Episode 25 – ‘T Intersection’ OR ‘Pitt, Stop’

If you’re struggling to understand Plan B, perhaps reading the previous analysis will help you decide what’s best for you.

12EE77BD-AE9A-415D-BE6C-EA1D70DCF779
For perhaps the first time ever, I agree with T-Bone

I’m going to do my very best here to understand why T-Bone took the turn that she did tonight, and really try to ignore my Olympic feelings. It’s a hard thing to do. It’s no secret that I don’t like Jerkicho’s or T-Bone’s games at all, and that I find their characters repellent. Based on what we see on-screen I suspect that if I were playing with them they would really rub me the wrong way. That being said, they made it into the game, I didn’t. I’ve always said this analysis is about the game and not about the show, so it’s only fair of me that I do my best to thoroughly and genuinely analyse their game tonight, and not their person. Let’s start with Jerkicho.

Jericho Spoke in Class Today

A778AA89-EB70-4A1C-B887-7D9D9FCC7CCD
Jerkicho starts wrapping T-Bone around his little finger

I don’t think anyone can begrudge the effort and tenacity shown by Jerkicho tonight. On tonight’s performance alone, it would be a challenge to argue that he’s not most deserving of the three remaining. Good on him for realising that it was his name that was likely to be written down the most (and bad on Peter, but more on that later). Once he suspected that he was on the chopping block he needed to do something. And something he most certainly did do. All he needed was to have one person not vote for him and he knew that one person wasn’t going to be Peter. I could critique his choice to approach Michelle first. I would have thought that T_bone would be the easiest to sway, not only because of who she is but also due to their relationship as the Asaga four. I guess when your back is against the wall you take the first chance you can get. Ideally, when you’re in Jericho’s position, you’d want to have Tara vote Michelle and Michelle vote Tara, and then you could choose who you want voted out. Taken Peter would vote Jerkicho, then Jerkicho would send home whoever he would like in a 2-1-1 split. That’s the ideal situation if you’re Jerkicho. Obviously, Michelle was too touchy to be influenced that way. I’ll have to rewatch but I did not get the feeling on the first watch that there was any hint of bullying or threat in Jerkicho’s approach to Michelle. Regardless, Michelle took it that way, and in fact that was all that J needed. He was able to leverage her instability and give T-Bone another option.
Beyond the above, his performance at tribal was spot on. Again, if this is the potentially the last chance you’re going to get to address the jury, then take it for all it’s worth. He played up his against the wall, underdog status at this tribal. And the jury seemed impressed. I don’t recall there being anything in his speech though that was aimed at convincing T-Bone to vote with him. Again, hopefully a rewatch can clarify this. So why then did T-Bone vote the way she did?

Shit Stirrer

9F664D82-9A3A-4971-A89F-F2767EA9DA83
T-Bone attempts a Shaggy style ‘it wasn’t me’ before realising that that couldn’t possibly hold up 

Some people just want to watch the world burn, and some people just want to watch the fire challenge burn. T-Bone is both of those people. In a game where she hasn’t really made any positive gutsy moves, at least she now has one thing that she can point to in her resume (should she be required to provide it). Unfortunately for her, this very move actually strengthens Jerkicho’s resume (should he get there). So if her thinking was that by backing Jerkicho she’s more likely to get to the end, then, it has actually made her more likely to lose against him (in my opinion). If I was sitting there in that particular tribal council listening to Jerkicho tell the tribe, J-LaP and the jury what he was telling them, and perhaps more importantly, how well he was telling them, I would be thinking, “I don’t want to go up against this guy in the finale”. If she had this level of awareness she would understand that there is no way that she would beat Jerkicho in a final two. While I agree that her best bet at making it to final two would be to do what she did, and oust Michelle (not that she did it, Jerkicho did, but she gave him the ability to), unfortunately for her, this move makes it less likely for her to win. So ultimately, I have to say that this is a bad move. I won’t make argument again as to the merits, or otherwise, of the ‘to be the best, beat the best’ argument. I’ve done that plenty in these analyses. Really her only chance to win now, is to win immunity and bring Peter to the end. Then she better hope she can make like Donald Trump, and have the best words the jury’s heard her utter thus far (worked for Kristie) and hope that Peter can’t articulate an argument as to why he should win.

Awfully Civilised Scrambling

AF10208A-567C-40A9-B00B-7EA7D232EDE0
That you might end up in an awkward conversation should be the least of your worries at this point in the game…

Well done Peter on a much needed immunity win. Not so well done on how he played Jerkicho tonight. His conversation with Jerkicho was a) not at all believable in his body language, and b) not at all believable in the content. Jerkicho was right to think that it all seemed too easy. Starting the conversation with, “I think it should be Tara” was never going to be believable in my opinion. As I’ve said so many times this season, and the previous, if you want to gain someone’s trust, don’t tell them what to do, ask their opinion. It seems that maybe Peter had his first taste of power. And with this sweet elixir coursing through his system, he perhaps forgot that these conversations still required nuance, savvy, and shrewdness. On top of that, well did he even know that there was unrest among the remaining three? If he didn’t, why the hell not? If he did, what did he do to stabilise the situation? In fact both he and Michelle need to be called out about their lack of gusto in at tribal council.

‘Don’t let Jerkicho tell you what to do, Jerkicho is not best for your game’

In the face of Jerkicho’s impassioned and articulate argument, they needed to do more to argue their case, and argue it directly. It should have been clear to Peter by now that that Jerkicho knew the votes were headed his way. At this point there is no need to dance around and play games. Both Peter and Michelle needed to stand up and say they are voting Jerkicho, and they are voting Jerkicho because he’s the strongest, and if he goes to the end he will win. It is time to get him out now. Of course, T-Bone being T-Bone there’s every possibility that this could backfire, and she could be the one saying that she’s being bullied into voting a particular way. So if one were to do so, one would have to be careful. Perhaps Michelle’s line to the rest of her tribe mates encouraging them to play their own game was overly cautious. That line might have worked if the ‘get rid of the biggest threat to YOUR end-game’ argument had already been framed. The other option for the two of them, particularly Michelle was to push the bully point harder. Knowing just how much T-Bone hates being told what to do, Michelle could have made it clear to T-Bone that nobody should be bullied, and that Jerkicho’s performance at tribal and pre-tribal was bullying. That may have made it a little harder for T-Bone to vote the way she did. And if it didn’t work, it was at least worth a shot. Perhaps this was what Michelle was alluding to in her ‘play your own game, vote your own way’ line. Unfortunately it was too subtle for Tara to understand that the subtext was (or should have been), ‘Don’t let Jerkicho tell you what to do, Jerkicho is not best for your game’.

I acknowledge that it’s easy for me to sit here in the rocking chair and with the gift of hindsight wax academic about what they should have done. I know it is much, much more difficult in the heat of the moment to frame your argument perfectly, and to effectively counter the arguments of your opponents. Hopefully one day I’ll get the chance to put my money where my mouth is.

5C141309-8881-4668-AB24-3967D4BA695D
“Hey Mick, want to stick your fingers in my lolly jar?”

Before I go I’ll quickly mention the family visit. While it had me crying as it usually does, the fact that it wasn’t tied to any sort of challenge completely devalued it for me. Is this another Survivor first? Let me know what you think in the comments. Until the finale, I’ve got nothing else for you, head back to camp.


– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 24 – “Getting Pegged” OR “My T-Bone is the Centrefold”

You don’t have to read minds to know how we got to this point, check out the previous episode’s analysis here!

D1C43902-B769-4310-BD9A-A3FCB45A1DDA
#toteshomo

Well that was a waste of an hour of my life. Drop Your Buffs! has always been about the game of Survivor and not the show, so I’ll try not to spend too much time discussing the banality of this episode, but unfortunately there’ll be some things I just can’t avoid. Anyway, let’s make like Peter and break (it) down.

T Pain

782AE2B8-0439-4B79-907D-EC7A45FD54DC
If you think you’re getting anywhere near $500K for an appearance in a ‘dirty magazine’ Tara, I’ve got some bad news for you….

The above may seem a little harsh against Pete, but the truth is listening to Pete talk about his family was the only thing that made me feel anything this episode. I’m a sucker for the family stuff, so it didn’t take me long to get some sympathetic tears flowing. Regardless, the first 15 minutes was all ‘we’ve come so far’. It was a full 15 minutes (without ad break) of uninspired, hackneyed platitudes. That’s a quarter (more than when you factor in ads) of the episode listening to our remaining four essentially say the same thing over and over. How hard it has been to get this far, how they’re so proud of themselves and excited by the prospect of a one in four shot to win $500K. I had to laugh when T-Bone told us that she gave it her all. How many times this season did she tell us she was giving up? Give me a break. Survivor has NEVER been this boring before, the first quarter added NOTHING to the episode, the series, or the individuals’ character arcs. If US Survivor has never served up anything this insipid and vapid, what makes production think that it will work for Australia? Ugh.

Crackin’ Coconuts

A3E769B0-3404-467F-8D6B-D148AADB9745
I don’t have a witty (or otherwise) caption for this, it’s just a beautiful shot.

The other bookend to this episode was 15 minutes of our flavourless foursome mostly telling us how, to quote Jerkicho, “the ultimate decision”, could mean the difference between $550K and nothing. Really? I’m pretty daft so you better have each of those players plus J-LaP reiterate that over and over again or there’s a possibility I might not comprehend the gravity of the advantage. This was literal face-palm television.

So when you factor in the challenge itself (which I quite enjoyed) was close to another 15 minutes, that leaves only 15 minutes of actual ‘gameplay’. This gameplay consisted of Jerkicho putting the jury into two groups, the ‘I don’t knows’, and the ‘they’re fines’. Apparently Tessa is the only one who doesn’t fall into either of these groups because “I don’t know if she respects gameplay or…”. Doesn’t the “I don’t know” part of that sentence put her into the ‘I don’t know’ group?! Fark me, this was like pulling teeth. Barely watchable. That’s enough episode bashing for now, let’s talk gameplay.

Cleaning the Trash Out of the Room

9B52CDE1-3236-44A9-89B6-CC9C2F668A37
When you ask Jericho about the mile high club…

The only strategy to chew on tonight was all about which jury member you vote out. And that particular morsel is wafer thin. Of course, you want to vote out the one who is unlikely to vote for you, and who is likely the most vocal about it. I liked that he asked the rest of the players for their opinions. The more info you’ve got on your opponent’s motivations and opinions on how the jury will vote the better. To not do so when given the opportunity would leave you with a myopic view of the opinions of the jury. Of course, they’re going to try and influence you, but there’s valuable info to glean from that. Incidentally did I miss something in the unveiling of the advantage? I didn’t know he could ask questions of the jury until we got to tribal council. I assume he was aware of that some time before council started. I can’t argue against his choice of questions and to whom he asked them. Having never seen this situation before it’s not something I’ve ever pondered. I understand this is the first time ever in US and Aus Survivor history that the remaining players have been able to communicate with the jury prior to the final tribal (fill me in if I’m mistaken). I guess that’s kind of a big deal. I particularly liked the question he asked Anneliese, concerning what might make her sway her mind in a final tribal speech. Nice one. It gives Jerkicho something to consider when developing the speech. Unfortunately, it gives his opponents the same info, but I’d prefer to have the info and know that my opponents did too, than not have the info and be wondering if I’m barking up the wrong tree. One thing I wonder about his decision to vote out Tessa (so fuggin sad to see her go, that’s when I REALLY REALLY cried, would have loved to see her exit interview), is would he have kept her had she picked Michelle as the weakest? I suspect he intends to take Michelle to the end if he can help it, so maybe that’s why he chose Tessa to go. He couldn’t trust that she wouldn’t vote for Michelle. I hope that we find out the specific motivations behind his questions when his game finishes, because I’m certainly intrigued. We may even find out at the finale. I’d like to think that if he makes it to the end, he would leverage this part of his game into his story. Explaining what he did with his opportunity, and how it helped him.

Sweetening up the Competition

D6BF7C36-7733-4578-A123-33ADEC209F5F
Be careful Michelle, you’ll never guess what Happened to the last person T-Bone ‘let into her sugary  bucket’ 

Before I go, could it be argued that T-Bone’s offer of lollies to Michelle is strategic gameplay? Well in T-Bone’s mind it was. I guess at this point she’s got nothing to lose. If it works, great. Another tool in the tool bag, in more ways than one. If not, whatevs. Hopefully we’ll have more to discuss tomorrow, if the preview is anything to go by, with family visits on the agenda, it looks like it will be another tears one. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 23 – ‘Up All Night To Get Locky’ OR ‘Daft Punk Dumb Jock’

If you need a security blanket before diving into this episode’s analysis, check out the analysis of the previous episode here!

905BFA59-331D-4647-AF0A-3CDD439895F4
Care to provide some evidence for that claim….

Alright Featherheads, I’m going to have to make this short and sweet (Like AK’s reign). I’m sick as a mofo and have to crawl into bed. But I’m a committed sick mofo, so let’s celebrate the departure of everybody’s least loved Alien vs Predator Guy (what the heck does that mean Jerkicho?) with brief analysis of a pretty straightforward episode.

Harder, Better, 2 Seconds Slower, Stronger

7AE82955-596F-4868-A3A3-DB5D89BA94F6
….that’s a more accurate claim.

Thanks Locky for telling everyone 50 times that you were only beaten by two seconds. Michelle had literally just won her first immunity challenge so the time was perfect to remind everyone how awesome you are and that it is all about you. I have to give some credit where it is due. He was sharp enough to pick up the idol clue and fabric scrap that Anneliese dropped. I don’t know why it took him at least ten days to do anything with it. Surely in that ten days he could try and fashion an idol out of it. Sure, everybody knows by now just what an idol looks like, they’re quite distinctive this season, so I’ll concede that the task is harder than it sounds. More credit to the effort he put in scrambling tonight. Though, I would imagine that the best way to get T-Bone back on side would not be to call her a flipper and start an argument with her and tell her she did the wrong thing. If he had to beg, plead, for her sympathy, he should have tried, if the game meant so much to he (not a typo…sing it). The big dill. But of course Locky’s ego wouldn’t allow him to talk to her any other way. So that stuff aside, I guess he really tried using just about everything he had in him. The question is, is there more he could have done this episode that might have saved himself, short of winning immunity again. I can’t think of anything. He tried different tactics for different players, and even had Michelle believing that he saw her as a threat. I really don’t see anything else he could have done. Let me know if there’s anything you think of below.

Idol Chatter

0E12C5A4-467C-4DB1-B2CF-3A8765362510
“A la peanut butter sandwiches!!” Locky conjures an idol.

I would like to say that I’m shocked that MT believed he had an idol, but I’m not. Peter seemed to be the only one smart enough to request that he show it. His line about the power of the idol and the move is only powerful if you don’t show it being one of the most interesting bullshit excuses I’ve ever heard on Survivor. Particularly if you factor in that this was the last tribal an idol could be played, so if he really had it he had nothing to lose. If you’ve really got an idol why would you scramble so much. As Phoebe and Kristie showed last season, if you’ve got an idol, the play here is to let everyone think that you’re resigned to going home, then spring the idol at tribal. That he shared he had an idol was all the proof needed that he didn’t have an idol. Though I don’t disagree with Michelle’s thinking in voting Peter. I’ll also point out how impressed I was that T-Bone showed actual competency and presence of mind in noting Locky’s reaction to losing the challenge. Well done T-Bone.

Holden Hope

F89EE98E-3F2B-4A28-AEF5-173798DE6AA9
Oh. What a feeling…

Credit to Michelle for her immunity win. If you had asked me a month ago if I could see myself yelling “GO MICHELLE, GO” at the tv, I would have choked on my papaya. And yet, there I was…
I understand her thinking that by voting against Pete she had an ally in Locky if he really did have an idol, but it shouldn’t have gotten to that. She should have given him an ultimatum, “show me your idol, and I’ll vote with you”. She didn’t seem to do that. Had she done so I’d like to think there is no way that Locky could convince her that he had it. But, he did convince here that he thought she was a threat, so I guess it’s not outside of the realm of possibilities. This is Michelle we’re talking about. What’s her plan now? Nothing has changed for my final four from what I suggested last analysis. Buddy up and be ostensibly two strong, then form a secret alliance with one person of the remaining two and go to the end together. This holds for each of the remaining four. And of course, look for some advantage and try like hell to win immunity. I imagine there is an advantage or twist yet to come. Last season there were 26 episodes. If we’re to have 26 episodes again this season, that means there’s an episode without an eviction of a player on the horizon. Given that Channel Ten has heavily promoted Wake In Fright as airing at 8:30 this Sunday, I’d say that any such twist will be next episode.

Human After All?

4DBDF689-D8F3-4630-BB5E-C11A62711B79
And he don’t mean Greatest Of All Time… (or God Of All Texas)

The only other thing of note to mention this episode is how much the term ‘goat’ was thrown around, and how much our players, Peter particularly, distanced themselves from that descriptor. I was surprised that people wanted to point out how well they had played the game at this point in the game. J-LaP made a good point, one that I have made in the past, and that is that the goat can be seen as a threat because they could take one of the coveted final spots. I don’t believe that holds true this late in the game and with a final four comprised solely of goats. If you believe you’ve got a solid resume to present at final tribal council, present it at final tribal council. Don’t present it here and have people think you could beat them. It also allows them to develop counterpoints to your argument should they face you at final tribal. So needless to say I thought it was foolish of Peter to do that tonight. I understand it though. Locky had changed the conversation. Proposing the old, “if you want to be the best, beat the best” argument. An argument I have never agreed with. My counter-argument being, if you think someone (like Locky) is the best competition, then you’ve already beaten them by voting them out when you did (like tonight). If you disagree, I’d love to hear arguments as to why you might think that being labelled a goat (or sheep) tonight would be a baaaad thing (yes, that just happened. I told you I was sick).

So that’s all I’ve got for tonight. Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 20 – ‘Michelle Shocked’ OR ‘Once Bitten, Twice ‘Chelle’

CB6A55F2-F028-4541-8B4A-7D6B3166D62E
I’ve easily watched this at least a hundred times since it aired…

Where to start on tonight’s episode? When the highlight of the episode is charades you know there’s not too much strategy to talk about. A snack pack of popcorn chicken is meatier than this episode. Let’s not get in a flap about it though, I fuggin LOVED the charades. I don’t know that I’ve ever laughed so hard at reality television before. Has T-Bone ever seen an octopus or a moth? Well done Channel Ten/Endemol Shine. You’ve really brought your A game to the challenges this season. Although I do question the immunity challenge in this episode. Can anyone tell me if we’ve ever seen this type of head to head tournament for individual immunity before? I don’t like it. It’s much more suited to reward or tribal immunity. Anyway, that’s enough talk about Survivor the show, let’s talk about Survivor the game.

Sarah. Sarah. No Time is a Good Time for Goodbyes

DAB1A218-CFF7-4BEE-8139-7E849ED681C9
Actual footage of a cat about to drown.

This result is completely down to Sarah’s social game. Sarah told everyone this episode not to be emotional, but emotional intelligence is exactly what she needed tonight. I’m not suggesting that Sarah is a cold person in general. I don’t know if the stress and the game is getting to her. But a bucket of nuggets could see that Michelle needed more engagement than what Sarah gave her. I don’t want to get into the previous episode too much or I’ll be writing until dawn, but had I posted analysis last night, I would have agreed with Luke’s assessment not to tell Michelle what was happening regarding the Tessa vote. That agreement though would have come with caveats. That either she is told directly before, or at, tribal council, or failing that, that she is bought back into the fold ASAP post tribal council. Now Sarah told us during tribal that she did try talking to Michelle after the decision. The conversation that we did see (THE NEXT DAY!) between Michelle and Sarah was as awkward as the joke T-Bone tried to tell before the reward challenge.

AE39560C-B688-431B-A202-7098DF08A897
The reward may have been for KFC, but this was no Zinger…

The conversation basically went the way of Michelle telling her alliance that she felt hurt and betrayed and couldn’t trust them further. To which Sarah responded by coldly trying to tell Michelle why she was wrong, and why this is better for her. You can’t logic someone’s emotions away, it doesn’t work. The only way to change emotion is to connect emotionally. Then once Michelle feels heard to understood, then she can listen to the logic of your plan. Hell, you don’t even need to try and convince her of the logic or the game plan. You need her as a number, let her feel that you’ll do whatever she wants on the next vote. Once it was clear to everyone that Michelle was unhappy and likely to flip, it was game over for Sarah, there was little she could do, the numbers became unassailable. If there was any sentiment in Samatau that they may be willing to vote Michelle, Sarah did not do her best to bolster it. She actually never made a case that it should be Michelle. I guess during tribal she was still trying to hide from Michelle that her name was on the chopping block, but what she should have been doing is undermining Michelle and detailing how unpredictable and emotional she is, and therefore a liability in this game. To be honest though, I don’t think it would have helped. At this stage of the game people will always take out a threat before they take out an easy vote. Particulalry if they can have that easy vote vote with them in future tribals. Tessa made a well-articulated point in the previous tribal. That is that it’s important to understand what is good for your opponents game and what is in their best interests. It seems Sarah completely missed that. Luke and Jerkicho knew it, making it a seven vote landslide against Sarah. The other option she has once she knows her name is on the chopping block (and it seemed pretty clear to her it was) is to present an even juicier target than Michelle or herself, Ziggy. You don’t even need Michelle for that, all you need is Luke, Jerkicho, Tara, and Peter. That could have been worth a shot. Perhaps knowing that Michelle was gunning for her actually did affect her emotionally, and did not allow her to see that there were other moves ahead than retaliating against Michelle.

Big Bash Luke

7BF76094-E775-40E5-9736-2602D4B45A3D
GIF captioner got it wrong, what he actually sang was “I know Asaga will get on your nerves”, and he was singing to Michelle…

Luke did somewhat better than Sarah in placating Michelle. Firstly he approached her directly after tribal. During this interaction, unlike Sarah, he engaged with her emotionally, looked her in the eye. It looked like he apologised. And for his part during the above in tent conversation with his alliance, he literally lay down, and let Sarah take the heat. He and Jerkicho were also smart enough to realise that there was no changing her mind, and that voting against her would only damage the relationship they need with her, particularly now that Sarah is gone. So what can they do now? I don’t know that I’ve discussed this before but often thought it; Luke’s strategy seems to be take down whoever he sees as the biggest threat whenever he can. I can’t really argue with that strategy, he’s made it this far, and could actually win the game with it. And I hate to say it, but of the seven players we now have remaining, he’s probably most deserving. Just a smidge above Ziggy. Oh gee that’s a sad thought, considering the caliber of some of the players we started with. Anyway, my point is that I don’t think he considers the ramifications of his actions beyond the immediate. This was clear for the Tessa vote. While I’m sure he sees Sarah as an eventual threat, he needed her for at least one more vote. So I am surprised he didn’t try harder to get the vote off her and try and shift it toward Ziggy as suggested above. I guess it was too late to put in all the work required to pull that off. Anyway, Luke’s and Jerkicho’s best bet now is with both Michelle and Peter in the game, move on Locky and Ziggy. They need to be split, now. Admittedly, if Locky and Ziggy are still around two more votes then they’ll likely turn on each other (again in Ziggy’s case). They can’t wait for this to happen, because I’ve no doubt that Luke and Jerkicho are in Locky’s and Ziggy’s sights. Speaking of Ziggy, how ‘bout that idol play?

Gettin’ Ziggy With(out) It

C00C21EA-A83E-4751-B273-50F9D9EF9B22
Whatever KFC paid to have their products on Survivor, it was worth it for this GIF… K-Fucking Ching

I don’t blame her at all for playing her immunity idol. I think it’s more indicative of her paranoia than it is of any poor game-awareness. Things are at fever pitch, there’s blindside’s coming left, right and centre. While you wouldn’t say that the previous tribal went against her, she was just as blind-sided by it as Tessa was. I’d be jumpy too. Of course she’d be better off keeping it, but I’d much rather look like a fool playing it when I didn’t need to and staying in the game, than not playing it when I had it and being booted out. She’s a target with or without it. Without the safety buffer it affords her though, she really needs a friend. Hello Peter! We really are in a situation where we have power players, and their goats. Locky has Tara (for now). Locky and Jerkicho have Michelle. Peter is a goat without a home. Ziggy can be that home. From there it’s a matter of splitting Luke and Jerkicho, then taking out Locky. Easier said than done, but certainly easier if you have Peter in your pocket. This may not suit Peter though.

Playing it for Himself

66E7EFCD-AE0E-448B-A1BC-0DA4052FA65A
Totes homo

I loved Peter telling Ziggy to play the idol for Michelle. If he was sincere, it does suggest that his maths is not great. Either he suspects that Locky or Tara were voting against Michelle (unlikely), or he played it for the reason I hope he played it for, to make Michelle believe that he is with her. There are very few people he can beat in a tribal council, so he needs to work with Tara and Michelle. As I did last year at around this point, I’ll run through these numbers in more detail in the next post. Before I go though…

“I’m not being emotional, I’m just hurt and pissed off and disappointed”

IMG_2654
….and now we’ve seen The Hangover 4…

Oh Michelle. This is terrible play. She really is blinded by her emotions. Yes, she was left out of a big decision, but now she has one less ally. It’s not all bad though. She hasn’t completely burned her bridges with Luke and Jerkicho. And while Locky and Ziggy will drop her without a second thought once they feel she’s no longer useful, Peter is still an option for her. I can’t even begin to think where T-Bone sits in all this though. I have no idea what her game plan is other than to do whatever Locky says, and if we are to believe the preview for the next episode, then it seems she won’t be doing that much longer anyway. If we believe the preview.

0E12C5A4-467C-4DB1-B2CF-3A8765362510
🎵Let me roll with your body baby, make you feel hot🎵

I think that’s going to have to do for this post. I know I haven’t talked much about Locky, but that’s mostly just because I couldn’t think of a Locky/Loggy pun funny enough to be worthy of inclusion. Perhaps I need to ask T-Bone for some tips. Hopefully Locky is still about after the next episode so that I can spend some time contemplating the future of his game. Until then, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

809DA8BC-FCF0-47AC-B1ED-566838F3B30F
OK, just one more… DO DO DO The Funky Gibbon

Episode 18 – ‘Won’t Get Fooled Again’ OR ‘Bubbly O’Riley’*

Consensus is never the real fact, and Survivor ain’t Survivor unless you’re up to date with Drop Your Buffs! Check out last night’s analysis here.

IMG_2617
Clinking the ‘air’ champagne glasses…

As a blogger I hate it when Survivor goes to three nights a week. Damn Channel Ten, give a man a chance to sleep. And there was so much going on tonight that I’m sure this will be a long one. But these last two episodes have made it worth it. Two very, very entertaining episodes. Not only were they choc full of meaty strategy, they were full of laugh out loud moments. Particularly when Jerkicho is involved. It’s true, I love to hate him. It will be sad to see him go. Though I expect not as sad as seeing Zenry go tonight.

Behind Blue Eyes

IMG_2619
Dog finally goes downward

All good things come to an end. Certainly our mate has made some genius moves, but has also made some questionable ones. What did Zenry do wrong tonight? Well I would argue that he did nothing wrong this episode. Tonight he was just outplayed, by a tribe working in unison to deceive and not tip their hand. However the roots of this downfall arguably lay in his telling Anneliese he had an idol way back when he moved to Samatau. At the time I thought this was not smart. That it was a late night moment of weakness. I’ve always said that it can be wise to share an idol with someone if you want to solidify a bond. But telling Anneliese this, seemingly in an attempt just to get anyone and everyone on his side, I thought was risky. And then moving against her after having given her this information was not wise. If you’re going to share that information with someone to form a bond, then keep your bond. Only do it if it’s someone that you want to play with long-term, and I don’t think that he had that in mind when he told Anneliese.

IMG_2629
Stoking the fire while fanning the flames..

I was shocked to hear that Michelle knew of his idol and wondered if I’d missed something. Then when it was revealed that Anneliese had told Sarah, the penny dropped. When did that happen? Were we the audience aware of this already? Please fill me in below if that’s the case. It also means that Sarah told Michelle. When did THAT happen?!?! Have there been conversations that I have totally missed?!?! Or is Channel Ten just keeping some important conversations from us to make the game more surprising for viewers, and commentators like me, later? If that’s the case, I’m not sure I like it. Survivor has never kept from us who had the idols and who knew (other than episode 2 this season, where it was kind of the point of the episode, and an anti-climax). Regardless, that Sarah knew and told Michelle reveals so much. At merge we did not know the old Asaga dynamic at all, and as the Two previous episodes have focused on Samatau and the big players, I wasn’t sure where Luke, Jerkicho, Michelle, and Sarah stood and what their game plan was (or is it just that I’m obtuse?). We now know that they are working together, for the moment. And that the Cookie Alliance was not a voting block, or at least not with Zenry. Clearly Sarah, Luke, and Jerkicho are strong right now. And Sarah had a killer night tonight.

Who Are You?

IMG_2615
Sarah, Michelle, Fella (see what I did there?)

That Sarah could trick Zenry into thinking that she was pissed about losing reward (her line “an act to create visible distance between Tess and myself” is pure Survivor poetry), and then play it so cool at tribal, reinforcing to Zenry that she will vote the easy option… Masterclass! If modeling falls through for Sarah, she should give acting a shot. Her manipulation of Jerkicho was delicious. Sweeter than jam on a cookie, chased with champagne.
Incidentally I did really love the imagery of seeing Zenry stoke the fire while he was trying to inflame Sarah’s bitterness of being left out of the Champagne reward.
I hate to say this because it looks like I’m just floating from favourite to favourite here, and while we haven’t seen her be quite this tactical and manipulative before, I think we always suspected she had it in her, and is now in a great position. Especially as it doesn’t at all look like this was her move. To others it looks like this move was orchestrated by Luke, Tess, and Michelle. If she makes it to final tribal it would behoove her to convince the jury that she was behind the move to get Zenry out. But for now she can let everyone think that it was the others. Stay under the radar, and let the threats take the heat. If she really has Michelle in her pocket she needs to keep her there, because Luke and Jerkicho aren’t going to stick with Sarah once their backs are against the wall. If she can also cultivate a relationship with T-Bone, I think she will come in useful for Sarah in the future. I have been high on Sarah here, but I need to give Tess some credit too.

(Pin)Ball Wizard

IMG_2622
I was hoping the jam on those breakfast eclairs brought back talk of #jamgate

Great job winning immunity Tessa. I’m not even going to make a ball joke. Great job with your pick for reward companion. You said it yourself, Michelle is an emotional voter. If you didn’t know that before the previous episode, I’m glad that you’ve learnt that now. More on the auction later, I will quickly say now how hard it is under pressure to pick a reward companion. She couldn’t have chosen much better tonight. I wonder if that was her plan once the auction started. Where to for Tess now? Great question. In some ways I think she was lucky tonight that the old Asaga alliance had the same target she did. I don’t think she’ll be so lucky in future. What to do though with this knowledge that old Asaga want the big players out? Two options; continue to work with old Asaga to take them out of the game buying you at least two tribals, or work with Ziggy and Locky to keep them around as a shield. Which of these is better for Tess long term? At the moment my head is saying Ziggy needs to go sooner rather than later. With an immunity idol under her belt (is Locky the only other one that knows this?), and being stronger and more likeable than Locky, she is a way bigger threat. I would be doing whatever I could to get her out of the game as soon as possible. For Tessa she needs to find a way to do it that doesn’t perpetuate the idea in Locky that Tessa is gunning for them. I suggest use Michelle again. Michelle already mentioned during champagne alliance night that Locky was second on her list. Just nudge her a little, and stay out of the firing line. If she gets the chance to do so surreptitiously she should try and convince Locky that she is with him. Vote with him two or three tribals from now to remove Sarah or Luke, then flip back to work with Jerkicho and Michelle to get through to the end. Though I can’t see either Jerkicho or Michelle winning this game, I do wonder what they should be doing to get as far as they can.

Gimme Shelter (I know, it’s not The Who, but it’s close, and fits our episode)

IMG_2654
Is it wrong to get someone drunk on Survivor to find out who has the idol? 

I mentioned above that Michelle will likely be influenced by Tessa and gun for Locky now. Is that the right move for her though? If Locky were smart he’d do the same as Tess and try and take her under his wing. She’s already shown him that she will follow him (the Anneliese vote) if she feels lost. So if we suppose that Locky and Tess are her two options, which way is best for her? I feel like this requires more thinking than I have in me tonight. Especially if we throw Sarah into the mix. My first instinct is that both Sarah and Tess will see her value as a goat and are more likely to use her to get to the end and potentially take her with them. Locky on the other hand is too tight with Ziggy, and much more likely to throw Michelle under the balls when it suits him, preferring to take T-Bone to the end. So Michelle should go with both Tess and Sarah until they target one another, and reassess then.

The Kid’s All Right (well, not really but I’m running out of The Who songs here)

IMG_2621
🎵…but my mum won’t admit it…🎵 (some The Who cuts are deeper than others)

I’ve said in previous posts that Jerkicho won’t win. I stand by that. There’s still value in considering his options though. Sticking with Luke seems a no-brainer, I see no reason at this stage to suggest turning on that alliance. If I know Jerkicho (and I don’t) I think he’ll actually do just that pretty soon. I do suggest doing it before the end as he’ll never beat him at final tribal. Jerkicho’s only bet to win is to go against Tara or Michelle (or maybe even Peter) at final tribal. His only way to get there is to stay strong with Luke. Take out Ziggy ASAP. Then work towards getting Tess or Pete out, then move against Sarah before she tries to split you and Luke up. From there you need to get the lay of the land with where Locky is and where Tess or Pete is, and move whichever way is going to get yourself and Luke closer to a final four with Tara and Michelle. This is the plan for Luke too, however Luke isn’t quite as limited as to who he can beat in a final two and therefore doesn’t have quite as narrow a path to the end.

My Generation

 

IMG_2653
Locky can’t explain…

This game seems to be changing so much from episode to episode. Last episode it looked that Locky and Ziggy were in a powerful position. At that point we didn’t know that old Asaga were so tight. We know better now and, it’s clear that Locky and Ziggy are now in a sticky situation. I suggest they have two options from here; attempt to align with Pete and Tess (and T-Bone) giving them the numbers to take out old Asaga, or try and convince old Asaga that Tess is a bigger threat than they are. Both of these options will only get them so far and the reality is that the rest of the tribe will want to split the two of them up. I think they should stick together if they continue to win immunity, after that the best bet is for each of them to try and remove the other the first chance they get. Neither will take the other to the final two, and either of them is a shot to win the final immunity challenge, so it’s too risky to take the other even to the final three.

Sub-sti-tute! My Cash For Food

IMG_2652
Tears. Tears every single time. 

I love Auction and this is one of the most fun, and most perplexing, I’ve witnessed. Firstly, the twist. Great! Provided a lot of fun watching Luke take all that food, and other advantage. Also has the effect of motivating future players to bid early rather than hold on to their cash waiting for idols/advantages/home and family contact. Speaking of home contact, I was surprised that we had this so soon after letters from home, but I wasn’t complaining. It had me bawling as usual. I watched the episode twice and was sobbing both times. I suspect that if I ever get to play the game, as much as I think I’d want to stay strong and hold out bidding until an advantage or idol clue or something comes up (depending on how comfortable I feel), I just know that the second a phone call is mentioned I couldn’t help myself. I would be all in. All chips on the table. What I do wonder is which is the better advantage; the challenge advantage, or the reward meal/night with guests? Both options have pros and cons. I really am bum-puzzled about which is the more beneficial. What would you pick and why? Let me know in the comments. I was surprised no one seemed to be looking for idols or clues on their night away. I thought for sure there’d be at least a clue there after two were played the night before. This time last year in the same reward there was no idol or clue so that seems to be a pattern for us here in Australia.

What Zenry did was part of the game. What Jerkicho did here was just spiteful and malicious.

I was perplexed by those who players who didn’t bid on food. I expected they were therefore waiting for advantage or home/family contact. Why did they not bid as high as they could out of the gate when those things came up? Maybe they were not that familiar with how the auction worked. I’m not sure how I feel about the drawing rocks solution to multiple max bids. Usually it’s first in with a max bid gets the spoils. That one person could lose all their money and not get anything, even when they knew what they were bidding on, seems unfair on the face of it. I’ll let my thinking on this gestate for a little before I make up my mind though. What are your thoughts? I can’t finish this post and this section on the auction without taking the opportunity to once again underline an instance of Jerkicho being a jerk. Making Tess work for her reward when he could never outbid her. We know who the real ‘Mothertrucker is tonight’. What Zenry did was playing the game. What Jerkicho did here was just spiteful and malicious. Just a jerk, jerk move. It made me feel better when he made like George W. Bush and stuffed up the ‘fool me once…’ adage…

IMG_2620
Oh no he di’nt

And now, I can finally get some sleep. Three nights a week is a killer. Four next week if Aus Survivor is three nights again and you count US Survivor. As much as I’d love to there’s no way I can post about US Survivor as well as Australian. That would almost be a full-time job! And I’m afraid I’m not in a position where burley men in baseball caps give me envelopes of money with which to buy food. I have to actually work for my money.

IMG_2618
Oh he did. He really did.

One thing I will take time to write about though, hopefully before the end of the season, is an entire post on Henry’s game. I’d really love to take the time to break down all of the moves he made and see where the value is and what to avoid. Even though he didn’t get to the end, I’m not convinced that his flip to Samatau was a bad move. He threw so much at the game there’s a lot to chew on and I think it will be an interesting exercise. Tell me what you think and stay tuned. Until next week, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

*You may or may not have noticed that this post is full of links to songs by The Who (and one by The Rolling Stones). Did you find them all?! Unfortunately I couldn’t add links to the references in the title so here they are: ‘Won’t Get Fooled Again‘, ‘Bubbly O’Riley‘.

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Episode 16 – ‘Payback is a Bub’ OR ‘Summer(Tau) Lovin, Happened So Fast’

Don’t start the merge in a jam, get all the up to date pre-merge analysis here.

IMG_2574
You know that’s not how war works right Jerkicho?

This is why we love the merge. Going in to tribal I had no idea of the way this was going to go, just as coming in to this merge I did not know where the alliances stood. Now that we have our first post-merge tribal under our belt, we have a better idea what the moving parts are and which way they’re moving. Let’s see if we can actually articulate these below.

Underlining Strategy

IMG_2572
Irony is a dish best served delicious…

I must say I was surprised to see Jarrad move so forcefully so soon after the merge. Though we’ve not seen a hell of a lot of Jarrad over the last 15 episodes, I had the impression that his gameplay would be more subtle than what we saw tonight. Generally the way to play going in to the merge is to lay low and watch what happens. So to see Jarrad of all people try to make a move was surprising and clearly didn’t go so well for him. I can understand and appreciate the thinking behind it, to strike before he sees it coming. He’d obviously been thinking it for some time and was waiting for his opportunity to go for it. And I agree that it would be a great dot point on the resume. Unfortunately this is classic over-confidence bias at work. He wants something to happen, and instead of looking at all the things that could go wrong, if he knew them he ignored them because the temptation was so great. It was this overconfidence that had him thinking that Locky would be with him. While Jarrad did show some awareness of the flaws in his game in his post exit blurb over credits, it’s a shame for him that he didn’t have this awareness of what was going on around him as it was happening.

Flippin’ Plankers

IMG_2570
It is I, Captain Obvious!

Jarrad wasn’t the only one I thought was falling prey to overconfidence bias. When Zenry started talking about it being time to start ‘making decisions’ I was worried that he might be the one getting overexcited. Again, I didn’t necessarily diasagree with his decision that Ziggy was dangerous and needed to go. My current assessment as to why he was successful in influencing Locky, while Jarrad and Tessa weren’t, was in their approaches. Tessa particularly showed great awareness of her opponents’ characters in her understanding that Locky needed his ego stroked and to be made to feel important in order to keep him under control. However, in actually discussing the way forward with Locky and getting his opinion, she was forthright with him about what they needed to do (To Target Luke. We were given the impression that there had already been a discussion with Locky re targeting Zenry, unfortunately we don’t know the details). Zenry on the other hand made Locky feel important. While he was urgent in his plea to Locky to come with him, he did it in a way that made Locky feel important and that they were doing this together. Tessa and other Samatauans wanted Locky along for the ride, Zenry made Locky think he was in the driving seat.

IMG_2594
These captions write themselves.

Of course it is worth noting that Zenry had spent most of his time at Samatau forming a bond with Locky, whereas the rest of Samatau had not done so at all. I can’t recall ever seeing Jarrad have a conversation with Locky, and during the early days it was pretty clear that Locky and Tessa were amicably not aligned with one another. Locky was not the only one who needs their ego stroked.

MicHellion

IMG_2593
I wonder which side he would have supported in the last world war?

Damn that scene where Michelle confronted Tessa about not being kept in the loop was awkward. You could see Tessa trying to hold back the words that were coming out of her mouth and cringing at how they sounded. Effectively telling Michelle she was on the bottom of the alliance if she was in it at all. Was it the right move for Michelle to flip? I believe so. Both she and Locky knew that Tessa, Jarrad, Pete, and Ziggy were tight and unlikely to be persuaded to split and form sub-alliances with either of them. It looks like Locky could have an offsider in Michelle now. As much as I’m sick of seeing Locky take for granted his harem of fawning women, I hope for his sake he realises that Michelle has joined his stable. I’m more interested in seeing Michelle get as much out of this union as she can before ditching his arrogant arse.

Sucky Situation

IMG_2573
🎵Brother, brother, brother, there’s far too many of you dying…🎵

So what can old Samatau do now that it seems the numbers are against them? Shit, I really don’t know. Individually, it might be best for each of them to start looking at other options. I feel Ziggy has the charm to be able to get back in Locky’s good books, I could be very wrong about that though. She needs to start finding her new wing-person that’s for sure. Who that will be I don’t know. If you’ve got a suggestion, share below.
I have zero idea where Anneliese stands. The good news for her is that she has options. Up until this vote I thought she was with Zenry and Locky. If they really are together I suspect Locky did not have time to talk to her as he really did decide at tribal or just before, and that Zenry did not want to risk a leak. She is actually in a great position, an idol in her hand, only one person that knows (I think just Zenry right), no enemies, and potential allies all around her. I couldn’t tell you her best move now, she doesn’t need to make a positive decision yet. She can just hang and see how things shake out.
Tessa too has her work cut out for her. Having never been to Asaga and forming relationships with them, Tara harbouring old grudges, never fostering a relationship with Zenry, and showing slightly less than contempt for Michelle. Things don’t look good. She and Peter need to come up with something quick. If I were Tess, my play would be less about hitching my wagon to a strong ally, and more about finding a target to undermine. Perhaps Tara again, or even Ziggy. Whatever the case, I can see Tess and Pete scrambling next episode. Oh how the tables have turned.

Swinger’s Party

IMG_2567
Not touching it.

The other thing I want to briefly discuss before I snuff the flame on the torch of this post, is the reward ‘twist’ and the dilemma it creates. My first question is have we ever seen somebody actually choose the selfish option? I don’t ever recall anybody ever taking the selfish option. So I have no idea how that works out historically (comment below if you have ever seen a season where somebody does take the selfish option). I’ve seen plenty of occasions where somebody takes the altruistic option and is voted out next. I think that if you’re already in players’ bad books, sharing reward won’t get you out of those books. I see the point about while you would have the advantages over your opponents of having eaten, feeling clean and refreshed, and the motivation that comes with having read letters from home, the guilt at having not shared the love with everyone you live with may completely disrupt one’s game and drain any energy gained from your reward. I’d love to know how much a decision like this would change the game. Incidentally I do wonder had she taken the selfish option, how many other players, if any she could have taken with her. Were I faced with this situation that knowledge would definitely influence my decision. Regardless, I suspect my humanity would get the better of me and I would take the altruistic option.
It goes without saying that this scene had me blubbering as it always does. One thing that did cross my mind as I was watching the challenge was how much more emotional and suspenseful it would be if those letters were knocked off the balance beam and directly into the fire. Harsh. Let’s leave this post with that thought. I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)