If you’re yet to read the analysis of the last episode, you can do so here.
When a model doesn’t want to see their headshot…I can say that I honestly was not sure what was going to happen at that tribal, but I think the one question we all what answered is, how did the ducks even get in the barrel? Were they put there specifically with the purpose of being shot out? Is there a lid on the barrel, can they not fly out? Perhaps their wings are clipped so they can’t fly out and they have to be shot out. Perhaps they’re just there eating fish, or monkeys. Whatever the case, this episode was full of cliche clangers and aghast Aganoans.
Phoe-be or not Phoe-be, that is the question.
At a loss for words…and allies, and idols, and pencil sharpeners.Gotta say I’m shocked that Roh gave Phoebs the idol. Everything that we’ve seen from Rohan so far has suggested that the idol was for him and him alone. So when we saw that he had given it to Phoebe, I was taken aback. Initially I thought, this could be a good move if he had thrown the rest of original Vavau off the scent, sending one of them packing and moving RohBe closer to being a power couple in Vavau. But why would he choose Phoebs? Phoebs has shown how manipulative and strategic she can be and we know that she wants Rohan gone. I guess he doesn’t have many other options, but since merge it doesn’t seem like he’s worked hard to create other options either. His attempt at forming a bond with Conner and Andrew was clunky to say the least. Andy probably said it best when he labelled it delusional.
Roh may have been stupid to let that slip, but ten points to Sue for asking!Strangely, it wasn’t Phoebe that was his downfall. It was Kat. How could Rohan not see that Kat wanted out of old Aganoa? And what was with his vote against Kat? Did he think that he had another person voting Kat and if so whom? I can’t see what he was trying to do there. I’d love to know. I don’t even need to get started on the fact that he told people he had the idol! Also he gave it to Phoebs before tribal! His departure is all on him. Sorry Roh. Now where does this leave Phoebs?
Bottom Phoeder (that’s right, you get two Phoebe puns for the price of one).
Yeah you better run!So it seems now that Phoebe is up shit creek without an idol. Pretty sure she has no hope of getting Kat back, which could also mean no Kristie. Who else could she try and team with? It might seem from her point of view that old Vavau are a tight five, we know however that that is not the case. Andy is gunning for Craig, but wisely the shark is not ready to pounce just yet (you read me right, a pouncing shark)! Doesn’t seem that Conner knows what he is doing over there and just hoping that while Aganoans are there he is safe. I do have to give him some credit though for the way he played Roh tonight. Realising that Roh was vulnerable and just teasing piece after piece of info out of him. If that was by design (and it wouldn’t surprise me if it wasn’t), then well done boy. It’s not outside of the realms of possibility that Phoebe could start swaying him. If she is going to do this however she would need to change her approach significantly, we’ve seen what happens when someone comes to Conner with devious plans. She’ll need to be much more subtle than that, and as I’ve suggested before, find out what he wants to do and find a way to work with it rather than tell him what to do. I hope for her sake she can see that. Even with Conner, the numbers are still stacked against her. The best that she can do is paint Kat as a target and hope that she can find that crack in Vavau (or that idol). If she managed to get Roh to give her the idol, I suspect she can find a way to shift the target to Kat.
Kat Scratches Back
Kat goals…So last week I said “Kat got game!”. This week I take it back. Kat, where do I start? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, when you get blinkered by your emotions you get blindsided. I don’t think this was a good move for you Kat. What have you been left with Kat? You’ve got Kristie, and maybe KateKat is still a possibility. That’s only three against four and Phoebs. A very vulnerable position. Great work from Craig in recognising that Kat was a flipper, and using her to flush the idol. Given that Craig, and it seems the rest of old Vavau know how much of a loose canon she is, it’s unlikely that she’ll make it much further in this tribe. Unless….
Duck Hunt
Though both Kat and Andy have prey in their sites, the way they take their prey down couldn’t be more different. Kat, playing with her emotions, took out Rohan first chance she had. Shotgunning spectacularly and not caring who the shrapnel hits. The backfire could be injurious to her game. Then we have Andy. Sharklike, drifting along with the current, always knowing where Craig is, but lying in wait until he is separated from the rest of the ducks/albatrosses/seals/pick your animal that fits in a barrel. He knew that tonight was not the night to go for Craig. It would open up a big crack for RohBe to fit in, potentially forcing him to the outs. So is now the time to strike? I don’t see the rest of old Vavau moving against anyone but Aganoa, they all look pretty comfortable in their little five, with no need to rock the boat.
Cue Jaws music…Let’s play this out in our heads… If Andy were to employ Kat as his zapper take her out a-hunting, and Kristie as duck hunt dog, then he has three. He only needs another two to take Craig. Phoebe is there for the plucking but I suspect that he is wary of giving her a foothold. We know that Andy has already flagged getting rid of Craig with Sue, so potentially there’s another one. I suspect Conner will do whatever he needs to do to make sure it’s not him, so potentially he is there for the scooping also. And last week it looked like and I hoped that KateKat would be a thing, though Kate may be less willing to align herself with Kat now that she has seen Kat’s claws, yet still a possibility. If, possible idol notwithstanding, Andy does go ahead with a charge against Craig next tribal, then I don’t see much left in the way of negative repercussions for Andy within Vavau. But does he need to do it now? Does he suspect that he would find himself in Craig’s firing line soon? The more I think about this the more torn I am. While last week I thought that Craig took a big hit in losing JL, he still seems like he has solid alliances within Vavau. He also has been a challenge beast. If Andy pounces now then we have a number of people who know that Andy is a playa, and potentially a threat. Ideally he’d want to take down Craig without coming off like the strategic mastermind, but I don’t know if there’s a way that he can do that. Without knowing more about how tight both Andy’s and Craig’s alliances are, there’s no way I can confidently say when Andy should strike. Strike too soon, possible target on your own back. Wait too long, Craig gains more influence. One thing’s for sure, this is the biggest battle playing out in Samoa right now, for me at least.
Jolly JL
A quick note on JL before I wrap this up. We saw a big bright smile on JL’s face tonight as she tells us how she is massaging her way in to The Pu through Kylie. Good luck lady. You can’t spell ‘Kryptonite ally’ without ‘Partly not Kylie’.
I’d like to point out that I actually met Rohan at Survivor auditions earlier in the year and he told me there that he thought if anyone would win the game, I would. So I’m taking this as me making it to at least final 18!!
It’s late and I got nothing else for you but even more shite anagrams. Head back to camp.
If you’re yet to read the analysis of the previous episode, then much like Nick said to JL, “maybe you should look it up” here.
An episode without a tribal council would usually mean little to talk about, in this case it actually means we could potentially talk all night. Unfortunately I try to have some sort of life outside of Survivor (otherwise I’d find myself divorced, again), so rather than run through what this shake up means for each of our top eighteen players, I’ll just focus on a few of the major players.
Merge & Purge
I am very disappointed they didn’t let the tribes come up with their own new names…what the shit?!So it came as no surprise that the big twist that was coming tonight was the merge from three tribes to two. Once J-LaP announced that the tribes weren’t playing for immunity it was pretty clear that the advantage was the ability to choose your tribe. I don’t want to analyse The Pu’s choices too much as my gut feeling is that no matter how you use that advantage there will be pros and cons. Especially when you are put on the spot, you’re never going to be able to compare and contrast every possible tribe permutation. I guess it seemed smart enough for The Pu to go with a mix of ex-Pu, strength for challenges and someone who would be easy to shaft.
Nick’s shit list
Nick really is feeling bitter about the way he was booted from Vavau. While I’m a big believer in doing whatever you can to get rid of the people that want you gone, I do also believe that if you let your emotions blinker your vision in the game, you can be more easily blindsided. I’m not sure exactly what he was trying to do by pulling JL aside for a chat, but with Nick being Nick, it was never going to end happily. Did make for some fun television though. So what does Nick need to do from here to extend his life in the tribe? Well, as long as he sticks with the pre-merge Pu he should be safe for at least one tribal, if they choose to get rid of JL. I don’t see him having much life past that though. The way things are I suspect that move would see him on the bottom of the remaining eight. If he is to stick around any longer than this he needs to start looking for cracks in the original Pu. Though JL could be a number that he could use to help him switch up the numbers in Pu, I think it is just too dangerous to keep her around, she hates him too much. Given that (we know) Brick doesn’t want Matt long term, and Matt has already shown that he is wary of Flick (though it seems currently that he believes is comfortable with his Angels, more on that later) perhaps he can wriggle into that crack. Regardless which road he takes I am interested to see just what he is going to do to stick around. He will need to shake things up at some stage, and being Nick, I’m sure he will.
Jennah-Louise
Where to for JL though? Wow, I don’t know. Unfortunately she has already burned the Nick bridge. While we don’t know much about their dynamic when they where in Vavau together, I think JL actually had an opportunity here to buddy up to Nick, shift the blame for the Nick vote onto one of the other Vavauans. Of course emotions and pride got in the way of smart play and it didn’t pan out that way. Now she’s between a rock and Rohan’s abs. Maybe she could hook up with Brick? Brooke sounds a little hurt that Matt got his way and they kept Nick instead of Teags, so maybe if JL went to Brick they might let JL take the place that Teags was to have. Though we know that that particular place was only ever going to be temporary, I guess it’s a start for her. I just can’t see what JL’s move is. Have you any ideas?
Matt
There’s reason we barely saw Charlie in Charlie’s Angels, he was a douche…Matt, Matt, Matt… We had such high hopes for you. I’m hoping you can still turn it around but every episode it seems you just show us less and less.
“Roll up, roll up and watch the strategy disappear right before your very eyes!”
Dude, please get back with Sammy, actually work him properly rather than just buddy him. Get Lee and Maybe El on your side and break up Brick. For someone who makes a living with misdirection, it seems that you’re not realising that you yourself are being misdirected, by bosom. My Dad used to say “if you’re going to go out you might as well go out smiling” (that’s a lie, my Dad never actually said that, mostly he just said “give that Survivor shit a rest and get into a real sport, like drinking”). That was a cheap shot, both at my Dad and at Matt. We don’t even know, or care, if Matt is a fan of the bosom. What we do know is that it looks like he thinks he has his shit on lock with those women and if that IS what he is thinking, not only is he mistaken, but he doesn’t deserve the title of Survivor. Brick has already fought against him and he knows it, he just seems to have a short memory.
El to the Lee
Of all of the players in The New Pu I would argue that Lee and El are in the best position. All they need to do is sit back and let people come to them and assess what their best move is from there. I hope for their sake that they realise this. If you think I’m wrong about this, please let me know what I’m not seeing in the comments.
Have a Break, have a KateKat.
Kat got game bitches! Finally she has an opportunity to get her claws out and start playing this game. And don’t she just look like the Kat that got the cream? I would argue that Kate is in a very similar situation to Kat, kind of on the outside of the core alliance, with little she could do in her old tribe. Merge holds a lot of potential for KateKat, as long as they can identify those in the new Vavau who also need some direction, they can scoop them up and get some numbers. It would only take for KateKat to scoop Conner, Roh, and maybe Andrew and the game would really be shaken up. Phoebe’s and Craig’s pre-merge position of power would be made more impotent than a quadriplegic eunuch. I think Kat has it in her to do this, I’m less convinced that Kate does though. Kat would need to take the lead in that duo, which looks like it is the case from what we’ve seen so far. Whatever the case, Vavau is primed for a big shake-up.
Craig
Much like vegetable crudités, this scene was delicious.Without JL, Craig has a lot of work to do to secure his life in the tribe. I suspect what he’ll try and do is boost his alliance of three (He, Andy and Sue) to one of five by drawing in perhaps Conner and Kate. We know however that that is not going to work as Andy is gunning for him. Does he suspect that? I don’t know. I get the feeling that Andy has done a pretty good job of maintaining Craig’s sense of security. For some reason in my mind’s eye I see him teaming up with Phoebs, they just seem like a good couplet. For now I might just stop speculating on Craig’s move as a lot could depend on what he does with that idol clue. I would suggest that he find that idol ASAP without letting anyone know about the clue, then he can start plotting what will work for him. Like I said, interesting times ahead at Vavau. I need to point out here how happy I was to see a clue in that buffet. As I said in the previous post, that has been sorely lacking in Survivor up until now, and though we didn’t see any players proactively looking for a clue in the banquet (I’m looking at you Andy!), it was still good to see that promise of the Vavau idol reappear in a classic Survivor way.
RohBe
This switch-up is something of a stitch-up for Phoebs. Having lost her core alliance in El, I’m not quite sure what she is left with. At least she knows that Roh has the idol and she can use this information as leverage in a few ways. Firstly, she could bury the hatchet with Roh and she can use the idol vicariously through him to keep herself safe. I’m not sure that Roh is going to go for that, but at the moment it doesn’t seem like he has much else. Or she can try and form an alliance outside of Aganoa, bringing Kristie with her, and throw some shade at Roh from that side, convincing them that they need to flush his idol. There’s a lot of options here for her. None of them seem particularly strong to me. If ever there was a time to work your magic Phoebe and start bringing the social game that we suspect you have in line with your strategic game, and weasel yourself into something with old Vavau now is the time.
At a loss for words, and allies.Rohan, you’re in even more dire straits, though at least you have an idol. My thinking is that the best thing for you to do is start looking for where the cracks are in old Vavau and choosing someone to align with, and showing them your idol to solidify trust. Can’t wait to see how this shakes down. Having two hidden immunity idols in one tribe is going to be epic!
Andy
Keep on rocking brother, you’re in a good spot at the moment. Pick your alliance wisely and you’ll take down Craig. Just don’t tip your hand man, or he’ll whip out his idol. Best thing you can do now is show Craig you’re still strong with him so that he’ll either warn you about his idol, or he’ll never see you coming. Like when JL is “wearing it”, sharkskin looks good on you.
Yep, that was a long one. After that, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
Have you read my assessment of the previous episode yet? If not, read it here.
Saanapu loses their oldest gunslingerI’m sorry, I had a great discussion prepared regarding all that happened tonight. Unfortunately, at one stage J-LaP said the following: “Vavau half-swimming, half-running, like dolphins”. Does J-LaP know what a dolphin is? Has he just seen some fuggin amazing dolphins?
I’m just going to take a few minutes to process that one before I go on…..
so, you mean, like, a dolphin… with legs?Okay, I think it’s best if I just try and keep that out of my mind. On with the show.
Tonight saw us finally say goodbye to Pete. I’ve already written at length regarding how I feel about Pistol Pete, and any contestant, pulling themselves from the game so I don’t want to spend much more time discussing this except to say that I wish P.P. all the best.
With Pistol Pete disarmed, Aganoa dodges a bullet
Let’s talk RohBe (Rohan and Phoebe for those who’ve not read yesterday’s post)
Firstly, if you’re out looking for the idol with someone else, my thoughts are that if you do happen to find it, you try and hide the fact that you found it. It looked like Rohan had the opportunity to do that, if so, he should have. Unfortunately for him, he didn’t, and that’s where the problems started.
ROHAN’S RESTRAINT
Phoebe -“you said you would give it to me and you didn’t”. SAY WHAT?!?!
Why did Rohan choose not to give it to Phoebe? Does he not trust her? I hope that is the case as that certainly seems wise at this stage. The way Phoebe acted in the interaction where she confronted Rohan about him keeping the idol (above) just screamed treachery. There is no way I would give her that idol, however he didn’t do a really good job of letting her feel safe that he was keeping it, though I don’t know that there was any way he could have. This being the case what do you do? Well, if you’re Phoebe it seems that you get rid of Rohan. This would be a wise thing to do if you’ve got his trust and he’s not going to play the idol. But if I were Rohan I would not be feeling comfortable around Phoebe at all. While Rohan did not do a good job of making Phoebe feel safe, nor did she he. Interaction above aside, the whole interaction with El, Rohan and Phoebe about getting rid of Kat also seemed to my eyes and ears to be superficial. This should be enough to have Rohan feeling like he needs a new plan.
Roh, Roh, Roh Your Vote…
Any time I see two people on the bottom, or whose heads are both on the chopping block I think to myself, “would it be wise for these two to get together and flip it?”. In this case, I think the answer is a big yes. If Rohan is sharp he’ll realise that he really needs to scramble, Phoebe wants him gone because she can’t feel in control while he has the idol. El will do whatever Phoebe says and Lee has lost trust in him because not only did he lie about finding the clue, he also has not told Lee that he has the idol. Incidentally given that she wants him out it was a sweet move going to Lee and telling him about Roh’s idol. Machiavellian manipulation! Evan take note, interestingly this is the exact move that Evan tried which backfired and shifted El and to a lesser extent, Lee, against him. This is a great example of how it’s all in how you do it and the relationships you’ve already built. Back to Roh and Kat, Roh needs help as he’s on shaky ground. I think Kat can provide that. This is the third time for her that she’s faced elimination and I’m not sure that she fully feels stable with her group of women.
I’d like to think that if Rohan told Kat he wants to flip it, ….. he could save himself.
If Roh has a good enough relationship with her then maybe he could could bring her on side, showing her the idol might be one way to do that. Even if she already knows that he has it, he doesn’t know that she knows that he has it and she would know that (I think that works?). I’d like to think that if Rohan told Kat he wants to flip it, shows her the idol, and perhaps lets her choose who to flip on, he could save himself. Of course two isn’t enough to flip it (though Roh does have the idol), but I suspect once you’ve got Kat, Kristie would happily follow. Keen observers will note that Kat and Kristie have sat together at every tribal council.
This, as well as the fact that they seem to have bonded over being on the outs, tells me that they are an easy twofer. If they can get together and use the idol to vote out one of the other three, then that makes them three strong in a group of five. Of course this potentially makes Rohan a sitting duck once he no longer has the idol. In this situation Rohan would want to ensure that it’s Phoebe or El that goes, as well as keep Lee in on this as much as he can, or hope that Aganoa doesn’t go to tribal again before merge.
The not-so-dynamic duo
Two-Phaced Phoebe
Immunity idol notwithstanding, Phoebe appears to be pulling the strings. If others know and are threatened by this, as Rohan, and even Kat, should be, then Phoebe’s going to need to be really careful about keeping herself safe. Her only way of avoiding a situation like the one described in the above paragraph is to work hard to maintain and reinforce those relationships and alliances she has already built with the others. I warned in my previous post that if she were not careful about the impression she were giving, she might start to be seen as a threat and only thinking of herself. She made a comment in this episode when talking with El, as she was thinking about all of the possibilities and permutations, where she said something like “I’m just thinking through putting all of the pieces in place that will work for me, and you”, as though El was an afterthought. The best thing for Phoebe to be doing now is rather than saying to her tribe mates and allies “we need to do x” is instead ask “what do you want to do?”. She’s got to get those guys working WITH her, not FOR her or pretty soon they’re going to a) realise that she is a threat, and/or b) start resenting it. If Phoebe didn’t realise this before tribal, it should be completely clear to her now that Kat has had her say about feeling left out. She needs to jump on that straight away and get her feeling safe or else Kat might actually do something that is not in Phoebe’s best interest.
Phoebe gives Rohan the finger
Kylie, The Pu, and P.P.
Before calling it a night I thought I might at least have a think about where Kylie stands now that her PP is gone. Her best case scenario is Saanapu doesn’t go to tribal before merge and hope that the buffs fall her way when tribes are mixed. Regardless, it occurs to me again as I write this, just how important it is that she just work on establishing and strengthening those friendships and relationships with the rest of the Pu and get herself in a good swing position ready for when/if cracks start to appear in the big four. As far as Conner goes, I don’t see him being that tight with the four and really have no idea where he fits or where his head is at, so I really don’t suggest, though I don’t think it would necessarily be unwise, for Kylie to try and buddy up with Conner. I think that could put her on the outer even more. What are your thoughts? Leave a comment below.
Until next episode, I got nothing for you, head back to camp.
Yet to read the episode two wrap-up? You can do so here.
Sing it with me… AGANOAN down, AGANOAN down, AGANOAN bites the dust!!
Australian Idol
Finally we see the emergence of a hidden individual immunity idol. When the trailer hinted that there was some sort of twist to the reveal, I was certainly intrigued, although I was worried that Australian Survivor was messing with the tried and true formula too early on in the piece. What we got, to my relief, was the pretty standard honesty/tribe vs deceit/individual dilemma. And didn’t it throw a weevil among the legumes?!
Most everyone tonight agreed that it is a lose/lose situation for whomever chooses or is chosen to find out what the ‘special task’ is. I tend to agree, particularly when you’re so early in the game, and going off with one other person leaves a larger group of people at camp to speculate. I tend to think it’s better to stay with the numbers and solidify your place in the tribe than to potentially marginalise yourself by going off with one other person. Any time that you are seen as having more power or information than anyone else, regardless of whether the rest of the tribe knows what that advantage is, you are seen as a threat. I for one, if I could help it, would not choose to be elected one of the wise.
…just because you’re being honest doesn’t mean people are going to believe you…
This is one of those classic situations that has the audience all thinking about what they would do. For me, the first comment I made to the would-be Survivor widow beside me, was that as tempting as a hidden immunity idol is, I know I’m a terrible liar, and I doubt I could fool anyone. So I would have taken the big bag and just gone looking for idol without the clue. Of course, just because you’re being honest doesn’t mean people are going to believe you, so best not to put yourself in this situation to start with. I can’t think of an instance in previous seasons where a couple actually got away with such a lie. I also can’t think of a time where sharing a clue with the rest of the tribe has worked out well for everyone. Tell me what you would do in the comments below. Regardless, everyone chose to deceive. Some better than others.
The evil forces of…. The Decepti-cants
VAVAU
I actually liked Nick’s idea of coming up with his own clue. A shame he couldn’t sell it. He also had the awareness to realise that his tribe mates didn’t believe him, and did something about it. Another wise move. But who did he tell that he was lying? Craig and Sue for sure, but anyone else? If he then went and told the whole tribe that he had been lying I’m not sure of the wisdom of that. I’ll need more time to think on that. Luckily for Nick, time is one thing he has, as Vavau again escapes tribal council. Here’s hoping that by the time he goes to tribal this transgression has blown over and everyone has forgotten about it.
SAANAPU
Pete is elected wisest on Tribe Pu, and chooses Kylie as his number two (yeah, I went there). The other tribe mates instantly regret this decision, but for the time being they have the numbers anyway. I suspect that if nobody else finds the Pu idol, in coming episodes when next Tribe Pu gets to tribal council, there will be much discussion about whether or not Pete and Kylie have the idol, and if so whom. We may even see a decision to split the votes. Pete and Kylie could and should use this power to attempt to sway maybe Sam or Matt. So far I’m not seeing that they could get their shit together enough to actually pull it off. Tomorrow night’s preview looks like it’s going to be all about the idol for all tribes, so who knows what could happen between now and when Tribe Pu next go to tribal.
Whatever the case, it’s been clear since the last tribal that Kylie is out of the loop, and at least she realises it. So what is her best move from here? Well, she’s started trying to ingratiate herself more with the rest of the tribe already. That’s a good start. My feeling is that she needs to keep that up and just hope that cracks appear in the four (Brooke, Flick, Matt, & Sam) and that Matt or Sam, or even Conner (ha!) try and use her to make a move against the girls.
AGANOA
Firstly, I need to get this off my chest. Chester the egg-laying chicken is a he? Geniuses these ain’t. Also evidenced by the below…
Is that a clue in your pants or are you just happy to… awww shit
A lot happening at Aganoa, I’ll do my best to walk through and break down all the aspects (to quote Rohan) that matter, please tell me if I miss anything.
Clueless
Rohan and Phoebe head off to get the clue. Without hesitation Rohan chooses to deceive and sets in motion a chain of events which sees the downfall of Evan. Firstly, the duo’s performance upon return to camp was highly suspicious. It’s pretty clear that no one believes them. Evan sees this as an opportunity for him to win the trust of the rest of the Aganoa five and goes off to Batman some evidence. Good on him, nice play, and as luck would have it he finds the crotch clue. I only wish he had kissed it, now that would be gif worthy…
I’ve got a lovely bunch of coconuts… Ain’t no way a clue slipping out of your shorts if you’re packing those bad boys…What he does with this information is what I’m interested in. Should he have shared the information, kept it to himself, or confronted RohEl? We know that he chooses to share it with El, who goes straight to the one person Evan underestimates the most, Phoebe. Much like last week, it seems his acting skills aren’t up to scratch, as he is unable to hide the excitement that he feels when sharing this information and Phoebe sees, quite astutely, that he is really trying to leverage this information. Had Evan perhaps approached Phoebe in a different way would this have changed the outcome? I suspect not. Already she doesn’t trust him, now she has an excuse to put his name up for elimination with the rest of her tribe. Ultimately, though I don’t disagree with the move itself, it’s Evan’s blindness to the capability and status of his tribe mates that is his downfall. He is not sharp enough to realise that a) he’s not really all that tight with the Aganoa five; and/or b) Phoebe is much more strategic than he is aware of.
Evan let the cat out of the bag (or indeed the clue-budgie out of the budgie smugglers)
Had he kept this information to himself, he has an idol clue, which is just one step away from an idol. Also, he gets to see RohBe freak out when they realise they have lost the clue, and sit back and watch them implode from the sidelines (though I doubt Evan could ever contain himself enough to do anything from the sidelines). His other move is to confront RohBe and tell them what he found without consulting any other tribe mates. I’m not sure how this would play out. Given how Rohan reacted when Evan let the cat out of the bag (or indeed the clue-budgie out of the budgie smugglers), Rohan may have still been out for blood. Still, there’s a possibility that this move could generate a three-way alliance between them, (PhoeRohVan? Sounds like someone from middle earth).
Disproportionate Roh-action
Strategically I actually quite like Rohan’s reaction once he finds out that Evan has spread the fruit of Rohan’s loins. Rohan calls Evan out on deviously trying to undermine him, and this seems to only increase the distrust that the tribe has in Evan. Lee, however seems completely bamboozled that someone’s thrown a googly and something untoward has gone down with his bros. He doesn’t know what to think. I’m surprised that we didn’t see a greater backlash against Rohan for his skullduggery, perhaps a testament to the relationships he has formed, and/or his value to the tribe. Further evidence of this is that we see Evan desperately try to keep the peace with Rohan, perhaps for fear that he does have influence in the tribe and in the five. Which might have worked had he done a better job of this, and had already cultivated a good relationship with Rohan. As it was, it was too little too late. He only needed Rohan to vote Kat, and for Kristie to do the same, and he would have scraped through. I believe he would have had a chance that Kristie would vote for Kat had he done a better job of managing her situation last week (see my analysis here)
Where to from here?
So where does this leave the rest of the Aganoa tribe?
Aganoa just prior to losing their Evan-essence
Kat
Time to fuggin scramble girl. You only avoided the vote tonight because there was a bigger threat. Unless you can somehow eat the magic ‘do better at challenges’ cookie, while you’re in Aganoa you’re always going to be in danger. I think we did see her scrambling when she started talking about the ‘girls being four strong’. I don’t know how just how down the other girls are with that but I guess it’s worth a shot. I assume it would be easy to get Kristie on board, I’m not sure where Phoebe and El are with that though. Else, throw Kristie under the bus and hope you don’t go to another tribal before merge.
Kristie
Get in the game. Easier said than done when you’re on the outs. At least she has lots of options. Team up with Kat and find one more and you’ve got three. Try and get the female alliance to actually happen. Or is there a way she can canoodle herself in with Rohan and Lee. Maybe. I think her best bet is actually to get close to Phoebe and let Phoebe use her as a number to enact whichever move Phoebe wants to enact next. In fact I see Kristie as a vote up for grabs. Everyone on Aganoa would benefit from keeping her close, whoever can do it first, has a good resource if they can keep Kristie’s volatility in check.
El
Seems to be doing a solid job of being friends with everyone, but has shown some untrustworthy colours in choosing to deceive with Rohan. If she can fly under the radar and judge who she needs to align with when, she can easily make it to the merge.
Lee
Being the only Aganoan other than Evan to vote Kat he may be feeling out of the loop. My sense is that by being Mr Loyal and honest, he has made himself unapproachable to those who could actually use him to make a move. If he wants to keep playing the honesty/mateship/loyalty game he needs to find someone he can do that with, and I think El is the only person that comes close to fitting that brief, even though she just lied to his face about the idol clue. I can’t see what move he can make next. He’s both low hanging fruit and a sitting duck. Play him right and you can pluck his loyal voting apple straight from the loyal tree, need him gone and I can’t see how he can put up a fight.
Rohan
For once Rohan actually seemed quiet in front of J-LaP. Given that his deception has now been aired, this seems wise. For me, the best thing he can do right now is use that clue and find that idol, and take it from there.
Phoebe
Having just got her way and removed Evan, it’s time for Phoebe to sit back and reassess what next. I’m not even sure that getting rid of Evan was a good move for her right now. I get that she doesn’t like or trust him, but nobody does, I can’t suddenly see him start forming tight alliances that could move against her. I suspect Rohan is more likely to do that. I think she should have kept him around as a shield for bit longer. Now she has potentially exposed herself as a somewhat strategic player, she may have increased her own threat level. She’ll need to downplay this if she wants to avoid looking like a threat. Settle into the background a bit, solidify relationships with El, Rohan and Lee and let Kristie and Kat do something silly that in effect votes themselves off.
Next time on, Drop Your Buffs!
Hidden immunity idol looks sexyWell, this week we have both a Monday night and a Tuesday night episode, so I’m going to be a busy and tired little vegemite. Fear not though faithful friends, I will still endeavour to get you my analysis on each episode mere hours after each episode airs. Tomorrow I suspect we’ll finally see somebody get a hidden immunity idol. I can’t wait to see how that shakes down. Until then, I got nothing for you, head back to camp.
Drop Your Buffs! 