought we were only a step away from someone asking J-LaP directly whether it was a reward or an advantage. Unfortunately they never got that far, or if they did, we didn’t see it.
To me, if you’ve got a chance at advantage, my first instinct is that you don’t want the advantage if it means that everyone knows you have an advantage, unless you’re in a particularly hairy spot (and I’m certainly not talking about Luke’s scrotum). Your best bet is to give it to someone that you are close enough to that you may have some power over how it is played, or at the very least know what and where it is.

Anarchy in the UK

***AK did his best to poke this bear, now who’s “totes homo”?***

I would even argue that you might consider throwing the challenge. It just adds another level of complexity, something more you need to keep track of. Male Rebel Wilson (AK) might argue that anything that adds panic and fear in the tribe is good. I would disagree if that something is an unknown something, especially an unknown something that has been called by the host himself ‘the ultimate reward’, that’s fire you don’t want to play with even if you are a hangry Locky. If you don’t think there’s a merge/shuffle coming soon then I would seriously consider letting the other tribe deal with that wasp’s nest. The last thing that I will say about this twist is that as far as a way to have an episode without someone going home, at least this beats what they did last week and have done in the past by blindsiding players with a tribe swapping tribal outcome.

Swamp Thing

***🎵🎵Can’t start a fire without a spark. Samatau’s now got fire. And Ziggy’s left to go schlomping in the dark.🎵🎵***

Regardless of my feelings about this twist we find ourselves in a situation where Ziggy is given a shot at the advantage. This was a good move for everyone (except perhaps Ziggy, who already seemed in a good position). Certainly it would have been better for Henry and Locky if either of them found it because they are in the tightest situation at Samatau. But I don’t think Ziggy having it is necessarily bad for them. The thinking to give it to someone trustworthy who is likely to share with the tribe makes perfect sense. And if it turns out that she is sketchy about it, well she becomes too much of a threat and you try and take her out, or at the very least make her play her advantage. What should she do with it from here? Good question Russell. Well, first of all I hope she kept the little statue that it was in as something that she may be able to bluff with in the future. In fact if I were her, and I were also a good liar, then I would tell the rest of the tribe that the statue is the reward, and that it was some sort of legacy advantage similar to Millenials/GenX for her to give to the person of her choice, and hope that the lie isn’t exposed before you need to use the actual super-idol. Of course if I were me, I wouldn’t be in this position because I would do my best not to be chosen to get it. Of course she could just tell the tribe exactly what it was but that she didn’t find it, or only tell a very select few that she did. A risky move, no matter how good a liar you are there would always be the suspicion that she has it. I honestly don’t know what I’d do in her situation. I’m completely bumpuzzled. I suspect that I’m going to be thinking about this a lot in the coming week. Please give me your thoughts in the comments.

Holidays In The Sun

***Actual footage of ‘healthier Russell Feathers’ watching this episode.***

I can’t not mention the letters from home. Unexpected though it was when we’re not even half way through the season. To be honest when I saw them my first reaction was ‘I don’t care for this yet, they didn’t even have to compete for it, what the hell is going on?’. Within three minutes I was bawling my eyes out. Dang it Survivor you really know how to hit a brother right in the feelberries.

Next week actually sees me take a mid season break from published analysis for two episodes, but I’ll be back the following Sunday. Until then, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 10 – ‘Kiss Off’ OR ‘Death of Superman’

Don’t get caught at the gun fight with nought but a knife. Arm yourself with the previous episode analysis here!

Goodbye to everybody’s favourite middle-aged white CFO, The Kentster. We had some fun with him but ultimately he didn’t do enough to keep himself in the game any longer. Just how did he fall from the dizzying heights from which he once soared? Let’s make like Jerkicho at an ice-cream parlour and stuff our face with the goodness.

Bearly There.

***“If you look around and don’t see the dickhead, you’re it”***

It might have been too much of a case of once bitten twice shy for Kent. Who, having unsuccessfully done a fair amount of wheeling and dealing last episode, mixed up his tactics and tried something new by ‘setting up shop’. In its self this is not necessarily a bad strategy, but it doesn’t usually work when your balls are on the chopping block. That tactic works best when you’re in a swing position, and people want to use you to swing things in their favour. Could one argue that had he not done this, and had instead taken a more active role in positioning himself and campaigning another option he would not have gone home? Probably not, but this tactic of his was symptomatic of the way he alienated himself post Jacqui’s departure (and what was the deal with sitting out of the reward challenge? Anybody know what happened there?). I said in the last episode analysis that it would behoove him to try and form a relationship T&A (T-Bone and Anneliese). I guess the other problem he had that, while it didn’t actively work against him, it did nothing to help, was his bond with Odette.

Dreadlocks on Holiday

If one were to say Kent did nothing to save himself, then Odette is somehow doing less than nothing. Seemingly now left with no Kent to stand on, what can she possibly do to continue in this game? Well here is a situation where it could be argued that she is in the middle, if she can see it. It very much looks like there is now a tribe split at Asaga, with Luke, Jerkicho, and Michelle a trust cluster and, Tara, Anneliese, and Sarah a trust cluster. Students of Survivor will note that here with seven left in the tribe, people are going to want to start making moves. I feel she really can sit back and let people come to her. I’m not sure at this stage which side she should then pick. There are pros and cons both ways. My gut feeling is take out Tara/Anneliese or Sarah as they would most likely ditch her once they could, whereas Luke, Jerkicho and Michelle will want to use her to get rid of Henry. This of course would involve her letting them know that she never had ties with Henry, or that any ties she did have are dead. Either way, she needs to take some time to hear the pitches of her tribemates, and sooner rather than later so she has some time to make the best move for her. Speaking of Tara.

Simple Simple Simple

While I have to give it to T-Bone for actually being pro-active this episode, and considering options by approaching others. Unfortunatley for her all that energy was completely undermined by the way she actually did it. The amount of times she said “I think” rather than asking people what they want to do, underscores her complete lack of understanding of the social aspects of the game. Luke and Michelle said it best when they said something to the effect of “you’ve been here two minutes and you think you can start telling us what to do?!?!” and “just do what we tell you to do and we’ll know we can trust you” respectively. All she did by telling everyone what her plans were was put a big sign on her head that said STRATEGIST. Zenry may be the one playing board games on island but at this stage you’d have to say T-Bone’s quest to make it to the end of this game truly is a Trivial Pursuit. Anneliese on the other hand…

T-Bone’s Wing-(Wo)Man

***When J-LaP asks if anyone has an idol…***

Anneliese played much more subtly. I’m not sure where I stand on her thinking getting Sarah involved to get the idol. Certainly from a viewer POV it’s the right move, so hopefully for her she has the tribe awareness to see what’s going on at Asaga. Sarah is the one looking for a wingman, she’s most certainly the right person to approach. So whether that move was accident or design, well done A. Incidentally, since when does a tribe have two idols? In my thinking Zenry has the Asaga idol. I guess when you’re production you just fiddle with the format to suit yourself. Have we seen it happen like this before (let me know in the comments). Also, what the hell was with J-LaP telling us the trolley’s had square wheels? Does he know what a square looks like? Is anything that’s not a circle a square to him? This reminded me very much of him telling us in episode 4 last season that Vavau were “half-swimming/half-running, just like dolphins”. J-LaP, you crack me up!
Anyway back to Anneliese, where to from here? DON’T TELL TARA YOU HAVE THE IDOL! Let her keep running her mouth so that if and when your alliance is targeted, she’s voted out before you. That’s step number one. Second, now that you’ve got Sarah, ask her what she wants to do, and do it. Let her be the meat-shield in your alliance. That trio is a pretty good fit for you right now. You can make it look like you’re the follower in that alliance, but you have the idol, and with it, the power. Just keep Sarah close so she doesn’t try and use that idol against you. Can’t see that happening at this stage.

Sarah the Substitute

I wonder whether Sarah would have kept the idol for herself had she been the one to retrieve it? I’d love to know. Anyway, Sarah potentially is sitting rather pretty here. While it looked like she considered her options with Kent, and I loved the way she pumped him for info (in stark contrast to T-Bone’s approach of telling Kent what should happen), but I do think voting out Kent was the best move tonight. The numbers weren’t quite yet right to make a move against Luke, Jerkicho and Michelle yet, and if Asaga don’t go to tribal again before merge/shuffle, she may need them. Much better doing what she did and keeping them feeling like she’s with them and they’re running things. She needs to let Luke and Jerkicho do their thing and not make it look like her and Anneliese are aligned. As long as she keeps her ear to the ground to make sure they’re not looking at targeting her. If she feels they are, she can work with Anneliese to use the idol to flip the vote back on them. And as I said above, make a move to scoop up Odette, and she may not need to take advantage of that idol yet. Odette’s the number you need right now to really make like Luke and be ‘Mr. Comfortable’.

Luke Train Leaving the Station

If Luke is the engine of the Asaga train, it’s about time he looked behind him to see just how many carriages he actually has in tow because us viewers have the feeling he might shortly lose some and Asaga will derail. Analogy aside, he really does need to check his bonds in that tribe. He has been too cocky for too long and we all know that pride cometh before the fall. About time he took his head out of his ‘safe as houses’ bubble, because you don’t need Ross Greenwood or Paul Clitheroe to tell you the housing bubble is primed to burst (high fives all ‘round for name-dropping those two, fuck I’m awesome). As for Jerkicho and Michelle, I don’t know that they’ve got much life in the game beyond the merge other than as goats. Their best move for now is to stick with Luke and hope that he can steer the train through the rough times ahead (ok this metaphor may have derailed now), keep him as a meat-shield, I don’t expect he’ll flip on them anytime soon. And above all, try and scoop up Odette before Sarah does.

Smooth Criminal

***Nick showing Zenry how find cracks at a new tribe…***

I don’t want to say too much about Samatau today, mostly because there’s not much to say. I liked Zenry’s attempt at using his charisma to establish bonds in his tribe. It’s good to see that he was aware things aren’t really going as planned there, he couldn’t find the crack he assumed would be there, and so acted. Unfortunate that it seemed to backfire, there really is something to be said for keeping as low a profile as possible when joining a new tribe, sticking your neck out is just too risky. As for giving Jerkicho what I assume is his old immunity clue? Initially I thought this a genius move. To have kept it for the purpose of giving someone something tangible with which to show that you’re still with them, and then to pick the cookie distributor was clever. Though it didn’t seem that the clue was particularly specific, I do wonder though if this will result in Jerkicho looking for the clue, not finding it and assuming that Zenry has it, hence targeting Zenry if they make it to merge. Only time will tell.

***Actual footage of AK encouraging Zenry to keep trying to ‘fit in’***

And I couldn’t make it through a post without mentioning fan favourite, Male Rebel Wilson (AKA, MRW. AKA, AK). Not only was he sharp enough to be wise to Zenry’s strategy, but also the way he pumped Ben for information about the exact dynamics of Asaga, was delicious. Sweet, naïve, people-pleasing Ben was all too happy to spill the beans. Until the next super episode, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 9 – ‘Asaga? Strong?’ OR ‘Asaga Blood not Thicker Than Water but Still Bloody Thick’

Don’t wait for mum to bring you dinner in your bedroom, make sure you know how we got here by reading the previous analysis.

Two big things to talk about this analysis. Henry’s swap. And Jacqui’s departure. And it’s fair to say you can’t talk about one without talking about the other. So let’s make like Luke and get comfortable.

Playing Like the Devil Right Now

Hmmm. Where to start. At the beginning I guess, pre-swap. Sometimes we can forget that the strategy and gameplay doesn’t just happen once you’ve lost the immunity challenge. When we came across Asaga this episode they were eating their breakfast I guess, and clearly the lines were drawn. Zenry and Jacqui, Kent and Odette, sitting by the fire eating. Luke and Jerkicho, sitting under the cover with the useless bucket (Ben and Michelle). This spelt trouble for Zenry and Jacqui. Again, they’re clearly not reading my analysis. I guess they don’t have wi-fi on island. I’ve been saying since episode two that they need to be more subtle about the time that they spend together. This scene crystallised the brewing rift. For me the worst thing about this was that surely Zenry and Jacqui knew that this rift was brewing. The way it looked to me (admittedly this could be the editing) was that Ben openly asked Jacqui to bring him his breakfast, and did this in a way that would make anyone hearing it think that he was fucking with her. If that’s the case, and Jacqui (and Henry) ignored this, well then Jacqui’s departure is on their heads.

Hit the Road Jacqui.

***She learned this particular yoga move from Henry***

I’d not go as far as saying that Jacqui was riding Zenry’s coat tails, but once he was out of the picture she was always going to have a hard time. They say pride cometh before a fall, and we’ve not seen hubris as blatant as Zenry and Jacqui have displayed over the last two or three episodes before. I’m not sure how many times we’ve heard the two of them mention their power, and it certainly wasn’t always tongue in cheek. Of course this is nothing compared to the overconfidence that Zenry showed when he voluntarily switched tribes. I’ll talk more on that shortly, but for now I’ll just say that this move was another display of the overconfidence that led to Jacqui’s departure. For neither Jacqui nor Zenry to see that they did not have quite the control they imagined, is blinkered gameplay. As much as Jacqui (and Zenry) need to take responsibility for this outcome, the role that Luke played needs to be acknowledged.

Full Pockets, Empty Heads

***If anybody knows just what instrument Luke is miming playing, please let me know in the comments…***

In contrast to Jacqui (and Henry) underselling what was going on in Asaga to their new tribemates, Luke was quick to throw T a bone, informing her that J was carrying on like a pork chop. Seizing the opportunity to establish a bond with T&A. This was a good example of how you gain more trust with candour than with evasiveness. Luke had nothing to lose by spilling the real Asaga dynamics, and though it could be argued that Jacqui may have, I would argue that by saying nothing she damaged the possibility of gaining trust with two new tribemates. Back to Luke, now that Jacqui is gone, where to next. Personally I think the best move is to knock off Anneliese (or Tara if necessary). Disable any power that these two have and break them up now before they get a foothold.

“I’m going to do everything I can” – proceeds to do nothing

The other thing that he did tonight that impressed me was the way he had his core alliance do the work for him. Yes he let T-Bone know what was going down in camp, but then he just spoke with Michelle and Jerkicho, and had them work on T&A (and Sarah, more on her below). From what we saw, it would not have seemed to Jacqui and Kent that Luke was masterminding a coup. What did “scream ‘ALARM BELLS'”, to quote AK, was Sarah’s shiftiness.

Model in the (almost) Middle

***“I could go one fucking way, or I could go the other fucking way…”***

As I was watching Jerkicho try and sway Sarah I thought this was risky, Luke and his crew ultimately did not need Sarah to oust J if they had T&A on side, and at this stage I didn’t know where Sarah stood and so I was concerned that this might tip their hand to Jacqui and Kent. That Sarah may play double agent and go back and form a counter-play with Kent and Jacqui. Was this the right move for Sarah? Certainly it was risky. Made more risky by her dismissal of Kent when he realised he needed to act (and good on him). Ultimately if she knew that the numbers had already flipped, and seemingly without a strong connection either way, this makes sense. Sticking with Kent and Odette would be of no advantage to her. What this transaction did highlight is that she lacks a plus one. I don’t really know what her options are here. I get the feeling she has left her run too late. Jerkicho has Luke. T-Bone has A-Frame. Michelle? I guess Michelle is her option. Other than finding someone to closely align with, I’m really not sure what her best play is from here out. I don’t see her path to the end. Give me your thoughts in the comments below.

Dreadlocks on Holiday

***Kent Knopfler or Bruce Srpingkent? Looks like he’s about to whip out the Strat or the Tele and shred out a blistering guitar solo.***

Odette and Kent now on the outs. Though we’ve not heard much from Odette I’m not inclined to think yet that she hasn’t been playing. My suspicion is that she has strategically hitched her wagon to Kent, Jacqui and Henry, but wasn’t sharp enough to realise that the tide was turning. Now she’s stuck with Kent, and things are looking grim for the both of them. Surely though other people, like Michelle and Sarah can see that Jerkicho is, well, a smug sneaky jerk who can’t be trusted. So perhaps their best move is to recruit S&M, and hopefully T&A, to move against Jerkface McJerkington. Do it quickly though before T&A fall under the comfortable charms of Luke.

Swap and Meet

***AK finally gets rid of T-Bone, now he starts talking about ‘mignons’?!?!***

Can’t go without talking about what I see as really the biggest move this episode. Zenry’s move to open a new interstate franchise. Once I got over my initial shock at this apparent death wish, I started to wonder if this actually could work. I don’t know if we’ve ever seen this move before. I understand his logic. He feels comfortable (of course we know that this comfort is baseless) that things are under control at Asaga, and he wants to increase his sphere of influence. But damn it’s risky. It’s the opposite of what we expect from good smart players. We expect them not to take such big risks if they’re on to a good thing. At least not until the merge. I don’t expect that he would have done this without his hidden immunity idol, I’d love to have this confirmed once he leaves the game. If he makes it to the final tribal council it’s a hell of a move to have on your resume. I really see this as a test case for this move. If this works out, it could truly be considered a gamechanger.

Hopefully next episode we’ll get the chance to see how the swap has changed things at Samatau. I’m also really interested to know whether we will actually see the tribes be shuffled in to three tribes, if they were going to do that I’d imagine they wouldn’t do it with less than 15 players remaining. I wonder if that also figured into Zenry’s decision to scope out the other camp. It was also nice to hear J-LaP give me a shout out and speak those magic words, “drop your buffs”. On that note, I’ve got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 8 – ‘Twist and Shout’ OR ‘Getting Ziggy With It’

Ever feel like you’ve dacked an idol clue only to discover it was a manicure set? Don’t get your short and curlies caught in the razor, read how we got here, here.

***Stuck in the middle. With you (at least until next tribal)***

Much like Luke’s pubes, tonight’s analysis is going to be short and, er, sweet.
All hail Queen Ziggy! Tonight Ziggy gave us a masterclass in Survivor. I must admit I was worried for a while there that this would turn out differently. But cooler heads prevailed. How did she do it? Let’s not beat around the shaved ballsack, let’s sink our teeth into it (the episode that is, not the scrotum).

Zig or Zag

***“(AK) will only lay down his life to save his own life” – Quote of the episode***

Our first look at Samatau tonight once again presented us with a downtrodden Locky and T-Bone trying to piece together some way of forming a majority alliance. Clearly they don’t read my analysis because I’ve been saying for weeks that the only hope for them as individuals is to abandon each other. Of course, they’re too proud to flip to the majority alliance, that would mean admitting defeat. So they (let’s be honest here Locky was the only one doing anything) hatch a plan to influence Ziggy to flip. I was a little confused when they did this since that would leave the numbers at a 4-4 split, How stupid was I not to think that splitting the votes could be on the cards. It seems I wasn’t the only stupid one as neither T-Bone nor Locky made any play to influence the majority alliance to do that let alone think that it could happen (at least not that we were shown). Ziggy to her credit, at least entertains the possibility. We know now of course that she was lying to Anneliese, T-Bone and Locky, but I do believe that she did not dismiss their proposal initially. That she took the time to consider this option. I suspect it didn’t take much consideration before she made the decision that this was not her best move. And from there, well, the way she had the others, particularly Anneliese, thinking that she was with them was nothing less than inspired.

“MARCO?”…”ANNELIESE!” (you thought I was going to say polo, that’s why this particular joke works on multiple levels (oh yeah I am that clever))

***“So glad we’re together AnneLIES. Whoops, didn’t mean to drop the ‘e’. I’m sorry AnneLIES. Ooh I keep saying ‘lies'”***

In a game of ‘big moves’, sometimes it’s the little things that make a good Survivor player. Like limiting your interactions with T-Bone on the pretext that it would make her real alliance suspicious. Like sitting directly between Locky and AK at tribal council (I choose to believe this was a deliberate and strategic move). And most impressive at all, announcing to the rest of her alliance that she was voting Anneliese in the surprise vote, so that they may follow her lead. Incidentally, do you think that they actually had a chance to talk before having to make that surprise vote? I’d be shocked if someone didn’t at least ask if they could. I know I’d certainly ask the question.

***Let’s hope there’s more than one razor***

Back to our Stardust woman. Why was this the best move for Ziggy?
At present she has a good thing going with her fivesome. While it would be naïve not to acknowledge that somebody must be on the bottom, or at the very least that some people are in stronger position than others, there’s nothing that has me thinking that Zig is particularly weak within that fivesome. There’s no doubt in my mind that had she jumped ship, she would most definitely be on the bottom of her new foursome. Admittedly AK is a threat strategically, but he’s also a bloody good meat-shield (is there a better term for that than meat-shield, particularly when the threat is not so much physical but strategic? Threat-magnet? If you’ve got a good one let me know in the comments). I can’t see anyone (other than AK) gunning for Ziggy if AK’s still around posing a threat. Not to mention that Ziggy would put a big target on her balls making such a big move at this point. Locky told her to sit pretty, and that’s exactly what she’s doing.

T… Boned

***“Maybe they’ll have ice-cream on Exile Island…”***

Just when we thought this particular cut of meat was going to get the chop, she’s thrown a lifeline. Dammit. Tara did absolutely nothing to save herself this episode, or the episodes previous. If she were on Asaga I’ve no doubt that she would have been counted in Zenry’s useless basket. If I cared for T-Bone I might give her some advice here. The reality is of course that she’s unlikely to listen to it, and she is never going to win anyway. She’s not playing the game, she doesn’t understand the game, and frankly she comes across as a sook. I don’t care for her. If I did, my advice would be you’ve been given a second shot here, make like AK and show some humility, maybe you’ll actually bond with someone, and then do your best to stay out of the crosshairs (and Lukehairs).

Bridge Over Muddied Waters

Usually I’d spend the rest of the analysis breaking down what I think each of the remaining players from tonight’s tribal council should do next. However, with a shake up looming I don’t see much point in tailoring advice to individuals, so I’ll just say, play it cool to everyone. The last thing you want to do is shake things up now. Let someone else stick their neck in the guillotine. If the shuffle opens options for you, absolutely do what you can to assess those options, but don’t act yet. Solidify your current bonds (if they remain), allow new relationships to develop (I believe this was Andy’s downfall last season. Prior to the shuffle you could see him socialising with everyone in his tribe, post-shuffle he did not talk to some new tribemates at all), and keep a low profile. For some of course, this will be easier than others. I’m looking at you Luke and Jerkicho.

Every day I’m Shuffling

Wow, I’ve made it this far and haven’t even criticised the twist. My thoughts on what I see as production ‘tricking’ players are by now well established. If somehow you don’t know where I stand check here. When J-LaP introduced the immunity challenge I noted that he did not say “I’ll see you at tribal council where someone will be going home”, instead he said “voted out”. I don’t know if this is the first time he’s said that this season. If there’s anyone out there who knows or is willing to make the effort to go back through the season and check, I’d be interested to hear from you in the comments. When he said that tonight I wondered if anyone would ever front him on that and directly ask him if people were being sent home at tribal. I don’t expect he’d give a direct answer, but you’d know something was up. Ultimately I don’t think this knowledge would have changed the strategy in terms of voting against T-Bone. But knowing that you were voting twice certainly would have made things more interesting.

***J – “I want to take myself to bed” M – “I can feel myself again” – Runner up quotes of the episode.***

I know it’s been a mostly Asaga-less analysis here, but there wasn’t much happening over there worth analysing to be honest, particularly with a shuffle on our hands. So until next episode, I got nothing for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 7 – ‘Straight Shooting’ or ‘Feeling the Sting’

If you’re confused about the commotion in the ocean, still those waters by reading how we got here in the previous analysis.

***How many times can I type ‘totes homo’ this season?***

At least Channel Ten weren’t overhyping it this time when they told us we would have a showdown. Personally I’m happy that Mark left. He wasn’t my cup of tea. Ultimately the better man (and woman) won.There’s not much aside from this battle worth talking about, but let’s get muddy and break down why Zenry and Jacqui prevailed.

Revenge is a Dish Worst Served by a Cold Fish

***There’s one or two ladies and men out there that will take more than an inch if you’re offering Mark***

Mark said it himself. He’s a quiet guy. Unfortunately in this game that can come off as analytical, arrogant and aloof. It became crystal clear during tribal just how different this was to the way Zenry came across. I’m glad that ComMarkDo got direct. Not only was it entertaining but, suspecting that the tribe could go either way he really had nothing to lose. All he did though was throw shade at Jacqui and Henry, trying to undermine them and at the same time talk himself up. Zenry on the other hand, took a different approach. None of the words out of Zenry’s mouth were attacks on Mark, but instead were positive and reassuring to his alliance. He spoke of trust and relationships, not secrets and lies. I know that since episode two I’ve been unfavourable in my comments on the way he and Jacqui have carried themselves around camp. This was echoed tonight when Luke said “it’s no secret that (they) are an alliance”. But I definitely got a good vibes from them during the tribal tonight. Their argument against, particulalry Zenry’s, came across as sincere and non-threatening. He was honest about having a ‘mother/son’ relationship with Jacqui, and spoke of having equitable relationships with other tribemates. Ultimately if you’re in that tribal and are still having second thoughts about who to vote against, based on tribal performance alone you’re going to be more comfortable keeping Zenry than ComMarkDo. Asaga have been dealing with these two personalities for nearly twenty days, and if their behaviour in those twenty days was anything like it was during this tribal, it’s clear that Zenry is playing a better game socially. This was something that a few loose words from Luke was not going to change.

Loose Ends

***The Brown Hornet (Luke) and his bumbling offsider (#stretchyreference)***

Oh shit Jericho and Luke! You boys are on the out now. Incidentally nice work from Jericho (savour this Jericho, it’s unlikely you’ll get positive words from me again) in holding the anti-vengeance line during tribal and not tipping his hand. But what happened here tonight speaks to how little awareness these two have of their tribal dynamics. Lucifer Luke we know does shit just to stir shit up, which is never a good play. I don’t see any strategy in what he does other than to create chaos. He’s like a firebug. Gaining a sense of power by performing senseless acts that get reactions.

gif1 — *Actual footage of Luke joining Mark’s alliance*

He’s funny, but I don’t care for his gameplay. And it seems neither do the rest of Asaga, other than Jerkicho. Ugh, I can’t even. And the preview for next episode looks like Jerkicho is going full Brandon Hantz because he doesn’t get his way. I have zero time for this. It’s neither stimulating nor intriguing. I’ll be glad when I don’t have to look at him again. What can they do though to move past this? Well, don’t do what it looks like Jerkicho is doing and sabotaging camp. I’d like to think that the best both of them can do is get back to Zenry and Jacqui, apologise, lay low and hope that Michelle and Ben don’t ingratiate themselves any further. However I do believe there is a chance they could flip things their way though. We still don’t know where Odette, Ben, and Michelle really stand. And I get the feeling Sarah is keeping her options open. These people didn’t flip when it came to the Mark vote, but could they flip on Zenry and Jacqui?

Under the Water, Under the Radar

The more I think about this the more I see that the best move for these real misfits is to flip on Jacqui and Zenry shortly. Of course they don’t know there’s an idol involved. I was excited to hear about that this episode, I’d completely forgotten. Idol notwithstanding, it makes sense to start the whispers about breaking them up. Mark’s parting words have laid the foundation, so if you’re Asaga you can bring it up in that context without it coming across as your own great strategic idea. If you’re the BOMS (Ben, Odette, Michelle, Sarah) which duo do you target first? Zenry and Jacqui, or, Jerkicho and Lucifer Luke (they give JL a bad name)? Zenry and Jacqui are more strategic, but Jerkicho and Luke are unpredictable. Hmmm, I don’t have an answer for this, I’m going to think on it some more. Regardless I would argue that the BOMS are now in a power position if they can get their shit together and get on the same page. Can’t end talking Asaga without acknowledging Sarah’s play this episode. The way she talked with Luke and made him feel comfortable was sublime.

Flaky Relations

5B4747B8-0CAE-4BD3-829C-33A547BF2C5D — ***Sharks don’t generally make it past episode 10 anyhow…***

Again not much from Samatau tonight. Nothing seems to have changed for them. Locky and T-Bone are still trying to work together to create a coup. As discussed two posts ago I consider their best move is to target each other. I guess they’ve at least got to make it look to one another that they still want to play together. Good luck working on Ziggy. I’m glad we got to see more from her tonight and know that she too is considering her options rather than floating along with the majority alliance. I don’t imagine that she’s going to split from the main alliance yet. Certainly not at eight. Come seven though, if it gets that far before a merge/shuffle, I can definitely see her shifting if she can get someone else to shift with her. I don’t know enough about Jarrad and Peter yet to know if they would. I can actually see Tess and Ziggy making a move together at seven if Samatau gets that far.

***I’m claiming this as a personal shout-out from Australian Survivor***

That’s all I got time for tonight. Damn Monday nights with your Survivor and your Thrones and your Q&A. It’s too much for a man to handle. At least they dispensed with reward challenge tonight. I hope that becomes a regular Monday episode thing. Though maybe next time they wont make up for that with 30 mins at tribal council. Until next week, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes and non-Survivor gifs created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and Survivor gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these particularly gifted people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 6 – ‘Running The Show’ OR ‘Smarter Than The Average Yogi’

If you’re wondering why there’s a lamington on the BBQ you’re not alone, and the previous episode’s analysis won’t help you understand that, but it will help you understand what’s going on with our players.

Which Sam is the better detective?

Finally we see some Asaga. I was getting sick of seeing cookies whenever we checked in with them. But now there’s some action on our hands. Well at least as much action as you’re going to get when the votes are split 9-2. Anyway, let’s make like Tara’s mental fortitude and break (it) down.

Throwing Challengers

***Zenry’s had plenty of practice throwing things…***

OK, in the past I’ve spoken at length about where I stand regarding throwing challenges, so I won’t dwell on it too much. Generally speaking, I think throwing challenges is a stupid move. It rarely works well. It’s especially unnecessary when there’s likely a merge/shuffle around the corner. What exactly were Zenry’s motivations for doing so? Was it because he felt Sam was on to him? We know from a few episodes ago that Sam certainly didn’t trust his alliance with Jacqui. Which is on his own head for making his alliance too obvious.

*“You heard me wrong guys. I never said ‘*Yoga Teacher’*, I said ‘*Yoghurt Eater'”

So if he was worried about Sam outing him as a more strategic player than he’s purporting to be, is the answer to that to strategically mastermind her shafting? Sounds counterintuitive to me. To be fair though, we didn’t actually see him pulling the strings. How exactly did word get around, does he have his own troops to do that bidding? (Incidentally where is Jericho’s cookie army?) If he did manage to make this happen without putting this target on his back, then he’s a better player than I give him credit for. Also, why is it that we say people put a target on their back, when it’s their head that ends up on the chopping block? Methinks it’s about time we started using some less stale Survivor cliches.
Back to the gameplay. Not only did he throw the challenge but he did so by putting himself in the clutch position at the challenge. Now that’s really playing knifey/spoony with your balls (maybe that will catch on #testicularknifeyspoony).
However with such a landslide victory it’s possible that Zenry was pretty certain that he had the numbers, making throwing the challenge less of a risk for him. Still, I’m not convinced the reward justifies the risk. If it was so easy for Zenry to turn the tribe against Sam, I don’t suspect that Sam would have done been able to turn the tribe against Zenry had their tribal council appearance come three or six days later. So again, not worth the risk. Asaga is also left with a pissed bulldog in ComMarkdo (eh, not sure I’m feeling it).

The resemblance is uncanny

But was it the best move to vote Sam off if they had gone to tribal without the challenge being thrown?

From the POV of Sarah, Kent, Odette, Ben, Luke and Michelle, I’m going to say yes. They get to be rid of a big strategic threat, and are left with any possible revenge dart being thrown squarely at Zenry and Jacqui or maybe Jericho. This is of course based on a BIG assumption that it was these three that did the leg work to send the vote Sam’s way. If Zenry was able to make that vote happen without it making him look like he was pulling the strings, then it was a good choice well-played (challenge throwing notwithstanding). It seems though, based on the preview for tomorrow, that ComMarkDo wants revenge on Zenry, so perhaps he was not so furtive at all.

Mark My Word

***Mark’s not picking up what Kent is lying down (see what I did there?)***

Where does Mark go to from here? One thing that seemed clear throughout this episode and in previous episodes was that the reason why the tribe wanted Sam to go had little to do with Mark himself. As the tribe may have seen the Smark alliance as a threat, they now see that power structure dismantled. I don’t get the sense that Mark is now on the outs with the tribe, at least not yet, so I don’t feel like he’s in a fight for his life. He has his physicality going for him. He’s a boon in challenges. I do think he may have come off a little too sharp in his interrogations pre-tribal. He’ll want to downplay that going forward. There’s lots of other people, eg Michelle and Ben, that are likelier candidates to be sent home next tribal should there be one for this Asaga. All Mark needs to do is downplay his strategy, play up his assets (not a euphemism), and let one of those guys take the fall. Unfortunately for ComMarkDo, much as it was for his namesake Arnold Schwarzenegger, it appears that emotions and a quest for revenge will now fuel his motivations. That is not the way to play smart Survivor. That’s not to say it won’t work. It may. Personally I don’t see any motivation for the rest of the tribe right now to flip on Zenry and side with ComMarkDo. Is there a way Zenry can deflect this attention? Guess we’ll see Monday night.

Asaga Saga

***Once Samatau took the GAS out of ASAGA’s barbecue, all they were left with was AA… (I’ll get me coat)***

There was some nice gameplay from a few others tonight too. I liked that Kent knew that Mark knew that he was lying. I think anyone would know he was lying, the amount of “honestly”s and “actually”s that were dribbling out of his mouth.
Similarly for Sarah. Though she was somewhat more believable, there was some long eye contact there when she was copping a Mark drilling (not a euphemism), and she suspects too that Mark knew she was lying. I do think that she seemed more genuine with Mark, and her relationship is still good enough that she can reassure him in the future if need be. I do suggest however that both Kent and Sarah approach ComMarkDo once they’re back at camp to stay in his good books and keep their options open. I don’t feel that doing so could weaken jeopardize their position in the tribe given that both Ben and Michelle are still around. Who knows what Ben and Michelle’s best play from here is. They must both be feeling the pressure, I just don’t quite understand how they have ended up on the bottom. If I knew a little bit more about their position in the tribe I might have advice for them. But as it is the only advice that I have is that they seem to be loose numbers (#loosenumbers), so they should leverage that in the apparently upcoming Faux-gi vs Special Ops (Zenry vs ComMarkDo) War.

Snags and T-Bones

I won’t spend much time with Samatau tonight, as there wasn’t much happening there. T-Bone (Tara) clicked it as we knew she would. Locky, Tara, and Anneliese talked among each other when they should have been finding a way in to the rest of the tribe. They whinged about being “pissed at Pete” (I thought they were saying ‘Pistol Pete’ at first), but didn’t do anything about it. I know I made light of T-Bone’s crying session before. I get it, I can imagine myself doing the same thing in that position. I hope she can lift herself from her funk and fight and give us something more meaty to talk about. I still want her gone, but I do feel sorry for her. Of these three, Anneliese is the only one I really want to see go further. I’d like to know more about what she has to offer. Strategically I have no advice for them different to what I gave them last post.

I must make mention of the BBQ reward. While watching them partake in the reward I had no sooner written the note ‘BBClue’ than AK tells the tribe they should be looking for the clue. Facepalm. Even if you don’t want to be the person to find it, the last thing you want to do is remind everyone of how strategic you are by being the one to mention a clue. Either look for it yourself (surreptitiously), get one trusted ally to look for it, or don’t look for it at all. You just painted a big target on your back. Oh shit, forgot we weren’t using that anymore. I mean, you just stuck a big ‘kick me’ sign on your arse (give me a better suggestion in the comments).

What was Locky’s play when he outed Zenry as being the driving physical force for Asaga at the challenges? My guess is that he was subtly reminding his own tribe that they need his strength if they’re going to win further challenges. Perhaps he also sees him as a threat in the future. I already suspect that it’s hard for Locky not to be the alpha dog, so maybe he’s highlighting the tall poppies to the other tribe in the hope that he’ll be booted before a merge/shuffle. I’d love to hear other’s thoughts on this.

Look at that. I made it through a whole post without making a power bottom joke. Hopefully I’ll get to use it next time. Until then, I’ve got nothing for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of those special people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Survivor analysis by Russell Feathers, an Australian who thinks he has the numbers, but probably is about to have his torch snuffed (not a euphemism).

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

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Underlining Strategy

Flippin’ Plankers

MicHellion

Sucky Situation

Swinger’s Party

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Unhappy Family

Free(d) Agent

River Dunce

Model Prisoner in the Five-Senses Realm

Circle Jerk

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Words matter.

Anarchy in the UK

Swamp Thing

Holidays In The Sun

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Bearly There.

Dreadlocks on Holiday

Simple Simple Simple

T-Bone’s Wing-(Wo)Man

Sarah the Substitute

Luke Train Leaving the Station

Smooth Criminal

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Playing Like the Devil Right Now

Hit the Road Jacqui.

Full Pockets, Empty Heads

Model in the (almost) Middle

Dreadlocks on Holiday

Swap and Meet

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Zig or Zag

“MARCO?”…”ANNELIESE!” (you thought I was going to say polo, that’s why this particular joke works on multiple levels (oh yeah I am that clever))

T… Boned

Bridge Over Muddied Waters

Every day I’m Shuffling

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Revenge is a Dish Worst Served by a Cold Fish

Loose Ends

Under the Water, Under the Radar

Flaky Relations

(Most memes and non-Survivor gifs created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and Survivor gifs Channel Ten)

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Throwing Challengers

Mark My Word

Asaga Saga

Snags and T-Bones

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