Episode 25 – ‘I Owe You a Big One’ OR ‘Pulling It Off and Winning a Necklace’

If you’re yet to read the analysis of the previous episode, I’ll throw you a lifeline, you can check it out here.

The threesome is finally here. Unfortunately for Kristie, she is no longer in the middle with room to move. She’s not the meat in that sandwich. Instead, she’s more like banana at a bread party. There’s a possibility she’ll be invited to play, but chances are slim to bubkas. Particularly now that she no longer has the peanut butter that is Flick. Time to turn this discussion into a chicken carcass and break it down.

How to Make a Jury Cringe 101

Move along, nothing to see here. Kristie made the move that we all suspected she would, now in order for her to make it to final two she has to win immunity. This was a stupid move. Not because I don’t think that she can beat Lee or El. I’ve said multiple times that if she makes the final two she will beat both Lee and El. But the way that it played out at tribal, it was clear that she wasn’t going home. It was also made very clear in the tribal that El and Lee would take each other to final two should either of them win immunity. So had she sent a vote towards Lee then she remains safe and in the top three, and potentially faces Flick in the final three. Arguably this would give her a much better shot of making it to the final two. I have to give her credit for the way that she backs herself though. It’s inspiring to see her grab the bull by the douchebags and commit herself to going toe to toe against Lee and El. She has to, the reality is I see no situation where she can make final two without winning immunity, and I won’t even take the time to entertain such possibilities, it would be an exercise in futility. What I can do though is consider how she might address the jury should she beat the odds and win immunity.

Much like the pole that one has to fashion at immunity challenge, even if one’s game is long enough, if it’s not strong enough at the end, or you don’t have a hook, you don’t get the key to the prize. So what is Kristie’s story and is it strong enough? How did she get here, does she have a hook? Kristie has told us many times in the past that she is a floater. The problem with that word is that it devalues the decisions that she has made. The word floater suggests that she let others make the decisions for her. This may be the case but you don’t want the jury to think this. She has said she has played an independent game. The word ‘independent’ can be taken a couple of ways. It could be said that she didn’t listen to peoples advice or that she hasn’t had the help of others. The reality is that she has had the help of others. A lot of help and a lot of luck. If I were her I would be playing up the fact that she made decisions, tough decisions, at every step of the game to get herself further. That these were smart decisions and the proof is in the pudding. She also needs to accept that there were people that helped her, and that she milked those opportunities for all that they were worth. If it were anyone else but Kristie in this situation, I would advise that she talk up her social game, and argue that this was the reason the opportunities came her way. Alas, for Kristie, social skills probably aren’t her strong suit, certainly not from what we’ve seen. This was evidenced by her being voted least popular at final six. So such a play I’m sure would be met by the jury with laughter. In terms of a hook, unfortunately for K, the move that she made against Phoebe was arguably her biggest, but the only person on the Jury who saw it and saw how big a move it was is Sue. There’s no harm in using it as an example anyway, if you’ve got it flaunt it. I can’t think of any other moves she has in her story that she can use. If there’s something you think I’m missing please let me know in the comments.

‘El Yeah

***I’ll let you insert your own caption here…***

Another person I have to give credit to tonight is (I can’t believe I’m writing this…) El. Only because she actually had a thought. It was a good thought. It was such a good thought that even I had not thought about it. The thought was that if she and Lee kept Flick in the game, then she would go to final two regardless of who wins immunity in the final episode. Obviously if she wins immunity she goes, if Lee wins he takes her, and if Flick wins she takes her. Once she had this thought however she didn’t act on it. I suspect because Lee could see that it was risky for him and he convinced El that they should target Flick. Unfortunately for El, Flick is also the only person that she could possibly beat (if Brooke votes against Flick, check out the numbers here). So tonight she missed her only opportunity at winning the game. Her other option tonight was to vote against Lee. I suspect if she had done this, she would not lose Lee’s jury vote. Furthermore had she done this, having made such a big move may have actually moved her up a few pegs in the minds of the jury. Unfortunately, for us the viewers and for her, she didn’t go there, and we’ll never know how that scenario could have played out. As much as I’d love to talk about how El can and should address the jury… I’m sorry I couldn’t type that with a straight face…

Closing Arguments

What will Lee have to say should he make it to the final two? I expect that he will probably get some questions from Nick, JL, Matt and Brooke about his strategy. He’s argued for some time that he is strategic. That his strategy was to find a strong alliance and try not to piss anyone off. Though that’s a fair answer, I doubt that will satisfy the jury. Sam could also have a go at him about turning on him. His initial reaction to that might be to argue that he was just getting Sam before Sam got him. And it’s a fair argument to make. I think the best way though to actually counter this question is with humility. Sam will want to hear how hard it was for Lee to do that to his mate, and how ultimately he saw Sam as a threat. I think Sam will respect that and it may earn Lee his vote. He needs to play up the moves that he made, and the things he achieved. He was a challenge beast. And when it came down to it, he was the one who was able to convince Kristie to vote his way. In this respect, his actions completely impacted the game. He would not have had the ability to do that had he not made such a strong connection with Kristie. These are all solid arguments for him, but to be honest, they’re all moot points. The reality is that Lee will stick to the standard post match cliches. Tell us how he gave 110%. I bet ten dollars he says “full credit to Kristie/El”. We’re going to get nothing of substance from him.

I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’

Given the Flick (oh shit…)

***“What’s that smell?…oh, desperation…”***

So sad to see Flick go tonight, she was the last remaining tactician and has been for some time. She did everything she could this episode to stay. She tried every possible angle tonight. She pushed hard in the challenge. She puckered up and kissed some arse, (no wonder she smelt like “stinky colon”). She tried to convince Kristie on a rational level. Regrettably Kristie decided to go another way. The only thing that might have changed tonight’s outcome is if somehow she had established the type of bond with Kristie that Lee has. I guess since the merge happened, she did not suspect that she would end up in a situation where she needed Kristie’s trust, and didn’t foster a relationship with her, at least not one that we saw. Even if she didn’t think Kristie would make it this far, she should have (and to be fair I’m sure she did) at least fostered the relationship in the hope that she would earn Kristie’s vote. Live and learn I suppose. Take this as a cautionary tale. Foster those relationships, no matter how much you think you wont need them. And DON’T TELL SOMEBODY THAT THEY’RE LEAVING!
Until tomorrow night’s finale, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 26 Finale analysis here!

Episode 24 – ‘Jek-El & Hyde’ OR ‘Dracu-Lee’

Have your emotions confused your path forward? If so, get back on track by reading my previous post here.

***EL is smiling because she finally learned what the word ‘alliance’ means***

Once again Kristie has a predicament. The power to change the game in her holistic little hands, and then she goes and sides with Lee and El. Let’s go ahead and break down if this was a good move for her, and where our other Survivors now sit.

More torn than Daniel Johns’ old photos of Natalie Imbruglia

As much as I don’t like the move, because I personally don’t like Lee or El on my television anymore (in fact I’m hoping that someone can tell me if there’s a google plugin that can delete the letters ‘L’ and ‘E’ from my internet browser so I never need to hear about them again), I argued last week that Kristie could beat El and Lee, and I stand by that. I won’t go through the numbers again (if you want to check them out do so here), but if anything Lee and El’s performance tonight has them potentially losing a vote or two should either of them make it there. Kristie has a better chance of making the final three by making the move she did. Idols aside, I can’t see Lee voting her out next round, I can’t see El not voting against Flick. That puts her in the top three. Getting to top two is much harder. I can’t see Lee and El not taking each other, regardless of Lee’s assertions that they haven’t discussed a top two. So for Kristie to make it to the top two now it almost seems like she has to win immunity to get there. Are there really no other options though?

***This scene brought back a lot of memories of my time in ‘ball waiter college’…***

If Kristie doesn’t want to go to final three with Lee and El is there anything she can do before then? Other than having taken El out tonight, there’s not much. It would require Kristie work with Flick and then convince either El or Lee to vote the other. Now that’s a hard sell. I suspect that El would never work with Flick now. Lee on the other hand, again, I just can’t see anyone talking him out of voting with El. And to be fair, why would he? I think he would beat her in a final two, (five votes to four if you follow last week’s numbers). At this stage though if you want to break up Lee and El, that’s you’re only option, so what have you got to lose? You’d have to throw it out there, as Lee says, have a crack at it. Aside from that hail mary play, the only other way we are likely to end up with a three that doesn’t include both Lee and El is if Flick wins immunity. That seems to be Flick’s only shot, and that is something I’d love to see!

For the love of all that is holy, Flick please win immunity!

Flick winning immunity would make things very, very interesting indeed. That would leave Lee, Kristie and El having to vote turn on each other. I have absolutely no idea who which way they would choose to go. Given Kristie seems to have finally settled on the loyalty/mateship route, I suspect that she would not vote against Lee. She’s said a couple of times now that it’s not about the numbers. But we did see her momentarily be happy to vote with Flick and Matt and I feel that she was genuine about that move at that time, and would have gone that way until she was dissuaded by Lee and El. But given how wishy washy she is it’s not outside the realms of possibility that she would vote Lee out. That would be the smarter move for her, as I doubt that in a final three of El, Flick and Kristie, Flick or El would take each other to the final two. I could be wrong about that, Flick may feel that she has a better chance of beating El than she does Kristie. That is a real lineball call. Again, according to last week’s numbers, if Flick gets Brooke’s vote then she would beat both Kristie and El five to four. Incidentally when I suggested last week that Brooke may respect Flick’s game play and still vote for her even though Flick blind-sided her, I received more correspondence than ever, all of it telling me how wrong I was that Brooke might vote for Flick. This may be the case, I guess we’ll have to wait and see, though we may not get the chance. In any case, on my numbers, whether Flick takes Kristie, Lee, or El, the votes remain the same, she either wins by one or she loses by one. Of course, she’s got a much better chance of getting to the top two if she wins immunity and tries to get Lee voted off. I’d love to see this happen next episode.

El flips her shit

El is angling for a job as a gymnastics judge after Survivor…

Wow, it did not take El long to turn nasty there. This was a serious case of Jek-El & Hyde. The woman whose vocabulary thus far in the game consisted 25% ‘yeah’ and 25% ‘ok’ suddenly ain’t so agreeable anymore. Though to be honest this was a good move from her. She needed to turn on Flick and put her on the spot in order for Kristie to maybe have second thoughts. Flick for her part probably played it too diplomatically. Of course, Flick should never have told El what the plan was. Does nobody read this? You never, ever tell somebody that you are voting them out. It never works (please prove me wrong in the comments). My guess is that Flick was thinking two things when she did this. Firstly, I genuinely believe that Flick counted El as a friend and wanted to maintain that friendship out of the game. Secondly, I suspect that Flick was trying to mitigate any jury fallout, and ensure that she still had El’s vote. Noble intentions, but biggest backfire ever. This is Survivor lady. When you’ve played an underhanded game for fifty days, you can’t then try and play the friendship card, especially with the person you’ve been underhanded with. This is perhaps indicative of El’s social game. El’s relationship with Flick was strong enough that Flick felt it necessary to do that. Furthermore, when El confronted Flick about any final two deals, Flick then had the opportunity to throw El under the balls and tell Kristie that El had promised Flick a threesome with Lee (insert snigger here). Whether she was being too diplomatic, too polite, or was simply just lost for words, that didn’t come up. El had the good sense to end the conversation, grab Lee, and force Kristie into explaining herself, of which I thought she did a pretty good job. Unfortunately, Lee then opened his big fat boofhead mouth didn’t he.

Unsportsmanlike Conduct

***…and the award for most manipulative thing said all season goes to…***

So the discussion moves to this bully. Thus far in the game we’ve seen Lee be rather protective of Kristie. Now it seems that he was less being protective of Kristie and more protective of his game (if you can call it that). It was utterly disgusting to see him bully and threaten her during the beach conversation. I’ve never been a fan of the threaten move. It’s an ugly, ugly move. So when he suggested to Kristie that if she voted out El he would push extra hard not to let anybody else win immunity (which is bullshit, he’s a ‘professional’ sportsman for fuck’s sake, we all know he gives 100% EVERY challenge) I was disgusted and enraged. Then to follow that up back at camp by not allowing Kristie to talk to Matt or Flick, and speaking on her behalf, that fucker took it to another level. Poor Kristie just had to sit there like the little kid stuck at the dinner table while their parents are fighting over who gets custody, while this Trumpian oaf completely disrespects her by not allowing her to make her own decisions and treating her like an object to be fought over. Very poor form. Last week we saw Lee play this very scenario much differently. Just listening to and commenting on Kristie’s predicament, but still allowing Kristie to make her own decision. I almost found him to be a good guy in that moment. How wrong I’d have been. It’s a shame that most of the jury didn’t see his vulgar display this episode. But guess what Lee? Australia did. Australia did.

Disappearing Act

***Don’t sell yourself short buddy, you smashed that puzzle challenge!***

Unfortunately tonight sees the departure of our beloved Matt. Kudos to Matt on a strong episode. He gave his all in the challenge. He managed to convince Kristie to join he and Flick (momentarily). He stood up for himself while Lee was having a go at him. Plus he had a great line at tribal council for El “so, like, an alliance”. That was gold. Best moment of the past handful of episodes. Could he have done anything tonight to save himself? I guess once shit started going down he could have approached Lee and El and told them he would vote with them against Flick. With Lee and El uncertain of just where Kristie stood they may have gone for that. Unfortunately it would have burned his closest ally left in the game (though after Lee and El’s performance tonight Flick may not give them her jury vote if either of them are in the final two against Matt), and left him with a lot of work to do next episode. But one more tribal is one more tribal, and coming close at winning this challenge means maybe a win next challenge. It’s worth a shot when there’s nothing left to lose. Regardless, we’ll miss you buddy, such a shame you were “pinched at the post”. I hope it didn’t hurt too much mate. That’s Survivor, the turntables don’t always turn your way.
This conversation’s over. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 25 analysis here!

Episode 23 – ‘Spilling the Beans’ OR ‘I Got a Big Mouth’

If you need to check out the previous episode's analysis, then you're at a disadvantage. Check it out here.

I'm afraid my worst fears have been realised, Lee and El are still in the final five. This was all thanks to Kristie deciding that Lee and El were better to move ahead with than Flick. Fuggin mateship and loyalty, bah humbug. Needless to say I don't like this move, and not only because I personally don't like Lee and El. I find them boring and without gameplay. The main reason I don't like this move is because I've long said I think it's very difficult to beat Lee or El in the final two. Is this still the case though?

Knowing the Numbers Well

At the 'getting to know you' challenge last episode we learned that Lee was the most popular contestant and Kristie was the least. If popularity translates to jury votes, then that certainly puts Kristie at a disadvantage if she were to stick with Lee to the final two. It might be time to reexamine this presumption that Lee and El are unbeatable in the final two I've been holding on to for a few episodes now. So let's take a look at the jury numbers though. If we look at the final eleven and forecast and rank who they think is most deserving to win this we end up with the following:
Nick: Flick most deserving, followed closely by, Kristie, Matt, Lee, and El

Kylie: El, Lee, Flick, Kristie, Matt

Sue: Kristie, Lee, El, Flick, Matt (I really don't know what Sue is thinking, but I think she definitely would put Kristie at the top)

JL: Kristie, Flick, Lee, El, and Matt

Brooke: this could go either way, but I'd like to think that she would stick with Flick, followed by El, Lee, Matt, and Kristie

Sam: Matt, Flick, Kristie, El, Lee

Matt: Flick, Kristie, Lee, El

Kristie: Lee, El, Flick, Matt

Flick: El, Matt, Lee, Kristie

El: Lee, Kristie, Flick, Matt

Lee: El, Kristie, Flick, Matt

(Looking forward to the final episode to see how wrong I am. If you disagree please tell me your thoughts in the comments)

Game Changer

Ok, so based on the above presumptions if Kristie went against Lee or El then Kristie actually wins 5 to 4. If she goes against Flick then she loses 5 to 4, unless Brooke still resents Flicks move and votes against her, in which case Kristie wins 5 to 4. And against Matt she wins 6-3. With these numbers Kristie actually has the best chance of winning the game, if she can make it to the final two. Ideally for her though her best bet is to go to final two with Matt, which is going to be hard to pull off with Lee and El still in the game. I can't really see a scenario whereby this could happen. For Kristie to make it to the final two against either Lee or El then Lee and El need to be broken up before final three, because it's a pretty decent bet that Lee or El will win that final immunity if they're both in the final challenge and they will take each other. For Lee and El to be broken up however, Kristie would have to flip against them at some stage, weakening her position with the other, not so much though that the other would consider putting Flick or Matt before Kristie. So the overall impression that I'm getting about Kristie's road ahead is that she will continue to be a floater and there is every possibility that whichever way she floats she may just end up in the final three. Flick's road ahead is a different story altogether.

Bite Me Hard

Once Kristie indicated at tribal that there was a possibility she may not flip with Flick, it weakened Flick's move against Lee and El. Fortunately she had put the wheels in motion for a split vote (very smart Flick!), which would have still resulted in three votes against El. But with Sam's vote neutralized, if Flick had proceeded to vote against El, then it would have resulted in a 2-2 tie, with a possibility that Lee and El would both stay and know that Flick had voted against them. She really had no choice but to flip her vote back with Lee and El. Shame Flick, I would have liked to have seen you smash another alliance. Let's take a look at the jury numbers for Flick. As above, if Brooke votes with her, then she could beat Kristie 5-4. Against Lee and El she needs Brooke's vote to win 5-4. Against Matt she clearly wins with 6 or 7 votes going her way. Getting to the final two is going to be tough though. Firstly, she has to break up Lee and El. Very, very difficult with Kristie seemingly dropping anchor at the Isle of Lee and El. The best bet for Flick now is to win some friggin challenges, because I can't see anybody's wanting to take her to the final two. Good luck Flick. Much like Brooke, you played a very strong game, unfortunately Kristie decided to go another way.

In Need of Magical Scenarios

Similarly for Matt, it looks like the only way he is getting further is by winning some immunity challenges. We know he can do it, they just have to be the right challenges for him. According to the above numbers though, there isn't anyone he can beat at final two. If he does, he is going to have to spin one hell of a story to be able to swing some votes his way. Hopefully for Matt's sake I've got the numbers completely wrong.

Sleeping on a Cloud

Lee and El are sitting rather pretty right now with the most solid alliance that we've seen all season. It's unlikely that anything can break this alliance now. For either of them to win, the best bet is for one of them to take Matt. They can do that as long as Flick doesn't win immunities. It would require that they flip on each other or Kristie though and that seems unlikely. Or Matt wins the last immunity and makes that decision for them. A quick comment about Lee's comments toward Kristie at camp, telling her that she didn't have to take the 'magical' options. Was this a dig at Matt? If so, that was sly brother. Nice one, and good on you for using a three syllable word.

Exile on Main Beach

A final note about Sam. Was there a possibility he could have avoided this? Well, the reason he is here is because he sided with Brooke against Lee and El a few episodes ago. This put him in their bad books. Unfortunately he didn't do anything to try and redeem himself get back in their good books. He had an opportunity once Brooke was voted out to go to Lee and El and apologise and lay the blame on Brooke. Unfortunately he did the opposite and told Lee to suck it up. He also had a chance at exile beach, far away in time, to approach the two of them to see if they wanted to work with him. He really did nothing to keep his options open. Kristie, and Flick to some degree, have always kept their options open, and this is reflected in how far they have continued in the game.

Again though, and I hate to keep harping on about this, did no-one look for an idol at exile beach, far away in time? Lee for one should know better! He's been there before and knows that idols are on exile beach, far away in time. J-LaP is still asking if people have them so I presume they're out there. I would have expected Matt or Flick to look for one at their reward as well. I'd love to know if there was one there. If anybody is reading this who knows, please fill me in in the comments. Maybe we'll see one come into play to make things interesting again for our final five.
Three episodes left now and my hopes are pinned on a Flick, Matt or Kristie win. With Lee and El still there this seems increasingly unlikely. Perhaps I'll be pleasantly surprised. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 24 analysis here!

Episode 22 – ‘Can’t Quite Get it Up’ OR ‘Can He Pull Off Something Special?’

If you haven’t read my analysis of the last episode, follow the co-ordinates here.

Raaargh! I got dressed up for the letdown. So much potential in this episode and that is where they end it?! I’m not saying it was a bad episode, but Channel Ten, if you’re going to wine me and dine me, then at least have the decency to seal the deal with a real tribal. Anything less is just plain rude. I was all lubed up with some tantalising twists ready for a wet and wild spa splashdown. Then you leave me hanging like that. Not cool Channel Ten. What am I saying, I can’t stay mad at you. I guess I should know better by now than to expect there would be a boot tonight. Now no result tonight means not much to talk about here, but we can keep chipping away and find something to get our teeth into.

You Can Call Flick the Pig-Catcher (‘cause she saved Lee’s bacon – I’m so sorry)

Flick starts the episode saying that she is loyal to Lee and El and wants to go to the end with them. Are you crazy woman?! Have you not listened to a thing I’ve been saying?! Last episode we finally had some people talking about who they might beat in the final two. This episode all of that seems to have gone out the window. At least she has the sense to have a good chat with Matt to suss out what he is feeling after being blindsided last week. Not only does this give him the opportunity to let off some steam at Flick and calm him down, but it just might keep the lines of communication open so that she is aware what Matt’s next play is. I’ll say it again, as much as Flick may come off cold and cutthroat to the camera, she really does play a good social game on island. She is very good at talking to people. Thankfully Matt is actually working on a plan.

The Victim, Playing

Finally we see Matt start playing, only a little bit, but playing nonetheless. I wouldn’t say he was going down swinging necessarily, more like blindfolded swatting at a piñata with a soggy tea towel, but it’s more than we’ve seen him do for some time. To be fair, big swings are probably not the best thing for his game now, this is the point where you don’t want to be seen as a threat. Big moves might sound good on a final two resume, but at the wrong time they will only hurt his chances of getting there. He has the nous to realise that El and Lee are unstoppable as a twosome and the only way that he can break those two up is to use Flick. When he questioned Flick on who the two biggest threats in the game are I thought this was a really nice way of getting her to reconsider her loyalty to Lee and El. Now I’m not naïve enough to believe that she possibly hadn’t already thought this, but at least he’s playing, and it lets Flick know that he is open to a move with her. If you can show someone that you are an option for them to go ahead with then you would think that the likelihood that they vote you out decreases. I had hoped that his great reward win would give him the ability to strategise some more, but alas. It didn’t work out that way. Incidentally, there were a few things about that challenge that had me thinking. Firstly, could you just choose not to count and remember the items in the box and just start digging? If this is allowable maybe that would have been a better strategy to employ. In fact I’d like to see them use that option in the future. There have been a few challenges in the last couple of years, and in the current US season where players could choose from different strategies. Usually choosing between a slow, but easier option and a fast but hard option. That could have worked well for this challenge. Hope you’re listening producers, I’ll expect a cheque in the mail. It did look like those puzzle pieces were pretty deep though and so if it was allowable, it may not have been wise in this instance. I also wondered whether players, after having grouped and counted the items, could then write the number of items in the sand next to them, so that if they had to come back to refresh their memories they didn’t have to tally again. Food for thought, I’ll have to remember that for if I ever get a shot on island (hint hint).

Hip to be Square

Once we heard what the reward would be my mind went straight into, who would you want to take with you, strategically? When it was announced there would be some sort of tribal tonight to determine, that changed everything completely. You can’t strategise when you have no idea what of the pieces that you’re playing with, let alone what board you’re playing on. It made me question if I would even want to win the challenge. Sometimes the last place you want to be is away from the tribe. It gives people the opportunity to strategise without you, potentially putting you at risk. You would actually want to keep an ally with the rest of the tribe so that they can fill you in on what went down in your absence. Of course there is also the possibility that an idol or clue will be at reward, that’s something you don’t want to miss out on, or worse, let somebody else have. The way it worked out though, Matt didn’t get any strategic advantage from winning reward at all. He didn’t get to pick who was coming with him, it looked like Flick made that decision. However, the two people that he will be at reward with are the two people he would most want to be there, Flick and Kristie. Meanwhile Sam, who we assume is Matt’s tightest alliance at this time, is sent to exile beach, far away in time, with El and Lee the enemy. I think it’s safe to assume that there is an idol or a clue at exile beach, far away in time, hopefully there’s also one at the spa. Speaking of bathrooms…

Floater in the Dunny

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Has our floater finally found a strategy to cling to? Well, she was as elusive and vague as ever in her pieces to camera. In true Kristie form however nothing is off the table for her. She really did some lovely play this episode. She was humble with Lee (good on him for taking the time to have a chat with her by the way) and let him vomit out where he stood. After he had coughed up that info she then pointedly, yet casually asked about Lee and El’s relationship with Flick. This is the information she really needs to be able to determine whether Lee and El are likely to stay Aganoa strong or give Kristie the flick, as it were. She also noticed that her alliance was chatting without her and again was able to ask them pointedly about what they were talking about, which of course, they totally bumbled. This gave Kristie all the motivation she needed to run to the toilet (what a terrible name for Matt) and look for other options in this game.

She also put herself in an important conversation with Flick and Lee, where they were discussing splitting the votes, if this was to go ahead and K didn’t like it she would potenitally have the power to flip a 2-2-2 vote into a 3-2-1, sending home the player of her choice. All in all this was a great episode for K, she again has put herself in a position where she has options and none of them are particularly hopeless.

Next time on, Survivor

**Who’s gonna come out of the next episode clean, and who’s gonna have to get dirty?**

So although nobody went to Jury Villa tonight, it’s fair to say that the scene is set for an unpredictable episode tomorrow night. Not only do we not know which way Flick and Kristie are going to move, there could be up to two idols in play, plus let’s not forget that Lee still has an advantage that is only good for two more tribals. Tomorrow night should be a cracker, though I should probably lower my expectations lest I be disappointed, again.

Until then, I got nothing else for ya. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 23 analysis here!

Episode 21 – ‘I’m a Believe-her’ OR ‘Last Train to Brookesville’

If you were blindsided by what happened tonight, it’s because you haven’t been playing along. Check out my analysis of the previous episode here.

Huzzah! We have some gameplay! The Brick has finally split in two, and it happened from within. Big ups to Flick for getting rid of the one person that nobody could beat in a final two (that breakdown is here). After the last episode I suggested that Lee and El be broken up first, so I’m a little disappointed that Flick didn’t listen. Regardless, let’s eat the dog and discuss whether this was the best move for the guys tonight.

Flick Flop

**Our puppet-master pulls all of the strings and doesn’t even need to be there…**

Well done Flick. You recognised that Brooke was a threat to your game long term and you made moves to disable the threat. Textbook play too. I am a little worried that it may have been one move too early as Lee and El now still hold the power among the remaining players, and Lee holds an advantage. Though to be fair, had she waited one more tribal then it is likely that Brooke might have made the same play against Flick. Now that would have really been a world war three to behold. Let’s think it through. If El had gone, then that would leave Brooke, Kristie, Matt, Sam, Flick, and Lee. Lee would likely then approach Sam as his next closest alliance, and at this stage it does not look as though Sam is going to turn on Brooke. Giving Brooke the numbers to take out Flick. Ok, Flick IS smarter than I am. Now was the time to take out Brooke. Does this leave a target on her back? Potentially, but she’s done all that she can do to mitigate that in allowing El to come up with Brooke’s name (that was nice). She might now be able to sit back and make it look like this was El’s move and let her take the heat. That would be a fine line to walk there, to get the balance right between having El take the blame for the move in-game, but still be able to take the credit for it with the jury. The other thing to think about is Lee’s advantage. Does she know what Lee’s advantage is? If so I’m wondering if it would have been smart to try and influence him to use that tonight so that he could not use that against her next tribal. I’m not convinced that Lee and/or El would try to move against Flick now. If that’s the case then you want Lee to keep it this tribal so that you definitely have the numbers in a six person tribal. Turning six votes into five and avoiding a tie scenario. So who does Flick need to take out next?

To get through the next tribal I would say Sam. Play up that Sam was going to vote against Lee and keep Lee motivated to take him out. However, Sam is one of the few people that Flick can beat in a final two. Lee and El are the two people who likely could definitely beat her. I would even go as far as saying it’s becoming increasingly likely Kristie could beat her too. So you might want to keep Sam around. So the best move for Flick would be to try and break up Lee and El next. If Lee and El make it to final five and Lee still has his advantage (the last time it can be used is final five), then they pretty much have the game wrapped up. One of them would likely make it to final two and would be very hard to beat. Therefore what Flick needs to do, is appeal to Matt and Sam, tell her why she felt it had to be done, that Brooke was a threat who could not have been beaten, that the next threats are Lee and El and they have to stay together to take them out next, all the while pretending that she is still with Lee and El. Unfortunately this would mean that she would have to rely heavily on Kristie to flip on Lee and El.

Still Floating or Dropping Anchor?

***“Maybe if I keep my mouth shut they’ll forget I’m here and won’t vote for me…”***

We saw some nice play from Kristie tonight. Firstly, we’ve been shown a few times over the last couple of episodes that she has actually made some social connections with people. She’s had lots of little interactions around camp that tells us she might not be as much on the periphery as we assume. Two big chats with Lee, high-fiving Matt, water walks with Brooke. She’s clearly still keeping her finger in some pies. She’s also showed us how her mind works when she was determining what Flick’s motivations would be in coming to El about flipping. That was really good to see. But where to from here for her. She’s said all along and she reiterated again tonight that she has played an individual game, and it’s worked well for her so far. It has her in a pretty good position now. She can choose whether to stick with El and Lee, or to move elsewhere. Given that El and Lee are the biggest threat in the game right now, my gut reaction is to break them up. Kristie’s other threat however is Flick. If you’re Kristie, ideally you want to go to the end with Sam or Matt. If you’re Lee and El, you’d probably also prefer to go to the end with Sam or Matt, and not Kristie. Alright, I’ve just convinced myself, the best move for Kristie now is to break up Lee and El, then work on convincing both Sam and Matt that they could never beat Flick in a final two and hope that the final immunity challenge falls your way. This path is a definite possibility, she has a reasonable shot of winning this game now, she just needs to listen to me. My commission is just a fraction of the prize money. That fraction is 499/500ths. With flexibility as Kristie’s arguably greatest asset, is she actually now a threat?

Aganoa, noa, noa. Push pineapple. Shake the tree.

***“Lee, there are no ‘big’ blindsides and ‘small’ blindsides there are just blindsides”***

I’ve spoken a lot about how others need to take out Lee and El for the best shot at winning, so what can Lee and El do to make it through this barrage of attacks. Let’s talk advantage first. Obviously, the advantage is more powerful the longer you hold on to it. If they can use it at final five rather than final six then they have a better shot of making it to final two. So they need to find a way to get through the next tribal without using it. To have a majority they need two more. Though I have absolutely no idea where Sam’s head is at after that “big” blindside, I’m going to presume that Lee could spoon him back into an alliance. If they still have Kristie with them then they have the four needed to vote out Flick (provided Flick doesn’t win immunity). The other option, and the one that is perhaps a little more dangerous, is to turn on Kristie. If they can recognise that a) Kristie is someone that the three others could want to take to the end, and b) her flexibility makes her both unpredictable and a threat, then they could possibly form a bipartisan alliance to vote out Kristie. Then once she’s gone Lee still has the advantage to move against Flick.

If he has Sam at that point he may not even need it. If he doesn’t have Sam then the least that the advantage can do is cause a tie scenario, which is better than going home outright. Is there any value in Lee or El voting out the other now? Firstly, I don’t think they will just because they have been very tight all the way through. Secondly, as each of them are such big threats to everyone else, they need to keep each other around to a) have stronger numbers and b) have a meat shield, someone else who could be perceived as a bigger threat. If we end up with Lee and El in the final two I would be very disappointed, but it is a distinct possibility. That leaves Matt and Sam for us to ponder on.

TimTam Sam and Milk ArrowMatt (if you’ve got a better biscuit reference to apply to Matt I’m all ears)

***“How did the rabbit get into the hat?…”***

Sam, Sam, Sam…. Brooke handed you a big move on a silver platter. As she was telling you that it was time to make a big move and break up Lee and El all I heard her say was “Sam, here’s my trust, you need to get out a big player, I’m never going to see it coming, here’s your chance, talk to your buddy Lee and you can have me out of the game. Or Flick if you prefer, it’s totally your choice”. Oh well. I guess what I heard was not what Sam heard. Regardless, result is the same, other than Sam had nothing to do with it and missed a chance at a move and feels on the outs. I have no idea how Sam and Matt are going to react to this blindside. As much as Matt thought that Flick and Brooke were the angels to his Charlie, we all knew the opposite was true. Sam and Matt were the Rocksteady and Bebop to Brick’s Krang. Brick was the brains and they were the meat that did the brain’s bidding. I mentioned above that I think that it is still possible for Flick to salvage an alliance with Sam and Matt, and to be honest, that is probably the best thing for those guys to do. Given the best shot that Sam, Matt and Kristie have in a final two is against each other, the move for Sam and Matt now is to stick with Flick and break up Lee and El, then take out Flick and fight it out amongst themselves for a final two. Hope you’re listening boys. I don’t want to see Lee or El in the final two.

Bye Bye Brooke

Sorry to see you go Brooke. You played an incredible game. Unfortunately when you play so well it makes you a huge threat and it was only a matter of time before somebody tried to neutralise you. I don’t think there was much you could do about it short of winning immunity. It seemed that you had some misgivings or uncertainty about Flick in this episode, as though you felt that she may have been doing something shady. It did seem in Flick’s conversations with both Brooke one on one and when she was talking to the original Pu-ans that she was hiding something, but I may just have been thinking that because I knew that she was. I would have thought that Matt would pick up on that. Perhaps if you guys had these misgivings about Flick then you could have had a chat to Kristie to see if she would give anything away. I think that you thought you had it wrapped up and didn’t need to. Anyway, we’ll miss you. Your probably played the smartest game out there, shame that it had to come to an end. I also never get to use ‘Brick’ again. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

Brick.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 22 analysis here!

Episode 20 – ‘Reunited and it Feels So Good’ OR ‘Let’s Stay Together’

Before I get into discussion about tonight’s episode, there’s something I need to discuss. Some of you may have read stories in the mainstream or social media about Brooke, Flick and El receiving threats and abuse. You may even have come across some of this abuse yourself. My first reaction upon reading that this has occurred was to defend the trio and their actions and the way they’ve played the game. But that bullshit is not really what the problem is here. The problem here is not what they’ve done, or how it may have been perceived by some, or if the editing is to blame. So my response is not to defend the women, but to condemn the dickheads out there that do this shit. This sort of abuse is NEVER appropriate. Now I know that across the fifty odd thousand words I’ve written about this season so far I’ve made my fair share of judgements about our contestants, but this shit is on another level. Anyone who hurls this type of abhorrent, disrespectful, despicable and downright vile trash at people, particularly women, is a fucking tool. Especially if done via the relative anonymity of the internet. Go fuck yourself wankers, #IStandWithFlickBrookeandEl.

If you’re yet to read my analysis of the last episode, there’s no need to be disappointed in yourself like Lee, you can catch up here.

I’m sure you’re just as disappointed in how this episode played out as I am so I won’t spend any more time bitching about how boring it was, and how boring our top seven are. Instead let’s be positive and look to the future and where we think each of our seven need to position themselves to make it to the end.

Scary Thoughts

Tonight saw many of our players finally come to the realisation that winning the game will require you to eventually vote out a friend. We even saw a number of them start thinking about who they might take to the end with them. With that in mind, I thought I might break down who each of the remaining seven can beat in the final two. Let’s check it out.

El can beat – Matt, Kristie, Sam, possibly Lee and Flick
Lee – Everyone except maybe Brooke (depending on the mood of the jury)
Flick – Sam, Matt, Kristie
Kristie – probably only Sam
Sam – Possibly Kristie but I don’t like his chances
Matt – Sam, Kristie, possibly Flick and El
Brooke – everyone except JL and maybe Lee

That is an interesting exercise. If you disagree with my assessments, let me know what you think in the comments below. Now let’s see how each player can use this info.

El and back

There’s a few people that El can beat if she gets there. Given that she can beat most people except Brooke, and Lee and Flick could still maybe beat her, then now is the time to grab Lee, scoop up Kristie and then find one more to smash the Brick. Who will that one be though, Sam or Matt? It seems at this stage there is absolutely no convincing Matt to split with Brick so that leaves Sam. I feel from what we’ve seen of Sam it’s not outside the realms of possibility that he could flip if Lee can show him how manipulative Brick has been.

Taking the LEEd?

Depending on how he gets there, the only person that Lee could not beat in a final two is possibly Brooke, and Brooke might only beat him if the jury respects manipulative gameplay. If the jury votes on sportsmanship or dare I say ‘mateship’ then Lee wins. He has done nothing wrong (so far), he just also hasn’t done anything very right.

FLICK OFF!

Flick is a hard one to judge. She has played a better game than Lee and El, but just doesn’t seem as likeable as they are. She comes across to the audience as cold-blooded, but I’m not sure she comes across that way to those on island. She has been able to influence others so we know she has social skills. The times when she has come across as cutting or cold about anyone have only been pieces to camera or discussions with Brooke. Her move is the same move I discussed last week. Get rid of Lee and El with her current alliance, then use others to move against Brooke (easier said than done). Then all she needs to do is beat those other losers to final two.

Kristie

Oh Kristie, doesn’t look like you’re in a good position here. The only person I believe you can beat in a final two is Sam, and there is still a possibity he could beat you. How to get there though? Seeing as Lee and El need you to take out Brick, I guess you need to side with them first. You’ll need to bring scamming Sam with you to do that. Then once Brooke and maybe Flick are gone you can use Matt to take out Lee and El, leaving you with Matt and Sam in a final three. Then you just need to make sure the final immunity challenge goes your way. You’ll then need to put in a solid enough performance at the final tribal, the one where the jury questions you. If you can string a sentence together and use some big words, then Sam shouldn’t be able to beat you unless the jury either really just doesn’t like you or really does like Sam.

Scamming Sam

*“It’s hard, hard, hard….pop me off”* Actual quote from Sam

As above only try not to say anything stupid in your final tribal. Appeal to the loyalty of your mates in Lee, Brooke, and Matt, and also talk up the times you actually tried to make a move. If you do win it will be by a whisker as there is no way Nick, JL or Sue are giving you their vote.

Magic Matt

As above with Sam and Kristie, if you go against either of those then you should take the win. Just do what I say and you’ll get there. I mentioned that you could possibly beat Flick or El, so you’ve got options. It may be harder to get there with Flick or El too and a lot more work to beat them. You’re best move for now I’m afraid is to flip on Brick, because the longer they stay the less likely you’ll make it to a final two unless you are their goat. You wouldn’t be my first pick for goat though. That honour goes to Sam. So that is a risky play. You need to lay low and see what happens this coming tribal. If you don’t make any sudden movements your head should not be on the chopping block. Once either Brick or Lee and El are broken up the way ahead should be a little clearer.

Brookie has the odds

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At this stage it’s Brooke’s game to lose. The only person that can beat her is Lee and even that depends on a jury that favours mateship and loyalty over strategy. As the person who is most likely to win however, she now has a huge target on her back. If she can keep her core four together, and somehow make it look like Flick is the bigger threat that may keep some heat off her. Also time to start a sub-alliance with Matt and Sam, let them know you’ll take them both to the final three if they can vote out Flick. You just then need to hope that you win the final immunity challenge. If the others are smart, they won’t take you to final to with them. If they do then it is a testament to your incredible social skills.

You Say Goodbye. I JL, oh…

You may have noticed that I put JL into Brooke’s list of who she can beat. This is because I wanted to talk about tonight’s move. The popular opinion, at least in the pies my finger is in, is that JL should have been kept as a number for flippers. While I would have loved to have seen JL stay as she is much more entertaining and prone to big moves than our remaining Survivors, as she is one of the few that could have beaten Brooke (if the jury respects an underdog story and a maker of big moves) it made perfect sense for Brooke to get rid of her now. Flick as well. They can clearly see that if they had kept her around, she would have been a number that any of the others could use to break up Brick and the core four. Had she been given a sniff I suspect that she would have kept playing hard right to the end. Unfortunately, things did not work out for her tonight. You may remember that in my analysis of the previous episode I was sure that tonight was going to be the night that JL would finally be used to smash the alliance. All she needed to do was sit back and let the others come to her. Matt and Sam think they are tight with Brick and Lee and El have realised much too late that to have any shot of winning they too need to do something about Brick. It’s a real shame. All of this is again testament to the quality of Brick’s game. Everyone thinks they are safe with Brick. Idiots.

Bonus Round

I also need to point out that I didn’t mention Lee’s advantage in the above. It hasn’t been spoken of on screen for a long time. I can’t remember the last time someone mentioned it. I assume that people still realise that he has it, but I have no idea if anybody other than Lee knows what the advantage actually is. Obviously, with it, Lee can really shift the game in his favour. If he’ smart, he’ll realise that next tribal is the time to use it, so that he can break up the core four. If he’s not smart, it may be too late and he could go home with an advantage in his pocket. My guess as to what will actually happen is he’ll win the next immunity, not think to use it, then use it later and it won’t actually change things for him at all. Time will tell. Until next episode, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 21 analysis here!

Episode 19 – ‘Blockheads’ OR ‘Literally(?) Shot Like Sitting Ducks’

If you’re yet to read my analysis of the previous episode, you can do so here.

Seriously?! This is how we are going to move into the top eight? We’re forty odd days into the game, our final nine, and people are still saying “I definitely feel like this person is someone I can work with”!? And again no one looking for a clue at the reward challenge?! This is a very different season of Survivor to the ones I am used to. As a fan, I have found the last two episodes particularly disappointing. If you’ve been reading along at home then you’ll know how much I was looking forward to these last two episodes assuming that we would start seeing some big moves. Instead we saw safe, boring and dare I say stupid gameplay result in the episode ending with a floater left in the bowl that is our top eight.

“Yeah, but”

***Little known fact: Rodin’s original concept for his sculpture ‘The Thinker’ was based on Sam.***

Yes, I am aware I sound like I’m whingeing. It’s really infuriating to watch Matt and Sam be so oblivious to what is actually going on. In Matt’s defense, he’s sticking to what he believes is a solid alliance. It’s not his fault that we the audience see that he’s not in the alliance, and he’s not in on the trick. That’s what makes it frustrating for us fans. It’s possible that if we didn’t know that his alliance wasn’t strong, it wouldn’t be so frustrating for us. I actually feel sorry for Matt. Perhaps I shouldn’t, he is playing Survivor and I’m not. He may even win for all we know. But surely it can’t be easy for him to watch this now, after believing that Brick are his ‘devils’, now knowing that he’s being played. Anyway, you gotta play the hand you’re dealt, I just didn’t think that this is the way that Matt would play it. He’s not responsible for my expectations. I also have to give credit to Brick here. Given all that’s been said to Matt, they have still managed to convince him that he’s with them. Sam on the other hand has done nothing to endear himself to me, though I’m sure he is a viewer favourite. For me, I want to at least see some strategy and some understanding of how the game works. “Yeah, but…” is how he replied upon hearing Sue and JL tell him that he could only make it so far while he let Brick control the game. What sort of a response is that?! He did at least give us the second funniest moment of the episode, when during tribal he said, and I’m paraphrasing here, “I’m still here because I’m more cleverer than you guys”. The funniest moment of course was when the top seven were having a swim and talking about how Sue was the vote and Matt asks if they need to split the votes, but nobody can respond because Kristie is there with them. Then people start pointing at Kristie behind her back, and Matt points in return, Kristie turns around and Matt has to do something with his hands so he runs his fingers through his hair. That was gold. It’s a sad reflection of the quality of gameplay on show this episode when that humorous moment is what I am spending my time reflecting on. The only gameplay I feel like we saw came from JL, and a little bit from Sue.

She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone…She’s Still Here

At least JL knew that tonight was the night to make a move. In the previous episode we saw her chatting with Matt after Nick had called out that he was oblivious to what was going on and at that point Matt agreed that there was “a lot of truth in that”. So it was not a surprise that she tried to get in his ear again today. Though her claim that she needed to talk to him ‘for his benefit’ was more than a little disingenuous, at least it got them talking. Matt however would not be swayed. We saw JL and Sue try and sway Sam, yeah, but, that didn’t work. She tries a word in Kristie’s ear. Kristie basically just smiled and nodded. JL even tried to get Flick to expose her crack. Not to mention the things that she had to say at tribal after getting her mongrel on to win immunity. As JL was spraying what she was saying I was actually thinking that she needed to go further in calling out the dynamics. She needed to push Brick to have them say exactly what the pecking order was, in much the same way that Kate spelled it out to Sam and Lee. No sooner had I thought that when Sue took my thought and JL’s lead and ran with it, calling out the bonds more explicitly and putting Brick on the back foot (who actually handled it pretty well I think). We also saw Sue come up with the idea to write Kristie’s name down. Even though had it worked it may have only got her through one more vote, I thought this was some nifty parallel thinking. It was unfortunate that it didn’t work for her. While we’re on Sue, I know I said she did some good things tonight, and I said similar things about her last night. Unfortunately tonight she also showed why it was she didn’t make it further in this game. She may not be naive, sweetheart, but she also didn’t play particularly strategically. Last night we saw Flick come to her to try and get her on side, I suggested Sue leverage this last night, but she didn’t listen (why don’t these people read my advice between tribals?! Honestly). So, there’s that, but also tonight we didn’t really see her talking to anyone other than JL. She just lay down and crossed her fingers. There was no attempt at scrambling (admittedly she hadn’t laid any groundwork that she could scramble with but at least try). So, naive she may not be, but her sharpness and observance was not enough to grant her the title of survivor when it has no action behind it. I’m sad to see you go Sue, but it takes more than that (says I, worried that friggin Lee will win).

Methinks the Lady doth not Protest Enough

So what does this actually leave JL with? Well, viewers less well-versed in Survivor might say that JL has completely burned her bridges. If she doesn’t win immunity next episode she will be given her marching orders. I tend to disagree, I don’t think its a foregone conclusion at all. We did see Phoebs coast through a couple of tribals when it looked like all was lost for her, simply because people were scared of bigger threats. And though I do wish JL had called out even more at tribal, what she did say may just be enough to put some fright into people. Sammy we know can be flighty, it’s possible that he has taken some of what was said tonight seriously, and realises that if he allows BrickEl to continue he’s out. El herself may actually feel somewhat insecure that she is tied to what is now clearly a target and choose to distance herself from them and start to play her own game. Lee may think… that would be a good start for him. What Kristie plans to do though is anyone’s guess. You can only float for so long before you need to start making moves to climb out of the bowl or you’re going to be flushed. I’m having a good think about the best move for her and she’s got lots of options. If the status quo remains with the top five staying tight then her only move is to wait for the flush. Given all of the explicit attempts that we’ve seen to break that top five, I’m actually beginning to think it may not be possible to create your own crack. If this is the case the best bet for her, and JL and Matt for that matter, is actually to wait and hope that some of what JL has said has stuck, and that one of those top five feels as though it’s time for them to make a move against their alliance before the move is made against them first. I feel that JL, Matt and Kristie are not going to get anywhere by explicitly pushing a move between now and next tribal. They need to sit back, maybe, ever so subtly drop a few hints about the five needing to turn on each other soon, and then sit back and wait for someone to come to them. In fact I would argue that if you were one of the top five and you did want to make a move, next vote is the time to do it. You’ve got three numbers on the periphery that you could use. Wait any longer and you either won’t have those numbers there, or someone else will strike first.

Devils Between My Toes

I assume that Brooke feels that taking Flick to final two is her best move. I would agree with my assumption of what she feels. I do imagine though that it is possible that she may be having doubts in her alliance given all the shade that has been thrown their way lately. Is it possible that Flick could be hoping to throw Brooke under the balls before she gets to the final two and take Sammy or Lee, or even JL or Kristie with her? If I were Flick I certainly wouldn’t be taking Brooke to the final two with me. There’s no winning against Brooke. Maybe, just maybe JL has a shot of winning against Brooke if she continues to dominate challenges and make some moves on her way there. I can’t see anyone else beating Brooke in the final two. So Flick needs to find a way to remove Brooke from the final two. The bind for her is that the best way for her to get there is for Brooke to take her. It’s a catch 22. Brooke wants Flick in final two with her, Flick doesn’t want Brooke there. If Flick votes Brooke out too early she’ll never make it there. The ideal scenario for Flick is that she and Brooke make it to final three, and Brooke doesn’t win immunity, with the winner voting Brooke out. And I feel like there’s plenty of people that Flick could beat in a final two. The ideal scenario for Brooke is that she and Flick make it to final three and Brooke wins immunity and has her choice of who she takes to the final two with her, likely beating whomever that might be (except maybe JL). Regardless, the best move for Brick is to stay together. As I mentioned above though, El may have other plans.

Flippin’ ‘El

***El takes a good hard look at the pecking order…***

So does that mean that the best move for El now is to flip on Brick? Yes, I think it is. There are enough people that want Brick smashed, and El seems to have good relationships with Lee and Kristie. So most definitely, now is the time to strike. El has a much better shot of beating Kristie, Sam or Lee in the final two than she does either of Brick. If she doesn’t strike now then she may miss her shot and then have to hope that some immunity wins go her way.

So, there’s potentially some pretty decent gameplay ahead of us. That’s not even mentioning that Lee still has an advantage in the game, that could totally change everything I’ve just suggested to our top eight. Just please please please do what I say Survivors! Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 20 analysis here!

Episode 15 – ‘Get a Grip on that Pole’ OR ‘Show Us Your Pink Bits’

I’m not going to beg you, but if you want to check out my analysis of episode 14 before you dive into episode 15, you can do that here.

14492333_839112586224632_1121775127472063286_n — **It really was very nice of J-LaP to give me a shout-out tonight, thanks brother**

Merge is here and in the words of Robert Pollard “now the fun begins”. Not that we haven’t been having fun for the past 33 days, but as we all know, the games shifts post-merge and tonight was as good an indication as any of how crazy things can get once it becomes even more of an individual game. And with a thirteen person tribe (the largest in Survivor history) things are even a little crazier than usual. What better place to start our discussion than with Sam’s ‘good kid’, Conner.

Fall-out Boy (think about it, that works on so many levels, I’m quite proud of myself)

Conner was loved by many and in turns made us both smile and cringe. His mixture of youthful naivety, and puppy-dog playfulness, and earnestness in the face of unfamiliarity brought him many a fan. Unfortunately, while he was the New Kid On The Block, he did not have The Right Stuff….baby. His failure to pull together any sort of alliance in this episode saw him come undone. We all know however that this wasn’t the only failing that led to his downfall. Aside from turning on Bianca back in episode 2 (had he not done that Saanapu would have been very different) I would argue that his exploits in episode 5 when he tried to turn the tables on Flick and call some people out on their duplicities really sowed the seeds for his departure tonight. He never really recovered any ground in the eyes of the original Pu, and while I don’t think they necessarily were out for revenge, they knew he was volatile and his unpredictability could destroy their games. He struggled to find his feet after being exiled to Vavau in episode 5, finally finding what looked to be a solid two with Kate in episode 14 (who should forget that trust ceremony, nawww). Well that was over before the honeymoon had even begun! We didn’t see either of the newlyweds have a family meeting and try and balance the family budget. Conner’s crucifixion isn’t all his own baby-jesus faced fault.

What the Hell Vavau?

So let me get this straight, Sue, Conner, Kate and Kristie voted Matt, Nick, Kylie and Conner respectively? And Saanapu voted exactly to their suggested five-four split? So much for Kate’s “We need to get the good guys together, AVENGERS ASSEMBLE!” What were Vavau hoping to gain from voting individually? We saw a glimmer of game in Sue when she said something like ‘I’m not happy about it and I’m going to do something about it’, I was thinking ‘about time, what magic are we going to see from Nanna’, and she didn’t do shit. Very disappointing. How they voted aside, we didn’t really see them scramble at all. All we saw was Conner try and talk to Sam. He couldn’t do that the way he wanted to, then effectively just said ‘oh well’ and shrugged his shoulders. Maybe he was coming down after all that sugar. Given he didn’t get the pre-tribal conversations he was hoping for I thought that we’d at least see a last ditch effort from him to blow shit up at tribal and drop some truth bombs about Nick (which we expect would have backfired anyway given he has an idol), but he just lay down, even through a J-LaP grilling. J-LaP gave him every opportunity to stir shit up and out Nick (I would even argue J-LaP went too far with it), but he just seemed, much like the jesus he apparently resembles, like a dead man walking.

Will the Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up

14324570_838365036299387_5524549933193869668_o — **“socially, strategically, economically, spiritually”…there’s no denying the man can rap.**

What were these guys doing for 3 days after the merge that they didn’t get a sense of where the tensions lay in Saanapu? They could have and should have been spending time figuring out where they could drive a wedge or split a seam or plant a seed or frack the Murray-Darling basin that is Saanapu. I was pretty confident that once we hit the merge we would see a coup against Nick. We’ve seen plenty of times in Survivor when a tribe hasn’t been to tribal for a while, they almost relish being able to finally do so, just so that they can get the person out who has been shitting them for so long. Nick is that person. Earlier in the episode when he kind of started calling the shots (more on this in a bit) I thought to myself ‘wow, what has he done to be able to turn things around for and really ingratiate himself into this tribe’. Shortly after that we got about three or four snippets of conversation or pieces to camera with Saanapuans revealing they think he is a snake and want him gone. Why then did they go for Conner? I guess Conner has proven himself to be flaky, whereas Nick on the other hand, actually hasn’t shown anything concrete to them in terms of flakiness. Yeah he comes off as shady, but unlike C-dog he hasn’t actually done anything shady. I mentioned above that he was calling the shots so to speak, but that was only after asking The Pu what they wanted to do. He then just told them how to do it.

Good Game

So far I’ve talked a lot about the shite gameplay this episode, but did we see anything good? Hmmm, the strongest player that comes to mind is Brooke. Brooke is someone that has slowly but surely worked her way into a solid position in this game over the last couple of weeks. Earlier this week I was fortunate enough to be invited to contribute to my favourite Australian Survivor podcast to discuss the season thus far (you can listen on Soundcloud and iTunes) and Brooke was certainly someone who was brought up as a possible end game player in that discussion. This was confirmed this episode when not only did she win immunity, we saw her involved in all of the major conversations, either there organically because she had grown alliances with the right people, or inserting herself into conversations that weren’t hers to be in to make sure shit didn’t go awry (possibly the most awkward conversation we’ve seen so far). Gold star for robot girl (to bastardise Robert Pollard).

Where to from here?

14409904_839131862889371_6158795534270894560_o — **The happy family?**

With twelve people left in the game I am not going to run through possible moves for every player. As I mentioned in my analysis of the previous episode the best thing for anyone to do so early in the post-merge and with so many players in the game, is to lay low and let the tall poppies stick their necks out (#analogymashup #beenlisteningtoandrewtoomuch). Admittedly, there has been a show of solidarity from Saanapu in the first vote, but surely, the cracks have to appear eventually. As viewers we can see those Saanapu crack, I’d imagine that Vavau will see those Saanapu cracks before too long. If they don’t become visible by themselves, a pointed question or two from Sue will elucidate them.

Other Points of Interest

Nick has an idol. Lee has an advantage. How these came about was interesting. We had the classic Survivor auction. A Survivor staple. Though I’ve never seen it with 13 players before. Usually in these cases we see players fall over themselves to try and get the advantage/s from the auction. Tonight was the opposite. Lee’s advantage was probably the cheapest auction advantage in Survivor history at $80. Nick really protested upon discovering what he had bought was an advantage. I guess it comes down to where in the season the auction is. At this stage, people don’t wan’t to be seen to have an advantage because they don’t want to have targets on their backs. In the past when we’ve seen auctions and they have been later in the game, advantages are more advantageous, you need something to get you through just one more tribal. Regardless, Nick’s advantage is an idol clue and he really wastes no time in finding that idol. Lee catches him looking and Nick is left with no choice but to involve Lee in the looking. At this point I wondered if maybe Nick thought both their advantages were clues to the same idol and they had to race to get it. After finding it he shares it with Lee. I’m not convinced that this was a good move. To me it looked like he had an opportunity to pocket it without Lee knowing. He could then have kept looking and Lee could back up his story that he hadn’t found it. He could have continued to share the clue with his alliance (gaining their trust) and kept looking. I’m not sure how long one could keep this up for though. Either way, he’s got an idol, I can’t wait to see how he uses (or misuses) it. I’m sure he said he was going to share it with his alliance but I don’t think I actually saw him tell anyone but Lee he had it. Maybe I missed a scene, you can correct me in the comments below.

Lee’s advantage is a little more interesting in that it is not so common. Though we’ve seen this advantage in previous seasons, I think we’re yet to see it used effectively. Unfortunately with it being in Lee’s hands, it looks like we may not see that this season either. I’d be happy to be proven wrong and to watch Lee use it to bowl a maiden over. I’m hoping that maiden is Flick.

Pink bracelets. Actually I think the less said about that the better.

Now that Saanapu has Conner out of their system I’m really interested to see how the individual game shakes down and maybe see what some of these sleeper players in Lee, El, and JL, and even Matt can do. Sammy’s a fuggin’ write off. I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 16 analysis here!

Episode 8 – ‘Stray Kat Strut’ OR ‘Sitting Duck Flap’

If you’re yet to read the analysis of the previous episode, then much like Nick said to JL, “maybe you should look it up” here.

An episode without a tribal council would usually mean little to talk about, in this case it actually means we could potentially talk all night. Unfortunately I try to have some sort of life outside of Survivor (otherwise I’d find myself divorced, again), so rather than run through what this shake up means for each of our top eighteen players, I’ll just focus on a few of the major players.

Merge & Purge

14191917_828102860658938_2808354114822451383_n — **I am very disappointed they didn’t let the tribes come up with their own new names…what the shit?!**

So it came as no surprise that the big twist that was coming tonight was the merge from three tribes to two. Once J-LaP announced that the tribes weren’t playing for immunity it was pretty clear that the advantage was the ability to choose your tribe. I don’t want to analyse The Pu’s choices too much as my gut feeling is that no matter how you use that advantage there will be pros and cons. Especially when you are put on the spot, you’re never going to be able to compare and contrast every possible tribe permutation. I guess it seemed smart enough for The Pu to go with a mix of ex-Pu, strength for challenges and someone who would be easy to shaft.

Nick’s shit list

Nick really is feeling bitter about the way he was booted from Vavau. While I’m a big believer in doing whatever you can to get rid of the people that want you gone, I do also believe that if you let your emotions blinker your vision in the game, you can be more easily blindsided. I’m not sure exactly what he was trying to do by pulling JL aside for a chat, but with Nick being Nick, it was never going to end happily. Did make for some fun television though. So what does Nick need to do from here to extend his life in the tribe? Well, as long as he sticks with the pre-merge Pu he should be safe for at least one tribal, if they choose to get rid of JL. I don’t see him having much life past that though. The way things are I suspect that move would see him on the bottom of the remaining eight. If he is to stick around any longer than this he needs to start looking for cracks in the original Pu. Though JL could be a number that he could use to help him switch up the numbers in Pu, I think it is just too dangerous to keep her around, she hates him too much. Given that (we know) Brick doesn’t want Matt long term, and Matt has already shown that he is wary of Flick (though it seems currently that he believes is comfortable with his Angels, more on that later) perhaps he can wriggle into that crack. Regardless which road he takes I am interested to see just what he is going to do to stick around. He will need to shake things up at some stage, and being Nick, I’m sure he will.

Jennah-Louise

Where to for JL though? Wow, I don’t know. Unfortunately she has already burned the Nick bridge. While we don’t know much about their dynamic when they where in Vavau together, I think JL actually had an opportunity here to buddy up to Nick, shift the blame for the Nick vote onto one of the other Vavauans. Of course emotions and pride got in the way of smart play and it didn’t pan out that way. Now she’s between a rock and Rohan’s abs. Maybe she could hook up with Brick? Brooke sounds a little hurt that Matt got his way and they kept Nick instead of Teags, so maybe if JL went to Brick they might let JL take the place that Teags was to have. Though we know that that particular place was only ever going to be temporary, I guess it’s a start for her. I just can’t see what JL’s move is. Have you any ideas?

Matt

14184337_828101813992376_1039089828047450609_n — **There’s reason we barely saw Charlie in Charlie’s Angels, he was a douche…**

Matt, Matt, Matt… We had such high hopes for you. I’m hoping you can still turn it around but every episode it seems you just show us less and less.

“Roll up, roll up and watch the strategy disappear right before your very eyes!”

Dude, please get back with Sammy, actually work him properly rather than just buddy him. Get Lee and Maybe El on your side and break up Brick. For someone who makes a living with misdirection, it seems that you’re not realising that you yourself are being misdirected, by bosom. My Dad used to say “if you’re going to go out you might as well go out smiling” (that’s a lie, my Dad never actually said that, mostly he just said “give that Survivor shit a rest and get into a real sport, like drinking”). That was a cheap shot, both at my Dad and at Matt. We don’t even know, or care, if Matt is a fan of the bosom. What we do know is that it looks like he thinks he has his shit on lock with those women and if that IS what he is thinking, not only is he mistaken, but he doesn’t deserve the title of Survivor. Brick has already fought against him and he knows it, he just seems to have a short memory.

El to the Lee

Of all of the players in The New Pu I would argue that Lee and El are in the best position. All they need to do is sit back and let people come to them and assess what their best move is from there. I hope for their sake that they realise this. If you think I’m wrong about this, please let me know what I’m not seeing in the comments.

Have a Break, have a KateKat.

Kat got game bitches! Finally she has an opportunity to get her claws out and start playing this game. And don’t she just look like the Kat that got the cream? I would argue that Kate is in a very similar situation to Kat, kind of on the outside of the core alliance, with little she could do in her old tribe. Merge holds a lot of potential for KateKat, as long as they can identify those in the new Vavau who also need some direction, they can scoop them up and get some numbers. It would only take for KateKat to scoop Conner, Roh, and maybe Andrew and the game would really be shaken up. Phoebe’s and Craig’s pre-merge position of power would be made more impotent than a quadriplegic eunuch. I think Kat has it in her to do this, I’m less convinced that Kate does though. Kat would need to take the lead in that duo, which looks like it is the case from what we’ve seen so far. Whatever the case, Vavau is primed for a big shake-up.

Craig

Without JL, Craig has a lot of work to do to secure his life in the tribe. I suspect what he’ll try and do is boost his alliance of three (He, Andy and Sue) to one of five by drawing in perhaps Conner and Kate. We know however that that is not going to work as Andy is gunning for him. Does he suspect that? I don’t know. I get the feeling that Andy has done a pretty good job of maintaining Craig’s sense of security. For some reason in my mind’s eye I see him teaming up with Phoebs, they just seem like a good couplet. For now I might just stop speculating on Craig’s move as a lot could depend on what he does with that idol clue. I would suggest that he find that idol ASAP without letting anyone know about the clue, then he can start plotting what will work for him. Like I said, interesting times ahead at Vavau. I need to point out here how happy I was to see a clue in that buffet. As I said in the previous post, that has been sorely lacking in Survivor up until now, and though we didn’t see any players proactively looking for a clue in the banquet (I’m looking at you Andy!), it was still good to see that promise of the Vavau idol reappear in a classic Survivor way.

RohBe

This switch-up is something of a stitch-up for Phoebs. Having lost her core alliance in El, I’m not quite sure what she is left with. At least she knows that Roh has the idol and she can use this information as leverage in a few ways. Firstly, she could bury the hatchet with Roh and she can use the idol vicariously through him to keep herself safe. I’m not sure that Roh is going to go for that, but at the moment it doesn’t seem like he has much else. Or she can try and form an alliance outside of Aganoa, bringing Kristie with her, and throw some shade at Roh from that side, convincing them that they need to flush his idol. There’s a lot of options here for her. None of them seem particularly strong to me. If ever there was a time to work your magic Phoebe and start bringing the social game that we suspect you have in line with your strategic game, and weasel yourself into something with old Vavau now is the time.

Rohan, you’re in even more dire straits, though at least you have an idol. My thinking is that the best thing for you to do is start looking for where the cracks are in old Vavau and choosing someone to align with, and showing them your idol to solidify trust. Can’t wait to see how this shakes down. Having two hidden immunity idols in one tribe is going to be epic!

Andy

Keep on rocking brother, you’re in a good spot at the moment. Pick your alliance wisely and you’ll take down Craig. Just don’t tip your hand man, or he’ll whip out his idol. Best thing you can do now is show Craig you’re still strong with him so that he’ll either warn you about his idol, or he’ll never see you coming. Like when JL is “wearing it”, sharkskin looks good on you.

Yep, that was a long one. After that, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Check out Episode 9 discussion here!

Survivor analysis by Russell Feathers, an Australian who thinks he has the numbers, but probably is about to have his torch snuffed (not a euphemism).

How to Make a Jury Cringe 101

‘El Yeah

Closing Arguments

I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’, I will not say ‘given the flick’

Given the Flick (oh shit…)

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More torn than Daniel Johns’ old photos of Natalie Imbruglia

For the love of all that is holy, Flick please win immunity!

El flips her shit

Unsportsmanlike Conduct

Disappearing Act

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Knowing the Numbers Well

Game Changer

Bite Me Hard

In Need of Magical Scenarios

Sleeping on a Cloud

Exile on Main Beach

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You Can Call Flick the Pig-Catcher (‘cause she saved Lee’s bacon – I’m so sorry)

The Victim, Playing

Hip to be Square

Floater in the Dunny

Next time on, Survivor

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Flick Flop

Still Floating or Dropping Anchor?

Aganoa, noa, noa. Push pineapple. Shake the tree.

TimTam Sam and Milk ArrowMatt (if you’ve got a better biscuit reference to apply to Matt I’m all ears)

Bye Bye Brooke

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Scary Thoughts

El and back

Taking the LEEd?

FLICK OFF!

Kristie

Scamming Sam

Magic Matt

Brookie has the odds

You Say Goodbye. I JL, oh…

Bonus Round

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“Yeah, but”

She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone…She’s Still Here

Methinks the Lady doth not Protest Enough

Devils Between My Toes

Flippin’ ‘El

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Fall-out Boy (think about it, that works on so many levels, I’m quite proud of myself)

What the Hell Vavau?

Will the Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up

Good Game

Where to from here?

Other Points of Interest

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Merge & Purge

Nick’s shit list

Jennah-Louise

Matt

El to the Lee

Have a Break, have a KateKat.

Craig

RohBe

Andy

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