If you’re yet to read my analysis of the previous episode, you can do so here.
Seriously?! This is how we are going to move into the top eight? We’re forty odd days into the game, our final nine, and people are still saying “I definitely feel like this person is someone I can work with”!? And again no one looking for a clue at the reward challenge?! This is a very different season of Survivor to the ones I am used to. As a fan, I have found the last two episodes particularly disappointing. If you’ve been reading along at home then you’ll know how much I was looking forward to these last two episodes assuming that we would start seeing some big moves. Instead we saw safe, boring and dare I say stupid gameplay result in the episode ending with a floater left in the bowl that is our top eight.
“Yeah, but”
Little known fact: Rodin’s original concept for his sculpture ‘The Thinker’ was based on Sam.Yes, I am aware I sound like I’m whingeing. It’s really infuriating to watch Matt and Sam be so oblivious to what is actually going on. In Matt’s defense, he’s sticking to what he believes is a solid alliance. It’s not his fault that we the audience see that he’s not in the alliance, and he’s not in on the trick. That’s what makes it frustrating for us fans. It’s possible that if we didn’t know that his alliance wasn’t strong, it wouldn’t be so frustrating for us. I actually feel sorry for Matt. Perhaps I shouldn’t, he is playing Survivor and I’m not. He may even win for all we know. But surely it can’t be easy for him to watch this now, after believing that Brick are his ‘devils’, now knowing that he’s being played. Anyway, you gotta play the hand you’re dealt, I just didn’t think that this is the way that Matt would play it. He’s not responsible for my expectations. I also have to give credit to Brick here. Given all that’s been said to Matt, they have still managed to convince him that he’s with them. Sam on the other hand has done nothing to endear himself to me, though I’m sure he is a viewer favourite. For me, I want to at least see some strategy and some understanding of how the game works. “Yeah, but…” is how he replied upon hearing Sue and JL tell him that he could only make it so far while he let Brick control the game. What sort of a response is that?! He did at least give us the second funniest moment of the episode, when during tribal he said, and I’m paraphrasing here, “I’m still here because I’m more cleverer than you guys”. The funniest moment of course was when the top seven were having a swim and talking about how Sue was the vote and Matt asks if they need to split the votes, but nobody can respond because Kristie is there with them. Then people start pointing at Kristie behind her back, and Matt points in return, Kristie turns around and Matt has to do something with his hands so he runs his fingers through his hair. That was gold. It’s a sad reflection of the quality of gameplay on show this episode when that humorous moment is what I am spending my time reflecting on. The only gameplay I feel like we saw came from JL, and a little bit from Sue.
She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone…She’s Still Here
At least JL knew that tonight was the night to make a move. In the previous episode we saw her chatting with Matt after Nick had called out that he was oblivious to what was going on and at that point Matt agreed that there was “a lot of truth in that”. So it was not a surprise that she tried to get in his ear again today. Though her claim that she needed to talk to him ‘for his benefit’ was more than a little disingenuous, at least it got them talking. Matt however would not be swayed. We saw JL and Sue try and sway Sam, yeah, but, that didn’t work. She tries a word in Kristie’s ear. Kristie basically just smiled and nodded. JL even tried to get Flick to expose her crack. Not to mention the things that she had to say at tribal after getting her mongrel on to win immunity. As JL was spraying what she was saying I was actually thinking that she needed to go further in calling out the dynamics. She needed to push Brick to have them say exactly what the pecking order was, in much the same way that Kate spelled it out to Sam and Lee. No sooner had I thought that when Sue took my thought and JL’s lead and ran with it, calling out the bonds more explicitly and putting Brick on the back foot (who actually handled it pretty well I think). We also saw Sue come up with the idea to write Kristie’s name down. Even though had it worked it may have only got her through one more vote, I thought this was some nifty parallel thinking. It was unfortunate that it didn’t work for her. While we’re on Sue, I know I said she did some good things tonight, and I said similar things about her last night. Unfortunately tonight she also showed why it was she didn’t make it further in this game. She may not be naive, sweetheart, but she also didn’t play particularly strategically. Last night we saw Flick come to her to try and get her on side, I suggested Sue leverage this last night, but she didn’t listen (why don’t these people read my advice between tribals?! Honestly). So, there’s that, but also tonight we didn’t really see her talking to anyone other than JL. She just lay down and crossed her fingers. There was no attempt at scrambling (admittedly she hadn’t laid any groundwork that she could scramble with but at least try). So, naive she may not be, but her sharpness and observance was not enough to grant her the title of survivor when it has no action behind it. I’m sad to see you go Sue, but it takes more than that (says I, worried that friggin Lee will win).
Methinks the Lady doth not Protest Enough
The calm before the JL…So what does this actually leave JL with? Well, viewers less well-versed in Survivor might say that JL has completely burned her bridges. If she doesn’t win immunity next episode she will be given her marching orders. I tend to disagree, I don’t think its a foregone conclusion at all. We did see Phoebs coast through a couple of tribals when it looked like all was lost for her, simply because people were scared of bigger threats. And though I do wish JL had called out even more at tribal, what she did say may just be enough to put some fright into people. Sammy we know can be flighty, it’s possible that he has taken some of what was said tonight seriously, and realises that if he allows BrickEl to continue he’s out. El herself may actually feel somewhat insecure that she is tied to what is now clearly a target and choose to distance herself from them and start to play her own game. Lee may think… that would be a good start for him. What Kristie plans to do though is anyone’s guess. You can only float for so long before you need to start making moves to climb out of the bowl or you’re going to be flushed. I’m having a good think about the best move for her and she’s got lots of options. If the status quo remains with the top five staying tight then her only move is to wait for the flush. Given all of the explicit attempts that we’ve seen to break that top five, I’m actually beginning to think it may not be possible to create your own crack. If this is the case the best bet for her, and JL and Matt for that matter, is actually to wait and hope that some of what JL has said has stuck, and that one of those top five feels as though it’s time for them to make a move against their alliance before the move is made against them first. I feel that JL, Matt and Kristie are not going to get anywhere by explicitly pushing a move between now and next tribal. They need to sit back, maybe, ever so subtly drop a few hints about the five needing to turn on each other soon, and then sit back and wait for someone to come to them. In fact I would argue that if you were one of the top five and you did want to make a move, next vote is the time to do it. You’ve got three numbers on the periphery that you could use. Wait any longer and you either won’t have those numbers there, or someone else will strike first.
Devils Between My Toes
It’s so important to practiceI assume that Brooke feels that taking Flick to final two is her best move. I would agree with my assumption of what she feels. I do imagine though that it is possible that she may be having doubts in her alliance given all the shade that has been thrown their way lately. Is it possible that Flick could be hoping to throw Brooke under the balls before she gets to the final two and take Sammy or Lee, or even JL or Kristie with her? If I were Flick I certainly wouldn’t be taking Brooke to the final two with me. There’s no winning against Brooke. Maybe, just maybe JL has a shot of winning against Brooke if she continues to dominate challenges and make some moves on her way there. I can’t see anyone else beating Brooke in the final two. So Flick needs to find a way to remove Brooke from the final two. The bind for her is that the best way for her to get there is for Brooke to take her. It’s a catch 22. Brooke wants Flick in final two with her, Flick doesn’t want Brooke there. If Flick votes Brooke out too early she’ll never make it there. The ideal scenario for Flick is that she and Brooke make it to final three, and Brooke doesn’t win immunity, with the winner voting Brooke out. And I feel like there’s plenty of people that Flick could beat in a final two. The ideal scenario for Brooke is that she and Flick make it to final three and Brooke wins immunity and has her choice of who she takes to the final two with her, likely beating whomever that might be (except maybe JL). Regardless, the best move for Brick is to stay together. As I mentioned above though, El may have other plans.
Flippin’ ‘El
El takes a good hard look at the pecking order…So does that mean that the best move for El now is to flip on Brick? Yes, I think it is. There are enough people that want Brick smashed, and El seems to have good relationships with Lee and Kristie. So most definitely, now is the time to strike. El has a much better shot of beating Kristie, Sam or Lee in the final two than she does either of Brick. If she doesn’t strike now then she may miss her shot and then have to hope that some immunity wins go her way.
So, there’s potentially some pretty decent gameplay ahead of us. That’s not even mentioning that Lee still has an advantage in the game, that could totally change everything I’ve just suggested to our top eight. Just please please please do what I say Survivors! Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
If you want to read about how we got to our top ten before settling in for the ride, do so here.
Well that was a huge let down. After where we left our Survivors last week, with ten of them, tonight was the night to flip the numbers against Brick and El, obviously nobody has been reading my advice, idiots. And all the pre-show hype was about Sue’s big move. Which one was that again? We found out tonight that JL hasn’t lost her voice and does actually talk (yay). Hopefully this is the start of an upwards arc for her. Also tonight what could have been an interesting twist, seemed like it didn’t actually change a thing in the game. So grab your pole and smash your balls, let’s do this.
Exile Beach, Far Away in Time
A split in the tribe? Nah not reallyWhen it was revealed that the challenges bottom four would be sent to Exile Beach, I was not sure whether I liked that twist. I felt it would totally hamstring the players and not allow them to play the game the way that it is ‘meant’ to be played, taking away from those on the periphery any hope of forming a coup against those at the apex of the pyramid. Also with a number of the voting blocks unable to have the ability to come to agreement on their way to tribal, I assumed it would mean that we see tonight’s votes smattered across at least three people. How wrong I was. When we found out that there was an idol on the beach, I was a little more enthusiastic about the twist. Another idol in play is just what was needed to shake this game up, particularly in the hands of Matt or Sue. Flick went and dashed those hopes by insisting that no one look for the idol. Don’t get me wrong, this was a great play on her part. She’s said all along that she needs to be in control, and if there’s an idol out there she loses that control. An idol in the wrong hands would totally ruin her game, and its her game to lose given the tightness of Brick and El. It was disappointing to see Matt, Lee and Sue, just roll over on that and let Flick have her way. I understand that Lee doesn’t know any better, but Matt at least should be looking for that thing. If that puts a target on his back, it doesn’t matter for this vote as he has an idol. Moving to nine players after this episode you need to be on the side of five. The best shot you were going to have to break the BrickEl trio, was tonight, or next time if you’ve got an idol. Flick also has to get some credit for taking the time to talk to Lee and Matt while on Exile Beach, and try and at least calm them and reassure them that they were still in the top five alliance. She also did some spadework on Sue, though that was less successful (more on that later). Regardless, somehow everyone knew that the vote was heading for Kylie. I’m not sure whether this was the best move, or even how it shook down that way.
With a little understanding, you can find the perfect blend
The closest Kylie came to an all-female alliance…
Is it better to keep Kylie in the mix or to cut her off now? Let’s see this vote from Brick’s perspective as they seemed to call that shot, and weigh the pros against the cons. Pros of keeping; she’s not going to vote against you; will let you know if someone comes to her to looking to flip; she’s unlikely to receive Jury votes; gives you the opportunity to remove Matt, Kristie or Sue from the game. Cons, strong in challenges; maybe Lee will suspect he’s not with you guys; if JL and Kylie are a voting block that may flip on BrickEl, prevents that from happening (big ‘if’ that we’ve no evidence for). Is that all for cons? I can’t see any others. In that case, it wasn’t the smartest move to get her out. Again without the ability to consult with everyone in your alliance, maybe it was best just to go with the easy vote. Though I do suspect that Kylie was always going to be the vote regardless of Exile Beach twist as we saw during the challenge a number of ladies say to each other, and to Sam, that it was imperative not to let Kylie win. This move however isn’t that bad for Sue, Kristie or Matt. This at least gives them one less number to go up against if they decide to aim for Brick. So what can they do to make the most of Kylie going?
Up Against a Brick Wall
The front of the line, the apex of the pyramid, the angels of the CharlieI’m building the pyramid in my head as I type to try and figure out where everyone stands. If I presume that Sue, Matt and Kristie are the bottom three and the only way any of them can make it to top three is to break the Brick in two, how can they do it? El, is tight with Brick. Lee seems to be the same as he doesn’t know any better. That then leaves JL and Sam to play with. That’s a five if they can get it together. From what we’ve seen of the next episode it seems that JL is ready to make this happen. Who knows where Sam stands? Again he showed that he is really not connected to Brick as he voted Sue. He didn’t know that the real target was Kylie. Maybe this is the catalyst that is needed for him to realise that he’s not in their gang. It’s only going to take a whisper from Matt for Sam to see that Brick is a snake, and it’s head needs to be chopped off. The head of course being Brooke. Hopefully Sam could then shut his trap enough not to fill Lee in on this as it’s possible that Lee would talk to El or Flick and give them the heads up. If ever there was a last chance for the bottom three, and even the middle three (Sam, Lee and JL) to flip it, now is the chance. If you let Brick and El remain to the final eight, it is going to require a lot of luck and for immunity wins to go your way to have a shot at the top three. I have to acknowledge at this point that it’s possible that my vision could be clouded by my dislike for Brick, perhaps it’s actually better for one or more of the bottom three to keep Brick there. I really can’t see it though. If you do, please let me know in the comments below.
El’s Belles
Sitting pretty I also have to acknowledge that I’ve made a presumption that El wants to go to final three with Brick. It’s possible that her plan is to flip on them as we get closer to the end. For her sake I hope so. If she were to make it to final three with them, even if she wins the last immunity, that puts her up against either Brooke or Flick in the final two. Having not actually made any moves so far, it is incredibly unlikely that she would be beat Brooke, who not only has called the shots but seems to have formed pretty good personal relationships with most people who would be on the jury. It’s possible, but I would still say unlikely that she would beat Flick. Flick may receive more animosity from the jury, but she has still played the game hard and the jury may respect that. Both of these scenarios likely result in an El loss, so her best bet is to flip on Brick at some stage. Final five is that time though, not now. If she were to flip now she loses the security of that alliance and could easily find herself without any other security to hang on or and therefore easy pickings. Yeah, she needs to flip at five to have a shot at winning the game. I can’t wait to see what happens when the top three start to realise that they’re going to need to turn on each other soon. Particularly Flick. Flick can’t win if Brooke’s there, I hope for her sake she realises this before Brooke does.
A Perfect Fit
Sue pledges Kappa Kappa BrickAlthough we didn’t see the big move from Sue we were promised tonight, before I wrap this up I do have to give her some credit. When approached by Flick (incidentally that scene was, to quote Flick herself I believe, “awkward as” for Flick, watch it again here), Sue realised Flick was blowing smoke up her arse. And whether it was by accident or design, her response to Flick was “my ambition is to make it to top six” was genius. That is, I would imagine, exactly what Flick wants to hear. Again, whether by accident or design, her vote for Kylie may have helped to solidify Flick’s impression of her loyalty. Sue needs to spend the next two days subtly reassuring Flick that she will vote with Flick to the top six, so it is less likely that Flick will see the vote coming against Brick.
If all goes as predicted, tomorrow night could be a great episode. Unfortunately it could also be another boring episode of The Brick Show. Guess we’ll find out soon enough. Until then, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
If you are yet to read about phase 1 of Sam’s diabolical plan, you can do so here.
We have our first Jury member, and my first and only prediction thus far (that Nick would not win) has been realised. Another long, long, episode, what the hell Channel Ten? Anyhow, as much as I love ‘letters from home’, I’d prefer to discuss the strategy and gamesmanship on show tonight. So let’s get into it.
Snakes and Leaders
“If only I hadn’t made up that fugging clue poem….”Goodbye Nick. For mine you were the most entertaining player this season. But boy did you have a bad shake. While I’ve thought for some time that Nick really hasn’t been very deceitful (idol clue aside), unfortunately the guy is so enthusiastic and plays the game at full tilt 100% of the time, he just comes across as devious. Clearly a very intelligent guy, I got the feeling he just wanted to share his great ideas with his tribemates. I get it Nick. I’ve been there. Everybody calls me arrogant but the truth is I just come off that way because I’m a fucking genius. You just couldn’t help yourself. I didn’t mention it in my previous post but there was a perfect example of this in last night’s episode. Nick did a piece to camera where he says, and I quote “I’m just going to blend into the background, just be a number” and literally the very next scene he tells his alliance his idea of how best to split the vote. Your enthusiasm is a curse my friend. Wannabe Survivors take this as a cautionary tale. If you’re as enthusiastic and strategic as Nick, you’re going to want to keep that in check and try, as hard as it may be, to not stand out in the crowd.
Nick holds court in his last ever tribal, as a competitor.With the way Nick started the season we knew that he would not be long for this game, and I’m not sure whether there was anything he could have done to make it much further. After last night’s tribal council he did a piece to camera telling us that he had fifteen ideas of how he could get revenge for the votes that were sent his way. Revenge is something that is certainly not new to Nick, and I for one have been surprised, given the bitter things he has had to say about JL and Sue, that he actually hasn’t seemed to be gunning for them now that he’s actually had to attend tribal councils. We also saw him do a piece to camera tonight where he told us he was tossing up whether or not to just try and sure up his relationships by being nice, or whether he was going to enact his “scorched earth policy”. When it seemed that he had slept on it and chosen the former, I thought, ‘great job buddy’. He then followed that up with some really frank and genuine conversations with Sam & Lee, which I thought was brilliant. These conversations were very different to the conversations that he had with JL and Sue when they joined Saanapu. He did a great job of showing himself as a human, human guy. The fact that he shared an emotional and touching reward with them probably helped. Obviously as much as I loved to see it, it didn’t seem to sway Sam in his conviction that Nick is a snake and has to go. So I’m not sure he could have done much more.
If Nick could see Matt was on the outer before going to tribal, why didn’t he approach Matt and see if they could flip it?
I was surprised at tribal when he outed Matt as not having his finger in the Brick pie as much as he thinks he does, and my partner said to me, “well why didn’t he talk to Matt about this before tribal?” Good point, why didn’t he? I guess he thought that he had come up with his plan, and he didn’t need to. By his own admission however, he realised that the plan he had come up with was digested too easily by his tribemates. Very astute Nick. Why he didn’t act on this feeling I don’t know, but in hindsight maybe a word with Matt would have been a good idea. I guess it couldn’t have hurt. Either that or go to Brick, who he tells us he feels closest with, and try and flip the vote off him. It was clear to us that Flick didn’t want him to go, and Brooke thought it wasn’t ideal. Perhaps an impassioned plea to keep him, but also showing those guys why it would be beneficial to get someone out other than he may have actually persuaded Flick to do more than just think about it. Not sure anybody was ready to flip on Sam yet.
Tearjerk
I thought Sam was supposed to be one of the good guys?! Damn did we see a lot of spite from him tonight. Behaving very emotionally. It almost looked like he had convinced himself that Nick was a bad guy more than anyone else. Like he got this little idea in his head (thanks Kate) of Nick’s character and then talked himself into Nick being this season’s ‘big bad’ and that he was doing everyone a favour, and his tribe’s will by evicting him. In my eyes Sam really didn’t come off as the good guy that he thinks he is with his performance this episode. And what was with him asking J-LaP if the losers of reward could get their letters as well? Was that supposed to be him being the good guy as well, because that’s not the way it came off at all. Kristie is the one who won friends out of that little scenario (more on that later). Anyhow, given his performance in the last two episodes I can make prediction number two. Sam will not win this game. Not only has he shown that he is spiteful the last couple of episodes, but he’s confirmed what we already thought, and that is that he just does not have a head for Survivor in this season. That’s not to say he’s not smart enough to play the game, I’m not saying that at all, hell he got in and I didn’t. What it is saying though is that going into this game he was not aware of some of the basic strategy that we usually expect from our Survivors. Whether he wins or not, having now been there I’m sure he knows more about that strategy now. Where to now for our other big players?
Flick
Flick told us she wanted to keep Nick around, and that made sense for her while he was one of her numbers. I must say though I really liked her way of trying to make that happen without drawing attention to herself. To just try and quietly shift the votes to Sue was really, really smart. She has clearly been reading my analysis and knows that for her it’s not quite time to rock the boat yet, that there’s a few other people that can quietly be shown the exit door before she needs to start making any big moves. Good job Flick. We still don’t know exactly where JL is, and with Kylie as a floater, it will be time very soon to start making some more strategic decisions about how to make it further, who to cut before they cut her, and how the pecking order in her tight three is going to resolve itself and who she would want to go to the final two with. Perhaps her and Brooke already have this plan, my suggestion is to start making those moves if not at next tribal then the tribal after, before Sam, Lee and especially Matt do something about the power that your trio has in the game.
Kristie
We’ve seen Survivors sacrifice their reward in order to perhaps strengthen bonds within the tribe in the past. And more often than not it is seen as less of a heartfelt gift and more of a ploy to curry favour. While I am sure that in the case of Kristie giving her reward to Matt, she did not do it in order to be in his or anyone else’s good books, what a result it had. Usually the ploy is incredibly transparent and does not work at all, with the person going home very soon after. Matt however told us he would be forever in Kristie’s debt and Kristie gained a game-long ally. Nice work Kristie. As far as what you need to do with that, your timing perhaps couldn’t be better. Now that Matt’s eyes have been opened to his place in the tribe, it’s time to use that alliance to do some good. If you can hook up with Matt, Sue and JL(?) then that’s a solid voting block to dismantle either SamLee or BrickEl. Again, we don’t know where JL is at, but as you and Sue are such easy pickings at the moment you really need to move soon. Like, next episode, heed my warning lady.
Matt
Matt, if you didn’t know it before you certainly should now, you are no longer Charlie’s Angels’ Charlie. You’re more like, well, if Brick are Velma and Daphne, you’re Shaggy. They don’t need you buddy, in their eyes you will just get in their way. So what do you do about it? Harness those people on the periphery and move against Brick pronto. When Kate spelled out to SamLee where they are, and that Nick was higher up the totem pole than them, I’ve no doubt that they saw that Brick were at the top and Brick will have to slice them at some stage. Hopefully SamLee will move with you against Brick, and I’m sure that at least Sue and Kristie will too. Unfortunately it seems Lee has completely lost El to Brick, but perhaps Sue could convince JL to join them. That would give you the six you need to make it happen. Kylie? I wouldn’t tell her shit. In making this move though it is important that Brick feel safe. The first thing you need to do is go to them and talk to them bout what Nick had said, and not confront them per se, but just have a nice chat with them, tell them you’re still tight with them. You really need them feeling comfortable now and strike now, because within a couple of episodes they will shift out of coast mode where they just pick off the low hanging fruit, and into big move mode to get rid of big threats. Now really is the time for everyone on the periphery to start thinking about what they can do, and how they can be used by bigger players, to start making some game-changing moves. If you can form a six against four, and a solid three within that six, that could be the path to the final three, and if you’re lucky, final two. I wold love to hear other people’s thoughts about this in the comments below.
Tonight will also see the start of Channel Ten publishing their ‘Ponderosa’ videos. We’ll get a glimpse into the lives and the thinking of the jury as they live on island while the rest of the game plays out. Good on you Channel Ten for going here, that’s something a lot of fans love and crave. I’ll probably check them out and consider whether they may be worthy of discussing in this analysis ongoing. If you want to check them out you can check out the first episode featuring Nick here:
I couldn’t end this post without acknowledging a couple of delicious things Nick did in tribal tonight. Firstly, his comment directly at Sue as he wrote her name down. I don’t think we’ve ever seen anyone do that so explicitly before, and it was absolutely delicious. Secondly, he pulled the old ‘idol fake out’. Every time I’ve ever seen this it comes off as cheap and naff. Nick made it hilarious. He knew he was going and really wanted to leave with a laugh. It was classic Nick and he left us all with a smile on our face. I hope we see you again Nick, I really do. Preferably in person on island. I would LOVE to play with and against you. Keep being you brother. In my heart, you’ll always be one of the good guys. As for the rest of you, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
If you’re yet to check out my analysis of the previous episode, make like Kristie and float on over here.
A fantastic episode tonight and we finally see the best that Kate has to offer. Unfortunately this was derailed by arguable this season’s two biggest knuckleheads, Sam and Kylie, with more than a little help from Lee. Kate certainly went out with a bang. Let’s get straight into it.
Pyramid Scheme
As I mentioned above, tonight really was a cracking episode of The Kate Show. Throughout the season Kate has shown us just how strong a competitor she is physically and emotionally in challenges (puzzles aside). Over the last few episodes though we have seen glimpses of great strategic and social game play from Kate and she was certainly starting to pop up on a few fans’ radars as one to watch moving forward. Tonight, when she needed it most, she really shone. So what did she do tonight that was so great I hear you ask? And to that I say, seriously? Why are you asking that, wasn’t it obvious? Firstly, she recognised that she was on the chopping block (there’s gotta be a better metaphor we can use in these situations, please comment below if you have one you’d like me to use in the next post). She also recognised that it was going to be difficult to really form any relationships that would save her. But she knew that she had to find a crack somewhere. In the previous episodes we caught a glimpse of her trying to assemble the avengers and create a team of goodies. It didn’t play out her way last night (she voted against one of her own good guys in Kylie, what was that about?). So she has a more concerted crack at it here tonight. Firstly she chats with Kylie, to at least get some idea of who the good guys are. Kylie of course gives her that info but is as non-committal as ever about flipping, and wisely Kate doesn’t push it as I’m guessing she suspects that because Kylie herself is such a good guy, she’d run and tell her ‘alliance’ (OMJ I can’t not laugh as I type that Kylie has an alliance). Given what happened later we know that she’d be absolutely right about that.
“Sammy no likey this story”Kate then takes her opportunity to talk Sam and Lee, as she sees it, the two other good guys in The Pu. How serendipitous that they should be the two that were left at camp with Kate. The way she plays them though was a joy to behold. Knowing that she couldn’t just say ‘let’s form an alliance’, she spells it out to them another way. In fact, you might say she paints for them a pretty clear picture. “This is how I see it as an outsider” she says or something to that effect, drawing Sam and Lee a map of the structure of their so-called alliance and their place in it. So she didn’t say, you should do this or that, she draws them a picture. To make it as easy as possible for these Neanderthals to understand she makes it a simplistic little cave drawing (I shouldn’t be too hard on these guys, they seem like beautiful, wonderful, inspirational people, but when it comes to Survivor they aren’t the most strategic thinkers in tribe). So Kate let’s them see their place in their own alliance, and also see how devious and manipulative their so-called allies are. It worked an absolute treat on those two and thus begins a chain of events that almost sees the departure of our good friend Nick.
Unfortunately, all the great individual work aside, it’s hard to soar like an eagle when you’re surrounded by Sam and Kylie.
The other simply ingeniously delicious thing that Kate does, is at close to tribal time, she pulls Nick aside and begs for help. Firstly her performance was flawless, she really came off to Nick as someone who is almost resigned to their fate and hoping for a miracle. It lulls Nick into a false sense of security so that he may be less likely to play his idol. It also pulls Nick away from his allies and the rest of the tribe so that there is less opportunity for him to see that maybe there are some shady things going on around camp. Some classic keep your eye on my left hand while I sharpen the knife with my right. Matt couldn’t perform better misdirection than this (at least we haven’t seen him do so). Unfortunately, all the great individual work aside, it’s hard to soar like an eagle when you’re surrounded by Sam and Kylie.
The Goon Show
“We’re here to fight crime and chew snails and we’re all out of snails”Again, I don’t want to be too hard on Sammy, at least he gave it a crack tonight, but it’s clear he doesn’t know how this game works. Even Barry would have figured it out by now. Damn I hope he doesn’t win. Ok, so, when Sammy sees the cave painting, you could almost see the light bulb light up in his head. He finally (kind of) understood that it wasn’t all about just being a nice bloke, as some of those others he consorts with are less than savoury types. This dude does not abide such duplicity and dishonesty. He picks up his adamantium shield and decides he needs to do something about this, the good people of Australia deserve better! And he goes about trying to consolidate the team. His conversation with Kristie was awkies. Kristie seemed to just be sitting there listening to them and waiting for them to get to their point and thinking ‘you don’t have to pussyfoot around guys, just tell me what you’re thinking’. But Sam skirting around the issue isn’t direct enough for Lee, who has to interject with some locker room words of wisdom. I can’t remember exactly what it was he said but it felt cheesy and overly earnest to me. Kristie is obviously moved by their appeal, as she responds, ‘whatever’ (I’m paraphrasing here).
See what I did there?Next on their recruitment drive is Kylie, and when I saw Sam take her off into the bushes I was thinking “good work Sam, leaving Kylie until last and doing it just before tribal”. But that wasn’t the case was it? No no no no no no no. Time for our next spaced cadet to shine. Perhaps I missed a scene or perhaps it was left on the cutting room floor. The part where Sam said to Kylie, “Hey K, would you mind running off to Brick and telling them all about our plans because then they’ll really like you and you can be with the cool kids and they will probably now put you at the top of their alliance as reward for your honesty and loyalty”. Kylie, you should be so lucky (see what I did there?) Dear reader, I hope you pick up on the sarcasm here, I know I can be a little too subtle sometimes. Incidentally, how delicious was it to watch Nick stride by in the background while Sam is trying to get Kylie to vote for him. Love your work Nick.
“You didn’t see me. Roight?”Needless to say, I don’t think this was a wise move for Kylie. Well, it’s not the right side to align with. Brick will cast you aside like I did my cassingle of Locomotion in 1989 (see what I did there?). Here’s an example that illustrates the extent of Kylie’s awareness in this game. Kylie tells us at one point, “they (Brick) just want to pick off other players one by one just so they can keep the numbers in this game” So, you mean, like, play Survivor? That’s literally the object of the game. At least we did see Sam say to Kylie that he would take all the heat for the flip, I thought that was clever. Clever way of helping Kylie to make her decision and not feel as though there will be personal consequences for her, but also a good approach for him to manage the fallout with his alliance once the deed was done. Then he goes and spoils it all by piping up at tribal council, seemingly unsolicited, telling everyone that Nick is a ‘snake’, throwing Nick more shade than a tree full of blue whales on a cloudy day. Not that Nick needed that much shade. All Sam did was a little bit of spadework and then Nick snatched that shovel from him, and in true Nick form announced “that’s not how you dig my grave, this is how you do it!! Dig dig dig dig… Well if Nick wasn’t going to play his idol before this, he sure is now. Perhaps, Sam actually knew that Nick wasn’t going to get enough votes anyway and so was actually trying to make him flush the idol. In that case, mission accomplished. Had Nick not played his idol however all they needed though was Lee’s vote and a tie would have been forced, and who knows how tribal would have ended then.
Ball Spinner
“To be honest J-LaP, I’m OVER it” (see what I did there?)Damn there were some hypnotic balls on the episode tonight, and few more more hypnotic or rhythmic than Lee’s. I would expect nothing less from a man whose profession is to literally stand out in the sun and concentrate on balls. ‘Twas such a shame that Lee couldn’t stick with the plan and roll with team good guy tonight. Though I do think, once Kylie had outed Sam’s plan, it was a good move for Lee to make like Shane Warne and throw a flipper, flipping straight back to Brick and The Pu. Had he gone with team good guy he stood to lose a whole lot more than Sam. He seemingly had pretty good relationships with El and JL, who may have chosen to stick with Brick had the plan gone through. Also, all the heat for the move seemed to be directed at Sam (fair enough, he always said he would take all the blame), and Lee seems to have come out unscathed. I would imagine that had Lee flipped and joined the good guys proper, if Nick were to play his idol and still be in the game, with Kate gone the numbers are actually still against the good guys. I suspect from here he’ll just keep playing the way he has been. Playing it safe and sticking close to his pals. This should at least see him through a few more tribals until he becomes too much of a threat in challenges and get’s headhunted the first time he loses immunity, or makes it to the end. He’s actually a solid chance of winning when I look at it like that. Shame, I personally don’t find him particularly interesting though I’m sure there are thousands of you out there that do (good one DYB, like there’s thousands of people out there reading this).
Hail Hydra
Ummm, I’m not sure that is how it works…If Sam is leading a charge for the good guys, then I guess that makes Brick and Nick the snake, the baddies. Again Brooke needs to get some credit here. She’s clearly created enough of a perception of an alliance in Kylie’s mind that Kylie feels the right thing to do is confide in her (see what I did there? – well that’s it, unless we see Kylie come out in some gold hot pants, I’m afraid I’ve used up all the Kylie references I have for the season). So good job Brooke. I know they said it themselves (Brooke says “we just won Survivor”, not sure if you’ve seen Survivor before B-roller, but I don’t think there’s ever been a season where more than one person has won), and I hate them for it, but at this point it really does seem like it’s Brick’s game to lose. They are a super tight two and seem a super tight three with El, plus they have JL and Kylie working for them. If they can keep their shit together and have luck on their side we should see at least one of them in the top two.
Regardless of what Nick does, he certainly has some work to do to make it to the end, even the other baddies think he’s a baddy.
Though Nick feels like his head is on the chopping block, it seems that he is safe for at least one more tribal as Sue and Kristie are still there, and perhaps people may feel less comfortable around Sam now. That may be Nick’s best play from here, stick with his current alliance to get rid of Sue and Kristie, then before the finger is pointed his way, he could either make a move against Sam, hoping that Brick and the others now have a sour Sam taste in their mouth after tonight. Or, perhaps he could actually join with Sam, draw him a picture showing him that the women are currently the ones with the power and start trying to brea the brick wall. Regardless of what he does, he certainly has some work to do to make it to the end, even the other baddies think he’s a baddy. That’s bad. Where to now then for some of our other people in a tight spot?
Float like a butterfly, sting like a bumblehead
While Kristie’s floating is a good plan, it will only work for so long, and historically even if you do get to the end that way, without making any big moves you will struggle to get jury votes. We’ve already seen from both Lee and El that they have a soft spot for Kristie, and she’s well-liked enough to be one of the pink ladies. I can see her forming an alliance with Lee and El, and possibly Sam to turn on Brick and Matt when they’re ready. In fact, if she sticks with Sue, then they are a solid two numbers that are up for grabs, and we all know that two is better than one, THAT’S NUMBERWANG!
Matt
Magic Matt seems to be off the radar at the minute. I suspect he is biding his time to strike against his angels. Not sure who he’s going to use for that particular mission though. Perhaps he’s actually planning to stick with Brick for as long as he can. Unfortunately for him it seems El has taken his spot in that particular threesome. Could he possibly take Kylie under his wing, stick with the angels but form a sub alliance with K, and somehow stick it to the angels before they stick it to him? I’m having trouble seeing a path for him at the moment, I guess we need to see some more from him to know where his head is at. Similarly for JL, I feel like we haven’t really heard from her since Nick gave her fashion advice on the beach. One to look out for.
Well, I think that is probably the longest post so far from me this season, I guess it was a worthy episode. Until next time, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
I’m not going to beg you, but if you want to check out my analysis of episode 14 before you dive into episode 15, you can do that here.
It really was very nice of J-LaP to give me a shout-out tonight, thanks brotherMerge is here and in the words of Robert Pollard “now the fun begins”. Not that we haven’t been having fun for the past 33 days, but as we all know, the games shifts post-merge and tonight was as good an indication as any of how crazy things can get once it becomes even more of an individual game. And with a thirteen person tribe (the largest in Survivor history) things are even a little crazier than usual. What better place to start our discussion than with Sam’s ‘good kid’, Conner.
Fall-out Boy (think about it, that works on so many levels, I’m quite proud of myself)
Barely hanging in there…Conner was loved by many and in turns made us both smile and cringe. His mixture of youthful naivety, and puppy-dog playfulness, and earnestness in the face of unfamiliarity brought him many a fan. Unfortunately, while he was the New Kid On The Block, he did not have The Right Stuff….baby. His failure to pull together any sort of alliance in this episode saw him come undone. We all know however that this wasn’t the only failing that led to his downfall. Aside from turning on Bianca back in episode 2 (had he not done that Saanapu would have been very different) I would argue that his exploits in episode 5 when he tried to turn the tables on Flick and call some people out on their duplicities really sowed the seeds for his departure tonight. He never really recovered any ground in the eyes of the original Pu, and while I don’t think they necessarily were out for revenge, they knew he was volatile and his unpredictability could destroy their games. He struggled to find his feet after being exiled to Vavau in episode 5, finally finding what looked to be a solid two with Kate in episode 14 (who should forget that trust ceremony, nawww). Well that was over before the honeymoon had even begun! We didn’t see either of the newlyweds have a family meeting and try and balance the family budget. Conner’s crucifixion isn’t all his own baby-jesus faced fault.
What the Hell Vavau?
So let me get this straight, Sue, Conner, Kate and Kristie voted Matt, Nick, Kylie and Conner respectively? And Saanapu voted exactly to their suggested five-four split? So much for Kate’s “We need to get the good guys together, AVENGERS ASSEMBLE!” What were Vavau hoping to gain from voting individually? We saw a glimmer of game in Sue when she said something like ‘I’m not happy about it and I’m going to do something about it’, I was thinking ‘about time, what magic are we going to see from Nanna’, and she didn’t do shit. Very disappointing. How they voted aside, we didn’t really see them scramble at all. All we saw was Conner try and talk to Sam. He couldn’t do that the way he wanted to, then effectively just said ‘oh well’ and shrugged his shoulders. Maybe he was coming down after all that sugar. Given he didn’t get the pre-tribal conversations he was hoping for I thought that we’d at least see a last ditch effort from him to blow shit up at tribal and drop some truth bombs about Nick (which we expect would have backfired anyway given he has an idol), but he just lay down, even through a J-LaP grilling. J-LaP gave him every opportunity to stir shit up and out Nick (I would even argue J-LaP went too far with it), but he just seemed, much like the jesus he apparently resembles, like a dead man walking.
Will the Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up
“socially, strategically, economically, spiritually”…there’s no denying the man can rap.What were these guys doing for 3 days after the merge that they didn’t get a sense of where the tensions lay in Saanapu? They could have and should have been spending time figuring out where they could drive a wedge or split a seam or plant a seed or frack the Murray-Darling basin that is Saanapu. I was pretty confident that once we hit the merge we would see a coup against Nick. We’ve seen plenty of times in Survivor when a tribe hasn’t been to tribal for a while, they almost relish being able to finally do so, just so that they can get the person out who has been shitting them for so long. Nick is that person. Earlier in the episode when he kind of started calling the shots (more on this in a bit) I thought to myself ‘wow, what has he done to be able to turn things around for and really ingratiate himself into this tribe’. Shortly after that we got about three or four snippets of conversation or pieces to camera with Saanapuans revealing they think he is a snake and want him gone. Why then did they go for Conner? I guess Conner has proven himself to be flaky, whereas Nick on the other hand, actually hasn’t shown anything concrete to them in terms of flakiness. Yeah he comes off as shady, but unlike C-dog he hasn’t actually done anything shady. I mentioned above that he was calling the shots so to speak, but that was only after asking The Pu what they wanted to do. He then just told them how to do it.
Good Game
So far I’ve talked a lot about the shite gameplay this episode, but did we see anything good? Hmmm, the strongest player that comes to mind is Brooke. Brooke is someone that has slowly but surely worked her way into a solid position in this game over the last couple of weeks. Earlier this week I was fortunate enough to be invited to contribute to my favourite Australian Survivor podcast to discuss the season thus far (you can listen on Soundcloud and iTunes) and Brooke was certainly someone who was brought up as a possible end game player in that discussion. This was confirmed this episode when not only did she win immunity, we saw her involved in all of the major conversations, either there organically because she had grown alliances with the right people, or inserting herself into conversations that weren’t hers to be in to make sure shit didn’t go awry (possibly the most awkward conversation we’ve seen so far). Gold star for robot girl (to bastardise Robert Pollard).
Where to from here?
The happy family?With twelve people left in the game I am not going to run through possible moves for every player. As I mentioned in my analysis of the previous episode the best thing for anyone to do so early in the post-merge and with so many players in the game, is to lay low and let the tall poppies stick their necks out (#analogymashup #beenlisteningtoandrewtoomuch). Admittedly, there has been a show of solidarity from Saanapu in the first vote, but surely, the cracks have to appear eventually. As viewers we can see those Saanapu crack, I’d imagine that Vavau will see those Saanapu cracks before too long. If they don’t become visible by themselves, a pointed question or two from Sue will elucidate them.
Other Points of Interest
Nick has an idol. Lee has an advantage. How these came about was interesting. We had the classic Survivor auction. A Survivor staple. Though I’ve never seen it with 13 players before. Usually in these cases we see players fall over themselves to try and get the advantage/s from the auction. Tonight was the opposite. Lee’s advantage was probably the cheapest auction advantage in Survivor history at $80. Nick really protested upon discovering what he had bought was an advantage. I guess it comes down to where in the season the auction is. At this stage, people don’t wan’t to be seen to have an advantage because they don’t want to have targets on their backs. In the past when we’ve seen auctions and they have been later in the game, advantages are more advantageous, you need something to get you through just one more tribal. Regardless, Nick’s advantage is an idol clue and he really wastes no time in finding that idol. Lee catches him looking and Nick is left with no choice but to involve Lee in the looking. At this point I wondered if maybe Nick thought both their advantages were clues to the same idol and they had to race to get it. After finding it he shares it with Lee. I’m not convinced that this was a good move. To me it looked like he had an opportunity to pocket it without Lee knowing. He could then have kept looking and Lee could back up his story that he hadn’t found it. He could have continued to share the clue with his alliance (gaining their trust) and kept looking. I’m not sure how long one could keep this up for though. Either way, he’s got an idol, I can’t wait to see how he uses (or misuses) it. I’m sure he said he was going to share it with his alliance but I don’t think I actually saw him tell anyone but Lee he had it. Maybe I missed a scene, you can correct me in the comments below.
Lee’s advantage is a little more interesting in that it is not so common. Though we’ve seen this advantage in previous seasons, I think we’re yet to see it used effectively. Unfortunately with it being in Lee’s hands, it looks like we may not see that this season either. I’d be happy to be proven wrong and to watch Lee use it to bowl a maiden over. I’m hoping that maiden is Flick.
Pink bracelets. Actually I think the less said about that the better.
Now that Saanapu has Conner out of their system I’m really interested to see how the individual game shakes down and maybe see what some of these sleeper players in Lee, El, and JL, and even Matt can do. Sammy’s a fuggin’ write off. I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
If you’re yet to check out my analysis of the previous episode, please do so here.
Yes, they’re all still here. Like Manus island, yet another night where no one gets to pack their bags…Maybe I’ve just had a rough day, but that was fuggin shit. What the hell is going on there?! I think I understand why they do it, it doesn’t mean I have to be happy about it. This is just not Survivor. Survivor is not, and should not be about production tricking the contestants. Have they done it just to keep Phoebe in the game? Whatever, I’m not here to talk about the show, I’m here to talk about the game. Shitwist be damned, let’s get on with it.
Phlipbe
Last night we talked about whether or not it would be wise for Phoebe to split up Phistie and throw Kristie under the balls. Where I think I landed on that was that while I wasn’t necessarily opposed to the move, it would mean that she would need to find at least two people to have the numbers on her side in Vavau, rather than just one. What we see at the start of this episode though, and what it seems that Phoebs is starting to see, is that Kristie has been too smart for her own good. The way she tried to deflect the blame of the blindside was, well it was cringeworthy in its execution, but it also showed us and Phoebs that Kristie was trying to play both sides and keep her options open. If Phoebs can’t rely on Kristie, then it might be wise to sever those ties now while the two of them are on the bottom. Better her than you right? Regardless of whether you’re going to flip on Kristie or stick with her. You need at least another person. And if you are going to flip, you need to pick someone that you can be tight with from here on out.
…I’d argue that Conner is actually a better right hand man for Phoebs than Kristie is…
Phoebe had a good go at getting Conner, and I think that if I were her, and had to choose one of those three to buddy with, Conner would be who I’d go for. He’s already shown that if he thinks you’re tight with him he’ll do your bidding like a little puppy dog. As long as you can manage his wishy washyness you’d be ok. The way to do that would just be to say “Conner, I will do whatever you want, whatever your call is I’ve got your back” for a few tribals. He’s already shown that he can’t lie to people so if he is going to screw you on that you’ll know about it in advance. So with this in mind I’d argue that Conner is actually a better right hand man for Phoebs than Kristie is. Become Smudge or The Thermals (power trio), and then slice off Kristie the first time you get a sniff that she is trying to make a move against you. So if Phoebs was going to vote against Kristie tonight, that makes twice in a row she was thwarted by production. It’s like she has to work twice as hard as anyone else to get someone voted out. All the more impressive that she’s still here.
Kreepstie (she was giving off a weirder than normal vibe tonight, sorry Kristie, I’m sure it was just the editing)
“Have I got anything in my teeth?” OR “a snail will clean that gunk right out”Kristie, Though I’m not opposed to you trying to keep you options open, showing Phoebs your unreliability is not going to engender her trust in you. Phoebs herself has told us time and again, she can not have unknowns in her game. Has she told Kristie this as well? Regardless, the best move for you would have been to own your decision, but still show that Phoebs had masterminded it. Trying to make out that you were not on board with the move just shows Phoebs that you’re not on board with her. Incidentally, great job here from Sue to casually ask Kristie why she was so teary in the lead up top the last tribal. It really put Kristie on the spot but did not seem in any way malicious. She’s really good at asking those pointed questions and getting away with it. She did it to find out about Aganoa’s idol and she’s done it again here. I’m sure there’s more times she’s used that approach that we just haven’t seen too. It’s like when your Nan asks teenage you, “So, you been smoking that weed?”. So casual yet so pointed you just don’t know what to do. I think I’ve a lot to learn from Sue, things that we haven’t seen in the game before. In saying that she’s boring as termite shit at tribal council.
I imagine JL is still higher up Nick’s shitlist than Sue would be.
Anyway, I’ve gotten off track, we were talking about Kristie. I acknowledge that it’s easy for me, siting here on my couch eating a Whopper Jr, to tell Kristie that she should have done better when put on the spot after living without food and sleep for almost a month. So, what can she do from here? Hell, with that tribe at a foursome you don’t have many options, you either stick with Phoebe, even after the shit she has been talking, and try and find someone else, or you throw shit back at Phoebe. There’s really not that many options. I would argue that at this point sticking with Phoebe is the best bet, because at least you have a buffer or shield later. If you decide to attack Phoebe, you would want to hope that you don’t go to tribal at three as without that buffer it’s likely that you’re going home. Will there be a tribal at three though or will some sort of merge happen first. We’ll get to that after we discuss where Kate and Conner now sit.
Kate and Conner
This will be quick. Kate and Conner aren’t a threat to each other, I see no reason for one to try and vote out the other. Phistie is the threat long term, so all you need to do is choose who you want to side with medium to long term and vote out the other. As mentioned last night, best bet for them is to stick with Phoebe for now, she needs someone tight in her corner, keep a low profile and vote as a block through the merge and towards the top eight and take her out before she takes you out. The last part is easier said than done sure, but you’ve got time for opportunities to do that to come up, and to formulate a plan. Sue will likely be one of those options. There is no way she is being voted out in an early Pu vote, there’s too many other characters they want to get rid of first, unless of course Nick bitterly takes her out, though I imagine JL is still higher up his shitlist than Sue would be. I assume Nick would be gunning to at least split them up. What I suspect though, is that a new tribe-split may do that for him.
Long Division
Once we learned the details of shitwist, my thought was that once you have ten on The Pu, then The Pu will be split in two and we go back to a three tribe game for a couple of rounds before the merge. That is the only way to give Vavau a fighting chance at not having to go to the next tribal. However, if there is a tribe of ten, or even nine, and a tribe of four, then that most likely means more than half of your tribe is sitting out of a challenge (depending on the challenge). Which of course screws the whole rule about an individual not sitting out of back to back challenges. So they will either have to change the rule, change the challenges, or change the tribes. Something has to give. My money is on changing the tribes. I’m not going to talk about Brooke’s choice in enacting shitwist as that is a rabbit hole that’s chock full of conjecture, I will say however that not picking Phoebe was definitely the right move.
Strange Bedfellow
The closest Kylie will ever get to forming and all woman alliance…All week people have been asking me my opinion of Kylie. I couldn’t care either way. Do I think she is a powerful and empowered strong inspirational woman? Most definitely. Unfortunately I personally find her boring to watch. To me she is playing neither an entertaining nor an interesting game. She doesn’t really seem to be playing the game at all. Well, yes, we saw her try and form an all woman alliance today, that’s trying something, but she just does not seem to have her finger on the pulse of the game or even the tribe. The only way she will make it to the end is through her challenge strength and as a goat, and that is actually becoming a possibility. And if the jury absolutely detests who she is in the final two with, I hate to say this but, she could actually win. That would probably be the most underwhelming and least satisfactory end to this season that I could imagine. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. And on that note, that’s all from me, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
If you’re yet to read the analysis of the previous episode, then much like Nick said to JL, “maybe you should look it up” here.
An episode without a tribal council would usually mean little to talk about, in this case it actually means we could potentially talk all night. Unfortunately I try to have some sort of life outside of Survivor (otherwise I’d find myself divorced, again), so rather than run through what this shake up means for each of our top eighteen players, I’ll just focus on a few of the major players.
Merge & Purge
I am very disappointed they didn’t let the tribes come up with their own new names…what the shit?!So it came as no surprise that the big twist that was coming tonight was the merge from three tribes to two. Once J-LaP announced that the tribes weren’t playing for immunity it was pretty clear that the advantage was the ability to choose your tribe. I don’t want to analyse The Pu’s choices too much as my gut feeling is that no matter how you use that advantage there will be pros and cons. Especially when you are put on the spot, you’re never going to be able to compare and contrast every possible tribe permutation. I guess it seemed smart enough for The Pu to go with a mix of ex-Pu, strength for challenges and someone who would be easy to shaft.
Nick’s shit list
Nick really is feeling bitter about the way he was booted from Vavau. While I’m a big believer in doing whatever you can to get rid of the people that want you gone, I do also believe that if you let your emotions blinker your vision in the game, you can be more easily blindsided. I’m not sure exactly what he was trying to do by pulling JL aside for a chat, but with Nick being Nick, it was never going to end happily. Did make for some fun television though. So what does Nick need to do from here to extend his life in the tribe? Well, as long as he sticks with the pre-merge Pu he should be safe for at least one tribal, if they choose to get rid of JL. I don’t see him having much life past that though. The way things are I suspect that move would see him on the bottom of the remaining eight. If he is to stick around any longer than this he needs to start looking for cracks in the original Pu. Though JL could be a number that he could use to help him switch up the numbers in Pu, I think it is just too dangerous to keep her around, she hates him too much. Given that (we know) Brick doesn’t want Matt long term, and Matt has already shown that he is wary of Flick (though it seems currently that he believes is comfortable with his Angels, more on that later) perhaps he can wriggle into that crack. Regardless which road he takes I am interested to see just what he is going to do to stick around. He will need to shake things up at some stage, and being Nick, I’m sure he will.
Jennah-Louise
Where to for JL though? Wow, I don’t know. Unfortunately she has already burned the Nick bridge. While we don’t know much about their dynamic when they where in Vavau together, I think JL actually had an opportunity here to buddy up to Nick, shift the blame for the Nick vote onto one of the other Vavauans. Of course emotions and pride got in the way of smart play and it didn’t pan out that way. Now she’s between a rock and Rohan’s abs. Maybe she could hook up with Brick? Brooke sounds a little hurt that Matt got his way and they kept Nick instead of Teags, so maybe if JL went to Brick they might let JL take the place that Teags was to have. Though we know that that particular place was only ever going to be temporary, I guess it’s a start for her. I just can’t see what JL’s move is. Have you any ideas?
Matt
There’s reason we barely saw Charlie in Charlie’s Angels, he was a douche…Matt, Matt, Matt… We had such high hopes for you. I’m hoping you can still turn it around but every episode it seems you just show us less and less.
“Roll up, roll up and watch the strategy disappear right before your very eyes!”
Dude, please get back with Sammy, actually work him properly rather than just buddy him. Get Lee and Maybe El on your side and break up Brick. For someone who makes a living with misdirection, it seems that you’re not realising that you yourself are being misdirected, by bosom. My Dad used to say “if you’re going to go out you might as well go out smiling” (that’s a lie, my Dad never actually said that, mostly he just said “give that Survivor shit a rest and get into a real sport, like drinking”). That was a cheap shot, both at my Dad and at Matt. We don’t even know, or care, if Matt is a fan of the bosom. What we do know is that it looks like he thinks he has his shit on lock with those women and if that IS what he is thinking, not only is he mistaken, but he doesn’t deserve the title of Survivor. Brick has already fought against him and he knows it, he just seems to have a short memory.
El to the Lee
Of all of the players in The New Pu I would argue that Lee and El are in the best position. All they need to do is sit back and let people come to them and assess what their best move is from there. I hope for their sake that they realise this. If you think I’m wrong about this, please let me know what I’m not seeing in the comments.
Have a Break, have a KateKat.
Kat got game bitches! Finally she has an opportunity to get her claws out and start playing this game. And don’t she just look like the Kat that got the cream? I would argue that Kate is in a very similar situation to Kat, kind of on the outside of the core alliance, with little she could do in her old tribe. Merge holds a lot of potential for KateKat, as long as they can identify those in the new Vavau who also need some direction, they can scoop them up and get some numbers. It would only take for KateKat to scoop Conner, Roh, and maybe Andrew and the game would really be shaken up. Phoebe’s and Craig’s pre-merge position of power would be made more impotent than a quadriplegic eunuch. I think Kat has it in her to do this, I’m less convinced that Kate does though. Kat would need to take the lead in that duo, which looks like it is the case from what we’ve seen so far. Whatever the case, Vavau is primed for a big shake-up.
Craig
Much like vegetable crudités, this scene was delicious.Without JL, Craig has a lot of work to do to secure his life in the tribe. I suspect what he’ll try and do is boost his alliance of three (He, Andy and Sue) to one of five by drawing in perhaps Conner and Kate. We know however that that is not going to work as Andy is gunning for him. Does he suspect that? I don’t know. I get the feeling that Andy has done a pretty good job of maintaining Craig’s sense of security. For some reason in my mind’s eye I see him teaming up with Phoebs, they just seem like a good couplet. For now I might just stop speculating on Craig’s move as a lot could depend on what he does with that idol clue. I would suggest that he find that idol ASAP without letting anyone know about the clue, then he can start plotting what will work for him. Like I said, interesting times ahead at Vavau. I need to point out here how happy I was to see a clue in that buffet. As I said in the previous post, that has been sorely lacking in Survivor up until now, and though we didn’t see any players proactively looking for a clue in the banquet (I’m looking at you Andy!), it was still good to see that promise of the Vavau idol reappear in a classic Survivor way.
RohBe
This switch-up is something of a stitch-up for Phoebs. Having lost her core alliance in El, I’m not quite sure what she is left with. At least she knows that Roh has the idol and she can use this information as leverage in a few ways. Firstly, she could bury the hatchet with Roh and she can use the idol vicariously through him to keep herself safe. I’m not sure that Roh is going to go for that, but at the moment it doesn’t seem like he has much else. Or she can try and form an alliance outside of Aganoa, bringing Kristie with her, and throw some shade at Roh from that side, convincing them that they need to flush his idol. There’s a lot of options here for her. None of them seem particularly strong to me. If ever there was a time to work your magic Phoebe and start bringing the social game that we suspect you have in line with your strategic game, and weasel yourself into something with old Vavau now is the time.
At a loss for words, and allies.Rohan, you’re in even more dire straits, though at least you have an idol. My thinking is that the best thing for you to do is start looking for where the cracks are in old Vavau and choosing someone to align with, and showing them your idol to solidify trust. Can’t wait to see how this shakes down. Having two hidden immunity idols in one tribe is going to be epic!
Andy
Keep on rocking brother, you’re in a good spot at the moment. Pick your alliance wisely and you’ll take down Craig. Just don’t tip your hand man, or he’ll whip out his idol. Best thing you can do now is show Craig you’re still strong with him so that he’ll either warn you about his idol, or he’ll never see you coming. Like when JL is “wearing it”, sharkskin looks good on you.
Yep, that was a long one. After that, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
If you want to catch up on my analysis of last week’s episodes, you can do so here.
The only non-white colour disappears from Craig’s “eclectic box of crayons”
After the twists and turns of the last three episodes, it was a welcome relief to have an episode free of surprises and audience blindsides. Not only did it make things easier for my fragile, sleep deprived sensitivities, but it also meant that we finally got to see some gameplay in the Vavau tribe, which has been sorely lacking in the series up until this episode.
Conner & Sam
With Conner and Sam deported to Vavau, I thought we’d see some more of the Conner hustle. Him understanding that he is on the wrong side of the numbers, trying desperately to shake things up to keep himself alive in the game. Whether by design or by default, we didn’t see that from him, and that really worked in his favour. As I was watching things play out on camp, and with it initially looking like Conner was going to go, I started thinking whether Conner had made the right move in bringing Sam over. I think I understand why he did it, because at the point that he had to make that decision Sam was arguably his closest ally in the game. It just made me think that it may have been prudent to bring over someone that was going to be less of an asset to Vavau than Sam is. Regardless of whether or not it was his best move, I can’t really judge his decision harshly. He was forced to make a snap decision without any forewarning, you’d have to go with your gut in that situation. As I was saying though, I thought it was smart of him not to try and hustle as I suspect that would surely have led to him being voted out tonight. Vavau just got rid of a big strategic player in Nick, they don’t want to replace him with another one in Conner. Had they seen any hint of this in Conner, there’s no doubt he would have been given the boot. Instead, Conner played the ‘please keep me around, I will be an asset and be in your debt’ card. A move which in the past I would have thought had no hope of having any influence whatsoever, but here seems to have actually kept him in the game. It certainly seemed like before he made this speech he would be going home tonight. He sincerely worked those naive little puppy dog eyes and it paid big dividends, with the tribe ultimately sending Baz packing. But was this a good move for the tribe? More on that below. Sam, does nothing, and that works out just fine for him. I’m disappointed in Sam. All we saw was him try and find out what was going on through Kate, arguably the least ‘in the know’ member of old Vavau. Sam, it’s about time we actually started seeing some gameplay from you…
The Great White Shark
As we’ve suspected all along, Andrew got game! Firstly, we see him casually talking with every member of his tribe today. It’s pretty clear to astute observers looking at these relationships that his social game is strong, something that I was worried about as we haven’t really seen evidence of this before. But we also get some meaningful face time, where we learn that he is a shark and Craig is his prey. While I’m watching this I’m thinking ‘YES!’ we are finally seeing the emergence of his strategy, but at the same time I’m yelling at the screen “NOT YET ANDREW!!!”. There was no way that a move against Craig was going to work this early. Especially when everybody is already feeling conflicted about Barry vs Conner. I think I can see what he was thinking, that there’s some new blood and some new numbers here, maybe he can use those to his advantage. Smartly, he assesses where this move would sit with his current alliance before talking to Conner and Sam. Double smartly and doubly smart, when Sue warns him against voting off Craig, he drops it.
“You wanna start some shit boy? Didn’t think so…”
I am interested about Sue knowing that he was going to talk Craig, makes me think there have been some conversations there that we’ve not been privy to. There’s obviously a lot more going on in this four than we’ve been led to believe. Perhaps there was more discussion leading up to the Nick vote than we were shown. I guess when you haven’t gone to tribal for two weeks, you can’t help but start running multiple scenarios in your head and this may be evidence that Andrew has started to form an alliance within that core alliance of four. Clearly much smarter than Matt’s effort last week, who showed us he had not even thought of a plan B. Damn I hope Vavau go to tribal tomorrow night so that I can see more of this. I should point out though that I don’t really see why Andrew thinks Craig is a threat. I can see why Nick was, Craig not so much. I guess it will become apparent once we see some more of Craig in action.
The Baz Boot
I intimated above that I wasn’t convinced that getting rid of Barry was right for Vavau. Though I think it was right for Andrew’s purposes, as he now has the option of using the old Pu’s as his new crew for the Craig coup (and my son says I can’t rap, h’yeah right), I really don’t see the reason that you would get rid of Baz, unless you felt that his vote randomiser was trained on you. Even if it is, unless he has people with him, which he doesn’t, then, much like a weasel with a rolly-ball, there is no power behind his chaos. Much better to keep him around until merge, where his vote is actually useful as you know he won’t vote a Vavau. Give me your thoughts below?
What Would Sue Do?
A more colourful Vavau?
Now that we know that Andrew is starting to position himself to get rid of what he sees as a threat, I do wonder what the rest of the Vavau four is thinking? I come to the conclusion that we haven’t seen enough of them to know. They seem tight enough, and there’s enough of them that they could comfortably make it through to first merge without any of them going home, provided that if they do go to tribal they just boot Conner or Sam. As they are this tight, I suspect that may actually be the best move. Stick with the four until merge. As much as I’d love to see Andrew overthrow Craig, I’m just not sure where it would put him, and Sue if she chooses to go along with it. It makes them much weaker going into the merge. We also know that Sue is seen by Nick, and maybe Tegan, as not trustworthy given what has happened to them, if she meets up with them again and Craig is no longer around, she will be seen as a threat. Maybe that is what Andrew is counting on, that it will look like Sue is masterminding this. As far as Jennah Louise goes, I have no idea where in the four she stands, closer to Craig, or closer to Sue/Andrew. Again, I’m hanging out to see more of Vavau in the episodes to come. That’s enough Vavau for now, how about a quick discussion on the little we saw of Saanapu and Aganoa.
Nick is a Playa!
It was bloody delicious when we saw Tegan talking with Brooke about how Nick had chatted up the two of them (if you missed this tasty morsel, or want to savour it agin, do so here). I said it last post and I’m even more confident now, Nick will not win this game. Great pick up from Tegan to see that Brooke didn’t trust Nick, and she started making moves to distance herself from him. Though I don’t think she could crack the Brick (see previous post), she could certainly be the wasp nest sticking to it while the season is right.
Pulling Weeds and Planting Seeds
I’ll finish off with a quick acknowledgement of Kristie tonight. Kristie tonight reminded me very much of Aubry from the most recent season of the US version of Survivor. Started as a neurotic, paranoid and anxious ball of cry, and is now starting to show us that she has had some strategic thoughts. I get it. I think I would be the same in some ways. It could take me a while to get my bearings and get comfortable in a new environment with new people too. I’m so glad that she is still here. The way we saw her subtly start building the relationship with Phoebe was very encouraging. To me she came across as very human and genuine in her conversation with Phoebe, yet she knew that Phoebe was not to be trusted. While I don’t necessarily think that Kristie has moved into a threesome with Phoebe and her El-iance, she certainly showed that she has what it takes to form a strategic pairing with someone, she just needs to find fertile soil in which to plant that seed. I really hope that we see Kristie blossom into something Aubry-esque this season, that would be magnificent.
Until next episode, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
I think I understand why he did it, because at the point that he had to make that decision Sam was arguably his closest ally in the game. It just made me think that it may have been prudent to bring over someone that was going to be less of an asset to Vavau than Sam is. Regardless of whether or not it was his best move, I can’t really judge his decision harshly. He was forced to make a snap decision without any forewarning, you’d have to go with your gut in that situation. As I was saying though, I thought it was smart of him not to try and hustle as I suspect that would surely have led to him being voted out tonight. Vavau just got rid of a big strategic player in Nick, they don’t want to replace him with another one in Conner. Had they seen any hint of this in Conner, there’s no doubt he would have been given the boot. Instead, Conner played the ‘please keep me around, I will be an asset and be in your debt’ card. A move which in the past I would have thought had no hope of having any influence whatsoever, but here seems to have actually kept him in the game. It certainly seemed like before he made this speech he would be going home tonight. He sincerely worked those naive little puppy dog eyes and it paid big dividends, with the tribe ultimately sending Baz packing. But was this a good move for the tribe? More on that below. Sam, does nothing, and that works out just fine for him. I’m disappointed in Sam. All we saw was him try and find out what was going on through Kate, arguably the least ‘in the know’ member of old Vavau. Sam, it’s about time we actually started seeing some gameplay from you…
Drop Your Buffs! 