Grand Finale – ‘Copping a Spray’ OR ‘Tsunamis and Landslides’

If you’ve not read analysis of the previous episode, no need to scrap and fight, you can read all the buzz words here.

Congratulations Kristie. Winner of Australian Survivor 2016. Arguably the first time Australian Survivor was done right. Kristie said “if it feels right, it is right” and that’s kind of the way I feel about this season. This isn’t a place to analyse Survivor as a show though, it’s all about breaking down the game and the strategy. Given this is the end of the season and such an emotional episode, perhaps I’ll indulge myself and give over to a little bit of commentary on the production. And there’s not really all that much to actually break down this episode, so let’s just get started on the mini banquet.

A Swell Old Time

There was a lot of talk online and in the tv advertising over the last week describing this challenge as ‘epic’. Now that’s a word that gets abused and overused a lot in my opinion, and coming into the episode I was expecting such abuse would happen again. They really put the challenge up on a pedestal (see what I did there?), and deservedly so. For me this WAS an EPIC moment in Australian television. I can’t think of anything bigger. The Beaconsfield miners is the only thing that comes to mind, and being real reality, that doesn’t really count (reading this back through, it’s possible that I may have been overwhelmed with emotion when writing this). Though this is the same final immunity challenge as the first US season, it was a much grander production. Not only was the setting more spectacular, the production and editing was tight, if a little overblown. As the tide swelled, so did the music. And those magnificent wide sweeping shots of the ocean and the cliffs, and the three, then two survivors arms outstretched and joined symmetrically at what they were fighting for. It worked, it had me sucked right in. Especially when Kristie started operation Lee Daddy. This scene for me was incredibly reminiscent of the 3rd act of Empire Strikes Back. The music approaching crescendo, the weather picking up, both of them drenched and precariously teetering above the abyss that is failure. It was an incredible scene. And that shot of Kristie’s dad carrying her off in her arms, there was a tear rolling down my cheek.

Strategically, the plea to Lee was fantastic. I didn’t see it coming but boy was it delicious. Why wouldn’t you do it? What have you got to lose? It put him in a position where he has to make a decision, potentially breaking his concentration. And it is just the sort of thing that Lee would go for. What we don’t know, and what I think is going to be debated for decades, is whether Lee let Kristie win. In my mind this question will be up there with ‘Who shot first, Han or Greedo?’. I wonder if we’ll ever know.

I’ll Take You

***“Lee. You are my father”… I’ll stop the Star Wars references there…***

I don’t think I can ever hear those words again without thinking of this moment. “I’ll take you”…”I’ll take you!!”. This was our “You had me at hello”. Our “As you wish”. Our “Nobody puts baby in a corner”. Schmaltz aside, was taking Lee the best move for Kristie? I don’t think you can argue with the outcome, that’s for sure. I think she was beholden to the deal. Now I’ve always said you can lie, cheat and steal. But when you make a deal like that in the final immunity, it would take some real fuggin chutzpah to renege on that. Arguably, she had a better shot against El. If people thought Kristie had done nothing to make it this far, then El had somehow done less than nothing. El may however have more friends in the jury than Lee. Certainly, she would have had Lee’s vote. Possibly she would have also had Flick’s and Brooke’s vote. I suspect El would not be able to sell herself to the jury as well as Lee. Lee on the other hand probably has more enemies on the jury. So really, as I said three episodes ago, she really could take her pick and would have won regardless. Speaking of tribal.

Proving Them Wrong

***We all know Frankie went to Hollywood, tonight he went to Samoa. Two tribes went to war.***

Kristie owned the final tribal. Though at the start it didn’t look like it was going to go that way at all. The first words that came out of Kristie’s mouth were, and I’m only slightly paraphrasing, “You all thought I was crazy, but I proved you wrong”. Arrrgggghh! I strapped in, I thought we were in for a bumpy ride. You can’t tell the jury they’re wrong and then expect their vote! Then she went on to tell them what they should have done once the merge happened. Holy shit! First you tell them they’re wrong, then you tell them what they should have done?!?!?! This was not a good start. Fortunately, she redeemed herself with some articulate answers where she owned her game. It was great for her to come in with some facts and figures too. That she had seen twenty tribals, and knew who was going home in each of them. I won’t fact check that myself, hopefully someone can confirm in the comments. Regardless, to me and it seemed to jury members also, evidence is always better than cliches and platitudes, which Lee predictably spouted. There were many fantastic moments in this tribal. Too many classic lines to mention. I have to mention a few that really stood out for me though. Lee’s “comfort spoons”; JL’s “Nice to meet you”; as anticipated Sam’s sentences didn’t make sense, he shouldn’t try and use words that are bigger than his name. As expected, this was the Nick show though. So many corkers, from “manly things” and “balls to the wall”, to the “magic land” and “lieutenant Lee of the morality police”. (To be fair to Lee, he responded pretty well to this. Wisely, neither Kristie nor Lee were ever drawn in to an argument. I can’t think of a time where a Survivor argued with a jury member and still got their vote). Even Lee’s son, Jake, got a nice line in about “Obi Wan KenobLee” (okay i just bastardised the words of an eight year old for my own amusement, don’t go all morality police on me). Speaking of kids, this is the moment I lost my shit. When those boys saw their dad for the first time in over 55 days, the floodgates opened. If anything were a tsunami this episode, it were my tears on the couch. I bawled like a fucking baby. Then Kristie won in a landslide, and I smiled through the tears.

And that’s as good a place as any to end the analysis of the season. Just as it started, bawling like a baby when I was informed my application to play wasn’t accepted. Speaking of looking back, what I’m going to do now is to relive the past three months, and go back and read the journey. You might like to join me here.

I got nothing else for you. You can head home.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 25 – ‘I Owe You a Big One’ OR ‘Pulling It Off and Winning a Necklace’

If you’re yet to read the analysis of the previous episode, I’ll throw you a lifeline, you can check it out here.

The threesome is finally here. Unfortunately for Kristie, she is no longer in the middle with room to move. She’s not the meat in that sandwich. Instead, she’s more like banana at a bread party. There’s a possibility she’ll be invited to play, but chances are slim to bubkas. Particularly now that she no longer has the peanut butter that is Flick. Time to turn this discussion into a chicken carcass and break it down.

How to Make a Jury Cringe 101

Move along, nothing to see here. Kristie made the move that we all suspected she would, now in order for her to make it to final two she has to win immunity. This was a stupid move. Not because I don’t think that she can beat Lee or El. I’ve said multiple times that if she makes the final two she will beat both Lee and El. But the way that it played out at tribal, it was clear that she wasn’t going home. It was also made very clear in the tribal that El and Lee would take each other to final two should either of them win immunity. So had she sent a vote towards Lee then she remains safe and in the top three, and potentially faces Flick in the final three. Arguably this would give her a much better shot of making it to the final two. I have to give her credit for the way that she backs herself though. It’s inspiring to see her grab the bull by the douchebags and commit herself to going toe to toe against Lee and El. She has to, the reality is I see no situation where she can make final two without winning immunity, and I won’t even take the time to entertain such possibilities, it would be an exercise in futility. What I can do though is consider how she might address the jury should she beat the odds and win immunity.

Much like the pole that one has to fashion at immunity challenge, even if one’s game is long enough, if it’s not strong enough at the end, or you don’t have a hook, you don’t get the key to the prize. So what is Kristie’s story and is it strong enough? How did she get here, does she have a hook? Kristie has told us many times in the past that she is a floater. The problem with that word is that it devalues the decisions that she has made. The word floater suggests that she let others make the decisions for her. This may be the case but you don’t want the jury to think this. She has said she has played an independent game. The word ‘independent’ can be taken a couple of ways. It could be said that she didn’t listen to peoples advice or that she hasn’t had the help of others. The reality is that she has had the help of others. A lot of help and a lot of luck. If I were her I would be playing up the fact that she made decisions, tough decisions, at every step of the game to get herself further. That these were smart decisions and the proof is in the pudding. She also needs to accept that there were people that helped her, and that she milked those opportunities for all that they were worth. If it were anyone else but Kristie in this situation, I would advise that she talk up her social game, and argue that this was the reason the opportunities came her way. Alas, for Kristie, social skills probably aren’t her strong suit, certainly not from what we’ve seen. This was evidenced by her being voted least popular at final six. So such a play I’m sure would be met by the jury with laughter. In terms of a hook, unfortunately for K, the move that she made against Phoebe was arguably her biggest, but the only person on the Jury who saw it and saw how big a move it was is Sue. There’s no harm in using it as an example anyway, if you’ve got it flaunt it. I can’t think of any other moves she has in her story that she can use. If there’s something you think I’m missing please let me know in the comments.

‘El Yeah

***I’ll let you insert your own caption here…***

Another person I have to give credit to tonight is (I can’t believe I’m writing this…) El. Only because she actually had a thought. It was a good thought. It was such a good thought that even I had not thought about it. The thought was that if she and Lee kept Flick in the game, then she would go to final two regardless of who wins immunity in the final episode. Obviously if she wins immunity she goes, if Lee wins he takes her, and if Flick wins she takes her. Once she had this thought however she didn’t act on it. I suspect because Lee could see that it was risky for him and he convinced El that they should target Flick. Unfortunately for El, Flick is also the only person that she could possibly beat (if Brooke votes against Flick, check out the numbers here). So tonight she missed her only opportunity at winning the game. Her other option tonight was to vote against Lee. I suspect if she had done this, she would not lose Lee’s jury vote. Furthermore had she done this, having made such a big move may have actually moved her up a few pegs in the minds of the jury. Unfortunately, for us the viewers and for her, she didn’t go there, and we’ll never know how that scenario could have played out. As much as I’d love to talk about how El can and should address the jury… I’m sorry I couldn’t type that with a straight face…

Closing Arguments

What will Lee have to say should he make it to the final two? I expect that he will probably get some questions from Nick, JL, Matt and Brooke about his strategy. He’s argued for some time that he is strategic. That his strategy was to find a strong alliance and try not to piss anyone off. Though that’s a fair answer, I doubt that will satisfy the jury. Sam could also have a go at him about turning on him. His initial reaction to that might be to argue that he was just getting Sam before Sam got him. And it’s a fair argument to make. I think the best way though to actually counter this question is with humility. Sam will want to hear how hard it was for Lee to do that to his mate, and how ultimately he saw Sam as a threat. I think Sam will respect that and it may earn Lee his vote. He needs to play up the moves that he made, and the things he achieved. He was a challenge beast. And when it came down to it, he was the one who was able to convince Kristie to vote his way. In this respect, his actions completely impacted the game. He would not have had the ability to do that had he not made such a strong connection with Kristie. These are all solid arguments for him, but to be honest, they’re all moot points. The reality is that Lee will stick to the standard post match cliches. Tell us how he gave 110%. I bet ten dollars he says “full credit to Kristie/El”. We’re going to get nothing of substance from him.

I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’

Given the Flick (oh shit…)

***“What’s that smell?…oh, desperation…”***

So sad to see Flick go tonight, she was the last remaining tactician and has been for some time. She did everything she could this episode to stay. She tried every possible angle tonight. She pushed hard in the challenge. She puckered up and kissed some arse, (no wonder she smelt like “stinky colon”). She tried to convince Kristie on a rational level. Regrettably Kristie decided to go another way. The only thing that might have changed tonight’s outcome is if somehow she had established the type of bond with Kristie that Lee has. I guess since the merge happened, she did not suspect that she would end up in a situation where she needed Kristie’s trust, and didn’t foster a relationship with her, at least not one that we saw. Even if she didn’t think Kristie would make it this far, she should have (and to be fair I’m sure she did) at least fostered the relationship in the hope that she would earn Kristie’s vote. Live and learn I suppose. Take this as a cautionary tale. Foster those relationships, no matter how much you think you wont need them. And DON’T TELL SOMEBODY THAT THEY’RE LEAVING!
Until tomorrow night’s finale, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 26 Finale analysis here!

Episode 24 – ‘Jek-El & Hyde’ OR ‘Dracu-Lee’

Have your emotions confused your path forward? If so, get back on track by reading my previous post here.

***EL is smiling because she finally learned what the word ‘alliance’ means***

Once again Kristie has a predicament. The power to change the game in her holistic little hands, and then she goes and sides with Lee and El. Let’s go ahead and break down if this was a good move for her, and where our other Survivors now sit.

More torn than Daniel Johns’ old photos of Natalie Imbruglia

As much as I don’t like the move, because I personally don’t like Lee or El on my television anymore (in fact I’m hoping that someone can tell me if there’s a google plugin that can delete the letters ‘L’ and ‘E’ from my internet browser so I never need to hear about them again), I argued last week that Kristie could beat El and Lee, and I stand by that. I won’t go through the numbers again (if you want to check them out do so here), but if anything Lee and El’s performance tonight has them potentially losing a vote or two should either of them make it there. Kristie has a better chance of making the final three by making the move she did. Idols aside, I can’t see Lee voting her out next round, I can’t see El not voting against Flick. That puts her in the top three. Getting to top two is much harder. I can’t see Lee and El not taking each other, regardless of Lee’s assertions that they haven’t discussed a top two. So for Kristie to make it to the top two now it almost seems like she has to win immunity to get there. Are there really no other options though?

***This scene brought back a lot of memories of my time in ‘ball waiter college’…***

If Kristie doesn’t want to go to final three with Lee and El is there anything she can do before then? Other than having taken El out tonight, there’s not much. It would require Kristie work with Flick and then convince either El or Lee to vote the other. Now that’s a hard sell. I suspect that El would never work with Flick now. Lee on the other hand, again, I just can’t see anyone talking him out of voting with El. And to be fair, why would he? I think he would beat her in a final two, (five votes to four if you follow last week’s numbers). At this stage though if you want to break up Lee and El, that’s you’re only option, so what have you got to lose? You’d have to throw it out there, as Lee says, have a crack at it. Aside from that hail mary play, the only other way we are likely to end up with a three that doesn’t include both Lee and El is if Flick wins immunity. That seems to be Flick’s only shot, and that is something I’d love to see!

For the love of all that is holy, Flick please win immunity!

Flick winning immunity would make things very, very interesting indeed. That would leave Lee, Kristie and El having to vote turn on each other. I have absolutely no idea who which way they would choose to go. Given Kristie seems to have finally settled on the loyalty/mateship route, I suspect that she would not vote against Lee. She’s said a couple of times now that it’s not about the numbers. But we did see her momentarily be happy to vote with Flick and Matt and I feel that she was genuine about that move at that time, and would have gone that way until she was dissuaded by Lee and El. But given how wishy washy she is it’s not outside the realms of possibility that she would vote Lee out. That would be the smarter move for her, as I doubt that in a final three of El, Flick and Kristie, Flick or El would take each other to the final two. I could be wrong about that, Flick may feel that she has a better chance of beating El than she does Kristie. That is a real lineball call. Again, according to last week’s numbers, if Flick gets Brooke’s vote then she would beat both Kristie and El five to four. Incidentally when I suggested last week that Brooke may respect Flick’s game play and still vote for her even though Flick blind-sided her, I received more correspondence than ever, all of it telling me how wrong I was that Brooke might vote for Flick. This may be the case, I guess we’ll have to wait and see, though we may not get the chance. In any case, on my numbers, whether Flick takes Kristie, Lee, or El, the votes remain the same, she either wins by one or she loses by one. Of course, she’s got a much better chance of getting to the top two if she wins immunity and tries to get Lee voted off. I’d love to see this happen next episode.

El flips her shit

El is angling for a job as a gymnastics judge after Survivor…

Wow, it did not take El long to turn nasty there. This was a serious case of Jek-El & Hyde. The woman whose vocabulary thus far in the game consisted 25% ‘yeah’ and 25% ‘ok’ suddenly ain’t so agreeable anymore. Though to be honest this was a good move from her. She needed to turn on Flick and put her on the spot in order for Kristie to maybe have second thoughts. Flick for her part probably played it too diplomatically. Of course, Flick should never have told El what the plan was. Does nobody read this? You never, ever tell somebody that you are voting them out. It never works (please prove me wrong in the comments). My guess is that Flick was thinking two things when she did this. Firstly, I genuinely believe that Flick counted El as a friend and wanted to maintain that friendship out of the game. Secondly, I suspect that Flick was trying to mitigate any jury fallout, and ensure that she still had El’s vote. Noble intentions, but biggest backfire ever. This is Survivor lady. When you’ve played an underhanded game for fifty days, you can’t then try and play the friendship card, especially with the person you’ve been underhanded with. This is perhaps indicative of El’s social game. El’s relationship with Flick was strong enough that Flick felt it necessary to do that. Furthermore, when El confronted Flick about any final two deals, Flick then had the opportunity to throw El under the balls and tell Kristie that El had promised Flick a threesome with Lee (insert snigger here). Whether she was being too diplomatic, too polite, or was simply just lost for words, that didn’t come up. El had the good sense to end the conversation, grab Lee, and force Kristie into explaining herself, of which I thought she did a pretty good job. Unfortunately, Lee then opened his big fat boofhead mouth didn’t he.

Unsportsmanlike Conduct

***…and the award for most manipulative thing said all season goes to…***

So the discussion moves to this bully. Thus far in the game we’ve seen Lee be rather protective of Kristie. Now it seems that he was less being protective of Kristie and more protective of his game (if you can call it that). It was utterly disgusting to see him bully and threaten her during the beach conversation. I’ve never been a fan of the threaten move. It’s an ugly, ugly move. So when he suggested to Kristie that if she voted out El he would push extra hard not to let anybody else win immunity (which is bullshit, he’s a ‘professional’ sportsman for fuck’s sake, we all know he gives 100% EVERY challenge) I was disgusted and enraged. Then to follow that up back at camp by not allowing Kristie to talk to Matt or Flick, and speaking on her behalf, that fucker took it to another level. Poor Kristie just had to sit there like the little kid stuck at the dinner table while their parents are fighting over who gets custody, while this Trumpian oaf completely disrespects her by not allowing her to make her own decisions and treating her like an object to be fought over. Very poor form. Last week we saw Lee play this very scenario much differently. Just listening to and commenting on Kristie’s predicament, but still allowing Kristie to make her own decision. I almost found him to be a good guy in that moment. How wrong I’d have been. It’s a shame that most of the jury didn’t see his vulgar display this episode. But guess what Lee? Australia did. Australia did.

Disappearing Act

***Don’t sell yourself short buddy, you smashed that puzzle challenge!***

Unfortunately tonight sees the departure of our beloved Matt. Kudos to Matt on a strong episode. He gave his all in the challenge. He managed to convince Kristie to join he and Flick (momentarily). He stood up for himself while Lee was having a go at him. Plus he had a great line at tribal council for El “so, like, an alliance”. That was gold. Best moment of the past handful of episodes. Could he have done anything tonight to save himself? I guess once shit started going down he could have approached Lee and El and told them he would vote with them against Flick. With Lee and El uncertain of just where Kristie stood they may have gone for that. Unfortunately it would have burned his closest ally left in the game (though after Lee and El’s performance tonight Flick may not give them her jury vote if either of them are in the final two against Matt), and left him with a lot of work to do next episode. But one more tribal is one more tribal, and coming close at winning this challenge means maybe a win next challenge. It’s worth a shot when there’s nothing left to lose. Regardless, we’ll miss you buddy, such a shame you were “pinched at the post”. I hope it didn’t hurt too much mate. That’s Survivor, the turntables don’t always turn your way.
This conversation’s over. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 25 analysis here!

Episode 23 – ‘Spilling the Beans’ OR ‘I Got a Big Mouth’

If you need to check out the previous episode's analysis, then you're at a disadvantage. Check it out here.

I'm afraid my worst fears have been realised, Lee and El are still in the final five. This was all thanks to Kristie deciding that Lee and El were better to move ahead with than Flick. Fuggin mateship and loyalty, bah humbug. Needless to say I don't like this move, and not only because I personally don't like Lee and El. I find them boring and without gameplay. The main reason I don't like this move is because I've long said I think it's very difficult to beat Lee or El in the final two. Is this still the case though?

Knowing the Numbers Well

At the 'getting to know you' challenge last episode we learned that Lee was the most popular contestant and Kristie was the least. If popularity translates to jury votes, then that certainly puts Kristie at a disadvantage if she were to stick with Lee to the final two. It might be time to reexamine this presumption that Lee and El are unbeatable in the final two I've been holding on to for a few episodes now. So let's take a look at the jury numbers though. If we look at the final eleven and forecast and rank who they think is most deserving to win this we end up with the following:
Nick: Flick most deserving, followed closely by, Kristie, Matt, Lee, and El

Kylie: El, Lee, Flick, Kristie, Matt

Sue: Kristie, Lee, El, Flick, Matt (I really don't know what Sue is thinking, but I think she definitely would put Kristie at the top)

JL: Kristie, Flick, Lee, El, and Matt

Brooke: this could go either way, but I'd like to think that she would stick with Flick, followed by El, Lee, Matt, and Kristie

Sam: Matt, Flick, Kristie, El, Lee

Matt: Flick, Kristie, Lee, El

Kristie: Lee, El, Flick, Matt

Flick: El, Matt, Lee, Kristie

El: Lee, Kristie, Flick, Matt

Lee: El, Kristie, Flick, Matt

(Looking forward to the final episode to see how wrong I am. If you disagree please tell me your thoughts in the comments)

Game Changer

Ok, so based on the above presumptions if Kristie went against Lee or El then Kristie actually wins 5 to 4. If she goes against Flick then she loses 5 to 4, unless Brooke still resents Flicks move and votes against her, in which case Kristie wins 5 to 4. And against Matt she wins 6-3. With these numbers Kristie actually has the best chance of winning the game, if she can make it to the final two. Ideally for her though her best bet is to go to final two with Matt, which is going to be hard to pull off with Lee and El still in the game. I can't really see a scenario whereby this could happen. For Kristie to make it to the final two against either Lee or El then Lee and El need to be broken up before final three, because it's a pretty decent bet that Lee or El will win that final immunity if they're both in the final challenge and they will take each other. For Lee and El to be broken up however, Kristie would have to flip against them at some stage, weakening her position with the other, not so much though that the other would consider putting Flick or Matt before Kristie. So the overall impression that I'm getting about Kristie's road ahead is that she will continue to be a floater and there is every possibility that whichever way she floats she may just end up in the final three. Flick's road ahead is a different story altogether.

Bite Me Hard

Once Kristie indicated at tribal that there was a possibility she may not flip with Flick, it weakened Flick's move against Lee and El. Fortunately she had put the wheels in motion for a split vote (very smart Flick!), which would have still resulted in three votes against El. But with Sam's vote neutralized, if Flick had proceeded to vote against El, then it would have resulted in a 2-2 tie, with a possibility that Lee and El would both stay and know that Flick had voted against them. She really had no choice but to flip her vote back with Lee and El. Shame Flick, I would have liked to have seen you smash another alliance. Let's take a look at the jury numbers for Flick. As above, if Brooke votes with her, then she could beat Kristie 5-4. Against Lee and El she needs Brooke's vote to win 5-4. Against Matt she clearly wins with 6 or 7 votes going her way. Getting to the final two is going to be tough though. Firstly, she has to break up Lee and El. Very, very difficult with Kristie seemingly dropping anchor at the Isle of Lee and El. The best bet for Flick now is to win some friggin challenges, because I can't see anybody's wanting to take her to the final two. Good luck Flick. Much like Brooke, you played a very strong game, unfortunately Kristie decided to go another way.

In Need of Magical Scenarios

Similarly for Matt, it looks like the only way he is getting further is by winning some immunity challenges. We know he can do it, they just have to be the right challenges for him. According to the above numbers though, there isn't anyone he can beat at final two. If he does, he is going to have to spin one hell of a story to be able to swing some votes his way. Hopefully for Matt's sake I've got the numbers completely wrong.

Sleeping on a Cloud

Lee and El are sitting rather pretty right now with the most solid alliance that we've seen all season. It's unlikely that anything can break this alliance now. For either of them to win, the best bet is for one of them to take Matt. They can do that as long as Flick doesn't win immunities. It would require that they flip on each other or Kristie though and that seems unlikely. Or Matt wins the last immunity and makes that decision for them. A quick comment about Lee's comments toward Kristie at camp, telling her that she didn't have to take the 'magical' options. Was this a dig at Matt? If so, that was sly brother. Nice one, and good on you for using a three syllable word.

Exile on Main Beach

A final note about Sam. Was there a possibility he could have avoided this? Well, the reason he is here is because he sided with Brooke against Lee and El a few episodes ago. This put him in their bad books. Unfortunately he didn't do anything to try and redeem himself get back in their good books. He had an opportunity once Brooke was voted out to go to Lee and El and apologise and lay the blame on Brooke. Unfortunately he did the opposite and told Lee to suck it up. He also had a chance at exile beach, far away in time, to approach the two of them to see if they wanted to work with him. He really did nothing to keep his options open. Kristie, and Flick to some degree, have always kept their options open, and this is reflected in how far they have continued in the game.

Again though, and I hate to keep harping on about this, did no-one look for an idol at exile beach, far away in time? Lee for one should know better! He's been there before and knows that idols are on exile beach, far away in time. J-LaP is still asking if people have them so I presume they're out there. I would have expected Matt or Flick to look for one at their reward as well. I'd love to know if there was one there. If anybody is reading this who knows, please fill me in in the comments. Maybe we'll see one come into play to make things interesting again for our final five.
Three episodes left now and my hopes are pinned on a Flick, Matt or Kristie win. With Lee and El still there this seems increasingly unlikely. Perhaps I'll be pleasantly surprised. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 24 analysis here!

Episode 22 – ‘Can’t Quite Get it Up’ OR ‘Can He Pull Off Something Special?’

If you haven’t read my analysis of the last episode, follow the co-ordinates here.

Raaargh! I got dressed up for the letdown. So much potential in this episode and that is where they end it?! I’m not saying it was a bad episode, but Channel Ten, if you’re going to wine me and dine me, then at least have the decency to seal the deal with a real tribal. Anything less is just plain rude. I was all lubed up with some tantalising twists ready for a wet and wild spa splashdown. Then you leave me hanging like that. Not cool Channel Ten. What am I saying, I can’t stay mad at you. I guess I should know better by now than to expect there would be a boot tonight. Now no result tonight means not much to talk about here, but we can keep chipping away and find something to get our teeth into.

You Can Call Flick the Pig-Catcher (‘cause she saved Lee’s bacon – I’m so sorry)

Flick starts the episode saying that she is loyal to Lee and El and wants to go to the end with them. Are you crazy woman?! Have you not listened to a thing I’ve been saying?! Last episode we finally had some people talking about who they might beat in the final two. This episode all of that seems to have gone out the window. At least she has the sense to have a good chat with Matt to suss out what he is feeling after being blindsided last week. Not only does this give him the opportunity to let off some steam at Flick and calm him down, but it just might keep the lines of communication open so that she is aware what Matt’s next play is. I’ll say it again, as much as Flick may come off cold and cutthroat to the camera, she really does play a good social game on island. She is very good at talking to people. Thankfully Matt is actually working on a plan.

The Victim, Playing

Finally we see Matt start playing, only a little bit, but playing nonetheless. I wouldn’t say he was going down swinging necessarily, more like blindfolded swatting at a piñata with a soggy tea towel, but it’s more than we’ve seen him do for some time. To be fair, big swings are probably not the best thing for his game now, this is the point where you don’t want to be seen as a threat. Big moves might sound good on a final two resume, but at the wrong time they will only hurt his chances of getting there. He has the nous to realise that El and Lee are unstoppable as a twosome and the only way that he can break those two up is to use Flick. When he questioned Flick on who the two biggest threats in the game are I thought this was a really nice way of getting her to reconsider her loyalty to Lee and El. Now I’m not naïve enough to believe that she possibly hadn’t already thought this, but at least he’s playing, and it lets Flick know that he is open to a move with her. If you can show someone that you are an option for them to go ahead with then you would think that the likelihood that they vote you out decreases. I had hoped that his great reward win would give him the ability to strategise some more, but alas. It didn’t work out that way. Incidentally, there were a few things about that challenge that had me thinking. Firstly, could you just choose not to count and remember the items in the box and just start digging? If this is allowable maybe that would have been a better strategy to employ. In fact I’d like to see them use that option in the future. There have been a few challenges in the last couple of years, and in the current US season where players could choose from different strategies. Usually choosing between a slow, but easier option and a fast but hard option. That could have worked well for this challenge. Hope you’re listening producers, I’ll expect a cheque in the mail. It did look like those puzzle pieces were pretty deep though and so if it was allowable, it may not have been wise in this instance. I also wondered whether players, after having grouped and counted the items, could then write the number of items in the sand next to them, so that if they had to come back to refresh their memories they didn’t have to tally again. Food for thought, I’ll have to remember that for if I ever get a shot on island (hint hint).

Hip to be Square

Once we heard what the reward would be my mind went straight into, who would you want to take with you, strategically? When it was announced there would be some sort of tribal tonight to determine, that changed everything completely. You can’t strategise when you have no idea what of the pieces that you’re playing with, let alone what board you’re playing on. It made me question if I would even want to win the challenge. Sometimes the last place you want to be is away from the tribe. It gives people the opportunity to strategise without you, potentially putting you at risk. You would actually want to keep an ally with the rest of the tribe so that they can fill you in on what went down in your absence. Of course there is also the possibility that an idol or clue will be at reward, that’s something you don’t want to miss out on, or worse, let somebody else have. The way it worked out though, Matt didn’t get any strategic advantage from winning reward at all. He didn’t get to pick who was coming with him, it looked like Flick made that decision. However, the two people that he will be at reward with are the two people he would most want to be there, Flick and Kristie. Meanwhile Sam, who we assume is Matt’s tightest alliance at this time, is sent to exile beach, far away in time, with El and Lee the enemy. I think it’s safe to assume that there is an idol or a clue at exile beach, far away in time, hopefully there’s also one at the spa. Speaking of bathrooms…

Floater in the Dunny

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Has our floater finally found a strategy to cling to? Well, she was as elusive and vague as ever in her pieces to camera. In true Kristie form however nothing is off the table for her. She really did some lovely play this episode. She was humble with Lee (good on him for taking the time to have a chat with her by the way) and let him vomit out where he stood. After he had coughed up that info she then pointedly, yet casually asked about Lee and El’s relationship with Flick. This is the information she really needs to be able to determine whether Lee and El are likely to stay Aganoa strong or give Kristie the flick, as it were. She also noticed that her alliance was chatting without her and again was able to ask them pointedly about what they were talking about, which of course, they totally bumbled. This gave Kristie all the motivation she needed to run to the toilet (what a terrible name for Matt) and look for other options in this game.

She also put herself in an important conversation with Flick and Lee, where they were discussing splitting the votes, if this was to go ahead and K didn’t like it she would potenitally have the power to flip a 2-2-2 vote into a 3-2-1, sending home the player of her choice. All in all this was a great episode for K, she again has put herself in a position where she has options and none of them are particularly hopeless.

Next time on, Survivor

**Who’s gonna come out of the next episode clean, and who’s gonna have to get dirty?**

So although nobody went to Jury Villa tonight, it’s fair to say that the scene is set for an unpredictable episode tomorrow night. Not only do we not know which way Flick and Kristie are going to move, there could be up to two idols in play, plus let’s not forget that Lee still has an advantage that is only good for two more tribals. Tomorrow night should be a cracker, though I should probably lower my expectations lest I be disappointed, again.

Until then, I got nothing else for ya. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 23 analysis here!

Episode 21 – ‘I’m a Believe-her’ OR ‘Last Train to Brookesville’

If you were blindsided by what happened tonight, it’s because you haven’t been playing along. Check out my analysis of the previous episode here.

Huzzah! We have some gameplay! The Brick has finally split in two, and it happened from within. Big ups to Flick for getting rid of the one person that nobody could beat in a final two (that breakdown is here). After the last episode I suggested that Lee and El be broken up first, so I’m a little disappointed that Flick didn’t listen. Regardless, let’s eat the dog and discuss whether this was the best move for the guys tonight.

Flick Flop

**Our puppet-master pulls all of the strings and doesn’t even need to be there…**

Well done Flick. You recognised that Brooke was a threat to your game long term and you made moves to disable the threat. Textbook play too. I am a little worried that it may have been one move too early as Lee and El now still hold the power among the remaining players, and Lee holds an advantage. Though to be fair, had she waited one more tribal then it is likely that Brooke might have made the same play against Flick. Now that would have really been a world war three to behold. Let’s think it through. If El had gone, then that would leave Brooke, Kristie, Matt, Sam, Flick, and Lee. Lee would likely then approach Sam as his next closest alliance, and at this stage it does not look as though Sam is going to turn on Brooke. Giving Brooke the numbers to take out Flick. Ok, Flick IS smarter than I am. Now was the time to take out Brooke. Does this leave a target on her back? Potentially, but she’s done all that she can do to mitigate that in allowing El to come up with Brooke’s name (that was nice). She might now be able to sit back and make it look like this was El’s move and let her take the heat. That would be a fine line to walk there, to get the balance right between having El take the blame for the move in-game, but still be able to take the credit for it with the jury. The other thing to think about is Lee’s advantage. Does she know what Lee’s advantage is? If so I’m wondering if it would have been smart to try and influence him to use that tonight so that he could not use that against her next tribal. I’m not convinced that Lee and/or El would try to move against Flick now. If that’s the case then you want Lee to keep it this tribal so that you definitely have the numbers in a six person tribal. Turning six votes into five and avoiding a tie scenario. So who does Flick need to take out next?

To get through the next tribal I would say Sam. Play up that Sam was going to vote against Lee and keep Lee motivated to take him out. However, Sam is one of the few people that Flick can beat in a final two. Lee and El are the two people who likely could definitely beat her. I would even go as far as saying it’s becoming increasingly likely Kristie could beat her too. So you might want to keep Sam around. So the best move for Flick would be to try and break up Lee and El next. If Lee and El make it to final five and Lee still has his advantage (the last time it can be used is final five), then they pretty much have the game wrapped up. One of them would likely make it to final two and would be very hard to beat. Therefore what Flick needs to do, is appeal to Matt and Sam, tell her why she felt it had to be done, that Brooke was a threat who could not have been beaten, that the next threats are Lee and El and they have to stay together to take them out next, all the while pretending that she is still with Lee and El. Unfortunately this would mean that she would have to rely heavily on Kristie to flip on Lee and El.

Still Floating or Dropping Anchor?

***“Maybe if I keep my mouth shut they’ll forget I’m here and won’t vote for me…”***

We saw some nice play from Kristie tonight. Firstly, we’ve been shown a few times over the last couple of episodes that she has actually made some social connections with people. She’s had lots of little interactions around camp that tells us she might not be as much on the periphery as we assume. Two big chats with Lee, high-fiving Matt, water walks with Brooke. She’s clearly still keeping her finger in some pies. She’s also showed us how her mind works when she was determining what Flick’s motivations would be in coming to El about flipping. That was really good to see. But where to from here for her. She’s said all along and she reiterated again tonight that she has played an individual game, and it’s worked well for her so far. It has her in a pretty good position now. She can choose whether to stick with El and Lee, or to move elsewhere. Given that El and Lee are the biggest threat in the game right now, my gut reaction is to break them up. Kristie’s other threat however is Flick. If you’re Kristie, ideally you want to go to the end with Sam or Matt. If you’re Lee and El, you’d probably also prefer to go to the end with Sam or Matt, and not Kristie. Alright, I’ve just convinced myself, the best move for Kristie now is to break up Lee and El, then work on convincing both Sam and Matt that they could never beat Flick in a final two and hope that the final immunity challenge falls your way. This path is a definite possibility, she has a reasonable shot of winning this game now, she just needs to listen to me. My commission is just a fraction of the prize money. That fraction is 499/500ths. With flexibility as Kristie’s arguably greatest asset, is she actually now a threat?

Aganoa, noa, noa. Push pineapple. Shake the tree.

***“Lee, there are no ‘big’ blindsides and ‘small’ blindsides there are just blindsides”***

I’ve spoken a lot about how others need to take out Lee and El for the best shot at winning, so what can Lee and El do to make it through this barrage of attacks. Let’s talk advantage first. Obviously, the advantage is more powerful the longer you hold on to it. If they can use it at final five rather than final six then they have a better shot of making it to final two. So they need to find a way to get through the next tribal without using it. To have a majority they need two more. Though I have absolutely no idea where Sam’s head is at after that “big” blindside, I’m going to presume that Lee could spoon him back into an alliance. If they still have Kristie with them then they have the four needed to vote out Flick (provided Flick doesn’t win immunity). The other option, and the one that is perhaps a little more dangerous, is to turn on Kristie. If they can recognise that a) Kristie is someone that the three others could want to take to the end, and b) her flexibility makes her both unpredictable and a threat, then they could possibly form a bipartisan alliance to vote out Kristie. Then once she’s gone Lee still has the advantage to move against Flick.

If he has Sam at that point he may not even need it. If he doesn’t have Sam then the least that the advantage can do is cause a tie scenario, which is better than going home outright. Is there any value in Lee or El voting out the other now? Firstly, I don’t think they will just because they have been very tight all the way through. Secondly, as each of them are such big threats to everyone else, they need to keep each other around to a) have stronger numbers and b) have a meat shield, someone else who could be perceived as a bigger threat. If we end up with Lee and El in the final two I would be very disappointed, but it is a distinct possibility. That leaves Matt and Sam for us to ponder on.

TimTam Sam and Milk ArrowMatt (if you’ve got a better biscuit reference to apply to Matt I’m all ears)

***“How did the rabbit get into the hat?…”***

Sam, Sam, Sam…. Brooke handed you a big move on a silver platter. As she was telling you that it was time to make a big move and break up Lee and El all I heard her say was “Sam, here’s my trust, you need to get out a big player, I’m never going to see it coming, here’s your chance, talk to your buddy Lee and you can have me out of the game. Or Flick if you prefer, it’s totally your choice”. Oh well. I guess what I heard was not what Sam heard. Regardless, result is the same, other than Sam had nothing to do with it and missed a chance at a move and feels on the outs. I have no idea how Sam and Matt are going to react to this blindside. As much as Matt thought that Flick and Brooke were the angels to his Charlie, we all knew the opposite was true. Sam and Matt were the Rocksteady and Bebop to Brick’s Krang. Brick was the brains and they were the meat that did the brain’s bidding. I mentioned above that I think that it is still possible for Flick to salvage an alliance with Sam and Matt, and to be honest, that is probably the best thing for those guys to do. Given the best shot that Sam, Matt and Kristie have in a final two is against each other, the move for Sam and Matt now is to stick with Flick and break up Lee and El, then take out Flick and fight it out amongst themselves for a final two. Hope you’re listening boys. I don’t want to see Lee or El in the final two.

Bye Bye Brooke

Sorry to see you go Brooke. You played an incredible game. Unfortunately when you play so well it makes you a huge threat and it was only a matter of time before somebody tried to neutralise you. I don’t think there was much you could do about it short of winning immunity. It seemed that you had some misgivings or uncertainty about Flick in this episode, as though you felt that she may have been doing something shady. It did seem in Flick’s conversations with both Brooke one on one and when she was talking to the original Pu-ans that she was hiding something, but I may just have been thinking that because I knew that she was. I would have thought that Matt would pick up on that. Perhaps if you guys had these misgivings about Flick then you could have had a chat to Kristie to see if she would give anything away. I think that you thought you had it wrapped up and didn’t need to. Anyway, we’ll miss you. Your probably played the smartest game out there, shame that it had to come to an end. I also never get to use ‘Brick’ again. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

Brick.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 22 analysis here!

Episode 19 – ‘Blockheads’ OR ‘Literally(?) Shot Like Sitting Ducks’

If you’re yet to read my analysis of the previous episode, you can do so here.

Seriously?! This is how we are going to move into the top eight? We’re forty odd days into the game, our final nine, and people are still saying “I definitely feel like this person is someone I can work with”!? And again no one looking for a clue at the reward challenge?! This is a very different season of Survivor to the ones I am used to. As a fan, I have found the last two episodes particularly disappointing. If you’ve been reading along at home then you’ll know how much I was looking forward to these last two episodes assuming that we would start seeing some big moves. Instead we saw safe, boring and dare I say stupid gameplay result in the episode ending with a floater left in the bowl that is our top eight.

“Yeah, but”

***Little known fact: Rodin’s original concept for his sculpture ‘The Thinker’ was based on Sam.***

Yes, I am aware I sound like I’m whingeing. It’s really infuriating to watch Matt and Sam be so oblivious to what is actually going on. In Matt’s defense, he’s sticking to what he believes is a solid alliance. It’s not his fault that we the audience see that he’s not in the alliance, and he’s not in on the trick. That’s what makes it frustrating for us fans. It’s possible that if we didn’t know that his alliance wasn’t strong, it wouldn’t be so frustrating for us. I actually feel sorry for Matt. Perhaps I shouldn’t, he is playing Survivor and I’m not. He may even win for all we know. But surely it can’t be easy for him to watch this now, after believing that Brick are his ‘devils’, now knowing that he’s being played. Anyway, you gotta play the hand you’re dealt, I just didn’t think that this is the way that Matt would play it. He’s not responsible for my expectations. I also have to give credit to Brick here. Given all that’s been said to Matt, they have still managed to convince him that he’s with them. Sam on the other hand has done nothing to endear himself to me, though I’m sure he is a viewer favourite. For me, I want to at least see some strategy and some understanding of how the game works. “Yeah, but…” is how he replied upon hearing Sue and JL tell him that he could only make it so far while he let Brick control the game. What sort of a response is that?! He did at least give us the second funniest moment of the episode, when during tribal he said, and I’m paraphrasing here, “I’m still here because I’m more cleverer than you guys”. The funniest moment of course was when the top seven were having a swim and talking about how Sue was the vote and Matt asks if they need to split the votes, but nobody can respond because Kristie is there with them. Then people start pointing at Kristie behind her back, and Matt points in return, Kristie turns around and Matt has to do something with his hands so he runs his fingers through his hair. That was gold. It’s a sad reflection of the quality of gameplay on show this episode when that humorous moment is what I am spending my time reflecting on. The only gameplay I feel like we saw came from JL, and a little bit from Sue.

She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone…She’s Still Here

At least JL knew that tonight was the night to make a move. In the previous episode we saw her chatting with Matt after Nick had called out that he was oblivious to what was going on and at that point Matt agreed that there was “a lot of truth in that”. So it was not a surprise that she tried to get in his ear again today. Though her claim that she needed to talk to him ‘for his benefit’ was more than a little disingenuous, at least it got them talking. Matt however would not be swayed. We saw JL and Sue try and sway Sam, yeah, but, that didn’t work. She tries a word in Kristie’s ear. Kristie basically just smiled and nodded. JL even tried to get Flick to expose her crack. Not to mention the things that she had to say at tribal after getting her mongrel on to win immunity. As JL was spraying what she was saying I was actually thinking that she needed to go further in calling out the dynamics. She needed to push Brick to have them say exactly what the pecking order was, in much the same way that Kate spelled it out to Sam and Lee. No sooner had I thought that when Sue took my thought and JL’s lead and ran with it, calling out the bonds more explicitly and putting Brick on the back foot (who actually handled it pretty well I think). We also saw Sue come up with the idea to write Kristie’s name down. Even though had it worked it may have only got her through one more vote, I thought this was some nifty parallel thinking. It was unfortunate that it didn’t work for her. While we’re on Sue, I know I said she did some good things tonight, and I said similar things about her last night. Unfortunately tonight she also showed why it was she didn’t make it further in this game. She may not be naive, sweetheart, but she also didn’t play particularly strategically. Last night we saw Flick come to her to try and get her on side, I suggested Sue leverage this last night, but she didn’t listen (why don’t these people read my advice between tribals?! Honestly). So, there’s that, but also tonight we didn’t really see her talking to anyone other than JL. She just lay down and crossed her fingers. There was no attempt at scrambling (admittedly she hadn’t laid any groundwork that she could scramble with but at least try). So, naive she may not be, but her sharpness and observance was not enough to grant her the title of survivor when it has no action behind it. I’m sad to see you go Sue, but it takes more than that (says I, worried that friggin Lee will win).

Methinks the Lady doth not Protest Enough

So what does this actually leave JL with? Well, viewers less well-versed in Survivor might say that JL has completely burned her bridges. If she doesn’t win immunity next episode she will be given her marching orders. I tend to disagree, I don’t think its a foregone conclusion at all. We did see Phoebs coast through a couple of tribals when it looked like all was lost for her, simply because people were scared of bigger threats. And though I do wish JL had called out even more at tribal, what she did say may just be enough to put some fright into people. Sammy we know can be flighty, it’s possible that he has taken some of what was said tonight seriously, and realises that if he allows BrickEl to continue he’s out. El herself may actually feel somewhat insecure that she is tied to what is now clearly a target and choose to distance herself from them and start to play her own game. Lee may think… that would be a good start for him. What Kristie plans to do though is anyone’s guess. You can only float for so long before you need to start making moves to climb out of the bowl or you’re going to be flushed. I’m having a good think about the best move for her and she’s got lots of options. If the status quo remains with the top five staying tight then her only move is to wait for the flush. Given all of the explicit attempts that we’ve seen to break that top five, I’m actually beginning to think it may not be possible to create your own crack. If this is the case the best bet for her, and JL and Matt for that matter, is actually to wait and hope that some of what JL has said has stuck, and that one of those top five feels as though it’s time for them to make a move against their alliance before the move is made against them first. I feel that JL, Matt and Kristie are not going to get anywhere by explicitly pushing a move between now and next tribal. They need to sit back, maybe, ever so subtly drop a few hints about the five needing to turn on each other soon, and then sit back and wait for someone to come to them. In fact I would argue that if you were one of the top five and you did want to make a move, next vote is the time to do it. You’ve got three numbers on the periphery that you could use. Wait any longer and you either won’t have those numbers there, or someone else will strike first.

Devils Between My Toes

I assume that Brooke feels that taking Flick to final two is her best move. I would agree with my assumption of what she feels. I do imagine though that it is possible that she may be having doubts in her alliance given all the shade that has been thrown their way lately. Is it possible that Flick could be hoping to throw Brooke under the balls before she gets to the final two and take Sammy or Lee, or even JL or Kristie with her? If I were Flick I certainly wouldn’t be taking Brooke to the final two with me. There’s no winning against Brooke. Maybe, just maybe JL has a shot of winning against Brooke if she continues to dominate challenges and make some moves on her way there. I can’t see anyone else beating Brooke in the final two. So Flick needs to find a way to remove Brooke from the final two. The bind for her is that the best way for her to get there is for Brooke to take her. It’s a catch 22. Brooke wants Flick in final two with her, Flick doesn’t want Brooke there. If Flick votes Brooke out too early she’ll never make it there. The ideal scenario for Flick is that she and Brooke make it to final three, and Brooke doesn’t win immunity, with the winner voting Brooke out. And I feel like there’s plenty of people that Flick could beat in a final two. The ideal scenario for Brooke is that she and Flick make it to final three and Brooke wins immunity and has her choice of who she takes to the final two with her, likely beating whomever that might be (except maybe JL). Regardless, the best move for Brick is to stay together. As I mentioned above though, El may have other plans.

Flippin’ ‘El

***El takes a good hard look at the pecking order…***

So does that mean that the best move for El now is to flip on Brick? Yes, I think it is. There are enough people that want Brick smashed, and El seems to have good relationships with Lee and Kristie. So most definitely, now is the time to strike. El has a much better shot of beating Kristie, Sam or Lee in the final two than she does either of Brick. If she doesn’t strike now then she may miss her shot and then have to hope that some immunity wins go her way.

So, there’s potentially some pretty decent gameplay ahead of us. That’s not even mentioning that Lee still has an advantage in the game, that could totally change everything I’ve just suggested to our top eight. Just please please please do what I say Survivors! Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 20 analysis here!

Episode 18 – ‘Get You Out of My Head’ OR ‘Gone a Night Like This’

If you want to read about how we got to our top ten before settling in for the ride, do so here.

Well that was a huge let down. After where we left our Survivors last week, with ten of them, tonight was the night to flip the numbers against Brick and El, obviously nobody has been reading my advice, idiots. And all the pre-show hype was about Sue’s big move. Which one was that again? We found out tonight that JL hasn’t lost her voice and does actually talk (yay). Hopefully this is the start of an upwards arc for her. Also tonight what could have been an interesting twist, seemed like it didn’t actually change a thing in the game. So grab your pole and smash your balls, let’s do this.

Exile Beach, Far Away in Time

***A split in the tribe? Nah not really***

When it was revealed that the challenges bottom four would be sent to Exile Beach, I was not sure whether I liked that twist. I felt it would totally hamstring the players and not allow them to play the game the way that it is ‘meant’ to be played, taking away from those on the periphery any hope of forming a coup against those at the apex of the pyramid. Also with a number of the voting blocks unable to have the ability to come to agreement on their way to tribal, I assumed it would mean that we see tonight’s votes smattered across at least three people. How wrong I was. When we found out that there was an idol on the beach, I was a little more enthusiastic about the twist. Another idol in play is just what was needed to shake this game up, particularly in the hands of Matt or Sue. Flick went and dashed those hopes by insisting that no one look for the idol. Don’t get me wrong, this was a great play on her part. She’s said all along that she needs to be in control, and if there’s an idol out there she loses that control. An idol in the wrong hands would totally ruin her game, and its her game to lose given the tightness of Brick and El. It was disappointing to see Matt, Lee and Sue, just roll over on that and let Flick have her way. I understand that Lee doesn’t know any better, but Matt at least should be looking for that thing. If that puts a target on his back, it doesn’t matter for this vote as he has an idol. Moving to nine players after this episode you need to be on the side of five. The best shot you were going to have to break the BrickEl trio, was tonight, or next time if you’ve got an idol. Flick also has to get some credit for taking the time to talk to Lee and Matt while on Exile Beach, and try and at least calm them and reassure them that they were still in the top five alliance. She also did some spadework on Sue, though that was less successful (more on that later). Regardless, somehow everyone knew that the vote was heading for Kylie. I’m not sure whether this was the best move, or even how it shook down that way.

With a little understanding, you can find the perfect blend

: The closest Kylie came to an all-female alliance…

Is it better to keep Kylie in the mix or to cut her off now? Let’s see this vote from Brick’s perspective as they seemed to call that shot, and weigh the pros against the cons. Pros of keeping; she’s not going to vote against you; will let you know if someone comes to her to looking to flip; she’s unlikely to receive Jury votes; gives you the opportunity to remove Matt, Kristie or Sue from the game. Cons, strong in challenges; maybe Lee will suspect he’s not with you guys; if JL and Kylie are a voting block that may flip on BrickEl, prevents that from happening (big ‘if’ that we’ve no evidence for). Is that all for cons? I can’t see any others. In that case, it wasn’t the smartest move to get her out. Again without the ability to consult with everyone in your alliance, maybe it was best just to go with the easy vote. Though I do suspect that Kylie was always going to be the vote regardless of Exile Beach twist as we saw during the challenge a number of ladies say to each other, and to Sam, that it was imperative not to let Kylie win. This move however isn’t that bad for Sue, Kristie or Matt. This at least gives them one less number to go up against if they decide to aim for Brick. So what can they do to make the most of Kylie going?

Up Against a Brick Wall

***The front of the line, the apex of the pyramid, the angels of the Charlie***

I’m building the pyramid in my head as I type to try and figure out where everyone stands. If I presume that Sue, Matt and Kristie are the bottom three and the only way any of them can make it to top three is to break the Brick in two, how can they do it? El, is tight with Brick. Lee seems to be the same as he doesn’t know any better. That then leaves JL and Sam to play with. That’s a five if they can get it together. From what we’ve seen of the next episode it seems that JL is ready to make this happen. Who knows where Sam stands? Again he showed that he is really not connected to Brick as he voted Sue. He didn’t know that the real target was Kylie. Maybe this is the catalyst that is needed for him to realise that he’s not in their gang. It’s only going to take a whisper from Matt for Sam to see that Brick is a snake, and it’s head needs to be chopped off. The head of course being Brooke. Hopefully Sam could then shut his trap enough not to fill Lee in on this as it’s possible that Lee would talk to El or Flick and give them the heads up. If ever there was a last chance for the bottom three, and even the middle three (Sam, Lee and JL) to flip it, now is the chance. If you let Brick and El remain to the final eight, it is going to require a lot of luck and for immunity wins to go your way to have a shot at the top three. I have to acknowledge at this point that it’s possible that my vision could be clouded by my dislike for Brick, perhaps it’s actually better for one or more of the bottom three to keep Brick there. I really can’t see it though. If you do, please let me know in the comments below.

El’s Belles

I also have to acknowledge that I’ve made a presumption that El wants to go to final three with Brick. It’s possible that her plan is to flip on them as we get closer to the end. For her sake I hope so. If she were to make it to final three with them, even if she wins the last immunity, that puts her up against either Brooke or Flick in the final two. Having not actually made any moves so far, it is incredibly unlikely that she would be beat Brooke, who not only has called the shots but seems to have formed pretty good personal relationships with most people who would be on the jury. It’s possible, but I would still say unlikely that she would beat Flick. Flick may receive more animosity from the jury, but she has still played the game hard and the jury may respect that. Both of these scenarios likely result in an El loss, so her best bet is to flip on Brick at some stage. Final five is that time though, not now. If she were to flip now she loses the security of that alliance and could easily find herself without any other security to hang on or and therefore easy pickings. Yeah, she needs to flip at five to have a shot at winning the game. I can’t wait to see what happens when the top three start to realise that they’re going to need to turn on each other soon. Particularly Flick. Flick can’t win if Brooke’s there, I hope for her sake she realises this before Brooke does.

A Perfect Fit

Although we didn’t see the big move from Sue we were promised tonight, before I wrap this up I do have to give her some credit. When approached by Flick (incidentally that scene was, to quote Flick herself I believe, “awkward as” for Flick, watch it again here), Sue realised Flick was blowing smoke up her arse. And whether it was by accident or design, her response to Flick was “my ambition is to make it to top six” was genius. That is, I would imagine, exactly what Flick wants to hear. Again, whether by accident or design, her vote for Kylie may have helped to solidify Flick’s impression of her loyalty. Sue needs to spend the next two days subtly reassuring Flick that she will vote with Flick to the top six, so it is less likely that Flick will see the vote coming against Brick.

If all goes as predicted, tomorrow night could be a great episode. Unfortunately it could also be another boring episode of The Brick Show. Guess we’ll find out soon enough. Until then, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 19 analysis here!

Episode 17 – ‘Tea & Sympathy’ OR ‘Jury Duty’

If you are yet to read about phase 1 of Sam’s diabolical plan, you can do so here.

We have our first Jury member, and my first and only prediction thus far (that Nick would not win) has been realised. Another long, long, episode, what the hell Channel Ten? Anyhow, as much as I love ‘letters from home’, I’d prefer to discuss the strategy and gamesmanship on show tonight. So let’s get into it.

Snakes and Leaders

***“If only I hadn’t made up that fugging clue poem….”***

Goodbye Nick. For mine you were the most entertaining player this season. But boy did you have a bad shake. While I’ve thought for some time that Nick really hasn’t been very deceitful (idol clue aside), unfortunately the guy is so enthusiastic and plays the game at full tilt 100% of the time, he just comes across as devious. Clearly a very intelligent guy, I got the feeling he just wanted to share his great ideas with his tribemates. I get it Nick. I’ve been there. Everybody calls me arrogant but the truth is I just come off that way because I’m a fucking genius. You just couldn’t help yourself. I didn’t mention it in my previous post but there was a perfect example of this in last night’s episode. Nick did a piece to camera where he says, and I quote “I’m just going to blend into the background, just be a number” and literally the very next scene he tells his alliance his idea of how best to split the vote. Your enthusiasm is a curse my friend. Wannabe Survivors take this as a cautionary tale. If you’re as enthusiastic and strategic as Nick, you’re going to want to keep that in check and try, as hard as it may be, to not stand out in the crowd.

***Nick holds court in his last ever tribal, as a competitor***.

With the way Nick started the season we knew that he would not be long for this game, and I’m not sure whether there was anything he could have done to make it much further. After last night’s tribal council he did a piece to camera telling us that he had fifteen ideas of how he could get revenge for the votes that were sent his way. Revenge is something that is certainly not new to Nick, and I for one have been surprised, given the bitter things he has had to say about JL and Sue, that he actually hasn’t seemed to be gunning for them now that he’s actually had to attend tribal councils. We also saw him do a piece to camera tonight where he told us he was tossing up whether or not to just try and sure up his relationships by being nice, or whether he was going to enact his “scorched earth policy”. When it seemed that he had slept on it and chosen the former, I thought, ‘great job buddy’. He then followed that up with some really frank and genuine conversations with Sam & Lee, which I thought was brilliant. These conversations were very different to the conversations that he had with JL and Sue when they joined Saanapu. He did a great job of showing himself as a human, human guy. The fact that he shared an emotional and touching reward with them probably helped. Obviously as much as I loved to see it, it didn’t seem to sway Sam in his conviction that Nick is a snake and has to go. So I’m not sure he could have done much more.

If Nick could see Matt was on the outer before going to tribal, why didn’t he approach Matt and see if they could flip it?

I was surprised at tribal when he outed Matt as not having his finger in the Brick pie as much as he thinks he does, and my partner said to me, “well why didn’t he talk to Matt about this before tribal?” Good point, why didn’t he? I guess he thought that he had come up with his plan, and he didn’t need to. By his own admission however, he realised that the plan he had come up with was digested too easily by his tribemates. Very astute Nick. Why he didn’t act on this feeling I don’t know, but in hindsight maybe a word with Matt would have been a good idea. I guess it couldn’t have hurt. Either that or go to Brick, who he tells us he feels closest with, and try and flip the vote off him. It was clear to us that Flick didn’t want him to go, and Brooke thought it wasn’t ideal. Perhaps an impassioned plea to keep him, but also showing those guys why it would be beneficial to get someone out other than he may have actually persuaded Flick to do more than just think about it. Not sure anybody was ready to flip on Sam yet.

Tearjerk

I thought Sam was supposed to be one of the good guys?! Damn did we see a lot of spite from him tonight. Behaving very emotionally. It almost looked like he had convinced himself that Nick was a bad guy more than anyone else. Like he got this little idea in his head (thanks Kate) of Nick’s character and then talked himself into Nick being this season’s ‘big bad’ and that he was doing everyone a favour, and his tribe’s will by evicting him. In my eyes Sam really didn’t come off as the good guy that he thinks he is with his performance this episode. And what was with him asking J-LaP if the losers of reward could get their letters as well? Was that supposed to be him being the good guy as well, because that’s not the way it came off at all. Kristie is the one who won friends out of that little scenario (more on that later). Anyhow, given his performance in the last two episodes I can make prediction number two. Sam will not win this game. Not only has he shown that he is spiteful the last couple of episodes, but he’s confirmed what we already thought, and that is that he just does not have a head for Survivor in this season. That’s not to say he’s not smart enough to play the game, I’m not saying that at all, hell he got in and I didn’t. What it is saying though is that going into this game he was not aware of some of the basic strategy that we usually expect from our Survivors. Whether he wins or not, having now been there I’m sure he knows more about that strategy now. Where to now for our other big players?

Flick

Flick told us she wanted to keep Nick around, and that made sense for her while he was one of her numbers. I must say though I really liked her way of trying to make that happen without drawing attention to herself. To just try and quietly shift the votes to Sue was really, really smart. She has clearly been reading my analysis and knows that for her it’s not quite time to rock the boat yet, that there’s a few other people that can quietly be shown the exit door before she needs to start making any big moves. Good job Flick. We still don’t know exactly where JL is, and with Kylie as a floater, it will be time very soon to start making some more strategic decisions about how to make it further, who to cut before they cut her, and how the pecking order in her tight three is going to resolve itself and who she would want to go to the final two with. Perhaps her and Brooke already have this plan, my suggestion is to start making those moves if not at next tribal then the tribal after, before Sam, Lee and especially Matt do something about the power that your trio has in the game.

Kristie

We’ve seen Survivors sacrifice their reward in order to perhaps strengthen bonds within the tribe in the past. And more often than not it is seen as less of a heartfelt gift and more of a ploy to curry favour. While I am sure that in the case of Kristie giving her reward to Matt, she did not do it in order to be in his or anyone else’s good books, what a result it had. Usually the ploy is incredibly transparent and does not work at all, with the person going home very soon after. Matt however told us he would be forever in Kristie’s debt and Kristie gained a game-long ally. Nice work Kristie. As far as what you need to do with that, your timing perhaps couldn’t be better. Now that Matt’s eyes have been opened to his place in the tribe, it’s time to use that alliance to do some good. If you can hook up with Matt, Sue and JL(?) then that’s a solid voting block to dismantle either SamLee or BrickEl. Again, we don’t know where JL is at, but as you and Sue are such easy pickings at the moment you really need to move soon. Like, next episode, heed my warning lady.

Matt

Matt, if you didn’t know it before you certainly should now, you are no longer Charlie’s Angels’ Charlie. You’re more like, well, if Brick are Velma and Daphne, you’re Shaggy. They don’t need you buddy, in their eyes you will just get in their way. So what do you do about it? Harness those people on the periphery and move against Brick pronto. When Kate spelled out to SamLee where they are, and that Nick was higher up the totem pole than them, I’ve no doubt that they saw that Brick were at the top and Brick will have to slice them at some stage. Hopefully SamLee will move with you against Brick, and I’m sure that at least Sue and Kristie will too. Unfortunately it seems Lee has completely lost El to Brick, but perhaps Sue could convince JL to join them. That would give you the six you need to make it happen. Kylie? I wouldn’t tell her shit. In making this move though it is important that Brick feel safe. The first thing you need to do is go to them and talk to them bout what Nick had said, and not confront them per se, but just have a nice chat with them, tell them you’re still tight with them. You really need them feeling comfortable now and strike now, because within a couple of episodes they will shift out of coast mode where they just pick off the low hanging fruit, and into big move mode to get rid of big threats. Now really is the time for everyone on the periphery to start thinking about what they can do, and how they can be used by bigger players, to start making some game-changing moves. If you can form a six against four, and a solid three within that six, that could be the path to the final three, and if you’re lucky, final two. I wold love to hear other people’s thoughts about this in the comments below.

Tonight will also see the start of Channel Ten publishing their ‘Ponderosa’ videos. We’ll get a glimpse into the lives and the thinking of the jury as they live on island while the rest of the game plays out. Good on you Channel Ten for going here, that’s something a lot of fans love and crave. I’ll probably check them out and consider whether they may be worthy of discussing in this analysis ongoing. If you want to check them out you can check out the first episode featuring Nick here:

I couldn’t end this post without acknowledging a couple of delicious things Nick did in tribal tonight. Firstly, his comment directly at Sue as he wrote her name down. I don’t think we’ve ever seen anyone do that so explicitly before, and it was absolutely delicious. Secondly, he pulled the old ‘idol fake out’. Every time I’ve ever seen this it comes off as cheap and naff. Nick made it hilarious. He knew he was going and really wanted to leave with a laugh. It was classic Nick and he left us all with a smile on our face. I hope we see you again Nick, I really do. Preferably in person on island. I would LOVE to play with and against you. Keep being you brother. In my heart, you’ll always be one of the good guys. As for the rest of you, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 18 analysis here!

Survivor analysis by Russell Feathers, an Australian who thinks he has the numbers, but probably is about to have his torch snuffed (not a euphemism).

A Swell Old Time

I’ll Take You

Proving Them Wrong

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How to Make a Jury Cringe 101

‘El Yeah

Closing Arguments

I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’

Given the Flick (oh shit…)

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More torn than Daniel Johns’ old photos of Natalie Imbruglia

For the love of all that is holy, Flick please win immunity!

El flips her shit

Unsportsmanlike Conduct

Disappearing Act

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Knowing the Numbers Well

Game Changer

Bite Me Hard

In Need of Magical Scenarios

Sleeping on a Cloud

Exile on Main Beach

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You Can Call Flick the Pig-Catcher (‘cause she saved Lee’s bacon – I’m so sorry)

The Victim, Playing

Hip to be Square

Floater in the Dunny

Next time on, Survivor

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Flick Flop

Still Floating or Dropping Anchor?

Aganoa, noa, noa. Push pineapple. Shake the tree.

TimTam Sam and Milk ArrowMatt (if you’ve got a better biscuit reference to apply to Matt I’m all ears)

Bye Bye Brooke

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“Yeah, but”

She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone…She’s Still Here

Methinks the Lady doth not Protest Enough

Devils Between My Toes

Flippin’ ‘El

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Exile Beach, Far Away in Time

With a little understanding, you can find the perfect blend

Up Against a Brick Wall

El’s Belles

A Perfect Fit

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Snakes and Leaders

Tearjerk

Flick

Kristie

Matt

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