Episode 2 – ‘Dancing With Myself’ OR ‘Adam in Chains’

Make sure you have full awareness of the camp so that you have the best shot of finding idols. If you’re yet to read my analysis of episode 1 you can do so here.

Tonight it was all about the idols. Personally I feel that its a little too early in the game to introduce hidden immunity idols. However that’s not what we’re here to talk about today. This analysis is about the game more than it is about the show. And there was plenty of gameplay going on tonight. So let’s settle in to the spyshack and discuss what goes on at the well

Here He Come Now Saying Phony Phony

***“Jarrad will you be my wing-man? That would be the breast”***

I had no idea what the hell went on in this episode. From the first sniff of this ridiculous idol, we knew we were in for a hectic ride tonight. Firstly, I’ve always loved the idea of a fake idol, so I’m glad someone’s having a crack at it. Here’s why it should never have happened this episode. For me the power of the fake idol is that it can create enough doubt to shift the focus off you when the pressure is on. Even if there is suspicion that you may have an idol it can be enough to get people jumpy enough to not risk voting you. Alternatively you give it to someone gullible enough to believe it’s an idol to gain their trust, influencing them to vote your way, while you stab them in the back. Either way, you use it when your back is against the wall and you need to create some misdirection.

“He may have felt on the out, but so did Kristie episode 2 so we know that feeling on the out is very different to actually having your chicken head on the chicken chopping block…”

The way that AK used it (or MRW, Male Rebel Wilson for those who read yesterday’s analysis), was clumsy, sketchy, and in my mind, ultimately unnecessary. From what I’ve seen, his back was not against the wall. He may have felt on the out, but so did Kristie episode 2 so we know that feeling on the out is very different to actually having your chicken head on the chicken chopping block (or in the chicken killing cone, that’s how I’ve always killed chickens). Speaking of chickens…

Chicken idol!! Who the shit believes such a thing? Well if we’re to believe the way that the show was edited, Jarrad apparently. Enough that the very next scene was Anneliese telling Aimee that the idol exists and that Jarrad has seen it. WOW.

Even if I don’t agree with MRW’s move here, you can’t deny that it hasn’t worked out the way he intended.

Idol Threats

The fact that he was eliminated aside, I don’t know that Adam could have had a worse game tonight. It was a comedy of errors, some of which were under his control, others just bad luck.

Good on him thinking to look for an advantage with the reward, but after that it went downhill. Once he’s seen it, and realises that MRW has also seen it, for me his best move was to pull MRW aside, and come up with a plan to get the clue and find the idol together. I get that their relationship is not great, but this is the point where you suck it up and work with the enemy to gain an advantage. Even if that advantage is just knowing that somebody else has it, that’s power.

Regardless, he decides to get the clue another way, asking his alliance to distract MRW so Adam can get the clue. At least he found a way to do that, but now there’s five or six people that know about an idol clue rather than just two. That’s his next mistake.

Then he decides to go looking for the idol in full view of everyone. Why? There was no rush to get the idol. MRW didn’t have the clue. Not only that, based on the clue content, I don’t think he would have guessed where the idol was. Mistake.

We later learn that his quest is fruitless, so not only has he made everyone paranoid watching him on his hunt, he has nothing to show for it. Knowing that this looks bad he returns to his alliance and tries to convince them to find the idol so that ‘bugalugs’ can’t. So deep is his enmity for MRW that the thought that MRW might get the idol is enough to send him into a panic. In his panic, his plea for help comes off as a guilt trip and a threat to his alliance. Another mistake. This is terrible.

*Locky sacrifices the modesty of his tackle box in order to win a…. tackle box*

Somehow word gets back to Locky and Ziggy (?), and Adam shows them the clue and they set off for the booty (Locky’s second booty experience this episode). Awaiting them there is only evidence suggesting that somebody has an idol. Adam’s panicked response to this, “vote me off” does the opposite of placating Locky and Ziggy, instead making them more suspicious that he’s playing them. Of all people to have thinking you’re acting suspicious, Locky is the worst. Seemingly he has more tribal influence than anyone else. I suspect that ultimately this stroke of bad luck is what sends Adam home.

(Male) Rebel (Wilson) Yell!

In true MRW fashion he gives more, more, more. Completely overdoing it. Seemingly going utterly over the top by showing off his chicken idol. Then was all over the shop telling Anneliese bullshit about Adam, doing a what looks like a piss poor job of mending his relationship with Jarrad. To paraphrase the true idol of this post, Billy Idol, MRW seemed to be dancing with himself. How he got away with this is beyond me. The only thing I can think is that Adam’s relationships were so damaged, and everyone was so sketchy about cluegate that all trust was eroded. The other take, and the least likely for mine, but the reason I would likely base my decision on were I in that situation is that Adam is simply a bigger threat than MRW. At least with MRW you know that he’s full of shit. Adam on the other hand is a smoother talker and potentially has the ability to influence people. And he’s not as transparent as MRW so you don’t know what he’s thinking.

Has MRW become the tribe’s loveable douchebag? The bullshit artist friend that you keep around because he’s harmless and provides laughs? He’s a regular Chunk from The Goonies. Whatever it is, people don’t seem to think he’s a threat to their game, and I thought the same until he pulled off tonight. Or maybe I’m wrong about that. Peter said during his vote that he thought MRW was a threat but that he had a better social connection with him, and that’s even after the homo question of last episode. This is all just a mystery to me, and I don’t know if that’s because I’m too obtuse to see what’s going on, or MRW is too erratic to pin down or we’re just not being shown enough in the edit to actually get a read on what’s happening. God only knows how MRW managed to get those people to vote against Anneliese, I’d love to hear your thoughts on that (tell me what you think in the comments below).

Shock To The System

***When MRW pulled that idol out, I said “YEAH”, yeah, “YEAH”, yeah (OK maybe that’s enough Billy Idol tonight…)***

Much like that hairstyle, it’s about time I got off MRW. Even though I didn’t make a Billy Idol on The Wedding Singer joke! But one last thing. Playing the idol for Jarrad. I was blown away when he pulled that idol out. I jumped from the couch like friggin Tom Cruise. When he announced it was for Jarrad…

Was.

Shocked.

Why the hell did he do that? Even if he knew the votes weren’t coming his way surely the smarter move is to keep the idol yeah? On reflection, I believe it is actually genius. Now that Adam was gone, and he didn’t play an idol, it would be assumed that someone must have it. Those fingers would be pointed square at MRW. Big target on his “beard” *heavily exaggerated air quotes*. So by giving it to Jarrad, he loses that target and also shows the tribe that he can be considered loyal and trustworthy and a team player. I really like the move. Sure he’s left without an idol, but he may have just won back some trust. Which is arguably more powerful.

Rock the Cradle of Love

***Hey little sister who’s your superman?***

Before I finish off tonight I need to touch on a burgeoning showmance (ugh, I feel dirty after actually using that particular portmanteau). I’m talking of course about our very own Malcolm and Denise, Henry and Jacqui. I love these two as a duo. I can’t wait to see what the two of them cook up. Quick note on gameplay here, it looked like Zenry (incidentally did anyone else hear Zenry shout out “POWER” to his tribemates during the challenge like some sort of prayer to the yoga gods?) saw the clue before Jacqui did. If that’s the case then again I would argue that the better move here is to keep it to yourself. The less people that know about it and that you’re obligated to the better.

There was a lot going on this episode and I haven’t covered everything, but I’m not satisfied with Locky cheeks, I need some real nudity and so I’m off to watch Game of Boobs. I mean Boob of Thrones. You get the idea. I’ve got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs channel ten)

Grand Finale – ‘Copping a Spray’ OR ‘Tsunamis and Landslides’

If you’ve not read analysis of the previous episode, no need to scrap and fight, you can read all the buzz words here.

Congratulations Kristie. Winner of Australian Survivor 2016. Arguably the first time Australian Survivor was done right. Kristie said “if it feels right, it is right” and that’s kind of the way I feel about this season. This isn’t a place to analyse Survivor as a show though, it’s all about breaking down the game and the strategy. Given this is the end of the season and such an emotional episode, perhaps I’ll indulge myself and give over to a little bit of commentary on the production. And there’s not really all that much to actually break down this episode, so let’s just get started on the mini banquet.

A Swell Old Time

There was a lot of talk online and in the tv advertising over the last week describing this challenge as ‘epic’. Now that’s a word that gets abused and overused a lot in my opinion, and coming into the episode I was expecting such abuse would happen again. They really put the challenge up on a pedestal (see what I did there?), and deservedly so. For me this WAS an EPIC moment in Australian television. I can’t think of anything bigger. The Beaconsfield miners is the only thing that comes to mind, and being real reality, that doesn’t really count (reading this back through, it’s possible that I may have been overwhelmed with emotion when writing this). Though this is the same final immunity challenge as the first US season, it was a much grander production. Not only was the setting more spectacular, the production and editing was tight, if a little overblown. As the tide swelled, so did the music. And those magnificent wide sweeping shots of the ocean and the cliffs, and the three, then two survivors arms outstretched and joined symmetrically at what they were fighting for. It worked, it had me sucked right in. Especially when Kristie started operation Lee Daddy. This scene for me was incredibly reminiscent of the 3rd act of Empire Strikes Back. The music approaching crescendo, the weather picking up, both of them drenched and precariously teetering above the abyss that is failure. It was an incredible scene. And that shot of Kristie’s dad carrying her off in her arms, there was a tear rolling down my cheek.

Strategically, the plea to Lee was fantastic. I didn’t see it coming but boy was it delicious. Why wouldn’t you do it? What have you got to lose? It put him in a position where he has to make a decision, potentially breaking his concentration. And it is just the sort of thing that Lee would go for. What we don’t know, and what I think is going to be debated for decades, is whether Lee let Kristie win. In my mind this question will be up there with ‘Who shot first, Han or Greedo?’. I wonder if we’ll ever know.

I’ll Take You

***“Lee. You are my father”… I’ll stop the Star Wars references there…***

I don’t think I can ever hear those words again without thinking of this moment. “I’ll take you”…”I’ll take you!!”. This was our “You had me at hello”. Our “As you wish”. Our “Nobody puts baby in a corner”. Schmaltz aside, was taking Lee the best move for Kristie? I don’t think you can argue with the outcome, that’s for sure. I think she was beholden to the deal. Now I’ve always said you can lie, cheat and steal. But when you make a deal like that in the final immunity, it would take some real fuggin chutzpah to renege on that. Arguably, she had a better shot against El. If people thought Kristie had done nothing to make it this far, then El had somehow done less than nothing. El may however have more friends in the jury than Lee. Certainly, she would have had Lee’s vote. Possibly she would have also had Flick’s and Brooke’s vote. I suspect El would not be able to sell herself to the jury as well as Lee. Lee on the other hand probably has more enemies on the jury. So really, as I said three episodes ago, she really could take her pick and would have won regardless. Speaking of tribal.

Proving Them Wrong

***We all know Frankie went to Hollywood, tonight he went to Samoa. Two tribes went to war.***

Kristie owned the final tribal. Though at the start it didn’t look like it was going to go that way at all. The first words that came out of Kristie’s mouth were, and I’m only slightly paraphrasing, “You all thought I was crazy, but I proved you wrong”. Arrrgggghh! I strapped in, I thought we were in for a bumpy ride. You can’t tell the jury they’re wrong and then expect their vote! Then she went on to tell them what they should have done once the merge happened. Holy shit! First you tell them they’re wrong, then you tell them what they should have done?!?!?! This was not a good start. Fortunately, she redeemed herself with some articulate answers where she owned her game. It was great for her to come in with some facts and figures too. That she had seen twenty tribals, and knew who was going home in each of them. I won’t fact check that myself, hopefully someone can confirm in the comments. Regardless, to me and it seemed to jury members also, evidence is always better than cliches and platitudes, which Lee predictably spouted. There were many fantastic moments in this tribal. Too many classic lines to mention. I have to mention a few that really stood out for me though. Lee’s “comfort spoons”; JL’s “Nice to meet you”; as anticipated Sam’s sentences didn’t make sense, he shouldn’t try and use words that are bigger than his name. As expected, this was the Nick show though. So many corkers, from “manly things” and “balls to the wall”, to the “magic land” and “lieutenant Lee of the morality police”. (To be fair to Lee, he responded pretty well to this. Wisely, neither Kristie nor Lee were ever drawn in to an argument. I can’t think of a time where a Survivor argued with a jury member and still got their vote). Even Lee’s son, Jake, got a nice line in about “Obi Wan KenobLee” (okay i just bastardised the words of an eight year old for my own amusement, don’t go all morality police on me). Speaking of kids, this is the moment I lost my shit. When those boys saw their dad for the first time in over 55 days, the floodgates opened. If anything were a tsunami this episode, it were my tears on the couch. I bawled like a fucking baby. Then Kristie won in a landslide, and I smiled through the tears.

And that’s as good a place as any to end the analysis of the season. Just as it started, bawling like a baby when I was informed my application to play wasn’t accepted. Speaking of looking back, what I’m going to do now is to relive the past three months, and go back and read the journey. You might like to join me here.

I got nothing else for you. You can head home.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 25 – ‘I Owe You a Big One’ OR ‘Pulling It Off and Winning a Necklace’

If you’re yet to read the analysis of the previous episode, I’ll throw you a lifeline, you can check it out here.

The threesome is finally here. Unfortunately for Kristie, she is no longer in the middle with room to move. She’s not the meat in that sandwich. Instead, she’s more like banana at a bread party. There’s a possibility she’ll be invited to play, but chances are slim to bubkas. Particularly now that she no longer has the peanut butter that is Flick. Time to turn this discussion into a chicken carcass and break it down.

How to Make a Jury Cringe 101

Move along, nothing to see here. Kristie made the move that we all suspected she would, now in order for her to make it to final two she has to win immunity. This was a stupid move. Not because I don’t think that she can beat Lee or El. I’ve said multiple times that if she makes the final two she will beat both Lee and El. But the way that it played out at tribal, it was clear that she wasn’t going home. It was also made very clear in the tribal that El and Lee would take each other to final two should either of them win immunity. So had she sent a vote towards Lee then she remains safe and in the top three, and potentially faces Flick in the final three. Arguably this would give her a much better shot of making it to the final two. I have to give her credit for the way that she backs herself though. It’s inspiring to see her grab the bull by the douchebags and commit herself to going toe to toe against Lee and El. She has to, the reality is I see no situation where she can make final two without winning immunity, and I won’t even take the time to entertain such possibilities, it would be an exercise in futility. What I can do though is consider how she might address the jury should she beat the odds and win immunity.

Much like the pole that one has to fashion at immunity challenge, even if one’s game is long enough, if it’s not strong enough at the end, or you don’t have a hook, you don’t get the key to the prize. So what is Kristie’s story and is it strong enough? How did she get here, does she have a hook? Kristie has told us many times in the past that she is a floater. The problem with that word is that it devalues the decisions that she has made. The word floater suggests that she let others make the decisions for her. This may be the case but you don’t want the jury to think this. She has said she has played an independent game. The word ‘independent’ can be taken a couple of ways. It could be said that she didn’t listen to peoples advice or that she hasn’t had the help of others. The reality is that she has had the help of others. A lot of help and a lot of luck. If I were her I would be playing up the fact that she made decisions, tough decisions, at every step of the game to get herself further. That these were smart decisions and the proof is in the pudding. She also needs to accept that there were people that helped her, and that she milked those opportunities for all that they were worth. If it were anyone else but Kristie in this situation, I would advise that she talk up her social game, and argue that this was the reason the opportunities came her way. Alas, for Kristie, social skills probably aren’t her strong suit, certainly not from what we’ve seen. This was evidenced by her being voted least popular at final six. So such a play I’m sure would be met by the jury with laughter. In terms of a hook, unfortunately for K, the move that she made against Phoebe was arguably her biggest, but the only person on the Jury who saw it and saw how big a move it was is Sue. There’s no harm in using it as an example anyway, if you’ve got it flaunt it. I can’t think of any other moves she has in her story that she can use. If there’s something you think I’m missing please let me know in the comments.

‘El Yeah

***I’ll let you insert your own caption here…***

Another person I have to give credit to tonight is (I can’t believe I’m writing this…) El. Only because she actually had a thought. It was a good thought. It was such a good thought that even I had not thought about it. The thought was that if she and Lee kept Flick in the game, then she would go to final two regardless of who wins immunity in the final episode. Obviously if she wins immunity she goes, if Lee wins he takes her, and if Flick wins she takes her. Once she had this thought however she didn’t act on it. I suspect because Lee could see that it was risky for him and he convinced El that they should target Flick. Unfortunately for El, Flick is also the only person that she could possibly beat (if Brooke votes against Flick, check out the numbers here). So tonight she missed her only opportunity at winning the game. Her other option tonight was to vote against Lee. I suspect if she had done this, she would not lose Lee’s jury vote. Furthermore had she done this, having made such a big move may have actually moved her up a few pegs in the minds of the jury. Unfortunately, for us the viewers and for her, she didn’t go there, and we’ll never know how that scenario could have played out. As much as I’d love to talk about how El can and should address the jury… I’m sorry I couldn’t type that with a straight face…

Closing Arguments

What will Lee have to say should he make it to the final two? I expect that he will probably get some questions from Nick, JL, Matt and Brooke about his strategy. He’s argued for some time that he is strategic. That his strategy was to find a strong alliance and try not to piss anyone off. Though that’s a fair answer, I doubt that will satisfy the jury. Sam could also have a go at him about turning on him. His initial reaction to that might be to argue that he was just getting Sam before Sam got him. And it’s a fair argument to make. I think the best way though to actually counter this question is with humility. Sam will want to hear how hard it was for Lee to do that to his mate, and how ultimately he saw Sam as a threat. I think Sam will respect that and it may earn Lee his vote. He needs to play up the moves that he made, and the things he achieved. He was a challenge beast. And when it came down to it, he was the one who was able to convince Kristie to vote his way. In this respect, his actions completely impacted the game. He would not have had the ability to do that had he not made such a strong connection with Kristie. These are all solid arguments for him, but to be honest, they’re all moot points. The reality is that Lee will stick to the standard post match cliches. Tell us how he gave 110%. I bet ten dollars he says “full credit to Kristie/El”. We’re going to get nothing of substance from him.

I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’

Given the Flick (oh shit…)

***“What’s that smell?…oh, desperation…”***

So sad to see Flick go tonight, she was the last remaining tactician and has been for some time. She did everything she could this episode to stay. She tried every possible angle tonight. She pushed hard in the challenge. She puckered up and kissed some arse, (no wonder she smelt like “stinky colon”). She tried to convince Kristie on a rational level. Regrettably Kristie decided to go another way. The only thing that might have changed tonight’s outcome is if somehow she had established the type of bond with Kristie that Lee has. I guess since the merge happened, she did not suspect that she would end up in a situation where she needed Kristie’s trust, and didn’t foster a relationship with her, at least not one that we saw. Even if she didn’t think Kristie would make it this far, she should have (and to be fair I’m sure she did) at least fostered the relationship in the hope that she would earn Kristie’s vote. Live and learn I suppose. Take this as a cautionary tale. Foster those relationships, no matter how much you think you wont need them. And DON’T TELL SOMEBODY THAT THEY’RE LEAVING!
Until tomorrow night’s finale, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 26 Finale analysis here!

Episode 21 – ‘I’m a Believe-her’ OR ‘Last Train to Brookesville’

If you were blindsided by what happened tonight, it’s because you haven’t been playing along. Check out my analysis of the previous episode here.

Huzzah! We have some gameplay! The Brick has finally split in two, and it happened from within. Big ups to Flick for getting rid of the one person that nobody could beat in a final two (that breakdown is here). After the last episode I suggested that Lee and El be broken up first, so I’m a little disappointed that Flick didn’t listen. Regardless, let’s eat the dog and discuss whether this was the best move for the guys tonight.

Flick Flop

**Our puppet-master pulls all of the strings and doesn’t even need to be there…**

Well done Flick. You recognised that Brooke was a threat to your game long term and you made moves to disable the threat. Textbook play too. I am a little worried that it may have been one move too early as Lee and El now still hold the power among the remaining players, and Lee holds an advantage. Though to be fair, had she waited one more tribal then it is likely that Brooke might have made the same play against Flick. Now that would have really been a world war three to behold. Let’s think it through. If El had gone, then that would leave Brooke, Kristie, Matt, Sam, Flick, and Lee. Lee would likely then approach Sam as his next closest alliance, and at this stage it does not look as though Sam is going to turn on Brooke. Giving Brooke the numbers to take out Flick. Ok, Flick IS smarter than I am. Now was the time to take out Brooke. Does this leave a target on her back? Potentially, but she’s done all that she can do to mitigate that in allowing El to come up with Brooke’s name (that was nice). She might now be able to sit back and make it look like this was El’s move and let her take the heat. That would be a fine line to walk there, to get the balance right between having El take the blame for the move in-game, but still be able to take the credit for it with the jury. The other thing to think about is Lee’s advantage. Does she know what Lee’s advantage is? If so I’m wondering if it would have been smart to try and influence him to use that tonight so that he could not use that against her next tribal. I’m not convinced that Lee and/or El would try to move against Flick now. If that’s the case then you want Lee to keep it this tribal so that you definitely have the numbers in a six person tribal. Turning six votes into five and avoiding a tie scenario. So who does Flick need to take out next?

To get through the next tribal I would say Sam. Play up that Sam was going to vote against Lee and keep Lee motivated to take him out. However, Sam is one of the few people that Flick can beat in a final two. Lee and El are the two people who likely could definitely beat her. I would even go as far as saying it’s becoming increasingly likely Kristie could beat her too. So you might want to keep Sam around. So the best move for Flick would be to try and break up Lee and El next. If Lee and El make it to final five and Lee still has his advantage (the last time it can be used is final five), then they pretty much have the game wrapped up. One of them would likely make it to final two and would be very hard to beat. Therefore what Flick needs to do, is appeal to Matt and Sam, tell her why she felt it had to be done, that Brooke was a threat who could not have been beaten, that the next threats are Lee and El and they have to stay together to take them out next, all the while pretending that she is still with Lee and El. Unfortunately this would mean that she would have to rely heavily on Kristie to flip on Lee and El.

Still Floating or Dropping Anchor?

***“Maybe if I keep my mouth shut they’ll forget I’m here and won’t vote for me…”***

We saw some nice play from Kristie tonight. Firstly, we’ve been shown a few times over the last couple of episodes that she has actually made some social connections with people. She’s had lots of little interactions around camp that tells us she might not be as much on the periphery as we assume. Two big chats with Lee, high-fiving Matt, water walks with Brooke. She’s clearly still keeping her finger in some pies. She’s also showed us how her mind works when she was determining what Flick’s motivations would be in coming to El about flipping. That was really good to see. But where to from here for her. She’s said all along and she reiterated again tonight that she has played an individual game, and it’s worked well for her so far. It has her in a pretty good position now. She can choose whether to stick with El and Lee, or to move elsewhere. Given that El and Lee are the biggest threat in the game right now, my gut reaction is to break them up. Kristie’s other threat however is Flick. If you’re Kristie, ideally you want to go to the end with Sam or Matt. If you’re Lee and El, you’d probably also prefer to go to the end with Sam or Matt, and not Kristie. Alright, I’ve just convinced myself, the best move for Kristie now is to break up Lee and El, then work on convincing both Sam and Matt that they could never beat Flick in a final two and hope that the final immunity challenge falls your way. This path is a definite possibility, she has a reasonable shot of winning this game now, she just needs to listen to me. My commission is just a fraction of the prize money. That fraction is 499/500ths. With flexibility as Kristie’s arguably greatest asset, is she actually now a threat?

Aganoa, noa, noa. Push pineapple. Shake the tree.

***“Lee, there are no ‘big’ blindsides and ‘small’ blindsides there are just blindsides”***

I’ve spoken a lot about how others need to take out Lee and El for the best shot at winning, so what can Lee and El do to make it through this barrage of attacks. Let’s talk advantage first. Obviously, the advantage is more powerful the longer you hold on to it. If they can use it at final five rather than final six then they have a better shot of making it to final two. So they need to find a way to get through the next tribal without using it. To have a majority they need two more. Though I have absolutely no idea where Sam’s head is at after that “big” blindside, I’m going to presume that Lee could spoon him back into an alliance. If they still have Kristie with them then they have the four needed to vote out Flick (provided Flick doesn’t win immunity). The other option, and the one that is perhaps a little more dangerous, is to turn on Kristie. If they can recognise that a) Kristie is someone that the three others could want to take to the end, and b) her flexibility makes her both unpredictable and a threat, then they could possibly form a bipartisan alliance to vote out Kristie. Then once she’s gone Lee still has the advantage to move against Flick.

If he has Sam at that point he may not even need it. If he doesn’t have Sam then the least that the advantage can do is cause a tie scenario, which is better than going home outright. Is there any value in Lee or El voting out the other now? Firstly, I don’t think they will just because they have been very tight all the way through. Secondly, as each of them are such big threats to everyone else, they need to keep each other around to a) have stronger numbers and b) have a meat shield, someone else who could be perceived as a bigger threat. If we end up with Lee and El in the final two I would be very disappointed, but it is a distinct possibility. That leaves Matt and Sam for us to ponder on.

TimTam Sam and Milk ArrowMatt (if you’ve got a better biscuit reference to apply to Matt I’m all ears)

***“How did the rabbit get into the hat?…”***

Sam, Sam, Sam…. Brooke handed you a big move on a silver platter. As she was telling you that it was time to make a big move and break up Lee and El all I heard her say was “Sam, here’s my trust, you need to get out a big player, I’m never going to see it coming, here’s your chance, talk to your buddy Lee and you can have me out of the game. Or Flick if you prefer, it’s totally your choice”. Oh well. I guess what I heard was not what Sam heard. Regardless, result is the same, other than Sam had nothing to do with it and missed a chance at a move and feels on the outs. I have no idea how Sam and Matt are going to react to this blindside. As much as Matt thought that Flick and Brooke were the angels to his Charlie, we all knew the opposite was true. Sam and Matt were the Rocksteady and Bebop to Brick’s Krang. Brick was the brains and they were the meat that did the brain’s bidding. I mentioned above that I think that it is still possible for Flick to salvage an alliance with Sam and Matt, and to be honest, that is probably the best thing for those guys to do. Given the best shot that Sam, Matt and Kristie have in a final two is against each other, the move for Sam and Matt now is to stick with Flick and break up Lee and El, then take out Flick and fight it out amongst themselves for a final two. Hope you’re listening boys. I don’t want to see Lee or El in the final two.

Bye Bye Brooke

Sorry to see you go Brooke. You played an incredible game. Unfortunately when you play so well it makes you a huge threat and it was only a matter of time before somebody tried to neutralise you. I don’t think there was much you could do about it short of winning immunity. It seemed that you had some misgivings or uncertainty about Flick in this episode, as though you felt that she may have been doing something shady. It did seem in Flick’s conversations with both Brooke one on one and when she was talking to the original Pu-ans that she was hiding something, but I may just have been thinking that because I knew that she was. I would have thought that Matt would pick up on that. Perhaps if you guys had these misgivings about Flick then you could have had a chat to Kristie to see if she would give anything away. I think that you thought you had it wrapped up and didn’t need to. Anyway, we’ll miss you. Your probably played the smartest game out there, shame that it had to come to an end. I also never get to use ‘Brick’ again. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

Brick.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 22 analysis here!

Episode 20 – ‘Reunited and it Feels So Good’ OR ‘Let’s Stay Together’

Before I get into discussion about tonight’s episode, there’s something I need to discuss. Some of you may have read stories in the mainstream or social media about Brooke, Flick and El receiving threats and abuse. You may even have come across some of this abuse yourself. My first reaction upon reading that this has occurred was to defend the trio and their actions and the way they’ve played the game. But that bullshit is not really what the problem is here. The problem here is not what they’ve done, or how it may have been perceived by some, or if the editing is to blame. So my response is not to defend the women, but to condemn the dickheads out there that do this shit. This sort of abuse is NEVER appropriate. Now I know that across the fifty odd thousand words I’ve written about this season so far I’ve made my fair share of judgements about our contestants, but this shit is on another level. Anyone who hurls this type of abhorrent, disrespectful, despicable and downright vile trash at people, particularly women, is a fucking tool. Especially if done via the relative anonymity of the internet. Go fuck yourself wankers, #IStandWithFlickBrookeandEl.

If you’re yet to read my analysis of the last episode, there’s no need to be disappointed in yourself like Lee, you can catch up here.

I’m sure you’re just as disappointed in how this episode played out as I am so I won’t spend any more time bitching about how boring it was, and how boring our top seven are. Instead let’s be positive and look to the future and where we think each of our seven need to position themselves to make it to the end.

Scary Thoughts

Tonight saw many of our players finally come to the realisation that winning the game will require you to eventually vote out a friend. We even saw a number of them start thinking about who they might take to the end with them. With that in mind, I thought I might break down who each of the remaining seven can beat in the final two. Let’s check it out.

El can beat – Matt, Kristie, Sam, possibly Lee and Flick
Lee – Everyone except maybe Brooke (depending on the mood of the jury)
Flick – Sam, Matt, Kristie
Kristie – probably only Sam
Sam – Possibly Kristie but I don’t like his chances
Matt – Sam, Kristie, possibly Flick and El
Brooke – everyone except JL and maybe Lee

That is an interesting exercise. If you disagree with my assessments, let me know what you think in the comments below. Now let’s see how each player can use this info.

El and back

There’s a few people that El can beat if she gets there. Given that she can beat most people except Brooke, and Lee and Flick could still maybe beat her, then now is the time to grab Lee, scoop up Kristie and then find one more to smash the Brick. Who will that one be though, Sam or Matt? It seems at this stage there is absolutely no convincing Matt to split with Brick so that leaves Sam. I feel from what we’ve seen of Sam it’s not outside the realms of possibility that he could flip if Lee can show him how manipulative Brick has been.

Taking the LEEd?

Depending on how he gets there, the only person that Lee could not beat in a final two is possibly Brooke, and Brooke might only beat him if the jury respects manipulative gameplay. If the jury votes on sportsmanship or dare I say ‘mateship’ then Lee wins. He has done nothing wrong (so far), he just also hasn’t done anything very right.

FLICK OFF!

Flick is a hard one to judge. She has played a better game than Lee and El, but just doesn’t seem as likeable as they are. She comes across to the audience as cold-blooded, but I’m not sure she comes across that way to those on island. She has been able to influence others so we know she has social skills. The times when she has come across as cutting or cold about anyone have only been pieces to camera or discussions with Brooke. Her move is the same move I discussed last week. Get rid of Lee and El with her current alliance, then use others to move against Brooke (easier said than done). Then all she needs to do is beat those other losers to final two.

Kristie

Oh Kristie, doesn’t look like you’re in a good position here. The only person I believe you can beat in a final two is Sam, and there is still a possibity he could beat you. How to get there though? Seeing as Lee and El need you to take out Brick, I guess you need to side with them first. You’ll need to bring scamming Sam with you to do that. Then once Brooke and maybe Flick are gone you can use Matt to take out Lee and El, leaving you with Matt and Sam in a final three. Then you just need to make sure the final immunity challenge goes your way. You’ll then need to put in a solid enough performance at the final tribal, the one where the jury questions you. If you can string a sentence together and use some big words, then Sam shouldn’t be able to beat you unless the jury either really just doesn’t like you or really does like Sam.

Scamming Sam

*“It’s hard, hard, hard….pop me off”* Actual quote from Sam

As above only try not to say anything stupid in your final tribal. Appeal to the loyalty of your mates in Lee, Brooke, and Matt, and also talk up the times you actually tried to make a move. If you do win it will be by a whisker as there is no way Nick, JL or Sue are giving you their vote.

Magic Matt

As above with Sam and Kristie, if you go against either of those then you should take the win. Just do what I say and you’ll get there. I mentioned that you could possibly beat Flick or El, so you’ve got options. It may be harder to get there with Flick or El too and a lot more work to beat them. You’re best move for now I’m afraid is to flip on Brick, because the longer they stay the less likely you’ll make it to a final two unless you are their goat. You wouldn’t be my first pick for goat though. That honour goes to Sam. So that is a risky play. You need to lay low and see what happens this coming tribal. If you don’t make any sudden movements your head should not be on the chopping block. Once either Brick or Lee and El are broken up the way ahead should be a little clearer.

Brookie has the odds

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At this stage it’s Brooke’s game to lose. The only person that can beat her is Lee and even that depends on a jury that favours mateship and loyalty over strategy. As the person who is most likely to win however, she now has a huge target on her back. If she can keep her core four together, and somehow make it look like Flick is the bigger threat that may keep some heat off her. Also time to start a sub-alliance with Matt and Sam, let them know you’ll take them both to the final three if they can vote out Flick. You just then need to hope that you win the final immunity challenge. If the others are smart, they won’t take you to final to with them. If they do then it is a testament to your incredible social skills.

You Say Goodbye. I JL, oh…

You may have noticed that I put JL into Brooke’s list of who she can beat. This is because I wanted to talk about tonight’s move. The popular opinion, at least in the pies my finger is in, is that JL should have been kept as a number for flippers. While I would have loved to have seen JL stay as she is much more entertaining and prone to big moves than our remaining Survivors, as she is one of the few that could have beaten Brooke (if the jury respects an underdog story and a maker of big moves) it made perfect sense for Brooke to get rid of her now. Flick as well. They can clearly see that if they had kept her around, she would have been a number that any of the others could use to break up Brick and the core four. Had she been given a sniff I suspect that she would have kept playing hard right to the end. Unfortunately, things did not work out for her tonight. You may remember that in my analysis of the previous episode I was sure that tonight was going to be the night that JL would finally be used to smash the alliance. All she needed to do was sit back and let the others come to her. Matt and Sam think they are tight with Brick and Lee and El have realised much too late that to have any shot of winning they too need to do something about Brick. It’s a real shame. All of this is again testament to the quality of Brick’s game. Everyone thinks they are safe with Brick. Idiots.

Bonus Round

I also need to point out that I didn’t mention Lee’s advantage in the above. It hasn’t been spoken of on screen for a long time. I can’t remember the last time someone mentioned it. I assume that people still realise that he has it, but I have no idea if anybody other than Lee knows what the advantage actually is. Obviously, with it, Lee can really shift the game in his favour. If he’ smart, he’ll realise that next tribal is the time to use it, so that he can break up the core four. If he’s not smart, it may be too late and he could go home with an advantage in his pocket. My guess as to what will actually happen is he’ll win the next immunity, not think to use it, then use it later and it won’t actually change things for him at all. Time will tell. Until next episode, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 21 analysis here!

Episode 19 – ‘Blockheads’ OR ‘Literally(?) Shot Like Sitting Ducks’

If you’re yet to read my analysis of the previous episode, you can do so here.

Seriously?! This is how we are going to move into the top eight? We’re forty odd days into the game, our final nine, and people are still saying “I definitely feel like this person is someone I can work with”!? And again no one looking for a clue at the reward challenge?! This is a very different season of Survivor to the ones I am used to. As a fan, I have found the last two episodes particularly disappointing. If you’ve been reading along at home then you’ll know how much I was looking forward to these last two episodes assuming that we would start seeing some big moves. Instead we saw safe, boring and dare I say stupid gameplay result in the episode ending with a floater left in the bowl that is our top eight.

“Yeah, but”

***Little known fact: Rodin’s original concept for his sculpture ‘The Thinker’ was based on Sam.***

Yes, I am aware I sound like I’m whingeing. It’s really infuriating to watch Matt and Sam be so oblivious to what is actually going on. In Matt’s defense, he’s sticking to what he believes is a solid alliance. It’s not his fault that we the audience see that he’s not in the alliance, and he’s not in on the trick. That’s what makes it frustrating for us fans. It’s possible that if we didn’t know that his alliance wasn’t strong, it wouldn’t be so frustrating for us. I actually feel sorry for Matt. Perhaps I shouldn’t, he is playing Survivor and I’m not. He may even win for all we know. But surely it can’t be easy for him to watch this now, after believing that Brick are his ‘devils’, now knowing that he’s being played. Anyway, you gotta play the hand you’re dealt, I just didn’t think that this is the way that Matt would play it. He’s not responsible for my expectations. I also have to give credit to Brick here. Given all that’s been said to Matt, they have still managed to convince him that he’s with them. Sam on the other hand has done nothing to endear himself to me, though I’m sure he is a viewer favourite. For me, I want to at least see some strategy and some understanding of how the game works. “Yeah, but…” is how he replied upon hearing Sue and JL tell him that he could only make it so far while he let Brick control the game. What sort of a response is that?! He did at least give us the second funniest moment of the episode, when during tribal he said, and I’m paraphrasing here, “I’m still here because I’m more cleverer than you guys”. The funniest moment of course was when the top seven were having a swim and talking about how Sue was the vote and Matt asks if they need to split the votes, but nobody can respond because Kristie is there with them. Then people start pointing at Kristie behind her back, and Matt points in return, Kristie turns around and Matt has to do something with his hands so he runs his fingers through his hair. That was gold. It’s a sad reflection of the quality of gameplay on show this episode when that humorous moment is what I am spending my time reflecting on. The only gameplay I feel like we saw came from JL, and a little bit from Sue.

She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone…She’s Still Here

At least JL knew that tonight was the night to make a move. In the previous episode we saw her chatting with Matt after Nick had called out that he was oblivious to what was going on and at that point Matt agreed that there was “a lot of truth in that”. So it was not a surprise that she tried to get in his ear again today. Though her claim that she needed to talk to him ‘for his benefit’ was more than a little disingenuous, at least it got them talking. Matt however would not be swayed. We saw JL and Sue try and sway Sam, yeah, but, that didn’t work. She tries a word in Kristie’s ear. Kristie basically just smiled and nodded. JL even tried to get Flick to expose her crack. Not to mention the things that she had to say at tribal after getting her mongrel on to win immunity. As JL was spraying what she was saying I was actually thinking that she needed to go further in calling out the dynamics. She needed to push Brick to have them say exactly what the pecking order was, in much the same way that Kate spelled it out to Sam and Lee. No sooner had I thought that when Sue took my thought and JL’s lead and ran with it, calling out the bonds more explicitly and putting Brick on the back foot (who actually handled it pretty well I think). We also saw Sue come up with the idea to write Kristie’s name down. Even though had it worked it may have only got her through one more vote, I thought this was some nifty parallel thinking. It was unfortunate that it didn’t work for her. While we’re on Sue, I know I said she did some good things tonight, and I said similar things about her last night. Unfortunately tonight she also showed why it was she didn’t make it further in this game. She may not be naive, sweetheart, but she also didn’t play particularly strategically. Last night we saw Flick come to her to try and get her on side, I suggested Sue leverage this last night, but she didn’t listen (why don’t these people read my advice between tribals?! Honestly). So, there’s that, but also tonight we didn’t really see her talking to anyone other than JL. She just lay down and crossed her fingers. There was no attempt at scrambling (admittedly she hadn’t laid any groundwork that she could scramble with but at least try). So, naive she may not be, but her sharpness and observance was not enough to grant her the title of survivor when it has no action behind it. I’m sad to see you go Sue, but it takes more than that (says I, worried that friggin Lee will win).

Methinks the Lady doth not Protest Enough

So what does this actually leave JL with? Well, viewers less well-versed in Survivor might say that JL has completely burned her bridges. If she doesn’t win immunity next episode she will be given her marching orders. I tend to disagree, I don’t think its a foregone conclusion at all. We did see Phoebs coast through a couple of tribals when it looked like all was lost for her, simply because people were scared of bigger threats. And though I do wish JL had called out even more at tribal, what she did say may just be enough to put some fright into people. Sammy we know can be flighty, it’s possible that he has taken some of what was said tonight seriously, and realises that if he allows BrickEl to continue he’s out. El herself may actually feel somewhat insecure that she is tied to what is now clearly a target and choose to distance herself from them and start to play her own game. Lee may think… that would be a good start for him. What Kristie plans to do though is anyone’s guess. You can only float for so long before you need to start making moves to climb out of the bowl or you’re going to be flushed. I’m having a good think about the best move for her and she’s got lots of options. If the status quo remains with the top five staying tight then her only move is to wait for the flush. Given all of the explicit attempts that we’ve seen to break that top five, I’m actually beginning to think it may not be possible to create your own crack. If this is the case the best bet for her, and JL and Matt for that matter, is actually to wait and hope that some of what JL has said has stuck, and that one of those top five feels as though it’s time for them to make a move against their alliance before the move is made against them first. I feel that JL, Matt and Kristie are not going to get anywhere by explicitly pushing a move between now and next tribal. They need to sit back, maybe, ever so subtly drop a few hints about the five needing to turn on each other soon, and then sit back and wait for someone to come to them. In fact I would argue that if you were one of the top five and you did want to make a move, next vote is the time to do it. You’ve got three numbers on the periphery that you could use. Wait any longer and you either won’t have those numbers there, or someone else will strike first.

Devils Between My Toes

I assume that Brooke feels that taking Flick to final two is her best move. I would agree with my assumption of what she feels. I do imagine though that it is possible that she may be having doubts in her alliance given all the shade that has been thrown their way lately. Is it possible that Flick could be hoping to throw Brooke under the balls before she gets to the final two and take Sammy or Lee, or even JL or Kristie with her? If I were Flick I certainly wouldn’t be taking Brooke to the final two with me. There’s no winning against Brooke. Maybe, just maybe JL has a shot of winning against Brooke if she continues to dominate challenges and make some moves on her way there. I can’t see anyone else beating Brooke in the final two. So Flick needs to find a way to remove Brooke from the final two. The bind for her is that the best way for her to get there is for Brooke to take her. It’s a catch 22. Brooke wants Flick in final two with her, Flick doesn’t want Brooke there. If Flick votes Brooke out too early she’ll never make it there. The ideal scenario for Flick is that she and Brooke make it to final three, and Brooke doesn’t win immunity, with the winner voting Brooke out. And I feel like there’s plenty of people that Flick could beat in a final two. The ideal scenario for Brooke is that she and Flick make it to final three and Brooke wins immunity and has her choice of who she takes to the final two with her, likely beating whomever that might be (except maybe JL). Regardless, the best move for Brick is to stay together. As I mentioned above though, El may have other plans.

Flippin’ ‘El

***El takes a good hard look at the pecking order…***

So does that mean that the best move for El now is to flip on Brick? Yes, I think it is. There are enough people that want Brick smashed, and El seems to have good relationships with Lee and Kristie. So most definitely, now is the time to strike. El has a much better shot of beating Kristie, Sam or Lee in the final two than she does either of Brick. If she doesn’t strike now then she may miss her shot and then have to hope that some immunity wins go her way.

So, there’s potentially some pretty decent gameplay ahead of us. That’s not even mentioning that Lee still has an advantage in the game, that could totally change everything I’ve just suggested to our top eight. Just please please please do what I say Survivors! Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 20 analysis here!

Episode 18 – ‘Get You Out of My Head’ OR ‘Gone a Night Like This’

If you want to read about how we got to our top ten before settling in for the ride, do so here.

Well that was a huge let down. After where we left our Survivors last week, with ten of them, tonight was the night to flip the numbers against Brick and El, obviously nobody has been reading my advice, idiots. And all the pre-show hype was about Sue’s big move. Which one was that again? We found out tonight that JL hasn’t lost her voice and does actually talk (yay). Hopefully this is the start of an upwards arc for her. Also tonight what could have been an interesting twist, seemed like it didn’t actually change a thing in the game. So grab your pole and smash your balls, let’s do this.

Exile Beach, Far Away in Time

***A split in the tribe? Nah not really***

When it was revealed that the challenges bottom four would be sent to Exile Beach, I was not sure whether I liked that twist. I felt it would totally hamstring the players and not allow them to play the game the way that it is ‘meant’ to be played, taking away from those on the periphery any hope of forming a coup against those at the apex of the pyramid. Also with a number of the voting blocks unable to have the ability to come to agreement on their way to tribal, I assumed it would mean that we see tonight’s votes smattered across at least three people. How wrong I was. When we found out that there was an idol on the beach, I was a little more enthusiastic about the twist. Another idol in play is just what was needed to shake this game up, particularly in the hands of Matt or Sue. Flick went and dashed those hopes by insisting that no one look for the idol. Don’t get me wrong, this was a great play on her part. She’s said all along that she needs to be in control, and if there’s an idol out there she loses that control. An idol in the wrong hands would totally ruin her game, and its her game to lose given the tightness of Brick and El. It was disappointing to see Matt, Lee and Sue, just roll over on that and let Flick have her way. I understand that Lee doesn’t know any better, but Matt at least should be looking for that thing. If that puts a target on his back, it doesn’t matter for this vote as he has an idol. Moving to nine players after this episode you need to be on the side of five. The best shot you were going to have to break the BrickEl trio, was tonight, or next time if you’ve got an idol. Flick also has to get some credit for taking the time to talk to Lee and Matt while on Exile Beach, and try and at least calm them and reassure them that they were still in the top five alliance. She also did some spadework on Sue, though that was less successful (more on that later). Regardless, somehow everyone knew that the vote was heading for Kylie. I’m not sure whether this was the best move, or even how it shook down that way.

With a little understanding, you can find the perfect blend

: The closest Kylie came to an all-female alliance…

Is it better to keep Kylie in the mix or to cut her off now? Let’s see this vote from Brick’s perspective as they seemed to call that shot, and weigh the pros against the cons. Pros of keeping; she’s not going to vote against you; will let you know if someone comes to her to looking to flip; she’s unlikely to receive Jury votes; gives you the opportunity to remove Matt, Kristie or Sue from the game. Cons, strong in challenges; maybe Lee will suspect he’s not with you guys; if JL and Kylie are a voting block that may flip on BrickEl, prevents that from happening (big ‘if’ that we’ve no evidence for). Is that all for cons? I can’t see any others. In that case, it wasn’t the smartest move to get her out. Again without the ability to consult with everyone in your alliance, maybe it was best just to go with the easy vote. Though I do suspect that Kylie was always going to be the vote regardless of Exile Beach twist as we saw during the challenge a number of ladies say to each other, and to Sam, that it was imperative not to let Kylie win. This move however isn’t that bad for Sue, Kristie or Matt. This at least gives them one less number to go up against if they decide to aim for Brick. So what can they do to make the most of Kylie going?

Up Against a Brick Wall

***The front of the line, the apex of the pyramid, the angels of the Charlie***

I’m building the pyramid in my head as I type to try and figure out where everyone stands. If I presume that Sue, Matt and Kristie are the bottom three and the only way any of them can make it to top three is to break the Brick in two, how can they do it? El, is tight with Brick. Lee seems to be the same as he doesn’t know any better. That then leaves JL and Sam to play with. That’s a five if they can get it together. From what we’ve seen of the next episode it seems that JL is ready to make this happen. Who knows where Sam stands? Again he showed that he is really not connected to Brick as he voted Sue. He didn’t know that the real target was Kylie. Maybe this is the catalyst that is needed for him to realise that he’s not in their gang. It’s only going to take a whisper from Matt for Sam to see that Brick is a snake, and it’s head needs to be chopped off. The head of course being Brooke. Hopefully Sam could then shut his trap enough not to fill Lee in on this as it’s possible that Lee would talk to El or Flick and give them the heads up. If ever there was a last chance for the bottom three, and even the middle three (Sam, Lee and JL) to flip it, now is the chance. If you let Brick and El remain to the final eight, it is going to require a lot of luck and for immunity wins to go your way to have a shot at the top three. I have to acknowledge at this point that it’s possible that my vision could be clouded by my dislike for Brick, perhaps it’s actually better for one or more of the bottom three to keep Brick there. I really can’t see it though. If you do, please let me know in the comments below.

El’s Belles

I also have to acknowledge that I’ve made a presumption that El wants to go to final three with Brick. It’s possible that her plan is to flip on them as we get closer to the end. For her sake I hope so. If she were to make it to final three with them, even if she wins the last immunity, that puts her up against either Brooke or Flick in the final two. Having not actually made any moves so far, it is incredibly unlikely that she would be beat Brooke, who not only has called the shots but seems to have formed pretty good personal relationships with most people who would be on the jury. It’s possible, but I would still say unlikely that she would beat Flick. Flick may receive more animosity from the jury, but she has still played the game hard and the jury may respect that. Both of these scenarios likely result in an El loss, so her best bet is to flip on Brick at some stage. Final five is that time though, not now. If she were to flip now she loses the security of that alliance and could easily find herself without any other security to hang on or and therefore easy pickings. Yeah, she needs to flip at five to have a shot at winning the game. I can’t wait to see what happens when the top three start to realise that they’re going to need to turn on each other soon. Particularly Flick. Flick can’t win if Brooke’s there, I hope for her sake she realises this before Brooke does.

A Perfect Fit

Although we didn’t see the big move from Sue we were promised tonight, before I wrap this up I do have to give her some credit. When approached by Flick (incidentally that scene was, to quote Flick herself I believe, “awkward as” for Flick, watch it again here), Sue realised Flick was blowing smoke up her arse. And whether it was by accident or design, her response to Flick was “my ambition is to make it to top six” was genius. That is, I would imagine, exactly what Flick wants to hear. Again, whether by accident or design, her vote for Kylie may have helped to solidify Flick’s impression of her loyalty. Sue needs to spend the next two days subtly reassuring Flick that she will vote with Flick to the top six, so it is less likely that Flick will see the vote coming against Brick.

If all goes as predicted, tomorrow night could be a great episode. Unfortunately it could also be another boring episode of The Brick Show. Guess we’ll find out soon enough. Until then, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 19 analysis here!

Episode 1 – ‘Gen X-Wings vs Millennial Falcons’ OR ‘It’s a TARP!’

SPOILER ALERT! The discussion below contains spoilers of season 33 episode 1.

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Welcome to the 33rd seasons of Survivor US, also known simply as Survivor. We have two tribes Vanua (Millennials) and Takuli (Gen – X). Though I think production may be playing a little fast and loose with their tribe definitions (I’d love to know the age gap between the oldest millennial and the youngest gen -x’er (someone can google that for me)) they are certainly playing any perceived differences between these arbitrary definitions for all they can. Regardless of real, imagined, or manufactured differences between these tribes, so far it looks like we’ve got some cool characters this season and at least one interesting twist ahead.

THE LEGACY ADVANTAGE DA DA DUUUMMM!!

***“Um excuse me Jeff, can we get our personal items before we evacuate, I’d hate to leave a legacy behind”***

So the legacy advantage is an unknown advantage for the holder on day 31? Did I get that right? The finder of the legacy advantage must ‘will’ it to another player should they leave the game. I couldn’t begin to speculate on what that advantage may be, the possibilities are endless. And I would argue that the fun of this particular twist is not in the revealing of the advantage, but in following its travels from person to person and seeing how they use it. It looks like we may have already seen it trying to be leveraged by Jessica (good work spotting and hiding that by the way Jessica!). Did anyone else think that when David approached her and told her that he didn’t have a hidden immunity idol that she was going to suggest pooling of advantages? Is that where we were supposed to think she was going with that? Can’t wait to see how this advantage is going to be leveraged throughout the game and if people are going to try and find sneaky ways of getting their hands on it once they know about it. The other question we have is how does the ‘willing’ work? Is that done openly so everyone now knows about the advantage and who has it? Or is it done behind the scenes? The answer to that my friends, is blowing in the wind…

Biggest Twist(er) in Survivor History

So, unless there’s something I’ve completely missed this is the first time we’ve had the game put on hold and all participants evacuated due to safety concerns. I guess it was pretty serious. I personally would have loved to have seen just where they spent the night and how that could affect the game. I’m imagining there was much debate among production about whether or not they would show that as showing it could pull the viewer out of that Survivor experience. It’s just something that happens so rarely that I’d imagine all Survivor nerds would love to see that. I do wonder if it means that the game will be a day or so longer.

Short Cut Short Cut Short Cut

Tonight we heard the phrase ‘short cut’ used more times in the space of 5 minutes than it is used in a year at the military barber. Not that I’m saying I didn’t like this facet of the challenge. In fact I really dug it. Any time that they can give the players more choices in a challenge, it instantly makes it more interesting, unless everyone makes the same choices. Thankfully in this case the tribes chose slightly different strategies, and it just gave us one more thing to talk about around the water-cooler. I’m very happy with the first immunity challenge. Takali is sent to tribal and thus continues The David Show.

Power, Wisdom, Courage, and….. OK Scrap the Wisdom

**“Kill the dorks. Bash their butts. Kick their shins**“

Before we return to The David Show, here’s a message from Nintendo. Since when can you add a fourth to your Triforce and still have a Triforce? And just how useful is a Triforce of four in a tribe of 10? Especially when you have a couple of people as sharp as Hannah (this season’s Aubry?) and Mari who can instantly recognise when they’re being left out, and who also know that this is a numbers game. And though Figgy is in with the cool kids, from what we’ve seen so far, she seems to have the nous to know when to flip out. I can’t wait to see how this particular battle plays out. Regardless, unlike the current series of Australian Survivor that I feel like has been going on for a year, our US participants hit the ground running and start trying to form alliances and voting blocks early. Millennial particularly, who have grown up with the show.

Oh Crap!

***David. Never lied about being The Outdoor Type***

Regular readers of my Australian Survivor analysis will know that this is where I like to talk through the moves that a number of players have made and what they can and should do to move ahead in the game and get to the end. As we’re only in episode one and haven’t really seen much of the tribe dynamics it’s too early to enter that discussion with any confidence. I can say, and I’m sure many of you will agree with me, that David is and will be (if he sticks around) fun to watch. I wasn’t sure what to make of his comments at tribal when he realised that people didn’t trust him and speculated on whether he had an idol, he said something like ‘this is a test’. I’m wondering if he was referring to anything specific that perhaps Bret, Jessica and Chris had said to him. I do wonder if one or more of them set some sort of trustworthiness test, and had him vote a particular way. As skittish as the guy is, he still seemed to me to be a likeable guy, and one that could be fun to have around camp, certainly more so than Rachel (crazy eyes personified). We did get a snippet of a discussion from, I think it was Bret, Chris and Ken(?), saying that they would not tell David, CeCe, or Rachel which way they were voting. Given how paranoid he is, and without any sort of security in knowledge of where the votes might land, I’ve no doubt that if David had an idol he would have played it. Perhaps this was the aforementioned test to which David referred. By not playing an idol, those guys know that he was telling the truth when he said he didn’t have an idol, and perhaps now feel that they can trust him. That logic is a little screwy, but maybe he will pay back their trust with some loyalty and they all can live happily ever after in their rebel alliance (I know that doesn’t really work but I was already committed to the Star Wars puns so it stays). As much as I and clearly the tribe found Rachel annoying, I’m not convinced that I would have voted her over David. If David is that skittish and flighty and volatile days 1-4, are you sure you’re going to be able to reign him in over the coming 35 days so that you can solidly depend on him? He also does not seem like he’s going to be an asset in the physical challenges that is for sure. I guess it’s a credit to his self-awareness to recognise that he was coming off as paranoid and unreliable, and then have the social chops to still be able to connect with those guys enough that they at least have some degree of faith in him.

***“D’ya see that Wilson, I made fire”***

I couldn’t end this post without mentioning Zeke. What a rad dude! It was such a great moment for him when he created fire. We don’t yet know what he is going to be like gameplay wise, but certainly as far as watchability, he’s going to be very entertaining. Until next week, I got nothing else fo you, head back to camp.

Episode 17 – ‘Tea & Sympathy’ OR ‘Jury Duty’

If you are yet to read about phase 1 of Sam’s diabolical plan, you can do so here.

We have our first Jury member, and my first and only prediction thus far (that Nick would not win) has been realised. Another long, long, episode, what the hell Channel Ten? Anyhow, as much as I love ‘letters from home’, I’d prefer to discuss the strategy and gamesmanship on show tonight. So let’s get into it.

Snakes and Leaders

***“If only I hadn’t made up that fugging clue poem….”***

Goodbye Nick. For mine you were the most entertaining player this season. But boy did you have a bad shake. While I’ve thought for some time that Nick really hasn’t been very deceitful (idol clue aside), unfortunately the guy is so enthusiastic and plays the game at full tilt 100% of the time, he just comes across as devious. Clearly a very intelligent guy, I got the feeling he just wanted to share his great ideas with his tribemates. I get it Nick. I’ve been there. Everybody calls me arrogant but the truth is I just come off that way because I’m a fucking genius. You just couldn’t help yourself. I didn’t mention it in my previous post but there was a perfect example of this in last night’s episode. Nick did a piece to camera where he says, and I quote “I’m just going to blend into the background, just be a number” and literally the very next scene he tells his alliance his idea of how best to split the vote. Your enthusiasm is a curse my friend. Wannabe Survivors take this as a cautionary tale. If you’re as enthusiastic and strategic as Nick, you’re going to want to keep that in check and try, as hard as it may be, to not stand out in the crowd.

***Nick holds court in his last ever tribal, as a competitor***.

With the way Nick started the season we knew that he would not be long for this game, and I’m not sure whether there was anything he could have done to make it much further. After last night’s tribal council he did a piece to camera telling us that he had fifteen ideas of how he could get revenge for the votes that were sent his way. Revenge is something that is certainly not new to Nick, and I for one have been surprised, given the bitter things he has had to say about JL and Sue, that he actually hasn’t seemed to be gunning for them now that he’s actually had to attend tribal councils. We also saw him do a piece to camera tonight where he told us he was tossing up whether or not to just try and sure up his relationships by being nice, or whether he was going to enact his “scorched earth policy”. When it seemed that he had slept on it and chosen the former, I thought, ‘great job buddy’. He then followed that up with some really frank and genuine conversations with Sam & Lee, which I thought was brilliant. These conversations were very different to the conversations that he had with JL and Sue when they joined Saanapu. He did a great job of showing himself as a human, human guy. The fact that he shared an emotional and touching reward with them probably helped. Obviously as much as I loved to see it, it didn’t seem to sway Sam in his conviction that Nick is a snake and has to go. So I’m not sure he could have done much more.

If Nick could see Matt was on the outer before going to tribal, why didn’t he approach Matt and see if they could flip it?

I was surprised at tribal when he outed Matt as not having his finger in the Brick pie as much as he thinks he does, and my partner said to me, “well why didn’t he talk to Matt about this before tribal?” Good point, why didn’t he? I guess he thought that he had come up with his plan, and he didn’t need to. By his own admission however, he realised that the plan he had come up with was digested too easily by his tribemates. Very astute Nick. Why he didn’t act on this feeling I don’t know, but in hindsight maybe a word with Matt would have been a good idea. I guess it couldn’t have hurt. Either that or go to Brick, who he tells us he feels closest with, and try and flip the vote off him. It was clear to us that Flick didn’t want him to go, and Brooke thought it wasn’t ideal. Perhaps an impassioned plea to keep him, but also showing those guys why it would be beneficial to get someone out other than he may have actually persuaded Flick to do more than just think about it. Not sure anybody was ready to flip on Sam yet.

Tearjerk

I thought Sam was supposed to be one of the good guys?! Damn did we see a lot of spite from him tonight. Behaving very emotionally. It almost looked like he had convinced himself that Nick was a bad guy more than anyone else. Like he got this little idea in his head (thanks Kate) of Nick’s character and then talked himself into Nick being this season’s ‘big bad’ and that he was doing everyone a favour, and his tribe’s will by evicting him. In my eyes Sam really didn’t come off as the good guy that he thinks he is with his performance this episode. And what was with him asking J-LaP if the losers of reward could get their letters as well? Was that supposed to be him being the good guy as well, because that’s not the way it came off at all. Kristie is the one who won friends out of that little scenario (more on that later). Anyhow, given his performance in the last two episodes I can make prediction number two. Sam will not win this game. Not only has he shown that he is spiteful the last couple of episodes, but he’s confirmed what we already thought, and that is that he just does not have a head for Survivor in this season. That’s not to say he’s not smart enough to play the game, I’m not saying that at all, hell he got in and I didn’t. What it is saying though is that going into this game he was not aware of some of the basic strategy that we usually expect from our Survivors. Whether he wins or not, having now been there I’m sure he knows more about that strategy now. Where to now for our other big players?

Flick

Flick told us she wanted to keep Nick around, and that made sense for her while he was one of her numbers. I must say though I really liked her way of trying to make that happen without drawing attention to herself. To just try and quietly shift the votes to Sue was really, really smart. She has clearly been reading my analysis and knows that for her it’s not quite time to rock the boat yet, that there’s a few other people that can quietly be shown the exit door before she needs to start making any big moves. Good job Flick. We still don’t know exactly where JL is, and with Kylie as a floater, it will be time very soon to start making some more strategic decisions about how to make it further, who to cut before they cut her, and how the pecking order in her tight three is going to resolve itself and who she would want to go to the final two with. Perhaps her and Brooke already have this plan, my suggestion is to start making those moves if not at next tribal then the tribal after, before Sam, Lee and especially Matt do something about the power that your trio has in the game.

Kristie

We’ve seen Survivors sacrifice their reward in order to perhaps strengthen bonds within the tribe in the past. And more often than not it is seen as less of a heartfelt gift and more of a ploy to curry favour. While I am sure that in the case of Kristie giving her reward to Matt, she did not do it in order to be in his or anyone else’s good books, what a result it had. Usually the ploy is incredibly transparent and does not work at all, with the person going home very soon after. Matt however told us he would be forever in Kristie’s debt and Kristie gained a game-long ally. Nice work Kristie. As far as what you need to do with that, your timing perhaps couldn’t be better. Now that Matt’s eyes have been opened to his place in the tribe, it’s time to use that alliance to do some good. If you can hook up with Matt, Sue and JL(?) then that’s a solid voting block to dismantle either SamLee or BrickEl. Again, we don’t know where JL is at, but as you and Sue are such easy pickings at the moment you really need to move soon. Like, next episode, heed my warning lady.

Matt

Matt, if you didn’t know it before you certainly should now, you are no longer Charlie’s Angels’ Charlie. You’re more like, well, if Brick are Velma and Daphne, you’re Shaggy. They don’t need you buddy, in their eyes you will just get in their way. So what do you do about it? Harness those people on the periphery and move against Brick pronto. When Kate spelled out to SamLee where they are, and that Nick was higher up the totem pole than them, I’ve no doubt that they saw that Brick were at the top and Brick will have to slice them at some stage. Hopefully SamLee will move with you against Brick, and I’m sure that at least Sue and Kristie will too. Unfortunately it seems Lee has completely lost El to Brick, but perhaps Sue could convince JL to join them. That would give you the six you need to make it happen. Kylie? I wouldn’t tell her shit. In making this move though it is important that Brick feel safe. The first thing you need to do is go to them and talk to them bout what Nick had said, and not confront them per se, but just have a nice chat with them, tell them you’re still tight with them. You really need them feeling comfortable now and strike now, because within a couple of episodes they will shift out of coast mode where they just pick off the low hanging fruit, and into big move mode to get rid of big threats. Now really is the time for everyone on the periphery to start thinking about what they can do, and how they can be used by bigger players, to start making some game-changing moves. If you can form a six against four, and a solid three within that six, that could be the path to the final three, and if you’re lucky, final two. I wold love to hear other people’s thoughts about this in the comments below.

Tonight will also see the start of Channel Ten publishing their ‘Ponderosa’ videos. We’ll get a glimpse into the lives and the thinking of the jury as they live on island while the rest of the game plays out. Good on you Channel Ten for going here, that’s something a lot of fans love and crave. I’ll probably check them out and consider whether they may be worthy of discussing in this analysis ongoing. If you want to check them out you can check out the first episode featuring Nick here:

I couldn’t end this post without acknowledging a couple of delicious things Nick did in tribal tonight. Firstly, his comment directly at Sue as he wrote her name down. I don’t think we’ve ever seen anyone do that so explicitly before, and it was absolutely delicious. Secondly, he pulled the old ‘idol fake out’. Every time I’ve ever seen this it comes off as cheap and naff. Nick made it hilarious. He knew he was going and really wanted to leave with a laugh. It was classic Nick and he left us all with a smile on our face. I hope we see you again Nick, I really do. Preferably in person on island. I would LOVE to play with and against you. Keep being you brother. In my heart, you’ll always be one of the good guys. As for the rest of you, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 18 analysis here!

Survivor analysis by Russell Feathers, an Australian who thinks he has the numbers, but probably is about to have his torch snuffed (not a euphemism).

Here He Come Now Saying Phony Phony

Idol Threats

(Male) Rebel (Wilson) Yell!

Shock To The System

Rock the Cradle of Love

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs channel ten)

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A Swell Old Time

I’ll Take You

Proving Them Wrong

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How to Make a Jury Cringe 101

‘El Yeah

Closing Arguments

I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’

Given the Flick (oh shit…)

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Flick Flop

Still Floating or Dropping Anchor?

Aganoa, noa, noa. Push pineapple. Shake the tree.

TimTam Sam and Milk ArrowMatt (if you’ve got a better biscuit reference to apply to Matt I’m all ears)

Bye Bye Brooke

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Scary Thoughts

El and back

Taking the LEEd?

FLICK OFF!

Kristie

Scamming Sam

Magic Matt

Brookie has the odds

You Say Goodbye. I JL, oh…

Bonus Round

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“Yeah, but”

She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone…She’s Still Here

Methinks the Lady doth not Protest Enough

Devils Between My Toes

Flippin’ ‘El

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Exile Beach, Far Away in Time

With a little understanding, you can find the perfect blend

Up Against a Brick Wall

El’s Belles

A Perfect Fit

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SPOILER ALERT! The discussion below contains spoilers of season 33 episode 1.

THE LEGACY ADVANTAGE DA DA DUUUMMM!!

Biggest Twist(er) in Survivor History

Short Cut Short Cut Short Cut

Power, Wisdom, Courage, and….. OK Scrap the Wisdom

Oh Crap!

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Snakes and Leaders

Tearjerk

Flick

Kristie

Matt

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