If you’re yet to check out my analysis of the previous episode, please do so here.

Maybe I’ve just had a rough day, but that was fuggin shit. What the hell is going on there?! I think I understand why they do it, it doesn’t mean I have to be happy about it. This is just not Survivor. Survivor is not, and should not be about production tricking the contestants. Have they done it just to keep Phoebe in the game? Whatever, I’m not here to talk about the show, I’m here to talk about the game. Shitwist be damned, let’s get on with it.

Phlipbe

Last night we talked about whether or not it would be wise for Phoebe to split up Phistie and throw Kristie under the balls. Where I think I landed on that was that while I wasn’t necessarily opposed to the move, it would mean that she would need to find at least two people to have the numbers on her side in Vavau, rather than just one. What we see at the start of this episode though, and what it seems that Phoebs is starting to see, is that Kristie has been too smart for her own good. The way she tried to deflect the blame of the blindside was, well it was cringeworthy in its execution, but it also showed us and Phoebs that Kristie was trying to play both sides and keep her options open. If Phoebs can’t rely on Kristie, then it might be wise to sever those ties now while the two of them are on the bottom. Better her than you right? Regardless of whether you’re going to flip on Kristie or stick with her. You need at least another person. And if you are going to flip, you need to pick someone that you can be tight with from here on out.

…I’d argue that Conner is actually a better right hand man for Phoebs than Kristie is…

Phoebe had a good go at getting Conner, and I think that if I were her, and had to choose one of those three to buddy with, Conner would be who I’d go for. He’s already shown that if he thinks you’re tight with him he’ll do your bidding like a little puppy dog. As long as you can manage his wishy washyness you’d be ok. The way to do that would just be to say “Conner, I will do whatever you want, whatever your call is I’ve got your back” for a few tribals. He’s already shown that he can’t lie to people so if he is going to screw you on that you’ll know about it in advance. So with this in mind I’d argue that Conner is actually a better right hand man for Phoebs than Kristie is. Become Smudge or The Thermals (power trio), and then slice off Kristie the first time you get a sniff that she is trying to make a move against you. So if Phoebs was going to vote against Kristie tonight, that makes twice in a row she was thwarted by production. It’s like she has to work twice as hard as anyone else to get someone voted out. All the more impressive that she’s still here.

Kreepstie (she was giving off a weirder than normal vibe tonight, sorry Kristie, I’m sure it was just the editing)

Kristie, Though I’m not opposed to you trying to keep you options open, showing Phoebs your unreliability is not going to engender her trust in you. Phoebs herself has told us time and again, she can not have unknowns in her game. Has she told Kristie this as well? Regardless, the best move for you would have been to own your decision, but still show that Phoebs had masterminded it. Trying to make out that you were not on board with the move just shows Phoebs that you’re not on board with her. Incidentally, great job here from Sue to casually ask Kristie why she was so teary in the lead up top the last tribal. It really put Kristie on the spot but did not seem in any way malicious. She’s really good at asking those pointed questions and getting away with it. She did it to find out about Aganoa’s idol and she’s done it again here. I’m sure there’s more times she’s used that approach that we just haven’t seen too. It’s like when your Nan asks teenage you, “So, you been smoking that weed?”. So casual yet so pointed you just don’t know what to do. I think I’ve a lot to learn from Sue, things that we haven’t seen in the game before. In saying that she’s boring as termite shit at tribal council.

I imagine JL is still higher up Nick’s shitlist than Sue would be.

Anyway, I’ve gotten off track, we were talking about Kristie. I acknowledge that it’s easy for me, siting here on my couch eating a Whopper Jr, to tell Kristie that she should have done better when put on the spot after living without food and sleep for almost a month. So, what can she do from here? Hell, with that tribe at a foursome you don’t have many options, you either stick with Phoebe, even after the shit she has been talking, and try and find someone else, or you throw shit back at Phoebe. There’s really not that many options. I would argue that at this point sticking with Phoebe is the best bet, because at least you have a buffer or shield later. If you decide to attack Phoebe, you would want to hope that you don’t go to tribal at three as without that buffer it’s likely that you’re going home. Will there be a tribal at three though or will some sort of merge happen first. We’ll get to that after we discuss where Kate and Conner now sit.

Kate and Conner

This will be quick. Kate and Conner aren’t a threat to each other, I see no reason for one to try and vote out the other. Phistie is the threat long term, so all you need to do is choose who you want to side with medium to long term and vote out the other. As mentioned last night, best bet for them is to stick with Phoebe for now, she needs someone tight in her corner, keep a low profile and vote as a block through the merge and towards the top eight and take her out before she takes you out. The last part is easier said than done sure, but you’ve got time for opportunities to do that to come up, and to formulate a plan. Sue will likely be one of those options. There is no way she is being voted out in an early Pu vote, there’s too many other characters they want to get rid of first, unless of course Nick bitterly takes her out, though I imagine JL is still higher up his shitlist than Sue would be. I assume Nick would be gunning to at least split them up. What I suspect though, is that a new tribe-split may do that for him.

Long Division

Once we learned the details of shitwist, my thought was that once you have ten on The Pu, then The Pu will be split in two and we go back to a three tribe game for a couple of rounds before the merge. That is the only way to give Vavau a fighting chance at not having to go to the next tribal. However, if there is a tribe of ten, or even nine, and a tribe of four, then that most likely means more than half of your tribe is sitting out of a challenge (depending on the challenge). Which of course screws the whole rule about an individual not sitting out of back to back challenges. So they will either have to change the rule, change the challenges, or change the tribes. Something has to give. My money is on changing the tribes. I’m not going to talk about Brooke’s choice in enacting shitwist as that is a rabbit hole that’s chock full of conjecture, I will say however that not picking Phoebe was definitely the right move.

Strange Bedfellow

All week people have been asking me my opinion of Kylie. I couldn’t care either way. Do I think she is a powerful and empowered strong inspirational woman? Most definitely. Unfortunately I personally find her boring to watch. To me she is playing neither an entertaining nor an interesting game. She doesn’t really seem to be playing the game at all. Well, yes, we saw her try and form an all woman alliance today, that’s trying something, but she just does not seem to have her finger on the pulse of the game or even the tribe. The only way she will make it to the end is through her challenge strength and as a goat, and that is actually becoming a possibility. And if the jury absolutely detests who she is in the final two with, I hate to say this but, she could actually win. That would probably be the most underwhelming and least satisfactory end to this season that I could imagine. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. And on that note, that’s all from me, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

 

Episode 14 analysis here!