Tag: Phoebe

Episode 14 -‘Kate & Conner Say their Vavows’ OR ‘Trust in One Hand, Shit in the Other…’

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The not-so power trio
This post definitely will be a short one. With so few people in Vavau, there were only a handful of ways the vote could go, and I covered them all in my previous post. Let’s take a little time anyhow to discuss what did go down and have a brief think about what could and should happen from here.

Phoe-bye

Tonight we said goodbye to arguably the strongest player thus far this season, the mighty Phoebs. In the end her undoing was the one person that she’s had to rely on since joining Vavau, Kristie. Was there more that Phoebe could have done to stay? I don’t think so? Though Kristie may have been the one to actually pull the trigger, I would argue that luck was the gun. Phoebe had possibly the unluckiest run one can have in Survivor (happy to be argued on this). Her run of bad luck started when Kat wasn’t sent home when Peter pulled himself off (insert masturbation joke here). After that happened Kat (and Kristie let’s not forget) unwisely took out Phoebe’s closest ally up until that point, Rohan. I don’t know what Phoebe did to get Rohan to give her that idol, but it was certainly magic. At that tribal council Rohan was begging Phoebe for assurance that the KK was voting with Phoebe and I reckon Phoebe knew, or at least suspected, they weren’t but still told Rohan they were anyway. It was all she could do to save herself and it was beautiful. A sign of things to come from Phoebe.

Bye bye Phoebe. Arguably you were the best player ever to not make it to merge

Unfortunately with Roh out of the picture old Aganoa just didn’t have the numbers. It would have been a completely different game for Phoebe if KK had voted with her and Andrew went home that night instead of Roh. Phoebe then plays masterfully to stick through to the final five in Vavau only to again have the wind taken out of her luck sails and not go through with a tribal council as expected yet again. It certainly seemed that if tribal council had happened, Kristie would have gone home that night. It could be speculated that had Kristie gone home in the previous episode Phoebe still would have gone home tonight, but knowing Phoebe you can be sure she wouldn’t have voted out Kristie without a plan in place to keep herself alive. But then shitwist happened and any such plans are dashed. Bye bye Phoebe. Arguably you were the best player ever to not make it to merge (present your alternatives in the comments). On the plus side, I don’t have to see your name being misspelt again. Seriously, what the hell is wrong with Vavau? I guess it’s poor form on Survivor to ask someone how you spell their name…

Kristie

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The face you make when you’re sharpening the knife inside you.
Was this the best move for Kristie? Probably. The alternative was to stick with Phoebe and either rmake a play at Kate or Conner or risk having to draw rocks (I don’t like those odds). While I don’t think it’s outside the realms of Phistie’s capability to form a threesome with either Conner or Kate and make it to the merge, the reality is that Kristie knew that she was going to have to turn on Phoebe at some stage, and you can’t guarantee that such a clear opportunity is going to present itself again. I think I’d pull the trigger now too if I were her. What the hell she is going to do now though is anyone’s guess. Buddy up with Kylie? I don’t think she was ever that close to Lee and El, I could be wrong. We did see in I think episode three El give Kristie a shoulder to cry on. Perhaps that shoulder is still there.

Dearly Beloved…

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This was just… awkward…
I won’t go into whether or not this was the right move for Kate and Conner. You could say they just went with the lesser of two evils. It’s also likely that once merge happened Phoebe would have ran right back to Lee and El and felt as though she did not have much need for Kate and Conner anymore, Kristie is probably less likely to do that. Regardless Kate and Conner will likely now hook back up with Sue and JL. Conner even has the possibility of helping Matt or Sam if things get tight for either of them. It will be interesting to see just how this man in the middle navigates the merge. Will he be Lucky Pierre, or the devon in the sandwich (that’s right, you know this is Australian Survivor, I just said DEVON!)

Just quickly what was with putting Kate on the puzzle again?!?! So far I’ve seen her start at least three puzzles, but I don’t think I’ve seen her finish one! Why she keeps being given the puzzle is the real enigma.

I’m not sure what to think of the little trust ceremony that we saw from Kate tonight. It was all a bit weird. Like they were getting married. Conner for his part went along with it, though it certainly looked like he had alter jitters. The great Stephen Fischbach always says anything concrete that you can do to show someone you trust them and are loyal goes a long way. Well, you can’t get much more concrete than a rock (was it a rock or was it nothing?). I for one think it was a very sincere gesture from Kate, she needs a solid buddy and Conner really is the only belle at the ball. What else was she going to do, go into the merge without a date? Like, loser!

Mega-Merge

Thirteen people in a merge. In the words of Tony Vlachos, “This is huge”. It’s not just huge, it’s friggin mental. How do you find your way in such a huge tribe? With such a huge tribe with so many possibile alliances and voting block permutations, I won’t go through each individual’s best course of action here other than to make a blanket statement to say to everyone, lay low, there’s twelve other people there, let them create targets for their own back and go with the flow. I will predict though that Nick is about to go home. He is so bloodthirsty for Old Vavau blood that I think he will find it impossible to lay low. He’ll start trying to make moves against Sue or JL and once people see just how rabid he is, they’ll want to put him down. Not that I want that, he’s probably the most entertaining person there now. His pieces to camera are sublime, I’d love to see more of him, unfortunately I don’t have high hopes. Until next week I got nothing for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 15 analysis here!

Episode 13 – ‘Pigs Might Fly (out of Sam’s esophagus)’ OR ‘Badvantage’

If you’re yet to check out my analysis of the previous episode, please do so here.

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Yes, they’re all still here. Like Manus island, yet another night where no one gets to pack their bags…
Maybe I’ve just had a rough day, but that was fuggin shit. What the hell is going on there?! I think I understand why they do it, it doesn’t mean I have to be happy about it. This is just not Survivor. Survivor is not, and should not be about production tricking the contestants. Have they done it just to keep Phoebe in the game? Whatever, I’m not here to talk about the show, I’m here to talk about the game. Shitwist be damned, let’s get on with it.

Phlipbe

Last night we talked about whether or not it would be wise for Phoebe to split up Phistie and throw Kristie under the balls. Where I think I landed on that was that while I wasn’t necessarily opposed to the move, it would mean that she would need to find at least two people to have the numbers on her side in Vavau, rather than just one. What we see at the start of this episode though, and what it seems that Phoebs is starting to see, is that Kristie has been too smart for her own good. The way she tried to deflect the blame of the blindside was, well it was cringeworthy in its execution, but it also showed us and Phoebs that Kristie was trying to play both sides and keep her options open. If Phoebs can’t rely on Kristie, then it might be wise to sever those ties now while the two of them are on the bottom. Better her than you right? Regardless of whether you’re going to flip on Kristie or stick with her. You need at least another person. And if you are going to flip, you need to pick someone that you can be tight with from here on out.

…I’d argue that Conner is actually a better right hand man for Phoebs than Kristie is…

Phoebe had a good go at getting Conner, and I think that if I were her, and had to choose one of those three to buddy with, Conner would be who I’d go for. He’s already shown that if he thinks you’re tight with him he’ll do your bidding like a little puppy dog. As long as you can manage his wishy washyness you’d be ok. The way to do that would just be to say “Conner, I will do whatever you want, whatever your call is I’ve got your back” for a few tribals. He’s already shown that he can’t lie to people so if he is going to screw you on that you’ll know about it in advance. So with this in mind I’d argue that Conner is actually a better right hand man for Phoebs than Kristie is. Become Smudge or The Thermals (power trio), and then slice off Kristie the first time you get a sniff that she is trying to make a move against you. So if Phoebs was going to vote against Kristie tonight, that makes twice in a row she was thwarted by production. It’s like she has to work twice as hard as anyone else to get someone voted out. All the more impressive that she’s still here.

Kreepstie (she was giving off a weirder than normal vibe tonight, sorry Kristie, I’m sure it was just the editing)

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“Have I got anything in my teeth?” OR “a snail will clean that gunk right out”
Kristie, Though I’m not opposed to you trying to keep you options open, showing Phoebs your unreliability is not going to engender her trust in you. Phoebs herself has told us time and again, she can not have unknowns in her game. Has she told Kristie this as well? Regardless, the best move for you would have been to own your decision, but still show that Phoebs had masterminded it. Trying to make out that you were not on board with the move just shows Phoebs that you’re not on board with her. Incidentally, great job here from Sue to casually ask Kristie why she was so teary in the lead up top the last tribal. It really put Kristie on the spot but did not seem in any way malicious. She’s really good at asking those pointed questions and getting away with it. She did it to find out about Aganoa’s idol and she’s done it again here. I’m sure there’s more times she’s used that approach that we just haven’t seen too. It’s like when your Nan asks teenage you, “So, you been smoking that weed?”. So casual yet so pointed you just don’t know what to do. I think I’ve a lot to learn from Sue, things that we haven’t seen in the game before. In saying that she’s boring as termite shit at tribal council.

I imagine JL is still higher up Nick’s shitlist than Sue would be.

Anyway, I’ve gotten off track, we were talking about Kristie. I acknowledge that it’s easy for me, siting here on my couch eating a Whopper Jr, to tell Kristie that she should have done better when put on the spot after living without food and sleep for almost a month. So, what can she do from here? Hell, with that tribe at a foursome you don’t have many options, you either stick with Phoebe, even after the shit she has been talking, and try and find someone else, or you throw shit back at Phoebe. There’s really not that many options. I would argue that at this point sticking with Phoebe is the best bet, because at least you have a buffer or shield later. If you decide to attack Phoebe, you would want to hope that you don’t go to tribal at three as without that buffer it’s likely that you’re going home. Will there be a tribal at three though or will some sort of merge happen first. We’ll get to that after we discuss where Kate and Conner now sit.

Kate and Conner

This will be quick. Kate and Conner aren’t a threat to each other, I see no reason for one to try and vote out the other. Phistie is the threat long term, so all you need to do is choose who you want to side with medium to long term and vote out the other. As mentioned last night, best bet for them is to stick with Phoebe for now, she needs someone tight in her corner, keep a low profile and vote as a block through the merge and towards the top eight and take her out before she takes you out. The last part is easier said than done sure, but you’ve got time for opportunities to do that to come up, and to formulate a plan. Sue will likely be one of those options. There is no way she is being voted out in an early Pu vote, there’s too many other characters they want to get rid of first, unless of course Nick bitterly takes her out, though I imagine JL is still higher up his shitlist than Sue would be. I assume Nick would be gunning to at least split them up. What I suspect though, is that a new tribe-split may do that for him.

Long Division

Once we learned the details of shitwist, my thought was that once you have ten on The Pu, then The Pu will be split in two and we go back to a three tribe game for a couple of rounds before the merge. That is the only way to give Vavau a fighting chance at not having to go to the next tribal. However, if there is a tribe of ten, or even nine, and a tribe of four, then that most likely means more than half of your tribe is sitting out of a challenge (depending on the challenge). Which of course screws the whole rule about an individual not sitting out of back to back challenges. So they will either have to change the rule, change the challenges, or change the tribes. Something has to give. My money is on changing the tribes. I’m not going to talk about Brooke’s choice in enacting shitwist as that is a rabbit hole that’s chock full of conjecture, I will say however that not picking Phoebe was definitely the right move.

Strange Bedfellow

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The closest Kylie will ever get to forming and all woman alliance…
All week people have been asking me my opinion of Kylie. I couldn’t care either way. Do I think she is a powerful and empowered strong inspirational woman? Most definitely. Unfortunately I personally find her boring to watch. To me she is playing neither an entertaining nor an interesting game. She doesn’t really seem to be playing the game at all. Well, yes, we saw her try and form an all woman alliance today, that’s trying something, but she just does not seem to have her finger on the pulse of the game or even the tribe. The only way she will make it to the end is through her challenge strength and as a goat, and that is actually becoming a possibility. And if the jury absolutely detests who she is in the final two with, I hate to say this but, she could actually win. That would probably be the most underwhelming and least satisfactory end to this season that I could imagine. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. And on that note, that’s all from me, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

 

Episode 14 analysis here!

Episode 12 – ‘Hatchet Job’ OR ‘Can I Axe You For a Favour?’

If you are yet to read the analysis of the last episode, please head here to catch up.

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Our crayons get a little less eclectic 😪
I feel like discussion tonight is going to be rather brief. Why? Because tonight Phistie showed us how to perfectly play an idol. We also got a great lesson in what not to do from Vavau. Let’s get into it.

Phinders Keepers

There really is no better way to play an idol than what we witnessed from Phistie tonight. Firstly, the lead up play from Phoebe. Recognising just how important it was to find out who Vavau was voting against. Actually, let’s go back a step. Even before making the move to figure out who Vavau was voting against, there is the implicit decision to not try to figure out a way to flip the numbers. Arguably, if Phistie had decided to try and find another ally or two, maybe try to stick with Kate, to flip on the others, then things would have been a whole lot more complicated for everyone. Phistie would have too many other things to have to rely on and could end up playing the idol against the wrong person or even not playing it at all. So, it was the lack of a move, the deciding to just lie down and play dead that opened the trap, then Phoebe baited it. I’ve always been a big fan of the ‘ask-someone-to-tell-you-when-you-are-going-to-be-voted-out’ move. I can’t think of a good reason not to use it (comments anyone?). If I were on Survivor as soon as I got somewhat close with someone I would be using that move as a matter of course. Even though it did seem somewhat disingenuous coming from Phoebe at the time (to me) as we hadn’t seen her trying to bond with Conner before this, you can’t deny that it worked. Conner, Conner, Conner…

Then You Go & Spoil It All By Saying Something Stupid Like “We’re Voting You”

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A worthy opportunity to recycle this one…
Earlier in the episode I was so proud of Conner for taking the opportunity to get close to Kate and console her in her time of being overwhelmed by emotions. Not that I’m necessarily saying that it was a ‘move’, but it was exactly what he needed to be doing to solidify his place within the tribe. It’s clear that Kate follows her heart, and so being a shoulder to cry on and an ear to cry to is the way to earn Kate’s loyalty. Then to go and tell Phoebe that the votes are coming her way? Dude, c’mon! Unless you want her loyalty or are looking at having an alliance with her or using it to flip the numbers, keep it to yourself. Otherwise the only reason why you’re doing it is to keep your own conscience clear. Giving away information can always result in biting you in the arse. We’ve seen it many times this season (“Hey Roh, do you guys have an idol?” “Yeah”) and in many other seasons. Conner, you are clearly a nice guy but if what you want to do is get rid of Phoebe, that wasn’t the way you go about it. And as for the rest of you yellow yokels…

Burning Down The House

What did you guys have against splitting the votes? Was it just that you wanted Kristie on your side when you get to the merge? Well you’ve got to get to the merge first. Even that (very weak) justification aside, when you’ve made it so clear that you’re voting for one person then you give them an opportunity to do something with that information. I expected at least one of the four to say to someone, “this is too easy, what if they have an idol?”. If you’ve got Phistie thinking completely one way, then you have an obligation to use that to your advantage. Perhaps I’m just upset that C-bomb was voted out tonight. This is on every one of you old Vavau.

Hornswaggling Heroines

Of course, it’s not enough to just have one person tell you that the vote is coming your way, you need something to substantiate that info. Phistie played it perfectly. Firstly, realising exactly this, that they need a way to confirm Conner’s leak. Then, Phoebe
leaving the rest of the tribe alone so that they had a chance to talk to Kristie, it was just perfect. And the way that they played it when they reunited with the tribe, the acting was sublime, Gold Logie deserving (wait, since when have people received gold Logies because they could act?)! And to keep straight faces right to the end. It really was beautiful to behold. I don’t think I’ve seen acting this good on Survivor before, and I’ve watched more than my fair share of episodes.

🎤Vere Do Ve Go Va-vau? (how the stuttering German sings along to Guns ‘n’ Roses)

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A small crack in the facade from Kristie, smirk incoming.
Well Phistie are still there and they don’t have an idol. Assuming there isn’t a merge or tribe swap next episode, how can they stay alive? Well we saw in the previews for the next ep that Phoebe may try throwing Kristie under the bus, I’m not necessarily opposed to this, but let’s break it down. There’s only five in the tribe, that means you need two people with you to make it through. If you’re Phoebe, you’d like to think Kristie is one of those, that leaves you with only one more and you’ve got your Jimi Hendrix Experience (power trio). I’m not convinced though that Kristie is 100% with Phoebe, and it seems neither is Phoebe. Many episodes ago, pre tribe swap even, we had a confessional from Kristie saying that she didn’t trust Phoebe. Of course Phoebe doesn’t know about the confessional, but there certainly seems to be something in Phoebe that isn’t quite convinced of where Kristie head is at. When Phistie met on the beach in this episode there seemed to be both apprehension on the part of Kristie to tell Phoebe what the rest of Vavau had said, and also, once she did pass on that info, Phoebe had to ask Kristie to say explicitly that they would vote together. I would have thought if they really were tight, that would go unsaid. I should point out here that in the past I have warned Phoebe against coming across as the mastermind and suggesting that she needs to spend more time asking her tribemates and allies what they want to do rather than tell them. Well Phoebe must have been reading my shit because tonight she did just that, asking Kristie who to vote off rather than telling her. Well done Phoebs.

Now that Phistie has turned against Craig, the one person who I believe that Kate probably had the most trust in, I can’t see the return of soPhistieKate.

Anyway, if Phoebe has concerns about Kristie, then she may need to let her go eventually, I’m not sure now is the right time. I guess there is a possibility that she could convince the rest of the tribe that Kristie is the mastermind and that she must go, that is not outside the realms of Phoebe’s capability, but then she needs to get at least two people to believe that rather than one. And in this episode Kristie hasn’t exactly been loyal to Vavau, she gratefully accepted their trust in her and wish to keep her around and then threw it back in their faces. If Phistie split up they both have a hard road ahead. My suggestion would be, if either of them want to split, five is not the number to do it at, wait until there’s only four left (if that ever happens), it’s too hard to get another two to join you. So if Phistie do stay together what do they do? We saw in the last episode that they were tight with Kate, that seemed to be a one vote alliance though, just to get Andrew off. Now that Phistie has turned against Craig, the one person who I believe that Kate probably had the most trust in, I can’t see the return of soPhistieKate. I guess that leaves Sue and Conner.

Sue

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“Anyone got some coat-tails?” “Don’t ask me”
Arguably the biggest loser in tonight’s tribal (other than C-bomb) was Sue. Craig seemed to be her biggest ally in the game and now she’s left with Mr. Loose-Lips and Kate. Neither of whom have shown themselves to be reliable in terms of keeping their mouth shut, or keeping emotion out of their decisions. At least they could be a three to get through the next tribal with. And though Kate has been wishy washy, I don’t get the feeling she would flip on Sue, so Sue cold definitely work with that. I think we’ll really see Sue start to step up her game now. Could she be swayed by Phistie? That’s possible, if that’s going to get her through the next tribal, then take it. But as I said, if you can find a way to stick with Kate, I suspect that’s the better move long-term.

Conner

Conner on the other hand, well again, if he’s smart I think he’ll stick with Sue and Kate, I don’t see anything attractive for his game on team Phistie, unless he can find a way for them to become Dinosaur Jr and he, J. Mascis (the power trio that slays for a couple of records before J. Mascis unceremoniously fires the bassist (Phoebe?)). If Conner can find a way to do that, good on him, that’s a move that can get him further. Much like Lou Barlow though (the bassist that was fired, I may be getting a little too specific with my metaphors), Phoebe has the wherewithal to bounce back and create her own Sebadoh (Lou’s subsequent and arguably more powerful power trio than mid period Dinosaur Jr). Anyway, this particular freed pig aside, moving with Phistie is a do-able move for Conner. It’s impossible for me to say whether this particular move would get him further than aligning with Sue and Kate, your thoughts?

Bye Bye Pride

I can’t end this post without acknowledging the C-bomb, Craig. Though he may not have started as my favourite, he certainly showed in the last couple of episodes what a loveable character he was. He played incredibly hard physically, showing a tenacity we’d not witnessed on Survivor for some time, and also a very social game. He seemed to be down with everyone, a finger in every pie, and these were very sincere relationships. I got the impression he really connected with everyone he was involved with and showed them respect and care. Later C-bomb, hope we see you again.

Ok, that actually ended up being longer than expected from an episode that really didn’t have any twists or turns, and we didn’t even talk about The Pu. There was nothing there that I found interesting anyway, though I’m looking forward to them finally losing so we can see how all these subtle power shifts actually play out. Until tomorrow, I got nothing for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

 

Episode 13 analysis here!

Episode 11 – ‘Throwing Challenges’ OR ‘Throwing Challengers Under the Bus’

If you’re yet to read my analysis of the previous episode, head on over here.

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Now who’s swimming with the fishes?
Tribal number 10 is in the bag (dammit I could have used a Kat in the bag pun last night!) and we finally say goodbye, some would say sadly, others gleefully, to everybody’s favourite wolf in sheep’s clothing, Andy. So it seems only appropriate that we start discussions this evening by documenting his downfall.

Andrew, “not a flexible guy”

The fish has left the barrel. Though I for one have loved watching Andy since day one, thinking that he had the goods to make it all the way, but as many people much more knowledgable than little old me have said, “timing is everything in this game”, I think Andy even said it once this season. Appropriately, it was Andy’s number one target, Craig that hammered the last nail into his coffin. Did Andy have an opportunity to take Craig out first though? Before I continue I need to acknowledge that for the last 5 or 6 episodes I’ve been commenting that Andy should hold off on making his move. And it’s easy for me to say, after watching the episode, that he needed to make his move tonight. Unfortunately, he didn’t set himself up well to be able to make that move. Let’s start with what happened after the last council. Furious that his name had been written down, he decided to wage war on Kristie. Again, playing with his emotions and not with his head. There was a fantastic opportunity to talk to Kristie and Phoebe (Phistie) after the tribal when they went to the well. Notwithstanding what Old Vavau may have thought of this, ideally this could have been the start of finding a few new recruits to aid his cause. Instead, he chose to brag to camera.

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When he finally did approach Kristie it was too little too late. And what did he offer them as an alternative, Kate? Surely he could see that Kate was their number one ally in the tribe. There was no way Phistie would agree to get rid of Kate. Andy just hasn’t seemed to be playing the same game that he was playing before the tribe swap. Before the tribe swap we saw him talking to and being sociable with everyone on Vavau. Since the tribe swap, and even since Nick and Tegan left, we’ve seen a different Andy, one who only wants to associate with his alliance. Certainly he may have been sociable with the newcomers and we just didn’t see it. My point is that by not playing that social game with everyone that he used to play, he did not have the ability to sway the votes when he needed to. Of course the fact that he was not performing in challenges didn’t help. It almost looked like in that coconut throwing challenge, he was, er, throwing the challenge. So when you add this performance in the challenge to the fact that he doesn’t really have a lot of friends, loyalty is only valuable up to a point. This point. Which is exactly what Craig realised.

You Don’t Want to be on Craig’s List.

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Gesundheit
I am becoming more and more impressed with Craig. He’s fast becoming a favourite to make it close to the end. This was a great move for Craig for a number of reasons. Firstly, he got rid of his number one enemy, Andy, and he may not have even realised it. Even if he didn’t feel Andy was a threat to him yet, I’ve no doubt that he realised that he would be one to him later. Kate and Kristie however, probably don’t pose much of a threat at all (happy to be convinced otherwise in the comments below). By scooping up Kate, who has really been floating for a while, he may have found himself a little puppy to do his bidding later in the game. Again, I may be underestimating Kate. I must say that I was a little surprised that he didn’t let the others know about his decision to vote Andy. Not informing Conner I can understand, given Conner’s track record for starting crazy shit at tribal councils. I’d be interested to see what Sue thinks though. Sue has always said that she is loyal to her five, but Craig may have dented that by not trusting Sue with that information. Perhaps I’m wrong. Perhaps he did tell Sue and she just couldn’t bring herself to writing Andy’s name down. Even if he did tell her I suspect it wouldn’t have made much of a difference. I don’t think that she’s so loyal to Andy that she would have told Andy so that he could switch things, and even if she did, what could Andy actually have done? It seemed that Andy wouldn’t have had time to make a serious move against Craig, especially having not already done the leg work with Phistie or Kate. Craig on the other hand couldn’t have put in more legwork, both literally and figuratively. He has been an absolute mountain in those rope holding challenges, and over the last two episodes we have seen him have multiple, sincere conversations with everyone. Everyone. The work that he did last tribal with both Kate, and Phistie, while it hasn’t actually borne fruit for him, it is certainly blossoming. But where to for him for now?

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All of this time you could have been using it for toilet paper buddy…
It looks like he will be spending a lot of time looking for that idol in the nest episode and understandably so. Without an Andy shield there is potentially a target on his back now. I’m sure he is hoping that Phistie won’t flip on him now. If he is committed to working with them then I guess his only option is to move against Conner. I’m not so sure that he should commit himself to them though. I think that the longer they are around the more power they get, with only six people left in the tribe I would be trying to break up the soPhistieKate trio pronto. How he’s going to do this I’m not sure, and it’s not looking good with Phoebe having the idol.

Phighting Phit (no, this play on ‘f’ won’t end soon)

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“Laters…”
With Phoebe having the idol, and a seemingly solid alliance in Kate and Kristie, she’s gone from being on the bottom of Vavau to being in arguably the best position in Vavau and perhaps even the game right now. But who is her best path to the merge? The soPhistieKate three are a fantastic vehicle for Phoebe to make it to through the merge and all the way to the end. Kate for one seems like she has finally found her tribe in Phistie, and though she is a strong competitor in challenges and seems like a lovely person, she so far hasn’t shown us that she has the head for strategy or the stomach for big moves. I would argue that going against Kate in the final two would be perfect for Phoebe, who has a much better island story than Kate. Kristie seems to be riding this Phoebe thing for everything it’s worth, but given the confessional that we saw about three or four episodes ago, I’m not convinced that she wouldn’t flip on Phoebe if shown a better opportunity. It’s hard to tell. Phoebe may be able to strengthen this alliance with Kristie by giving her the idol, that would certainly show Kristie that Phoebe trusts her and is in her corner and may just win Kristie over 100%. Once soPhistieKate have made it through the merge, they can easily hook up with Lee and El and the game is theirs for the taking. Craig, Sue and Conner by contrast have little to look forward to at merge time.

Where to for Kate?

Lookout lady, if Craig, Sue and Conner see that you are in a trio with Phistie, then they may choose to disable that trio by taking you out. Keep getting close to Phistie, maybe they’ll share with you that they have an idol and this could keep you safe for another tribal. Stick with those two and hopefully you’ll make it through the merge.

Sue and Conner

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If I had a dollar for every time some chump said “dig deep” tonight…
The best that they can hope for now is to see that power now rests with soPhistieKate and make a move with them. For Sue, her best bet would be to make a move against Conner, and hope that Craig makes it through to the merge with her so she at least has a possible trio when added to JL (if she’s still there). For Conner, well I’m not so sure what he can cook up now, in terms of making it through one more tribal he can go with soPhistieKate and vote against whomever they want, beyond that, I can’t see him making it much further unless someone wants to take him under their wing as a goat, which means he might make it to the end but won’t win. I see little hope for him in this game. If you have any idea what possible path he could take to move further in this game please share it in the comments below. Good luck though little buddy.

Saanawho?

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🎤 “Saanapu, Saanapuuuuu, (now we are here) in Saanapuuuu” 🎤
I can’t finish up without at least mentioning that there is a whole other tribe that exists in this game. The Pu. As much as I’d love to see Vavau implode and be decimated before merge, I do miss my Pu. I’m very curious to see what sort of alliances and voting blocks are emerging over there and what other tricks Nick has up his sleeve (Matt isn’t the only magician over there). Until next time, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 12 analysis here!

Episode 10 – ‘Dish Best Served Cold…’ OR ‘Humble Pie’

Want to check out the analysis of the previous episode before you continue? Do so here.

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Kat joins the ‘Overthrown Benevolent Dictators’ Club. Say hello to Kevin Rudd for me.
Another delicious episode served. Let’s go ahead and digest it. It looks like I’ll be writing the word ‘Phoebe’ a lot again tonight. Firstly, how great was Phoebe’s opening piece to camera, admitting that she had been stupid and blind not to see Kat’s backflip, eating a big old slice of humble pie. This was in stark contrast to Kat’s behavior tonight, which was the opposite of eating humble pie. That’s right, regurgitating conceited sandwich. She was just throwing that shit up left, right and centre. I haven’t witnessed so much bile since Stephen Fischbach’s #SevereGastrointestinalDistress. C’mon Kat, I must have said it at least three times already this season, when you are blinkered by revenge and emotions, you get blindsided. Obviously Kat hasn’t been listening to me. I guess she doesn’t have wifi on island. Now Phoebe has distanced herself from the sceptic projectiles Kat is spewing she at least seems in a slightly better position than at the end of last episode. Let’s breakdown just how she made it through yet another tribal.

Clueless, or Batgirl?

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WIth an idol in her hands she bedevils playthings… (No, we’re not off to a good start are we?)

Phoebe must have done a lot of things right tonight, though some of them certainly seem questionable. Firstly, she found the idol. It’s about time we had someone proactive about finding the idol. Desperate times called for desperate measures and Phoebe certainly rose to the challenge. Great work. What about telling Kat and Kristie though that she had it? pheo idol works.gif
I almost shat myself when she did that. After what Kat had done to her last tribal, and after Phoebe telling us that ‘Kat is dead to me’ I was shocked that she would even consider telling Kat she had the idol. We know now that she voted against Kat, but I’m not convinced that she had already decided to do that when she told Kat about the idol. We did see a scene with Phoebe and Craig where Craig had told both Phoebs and Kristie that he would let them know which way old Vavau was voting. Perhaps that’s a scene we didn’t see and this happened before she told Kat about the idol. (Incidentally how beautiful was it to watch Craig switch it up in that scene once Andy appeared? Andy’s BS radar must have been playing up because if that was me mine would have been bing bing binging more than Hector Salamanca!hector.gif). If she had made that decision before telling Kat about the idol, then this may have been a really smart way to dissuade Kat from voting against her, with minimal repercussions as when Kat goes so does one more person who knows/suspects that Phoebs has an idol. Fark it’s risky though. You can’t herd a Kat. My sense is that Phoebs told those women about the idol moments before heading to tribal, not allowing Kat to use that knowledge in some other way.

There’s also the possibility that Phoebs switched her vote to Kat after hearing what Kat had to say at the tribal, that she had approached Vavau and had told them she was with them. If this is the case though it would seem like potentially a throw away vote if no-one else is voting Kat, unless of course Phoebs decides to play her idol, which she doesn’t. I suspect it’s more likely that Craig told her that the play was against Kat, or she found out some other way. Conner? Did Andy tell her to sure himself up for his Craig coup? I’d like to think that Phoebs was gunning for Kat from the moment Kat wrote Roh’s name down last tribal. If so, damn girl that was stone cold! What a way to serve your revenge! I guess we’ll never know the mechanics behind Phoebe’s move, but it’s fun to speculate.

Kat Gets Creamed

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I’ll let you caption this one yourself. I’m not going there…
After the shenanigans of last tribal it was pretty clear that old Vavau just wanted to use Kat to split up RohBe and flush an idol and then they would be done with her. If Kat was ever going to make it through another tribal she needed to do more post-RohGo than preen, prance, and crow around camp. Not only was it not becoming of her to her tribe mates, but it actually doesn’t achieve anything. Things may have been different had the tribal not flushed the idol. Old Vavau may still have had a use for her then. If ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ were candy and nuts then Kat may still be surviving. I don’t know that there’s actually anything she could have done to save herself tonight short of using Phoebs idol against her, but it seems she was not given the opportunity to do that. I would actually argue that her biggest downfall was not knowing what was going on around camp and generally feeling she was safe and in with Old Vavau. Some tribe awareness would have gone a long way tonight. If she had even the slightest hint that votes were coming her way she could have at least made a scene at tribal, outed Phoebs as having the idol and maybe, just maybe, she could have deflected some votes. Perhaps Andy really was a solid plan B for Craig and Kat, and dropping such a bomb might actually spook them enough to enact plan B. ‘Ifs’ & ‘buts’ huh? Was Andy really on the chopping block though?

Animal Man

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Will tomorrow night’s episode serve up some Andy steak?
Though I usually don’t like to discuss the show itself and the editing, preferring mainly to focus on the gameplay, one couldn’t tonight escape the rough treatment Andy was getting. According to who you ask on any given day the man is a shark, a rat, a sly-dog, a sloth or a snake with the personality of a fish. The man is a walking fucking menagerie. We also learned that when Andy suits up to ‘get down to business’ he puts on his hat. Just what fucking job does this man do where he needs a special business hat?! If I were more talented here is where I would post a photo of am Andy-faced rat wearing a hat and shooting fish in a barrel. Unfortunately I’m not that talented so you’ll just have to use your imagination. For those that have none, trust me, it’s a fucking hilarious image. Anyhow, whether he just dodged a bullet tonight or not, it appears that not everyone is as down with Andy as we first thought. Perhaps he ain’t playing the under the radar game as much as he suspects. In my experience rat-faced sly dog snake shark emus generally don’t blend in to the background. His name was thrown around a lot. First by Kate. I can’t get a read on Kate, was this her attempt at employing some strategy? Craig does a great job of listening to her and telling her what an awesome idea she has had, but I don’t think we see the idea of booting Andy discussed with anyone else other than Aganoans, which leads me to believe that this was a red herring for Kat, and for the audience. What we’re left with though is a pissed off Andy, and that is one particular zoological oddity that I would not want to mess with. Again, if Andy’s smart, and fuck knows he’s told us often enough that he is, he will not let those emotions get in the way of his strategy. Though I’m all for getting rid of people who want you gone, I don’t think that Kristie actually has the power to do so. He’s much better off taking the opportunity now to strike against Craig if that is his main target. If he doesn’t move soon Craig is going to scoop up Kristie and Phoebs and use them for his own purposes, of which we are sadly unaware. What would Phoebe and Kristie’s (Phistie?) best course of action now be?

Phistie of Phury

I suspect that now that Kristie has lost her Kat (a real shame for me as I wanted them to hook up with Kate so that I could use ‘KKKlan’) what is she likely to do? Well she has told us in the past just how dubious she is of trusting Phoebe, and she should be even more so now that she contributed to voting out Kat (although Kristie might not actually know that, and if I were Phoebe I wouldn’t be telling her). But she may not have many other options. imageWe have seen Kristie try and bond with Kate and given their personalities the alliance is not inconceivable, in fact it may actually be a great move for them. Especially if the two of them can somehow get Conner, who in my mind and the mind of Andy is a floater. The three of them could then be quite the power trio (please tell me your suggestion for power trio names in the comments below, all I’m coming up with is Nirvana and we know how that turned out), and I’m sure Kristie could find some way to leverage her knowledge of Phoebe’s idol. Either in recruiting Phoebs, or outing it’s existence to Old Vavau to create a new target. Phoebs may actually choose to tell Kristie that the idol was all a ruse to get Kristie to board her train. Though I suspect that such a move would actually only reinforce in Kristie the idea that Phoebe is dangerous and not to be trusted and will work against Phoebe in the long run. Unless of course Phoebe’s move now is to shift the target to Kristie so that she can see out another tribal and get one step closer to the merge. Whatever that case we can see there are a plethora of options for Phistie and I for one can’t wait to see what they come up with.

So what about Conner and Kate?

As mentioned above, if they can get together they can actually have some power in this tribe. They’re both reasonable at challenges and it seems no one has anything against them. I think the best move for them is to a) hook up, and then b) just sit back and let the rest of Vavau come to them. You’ve got Phistie looking for some foothold to stay in the tribe, and you’ve got Andy on the hunt for his big game. Sit back and let those two sides plus Craig come to you, and then assess your options. There are pros and cons for all of those and going down that particular rabbit hole is too much of a head spin for me this late at night. I have to get sleep at some stage. Tell me what you think.

Hand on the Rung (please singalong to the Paul McCartney & Wings song ‘Band on the Run’ or I’ve just wasted a pun)

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This is what happens when you rely on google for all your jokes…
Just a quick note regarding tonight’s immunity challenge before I go. Damn that looked like a fun challenge. Great to see Matt and Nick working together on the rung puzzle, can’t wait to see which of these two win puzzle wars once the merge happens. Whenever I’ve seen this particular type of puzzle on Survivor in the past I’ve always wondered why nobody does the puzzle outside of the frame first. At least tonight it sounded like Craig had the same idea. Perhaps they’re not allowed to.

Until tomorrow night’s episode of ‘Everybody Hates Andy’, I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 11 analysis here!

Episode 9 – ‘Sharpest Duck in the Barrel’ or ‘Shooting Pencils out of a Case’

If you’re yet to read the analysis of the last episode, you can do so here.

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When a model doesn’t want to see their headshot…
I can say that I honestly was not sure what was going to happen at that tribal, but I think the one question we all what answered is, how did the ducks even get in the barrel? Were they put there specifically with the purpose of being shot out? Is there a lid on the barrel, can they not fly out? Perhaps their wings are clipped so they can’t fly out and they have to be shot out. Perhaps they’re just there eating fish, or monkeys. Whatever the case, this episode was full of cliche clangers and aghast Aganoans.

Phoe-be or not Phoe-be, that is the question.

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At a loss for words…and allies, and idols, and pencil sharpeners.
Gotta say I’m shocked that Roh gave Phoebs the idol. Everything that we’ve seen from Rohan so far has suggested that the idol was for him and him alone. So when we saw that he had given it to Phoebe, I was taken aback. Initially I thought, this could be a good move if he had thrown the rest of original Vavau off the scent, sending one of them packing and moving RohBe closer to being a power couple in Vavau. But why would he choose Phoebs? Phoebs has shown how manipulative and strategic she can be and we know that she wants Rohan gone. I guess he doesn’t have many other options, but since merge it doesn’t seem like he’s worked hard to create other options either. His attempt at forming a bond with Conner and Andrew was clunky to say the least. Andy probably said it best when he labelled it delusional.

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Roh may have been stupid to let that slip, but ten points to Sue for asking!
Strangely, it wasn’t Phoebe that was his downfall. It was Kat. How could Rohan not see that Kat wanted out of old Aganoa? And what was with his vote against Kat? Did he think that he had another person voting Kat and if so whom? I can’t see what he was trying to do there. I’d love to know. I don’t even need to get started on the fact that he told people he had the idol! Also he gave it to Phoebs before tribal! His departure is all on him. Sorry Roh. Now where does this leave Phoebs?

Bottom Phoeder (that’s right, you get two Phoebe puns for the price of one).

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Yeah you better run!
So it seems now that Phoebe is up shit creek without an idol. Pretty sure she has no hope of getting Kat back, which could also mean no Kristie. Who else could she try and team with? It might seem from her point of view that old Vavau are a tight five, we know however that that is not the case. Andy is gunning for Craig, but wisely the shark is not ready to pounce just yet (you read me right, a pouncing shark)! Doesn’t seem that Conner knows what he is doing over there and just hoping that while Aganoans are there he is safe. I do have to give him some credit though for the way he played Roh tonight. Realising that Roh was vulnerable and just teasing piece after piece of info out of him. If that was by design (and it wouldn’t surprise me if it wasn’t), then well done boy. It’s not outside of the realms of possibility that Phoebe could start swaying him. If she is going to do this however she would need to change her approach significantly, we’ve seen what happens when someone comes to Conner with devious plans. She’ll need to be much more subtle than that, and as I’ve suggested before, find out what he wants to do and find a way to work with it rather than tell him what to do. I hope for her sake she can see that. Even with Conner, the numbers are still stacked against her. The best that she can do is paint Kat as a target and hope that she can find that crack in Vavau (or that idol). If she managed to get Roh to give her the idol, I suspect she can find a way to shift the target to Kat.

Kat Scratches Back

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Kat goals…
So last week I said “Kat got game!”. This week I take it back. Kat, where do I start? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, when you get blinkered by your emotions you get blindsided. I don’t think this was a good move for you Kat. What have you been left with Kat? You’ve got Kristie, and maybe KateKat is still a possibility. That’s only three against four and Phoebs. A very vulnerable position. Great work from Craig in recognising that Kat was a flipper, and using her to flush the idol. Given that Craig, and it seems the rest of old Vavau  know how much of a loose canon she is, it’s unlikely that she’ll make it much further in this tribe. Unless….

Duck Hunt

Though both Kat and Andy have prey in their sites, the way they take their prey down couldn’t be more different. Kat, playing with her emotions, took out Rohan first chance she had. Shotgunning spectacularly and not caring who the shrapnel hits. The backfire could be injurious to her game. Then we have Andy. Sharklike, drifting along with the current, always knowing where Craig is, but lying in wait until he is separated from the rest of the ducks/albatrosses/seals/pick your animal that fits in a barrel. He knew that tonight was not the night to go for Craig. It would open up a big crack for RohBe to fit in, potentially forcing him to the outs. So is now the time to strike? I don’t see the rest of old Vavau moving against anyone but Aganoa, they all look pretty comfortable in their little five, with no need to rock the boat.

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Cue Jaws music…
Let’s play this out in our heads… If Andy were to employ Kat as his zapper take her out a-hunting, and Kristie as duck hunt dog, then he has three. He only needs another two to take Craig. Phoebe is there for the plucking but I suspect that he is wary of giving her a foothold. We know that Andy has already flagged getting rid of Craig with Sue, so potentially there’s another one. I suspect Conner will do whatever he needs to do to make sure it’s not him, so potentially he is there for the scooping also. And last week it looked like and I hoped that KateKat would be a thing, though Kate may be less willing to align herself with Kat now that she has seen Kat’s claws, yet still a possibility. If, possible idol notwithstanding, Andy does go ahead with a charge against Craig next tribal, then I don’t see much left in the way of negative repercussions for Andy within Vavau. But does he need to do it now? Does he suspect that he would find himself in Craig’s firing line soon? The more I think about this the more torn I am. While last week I thought that Craig took a big hit in losing JL, he still seems like he has solid alliances within Vavau. He also has been a challenge beast. If Andy pounces now then we have a number of people who know that Andy is a playa, and potentially a threat. Ideally he’d want to take down Craig without coming off like the strategic mastermind, but I don’t know if there’s a way that he can do that. Without knowing more about how tight both Andy’s and Craig’s alliances are, there’s no way I can confidently say when Andy should strike. Strike too soon, possible target on your own back. Wait too long, Craig gains more influence. One thing’s for sure, this is the biggest battle playing out in Samoa right now, for me at least.

Jolly JL

A quick note on JL before I wrap this up. We saw a big bright smile on JL’s face tonight as she tells us how she is massaging her way in to The Pu through Kylie. Good luck lady. You can’t spell ‘Kryptonite ally’ without ‘Partly not Kylie’.

I’d like to point out that I actually met Rohan at Survivor auditions earlier in the year and he told me there that he thought if anyone would win the game, I would. So I’m taking this as me making it to at least final 18!!

It’s late and I got nothing else for you but even more shite anagrams. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

 

Episode 10 analysis here!

 

 

 

 

 

Episode 8 – ‘Stray Kat Strut’ OR ‘Sitting Duck Flap’

If you’re yet to read the analysis of the previous episode, then much like Nick said to JL, “maybe you should look it up” here.

An episode without a tribal council would usually mean little to talk about, in this case it actually means we could potentially talk all night. Unfortunately I try to have some sort of life outside of Survivor (otherwise I’d find myself divorced, again), so rather than run through what this shake up means for each of our top eighteen players, I’ll just focus on a few of the major players.

Merge & Purge

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I am very disappointed they didn’t let the tribes come up with their own new names…what the shit?!
So it came as no surprise that the big twist that was coming tonight was the merge from three tribes to two. Once J-LaP announced that the tribes weren’t playing for immunity it was pretty clear that the advantage was the ability to choose your tribe. I don’t want to analyse The Pu’s choices too much as my gut feeling is that no matter how you use that advantage there will be pros and cons. Especially when you are put on the spot, you’re never going to be able to compare and contrast every possible tribe permutation. I guess it seemed smart enough for The Pu to go with a mix of ex-Pu, strength for challenges and someone who would be easy to shaft.

Nick’s shit list

Nick really is feeling bitter about the way he was booted from Vavau. While I’m a big believer in doing whatever you can to get rid of the people that want you gone, I do also believe that if you let your emotions blinker your vision in the game, you can be more easily blindsided. I’m not sure exactly what he was trying to do by pulling JL aside for a chat, but with Nick being Nick, it was never going to end happily. Did make for some fun television though. So what does Nick need to do from here to extend his life in the tribe? Well, as long as he sticks with the pre-merge Pu he should be safe for at least one tribal, if they choose to get rid of JL. I don’t see him having much life past that though. The way things are I suspect that move would see him on the bottom of the remaining eight. If he is to stick around any longer than this he needs to start looking for cracks in the original Pu. Though JL could be a number that he could use to help him switch up the numbers in Pu, I think it is just too dangerous to keep her around, she hates him too much. Given that (we know) Brick doesn’t want Matt long term, and Matt has already shown that he is wary of Flick (though it seems currently that he believes is comfortable with his Angels, more on that later) perhaps he can wriggle into that crack. Regardless which road he takes I am interested to see just what he is going to do to stick around. He will need to shake things up at some stage, and being Nick, I’m sure he will.

Jennah-Louise

Where to for JL though? Wow, I don’t know. Unfortunately she has already burned the Nick bridge. While we don’t know much about their dynamic when they where in Vavau together, I think JL actually had an opportunity here to buddy up to Nick, shift the blame for the Nick vote onto one of the other Vavauans. Of course emotions and pride got in the way of smart play and it didn’t pan out that way. Now she’s between a rock and Rohan’s abs. Maybe she could hook up with Brick? Brooke sounds a little hurt that Matt got his way and they kept Nick instead of Teags, so maybe if JL went to Brick they might let JL take the place that Teags was to have. Though we know that that particular place was only ever going to be temporary, I guess it’s a start for her. I just can’t see what JL’s move is. Have you any ideas?

Matt

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There’s reason we barely saw Charlie in Charlie’s Angels, he was a douche…
Matt, Matt, Matt… We had such high hopes for you. I’m hoping you can still turn it around but every episode it seems you just show us less and less.

“Roll up, roll up and watch the strategy disappear right before your very eyes!”

Dude, please get back with Sammy, actually work him properly rather than just buddy him. Get Lee and Maybe El on your side and break up Brick. For someone who makes a living with misdirection, it seems that you’re not realising that you yourself are being misdirected, by bosom. My Dad used to say “if you’re going to go out you might as well go out smiling” (that’s a lie, my Dad never actually said that, mostly he just said “give that Survivor shit a rest and get into a real sport, like drinking”). That was a cheap shot, both at my Dad and at Matt. We don’t even know, or care, if Matt is a fan of the bosom. What we do know is that it looks like he thinks he has his shit on lock with those women and if that IS what he is thinking, not only is he mistaken, but he doesn’t deserve the title of Survivor. Brick has already fought against him and he knows it, he just seems to have a short memory.

El to the Lee

Of all of the players in The New Pu I would argue that Lee and El are in the best position. All they need to do is sit back and let people come to them and assess what their best move is from there. I hope for their sake that they realise this. If you think I’m wrong about this, please let me know what I’m not seeing in the comments.

Have a Break, have a KateKat.

Kat got game bitches! Finally she has an opportunity to get her claws out and start playing this game. And don’t she just look like the Kat that got the cream? I would argue that Kate is in a very similar situation to Kat, kind of on the outside of the core alliance, with little she could do in her old tribe. Merge holds a lot of potential for KateKat, as long as they can identify those in the new Vavau who also need some direction, they can scoop them up and get some numbers. It would only take for KateKat to scoop Conner, Roh, and maybe Andrew and the game would really be shaken up. Phoebe’s and Craig’s pre-merge position of power would be made more impotent than a quadriplegic eunuch. I think Kat has it in her to do this, I’m less convinced that Kate does though. Kat would need to take the lead in that duo, which looks like it is the case from what we’ve seen so far. Whatever the case, Vavau is primed for a big shake-up.

Craig

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Much like vegetable crudités, this scene was delicious.
Without JL, Craig has a lot of work to do to secure his life in the tribe. I suspect what he’ll try and do is boost his alliance of three (He, Andy and Sue) to one of five by drawing in perhaps Conner and Kate. We know however that that is not going to work as Andy is gunning for him. Does he suspect that? I don’t know. I get the feeling that Andy has done a pretty good job of maintaining Craig’s sense of security. For some reason in my mind’s eye I see him teaming up with Phoebs, they just seem like a good couplet. For now I might just stop speculating on Craig’s move as a lot could depend on what he does with that idol clue. I would suggest that he find that idol ASAP without letting anyone know about the clue, then he can start plotting what will work for him. Like I said, interesting times ahead at Vavau. I need to point out here how happy I was to see a clue in that buffet. As I said in the previous post, that has been sorely lacking in Survivor up until now, and though we didn’t see any players proactively looking for a clue in the banquet (I’m looking at you Andy!), it was still good to see that promise of the Vavau idol reappear in a classic Survivor way.

RohBe

This switch-up is something of a stitch-up for Phoebs. Having lost her core alliance in El, I’m not quite sure what she is left with. At least she knows that Roh has the idol and she can use this information as leverage in a few ways. Firstly, she could bury the hatchet with Roh and she can use the idol vicariously through him to keep herself safe. I’m not sure that Roh is going to go for that, but at the moment it doesn’t seem like he has much else. Or she can try and form an alliance outside of Aganoa, bringing Kristie with her, and throw some shade at Roh from that side, convincing them that they need to flush his idol. There’s a lot of options here for her. None of them seem particularly strong to me. If ever there was a time to work your magic Phoebe and start bringing the social game that we suspect you have in line with your strategic game, and weasel yourself into something with old Vavau now is the time.

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At a loss for words, and allies.
Rohan, you’re in even more dire straits, though at least you have an idol. My thinking is that the best thing for you to do is start looking for where the cracks are in old Vavau and choosing someone to align with, and showing them your idol to solidify trust. Can’t wait to see how this shakes down. Having two hidden immunity idols in one tribe is going to be epic!

Andy

Keep on rocking brother, you’re in a good spot at the moment. Pick your alliance wisely and you’ll take down Craig. Just don’t tip your hand man, or he’ll whip out his idol. Best thing you can do now is show Craig you’re still strong with him so that he’ll either warn you about his idol, or he’ll never see you coming. Like when JL is “wearing it”, sharkskin looks good on you.

Yep, that was a long one. After that, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Check out Episode 9 discussion here!

 

Episode 6 – ‘Exposing Cracks & Licking Rope’ OR ‘Pack Your Ba(g)z’

If you want to catch up on my analysis of last week’s episodes, you can do so here.

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The only non-white colour disappears from Craig’s “eclectic box of crayons”

After the twists and turns of the last three episodes, it was a welcome relief to have an episode free of surprises and audience blindsides. Not only did it make things easier for my fragile, sleep deprived sensitivities, but it also meant that we finally got to see some gameplay in the Vavau tribe, which has been sorely lacking in the series up until this episode.

Conner & Sam

With Conner and Sam deported to Vavau, I thought we’d see some more of the Conner hustle. Him understanding that he is on the wrong side of the numbers, trying desperately to shake things up to keep himself alive in the game. Whether by design or by default, we didn’t see that from him, and that really worked in his favour. As I was watching things play out on camp, and with it initially looking like Conner was going to go, I started thinking whether Conner had made the right move in bringing Sam over. sam-conner.gifI think I understand why he did it, because at the point that he had to make that decision Sam was arguably his closest ally in the game. It just made me think that it may have been prudent to bring over someone that was going to be less of an asset to Vavau than Sam is. Regardless of whether or not it was his best move, I can’t really judge his decision harshly. He was forced to make a snap decision without any forewarning, you’d have to go with your gut in that situation. As I was saying though, I thought it was smart of him not to try and hustle as I suspect that would surely have led to him being voted out tonight. Vavau just got rid of a big strategic player in Nick, they don’t want to replace him with another one in Conner. Had they seen any hint of this in Conner, there’s no doubt he would have been given the boot. Instead, Conner played the ‘please keep me around, I will be an asset and be in your debt’ card. A move which in the past I would have thought had no hope of having any influence whatsoever, but here seems to have actually kept him in the game. It certainly seemed like before he made this speech he would be going home tonight. He sincerely worked those naive little puppy dog eyes and it paid big dividends, with the tribe ultimately sending Baz packing. But was this a good move for the tribe? More on that below. Sam, does nothing, and that works out just fine for him. I’m disappointed in Sam. All we saw was him try and find out what was going on through Kate, arguably the least ‘in the know’ member of old Vavau. Sam, it’s about time we actually started seeing some gameplay from you…

The Great White Shark

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As we’ve suspected all along, Andrew got game! Firstly, we see him casually talking with every member of his tribe today. It’s pretty clear to astute observers looking at these relationships that his social game is strong, something that I was worried about as we haven’t really seen evidence of this before. But we also get some meaningful face time, where we learn that he is a shark and Craig is his prey. While I’m watching this I’m thinking ‘YES!’ we are finally seeing the emergence of his strategy, but at the same time I’m yelling at the screen “NOT YET ANDREW!!!”. There was no way that a move against Craig was going to work this early. Especially when everybody is already feeling conflicted about Barry vs Conner. I think I can see what he was thinking, that there’s some new blood and some new numbers here, maybe he can use those to his advantage. Smartly, he assesses where this move would sit with his current alliance before talking to Conner and Sam. Double smartly and doubly smart, when Sue warns him against voting off Craig, he drops it.

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“You wanna start some shit boy? Didn’t think so…”

I am interested about Sue knowing that he was going to talk Craig, makes me think there have been some conversations there that we’ve not been privy to. There’s obviously a lot more going on in this four than we’ve been led to believe. Perhaps there was more discussion leading up to the Nick vote than we were shown. I guess when you haven’t gone to tribal for two weeks, you can’t help but start running multiple scenarios in your head and this may be evidence that Andrew has started to form an alliance within that core alliance of four. Clearly much smarter than Matt’s effort last week, who showed us he had not even thought of a plan B. Damn I hope Vavau go to tribal tomorrow night so that I can see more of this. I should point out though that I don’t really see why Andrew thinks Craig is a threat. I can see why Nick was, Craig not so much. I guess it will become apparent once we see some more of Craig in action.

The Baz Boot

I intimated above that I wasn’t convinced that getting rid of Barry was right for Vavau. Though I think it was right for Andrew’s purposes, as he now has the option of using the old Pu’s as his new crew for the Craig coup (and my son says I can’t rap, h’yeah right), I really don’t see the reason that you would get rid of Baz, unless you felt that his vote randomiser was trained on you. Even if it is, unless he has people with him, which he doesn’t, then, much like a weasel with a rolly-ball, there is no power behind his chaos. Much better to keep him around until merge, where his vote is actually useful as you know he won’t vote a Vavau. Give me your thoughts below?

What Would Sue Do?

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A more colourful Vavau?

Now that we know that Andrew is starting to position himself to get rid of what he sees as a threat, I do wonder what the rest of the Vavau four is thinking? I come to the conclusion that we haven’t seen enough of them to know. They seem tight enough, and there’s enough of them that they could comfortably make it through to first merge without any of them going home, provided that if they do go to tribal they just boot Conner or Sam. As they are this tight, I suspect that may actually be the best move. Stick with the four until merge. As much as I’d love to see Andrew overthrow Craig, I’m just not sure where it would put him, and Sue if she chooses to go along with it. It makes them much weaker going into the merge. We also know that Sue is seen by Nick, and maybe Tegan, as not trustworthy given what has happened to them, if she meets up with them again and Craig is no longer around, she will be seen as a threat. Maybe that is what Andrew is counting on, that it will look like Sue is masterminding this. As far as Jennah Louise goes, I have no idea where in the four she stands, closer to Craig, or closer to Sue/Andrew. Again, I’m hanging out to see more of Vavau in the episodes to come. That’s enough Vavau for now, how about a quick discussion on the little we saw of Saanapu and Aganoa.

Nick is a Playa!

It was bloody delicious when we saw Tegan talking with Brooke about how Nick had chatted up the two of them (if you missed this tasty morsel, or want to savour it agin, do so here). I said it last post and I’m even more confident now, Nick will not win this game. Great pick up from Tegan to see that Brooke didn’t trust Nick, and she started making moves to distance herself from him. Though I don’t think she could crack the Brick (see previous post), she could certainly be the wasp nest sticking to it while the season is right.

Pulling Weeds and Planting Seeds

 

I’ll finish off with a quick acknowledgement of Kristie tonight. Kristie tonight reminded me very much of Aubry from the most recent season of the US version of Survivor. Started as a neurotic, paranoid and anxious ball of cry, and is now starting to show us that she has had some strategic thoughts. I get it. I think I would be the same in some ways. It could take me a while to get my bearings and get comfortable in a new environment with new people too. I’m so glad that she is still here. The way we saw her subtly start building the relationship with Phoebe was very encouraging. To me she came across as very human and genuine in her conversation with Phoebe, yet she knew that Phoebe was not to be trusted. While I don’t necessarily think that Kristie has moved into a threesome with Phoebe and her El-iance, she certainly showed that she has what it takes to form a strategic pairing with someone, she just needs to find fertile soil in which to plant that seed. I really hope that we see Kristie blossom into something Aubry-esque this season, that would be magnificent.

Until next episode, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

Episode 7 Analysis Here!

Episode 4 – ‘Off The Wall’ or ‘Pete-It’

Have you read my assessment of the previous episode yet? If not, read it here.

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Saanapu loses their oldest gunslinger
I’m sorry, I had a great discussion prepared regarding all that happened tonight. Unfortunately, at one stage J-LaP said the following: “Vavau half-swimming, half-running, like dolphins”. Does J-LaP know what a dolphin is? Has he just seen some fuggin amazing dolphins?

I’m just going to take a few minutes to process that one before I go on…..

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so, you mean, like, a dolphin… with legs?
Okay, I think it’s best if I just try and keep that out of my mind. On with the show.

Tonight saw us finally say goodbye to Pete. I’ve already written at length regarding how I feel about Pistol Pete, and any contestant, pulling themselves from the game so I don’t want to spend much more time discussing this except to say that I wish P.P. all the best.

With Pistol Pete disarmed, Aganoa dodges a bullet

Let’s talk RohBe (Rohan and Phoebe for those who’ve not read yesterday’s post)

Firstly, if you’re out looking for the idol with someone else, my thoughts are that if you do happen to find it, you try and hide the fact that you found it. It looked like Rohan had the opportunity to do that, if so, he should have. Unfortunately for him, he didn’t, and that’s where the problems started.

ROHAN’S RESTRAINT

Phoebe -“you said you would give it to me and you didn’t”. SAY WHAT?!?!

Why did Rohan choose not to give it to Phoebe? Does he not trust her? I hope that is the case as that certainly seems wise at this stage. The way Phoebe acted in the interaction where she confronted Rohan about him keeping the idol (above) just screamed treachery. There is no way I would give her that idol, however he didn’t do a really good job of letting her feel safe that he was keeping it, though I don’t know that there was any way he could have. This being the case what do you do? Well, if you’re Phoebe it seems that you get rid of Rohan. This would be a wise thing to do if you’ve got his trust and he’s not going to play the idol. But if I were Rohan I would not be feeling comfortable around Phoebe at all. While Rohan did not do a good job of making Phoebe feel safe, nor did she he. Interaction above aside, the whole interaction with El, Rohan and Phoebe about getting rid of Kat also seemed to my eyes and ears to be superficial. This should be enough to have Rohan feeling like he needs a new plan.

Roh, Roh, Roh Your Vote…

Any time I see two people on the bottom, or whose heads are both on the chopping block I think to myself, “would it be wise for these two to get together and flip it?”. In this case, I think the answer is a big yes. If Rohan is sharp he’ll realise that he really needs to scramble, Phoebe wants him gone because she can’t feel in control while he has the idol. El will do whatever Phoebe says and Lee has lost trust in him because not only did he lie about finding the clue, he also has not told Lee that he has the idol. Incidentally given that she wants him out it was a sweet move going to Lee and telling him about Roh’s idol. Machiavellian manipulation! Evan take note, interestingly this is the exact move that Evan tried which backfired and shifted El and to a lesser extent, Lee, against him. This is a great example of how it’s all in how you do it and the relationships you’ve already built. Back to Roh and Kat, Roh needs help as he’s on shaky ground. I think Kat can provide that. This is the third time for her that she’s faced elimination and I’m not sure that she fully feels stable with her group of women.

I’d like to think that if Rohan told Kat he wants to flip it, ….. he could save himself.

If Roh has a good enough relationship with her then maybe he could could bring her on side, showing her the idol might be one way to do that. Even if she already knows that he has it, he doesn’t know that she knows that he has it and she would know that (I think that works?).  I’d like to think that if Rohan told Kat he wants to flip it, shows her the idol, and perhaps lets her choose who to flip on, he could save himself. Of course two isn’t enough to flip it (though Roh does have the idol), but I suspect once you’ve got Kat, Kristie would happily follow. Keen observers will note that Kat and Kristie have sat together at every tribal council.

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This, as well as the fact that they seem to have bonded over being on the outs, tells me that they are an easy twofer. If they can get together and use the idol to vote out one of the other three, then that makes them three strong in a group of five. Of course this potentially makes Rohan a sitting duck once he no longer has the idol. In this situation Rohan would want to ensure that it’s Phoebe or El that goes, as well as keep Lee in on this as much as he can, or hope that Aganoa doesn’t go to tribal again before merge.

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The not-so-dynamic duo

Two-Phaced Phoebe

Immunity idol notwithstanding, Phoebe appears to be pulling the strings. If others know and are threatened by this, as Rohan, and even Kat, should be, then Phoebe’s going to need to be really careful about keeping herself safe. Her only way of avoiding a situation like the one described in the above paragraph is to work hard to maintain and reinforce those relationships and alliances she has already built with the others. I warned in my previous post that if she were not careful about the impression she were giving, she might start to be seen as a threat and only thinking of  herself. She made a comment in this episode when talking with El, as she was thinking about all of the possibilities and permutations, where she said something like “I’m just thinking through putting all of the pieces in place that will work for me, and you”, as though El was an afterthought. The best thing for Phoebe to be doing now is rather than saying to her tribe mates and allies “we need to do x” is instead ask “what do you want to do?”. She’s got to get those guys working WITH her, not FOR her or pretty soon they’re going to a) realise that she is a threat, and/or b) start resenting it. If Phoebe didn’t realise this before tribal, it should be completely clear to her now that Kat has had her say about feeling left out. She needs to jump on that straight away and get her feeling safe or else Kat might actually do something that is not in Phoebe’s best interest.

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Phoebe gives Rohan the finger

Kylie, The Pu, and P.P.

Before calling it a night I thought I might at least have a think about where Kylie stands now that her PP is gone. Her best case scenario is Saanapu doesn’t go to tribal before merge and hope that the buffs fall her way when tribes are mixed. Regardless, it occurs to me again as I write this, just how important it is that she just work on establishing and strengthening those friendships and relationships with the rest of the Pu and get herself in a good swing position ready for when/if cracks start to appear in the big four. As far as Conner goes, I don’t see him being that tight with the four and really have no idea where he fits or where his head is at, so I really don’t suggest, though I don’t think it would necessarily be unwise, for Kylie to try and buddy up with Conner. I think that could put her on the outer even more. What are your thoughts? Leave a comment below.

Until next episode, I got nothing for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 5 analysis here!