Tag: council

Episode 11 – ‘Throwing Challenges’ OR ‘Throwing Challengers Under the Bus’

If you’re yet to read my analysis of the previous episode, head on over here.

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Now who’s swimming with the fishes?
Tribal number 10 is in the bag (dammit I could have used a Kat in the bag pun last night!) and we finally say goodbye, some would say sadly, others gleefully, to everybody’s favourite wolf in sheep’s clothing, Andy. So it seems only appropriate that we start discussions this evening by documenting his downfall.

Andrew, “not a flexible guy”

The fish has left the barrel. Though I for one have loved watching Andy since day one, thinking that he had the goods to make it all the way, but as many people much more knowledgable than little old me have said, “timing is everything in this game”, I think Andy even said it once this season. Appropriately, it was Andy’s number one target, Craig that hammered the last nail into his coffin. Did Andy have an opportunity to take Craig out first though? Before I continue I need to acknowledge that for the last 5 or 6 episodes I’ve been commenting that Andy should hold off on making his move. And it’s easy for me to say, after watching the episode, that he needed to make his move tonight. Unfortunately, he didn’t set himself up well to be able to make that move. Let’s start with what happened after the last council. Furious that his name had been written down, he decided to wage war on Kristie. Again, playing with his emotions and not with his head. There was a fantastic opportunity to talk to Kristie and Phoebe (Phistie) after the tribal when they went to the well. Notwithstanding what Old Vavau may have thought of this, ideally this could have been the start of finding a few new recruits to aid his cause. Instead, he chose to brag to camera.

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When he finally did approach Kristie it was too little too late. And what did he offer them as an alternative, Kate? Surely he could see that Kate was their number one ally in the tribe. There was no way Phistie would agree to get rid of Kate. Andy just hasn’t seemed to be playing the same game that he was playing before the tribe swap. Before the tribe swap we saw him talking to and being sociable with everyone on Vavau. Since the tribe swap, and even since Nick and Tegan left, we’ve seen a different Andy, one who only wants to associate with his alliance. Certainly he may have been sociable with the newcomers and we just didn’t see it. My point is that by not playing that social game with everyone that he used to play, he did not have the ability to sway the votes when he needed to. Of course the fact that he was not performing in challenges didn’t help. It almost looked like in that coconut throwing challenge, he was, er, throwing the challenge. So when you add this performance in the challenge to the fact that he doesn’t really have a lot of friends, loyalty is only valuable up to a point. This point. Which is exactly what Craig realised.

You Don’t Want to be on Craig’s List.

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Gesundheit
I am becoming more and more impressed with Craig. He’s fast becoming a favourite to make it close to the end. This was a great move for Craig for a number of reasons. Firstly, he got rid of his number one enemy, Andy, and he may not have even realised it. Even if he didn’t feel Andy was a threat to him yet, I’ve no doubt that he realised that he would be one to him later. Kate and Kristie however, probably don’t pose much of a threat at all (happy to be convinced otherwise in the comments below). By scooping up Kate, who has really been floating for a while, he may have found himself a little puppy to do his bidding later in the game. Again, I may be underestimating Kate. I must say that I was a little surprised that he didn’t let the others know about his decision to vote Andy. Not informing Conner I can understand, given Conner’s track record for starting crazy shit at tribal councils. I’d be interested to see what Sue thinks though. Sue has always said that she is loyal to her five, but Craig may have dented that by not trusting Sue with that information. Perhaps I’m wrong. Perhaps he did tell Sue and she just couldn’t bring herself to writing Andy’s name down. Even if he did tell her I suspect it wouldn’t have made much of a difference. I don’t think that she’s so loyal to Andy that she would have told Andy so that he could switch things, and even if she did, what could Andy actually have done? It seemed that Andy wouldn’t have had time to make a serious move against Craig, especially having not already done the leg work with Phistie or Kate. Craig on the other hand couldn’t have put in more legwork, both literally and figuratively. He has been an absolute mountain in those rope holding challenges, and over the last two episodes we have seen him have multiple, sincere conversations with everyone. Everyone. The work that he did last tribal with both Kate, and Phistie, while it hasn’t actually borne fruit for him, it is certainly blossoming. But where to for him for now?

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All of this time you could have been using it for toilet paper buddy…
It looks like he will be spending a lot of time looking for that idol in the nest episode and understandably so. Without an Andy shield there is potentially a target on his back now. I’m sure he is hoping that Phistie won’t flip on him now. If he is committed to working with them then I guess his only option is to move against Conner. I’m not so sure that he should commit himself to them though. I think that the longer they are around the more power they get, with only six people left in the tribe I would be trying to break up the soPhistieKate trio pronto. How he’s going to do this I’m not sure, and it’s not looking good with Phoebe having the idol.

Phighting Phit (no, this play on ‘f’ won’t end soon)

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“Laters…”
With Phoebe having the idol, and a seemingly solid alliance in Kate and Kristie, she’s gone from being on the bottom of Vavau to being in arguably the best position in Vavau and perhaps even the game right now. But who is her best path to the merge? The soPhistieKate three are a fantastic vehicle for Phoebe to make it to through the merge and all the way to the end. Kate for one seems like she has finally found her tribe in Phistie, and though she is a strong competitor in challenges and seems like a lovely person, she so far hasn’t shown us that she has the head for strategy or the stomach for big moves. I would argue that going against Kate in the final two would be perfect for Phoebe, who has a much better island story than Kate. Kristie seems to be riding this Phoebe thing for everything it’s worth, but given the confessional that we saw about three or four episodes ago, I’m not convinced that she wouldn’t flip on Phoebe if shown a better opportunity. It’s hard to tell. Phoebe may be able to strengthen this alliance with Kristie by giving her the idol, that would certainly show Kristie that Phoebe trusts her and is in her corner and may just win Kristie over 100%. Once soPhistieKate have made it through the merge, they can easily hook up with Lee and El and the game is theirs for the taking. Craig, Sue and Conner by contrast have little to look forward to at merge time.

Where to for Kate?

Lookout lady, if Craig, Sue and Conner see that you are in a trio with Phistie, then they may choose to disable that trio by taking you out. Keep getting close to Phistie, maybe they’ll share with you that they have an idol and this could keep you safe for another tribal. Stick with those two and hopefully you’ll make it through the merge.

Sue and Conner

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If I had a dollar for every time some chump said “dig deep” tonight…
The best that they can hope for now is to see that power now rests with soPhistieKate and make a move with them. For Sue, her best bet would be to make a move against Conner, and hope that Craig makes it through to the merge with her so she at least has a possible trio when added to JL (if she’s still there). For Conner, well I’m not so sure what he can cook up now, in terms of making it through one more tribal he can go with soPhistieKate and vote against whomever they want, beyond that, I can’t see him making it much further unless someone wants to take him under their wing as a goat, which means he might make it to the end but won’t win. I see little hope for him in this game. If you have any idea what possible path he could take to move further in this game please share it in the comments below. Good luck though little buddy.

Saanawho?

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🎤 “Saanapu, Saanapuuuuu, (now we are here) in Saanapuuuu” 🎤
I can’t finish up without at least mentioning that there is a whole other tribe that exists in this game. The Pu. As much as I’d love to see Vavau implode and be decimated before merge, I do miss my Pu. I’m very curious to see what sort of alliances and voting blocks are emerging over there and what other tricks Nick has up his sleeve (Matt isn’t the only magician over there). Until next time, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 12 analysis here!

Episode 10 – ‘Dish Best Served Cold…’ OR ‘Humble Pie’

Want to check out the analysis of the previous episode before you continue? Do so here.

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Kat joins the ‘Overthrown Benevolent Dictators’ Club. Say hello to Kevin Rudd for me.
Another delicious episode served. Let’s go ahead and digest it. It looks like I’ll be writing the word ‘Phoebe’ a lot again tonight. Firstly, how great was Phoebe’s opening piece to camera, admitting that she had been stupid and blind not to see Kat’s backflip, eating a big old slice of humble pie. This was in stark contrast to Kat’s behavior tonight, which was the opposite of eating humble pie. That’s right, regurgitating conceited sandwich. She was just throwing that shit up left, right and centre. I haven’t witnessed so much bile since Stephen Fischbach’s #SevereGastrointestinalDistress. C’mon Kat, I must have said it at least three times already this season, when you are blinkered by revenge and emotions, you get blindsided. Obviously Kat hasn’t been listening to me. I guess she doesn’t have wifi on island. Now Phoebe has distanced herself from the sceptic projectiles Kat is spewing she at least seems in a slightly better position than at the end of last episode. Let’s breakdown just how she made it through yet another tribal.

Clueless, or Batgirl?

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WIth an idol in her hands she bedevils playthings… (No, we’re not off to a good start are we?)

Phoebe must have done a lot of things right tonight, though some of them certainly seem questionable. Firstly, she found the idol. It’s about time we had someone proactive about finding the idol. Desperate times called for desperate measures and Phoebe certainly rose to the challenge. Great work. What about telling Kat and Kristie though that she had it? pheo idol works.gif
I almost shat myself when she did that. After what Kat had done to her last tribal, and after Phoebe telling us that ‘Kat is dead to me’ I was shocked that she would even consider telling Kat she had the idol. We know now that she voted against Kat, but I’m not convinced that she had already decided to do that when she told Kat about the idol. We did see a scene with Phoebe and Craig where Craig had told both Phoebs and Kristie that he would let them know which way old Vavau was voting. Perhaps that’s a scene we didn’t see and this happened before she told Kat about the idol. (Incidentally how beautiful was it to watch Craig switch it up in that scene once Andy appeared? Andy’s BS radar must have been playing up because if that was me mine would have been bing bing binging more than Hector Salamanca!hector.gif). If she had made that decision before telling Kat about the idol, then this may have been a really smart way to dissuade Kat from voting against her, with minimal repercussions as when Kat goes so does one more person who knows/suspects that Phoebs has an idol. Fark it’s risky though. You can’t herd a Kat. My sense is that Phoebs told those women about the idol moments before heading to tribal, not allowing Kat to use that knowledge in some other way.

There’s also the possibility that Phoebs switched her vote to Kat after hearing what Kat had to say at the tribal, that she had approached Vavau and had told them she was with them. If this is the case though it would seem like potentially a throw away vote if no-one else is voting Kat, unless of course Phoebs decides to play her idol, which she doesn’t. I suspect it’s more likely that Craig told her that the play was against Kat, or she found out some other way. Conner? Did Andy tell her to sure himself up for his Craig coup? I’d like to think that Phoebs was gunning for Kat from the moment Kat wrote Roh’s name down last tribal. If so, damn girl that was stone cold! What a way to serve your revenge! I guess we’ll never know the mechanics behind Phoebe’s move, but it’s fun to speculate.

Kat Gets Creamed

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I’ll let you caption this one yourself. I’m not going there…
After the shenanigans of last tribal it was pretty clear that old Vavau just wanted to use Kat to split up RohBe and flush an idol and then they would be done with her. If Kat was ever going to make it through another tribal she needed to do more post-RohGo than preen, prance, and crow around camp. Not only was it not becoming of her to her tribe mates, but it actually doesn’t achieve anything. Things may have been different had the tribal not flushed the idol. Old Vavau may still have had a use for her then. If ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ were candy and nuts then Kat may still be surviving. I don’t know that there’s actually anything she could have done to save herself tonight short of using Phoebs idol against her, but it seems she was not given the opportunity to do that. I would actually argue that her biggest downfall was not knowing what was going on around camp and generally feeling she was safe and in with Old Vavau. Some tribe awareness would have gone a long way tonight. If she had even the slightest hint that votes were coming her way she could have at least made a scene at tribal, outed Phoebs as having the idol and maybe, just maybe, she could have deflected some votes. Perhaps Andy really was a solid plan B for Craig and Kat, and dropping such a bomb might actually spook them enough to enact plan B. ‘Ifs’ & ‘buts’ huh? Was Andy really on the chopping block though?

Animal Man

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Will tomorrow night’s episode serve up some Andy steak?
Though I usually don’t like to discuss the show itself and the editing, preferring mainly to focus on the gameplay, one couldn’t tonight escape the rough treatment Andy was getting. According to who you ask on any given day the man is a shark, a rat, a sly-dog, a sloth or a snake with the personality of a fish. The man is a walking fucking menagerie. We also learned that when Andy suits up to ‘get down to business’ he puts on his hat. Just what fucking job does this man do where he needs a special business hat?! If I were more talented here is where I would post a photo of am Andy-faced rat wearing a hat and shooting fish in a barrel. Unfortunately I’m not that talented so you’ll just have to use your imagination. For those that have none, trust me, it’s a fucking hilarious image. Anyhow, whether he just dodged a bullet tonight or not, it appears that not everyone is as down with Andy as we first thought. Perhaps he ain’t playing the under the radar game as much as he suspects. In my experience rat-faced sly dog snake shark emus generally don’t blend in to the background. His name was thrown around a lot. First by Kate. I can’t get a read on Kate, was this her attempt at employing some strategy? Craig does a great job of listening to her and telling her what an awesome idea she has had, but I don’t think we see the idea of booting Andy discussed with anyone else other than Aganoans, which leads me to believe that this was a red herring for Kat, and for the audience. What we’re left with though is a pissed off Andy, and that is one particular zoological oddity that I would not want to mess with. Again, if Andy’s smart, and fuck knows he’s told us often enough that he is, he will not let those emotions get in the way of his strategy. Though I’m all for getting rid of people who want you gone, I don’t think that Kristie actually has the power to do so. He’s much better off taking the opportunity now to strike against Craig if that is his main target. If he doesn’t move soon Craig is going to scoop up Kristie and Phoebs and use them for his own purposes, of which we are sadly unaware. What would Phoebe and Kristie’s (Phistie?) best course of action now be?

Phistie of Phury

I suspect that now that Kristie has lost her Kat (a real shame for me as I wanted them to hook up with Kate so that I could use ‘KKKlan’) what is she likely to do? Well she has told us in the past just how dubious she is of trusting Phoebe, and she should be even more so now that she contributed to voting out Kat (although Kristie might not actually know that, and if I were Phoebe I wouldn’t be telling her). But she may not have many other options. imageWe have seen Kristie try and bond with Kate and given their personalities the alliance is not inconceivable, in fact it may actually be a great move for them. Especially if the two of them can somehow get Conner, who in my mind and the mind of Andy is a floater. The three of them could then be quite the power trio (please tell me your suggestion for power trio names in the comments below, all I’m coming up with is Nirvana and we know how that turned out), and I’m sure Kristie could find some way to leverage her knowledge of Phoebe’s idol. Either in recruiting Phoebs, or outing it’s existence to Old Vavau to create a new target. Phoebs may actually choose to tell Kristie that the idol was all a ruse to get Kristie to board her train. Though I suspect that such a move would actually only reinforce in Kristie the idea that Phoebe is dangerous and not to be trusted and will work against Phoebe in the long run. Unless of course Phoebe’s move now is to shift the target to Kristie so that she can see out another tribal and get one step closer to the merge. Whatever that case we can see there are a plethora of options for Phistie and I for one can’t wait to see what they come up with.

So what about Conner and Kate?

As mentioned above, if they can get together they can actually have some power in this tribe. They’re both reasonable at challenges and it seems no one has anything against them. I think the best move for them is to a) hook up, and then b) just sit back and let the rest of Vavau come to them. You’ve got Phistie looking for some foothold to stay in the tribe, and you’ve got Andy on the hunt for his big game. Sit back and let those two sides plus Craig come to you, and then assess your options. There are pros and cons for all of those and going down that particular rabbit hole is too much of a head spin for me this late at night. I have to get sleep at some stage. Tell me what you think.

Hand on the Rung (please singalong to the Paul McCartney & Wings song ‘Band on the Run’ or I’ve just wasted a pun)

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This is what happens when you rely on google for all your jokes…
Just a quick note regarding tonight’s immunity challenge before I go. Damn that looked like a fun challenge. Great to see Matt and Nick working together on the rung puzzle, can’t wait to see which of these two win puzzle wars once the merge happens. Whenever I’ve seen this particular type of puzzle on Survivor in the past I’ve always wondered why nobody does the puzzle outside of the frame first. At least tonight it sounded like Craig had the same idea. Perhaps they’re not allowed to.

Until tomorrow night’s episode of ‘Everybody Hates Andy’, I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 11 analysis here!

Episode 9 – ‘Sharpest Duck in the Barrel’ or ‘Shooting Pencils out of a Case’

If you’re yet to read the analysis of the last episode, you can do so here.

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When a model doesn’t want to see their headshot…
I can say that I honestly was not sure what was going to happen at that tribal, but I think the one question we all what answered is, how did the ducks even get in the barrel? Were they put there specifically with the purpose of being shot out? Is there a lid on the barrel, can they not fly out? Perhaps their wings are clipped so they can’t fly out and they have to be shot out. Perhaps they’re just there eating fish, or monkeys. Whatever the case, this episode was full of cliche clangers and aghast Aganoans.

Phoe-be or not Phoe-be, that is the question.

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At a loss for words…and allies, and idols, and pencil sharpeners.
Gotta say I’m shocked that Roh gave Phoebs the idol. Everything that we’ve seen from Rohan so far has suggested that the idol was for him and him alone. So when we saw that he had given it to Phoebe, I was taken aback. Initially I thought, this could be a good move if he had thrown the rest of original Vavau off the scent, sending one of them packing and moving RohBe closer to being a power couple in Vavau. But why would he choose Phoebs? Phoebs has shown how manipulative and strategic she can be and we know that she wants Rohan gone. I guess he doesn’t have many other options, but since merge it doesn’t seem like he’s worked hard to create other options either. His attempt at forming a bond with Conner and Andrew was clunky to say the least. Andy probably said it best when he labelled it delusional.

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Roh may have been stupid to let that slip, but ten points to Sue for asking!
Strangely, it wasn’t Phoebe that was his downfall. It was Kat. How could Rohan not see that Kat wanted out of old Aganoa? And what was with his vote against Kat? Did he think that he had another person voting Kat and if so whom? I can’t see what he was trying to do there. I’d love to know. I don’t even need to get started on the fact that he told people he had the idol! Also he gave it to Phoebs before tribal! His departure is all on him. Sorry Roh. Now where does this leave Phoebs?

Bottom Phoeder (that’s right, you get two Phoebe puns for the price of one).

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Yeah you better run!
So it seems now that Phoebe is up shit creek without an idol. Pretty sure she has no hope of getting Kat back, which could also mean no Kristie. Who else could she try and team with? It might seem from her point of view that old Vavau are a tight five, we know however that that is not the case. Andy is gunning for Craig, but wisely the shark is not ready to pounce just yet (you read me right, a pouncing shark)! Doesn’t seem that Conner knows what he is doing over there and just hoping that while Aganoans are there he is safe. I do have to give him some credit though for the way he played Roh tonight. Realising that Roh was vulnerable and just teasing piece after piece of info out of him. If that was by design (and it wouldn’t surprise me if it wasn’t), then well done boy. It’s not outside of the realms of possibility that Phoebe could start swaying him. If she is going to do this however she would need to change her approach significantly, we’ve seen what happens when someone comes to Conner with devious plans. She’ll need to be much more subtle than that, and as I’ve suggested before, find out what he wants to do and find a way to work with it rather than tell him what to do. I hope for her sake she can see that. Even with Conner, the numbers are still stacked against her. The best that she can do is paint Kat as a target and hope that she can find that crack in Vavau (or that idol). If she managed to get Roh to give her the idol, I suspect she can find a way to shift the target to Kat.

Kat Scratches Back

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Kat goals…
So last week I said “Kat got game!”. This week I take it back. Kat, where do I start? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, when you get blinkered by your emotions you get blindsided. I don’t think this was a good move for you Kat. What have you been left with Kat? You’ve got Kristie, and maybe KateKat is still a possibility. That’s only three against four and Phoebs. A very vulnerable position. Great work from Craig in recognising that Kat was a flipper, and using her to flush the idol. Given that Craig, and it seems the rest of old Vavau  know how much of a loose canon she is, it’s unlikely that she’ll make it much further in this tribe. Unless….

Duck Hunt

Though both Kat and Andy have prey in their sites, the way they take their prey down couldn’t be more different. Kat, playing with her emotions, took out Rohan first chance she had. Shotgunning spectacularly and not caring who the shrapnel hits. The backfire could be injurious to her game. Then we have Andy. Sharklike, drifting along with the current, always knowing where Craig is, but lying in wait until he is separated from the rest of the ducks/albatrosses/seals/pick your animal that fits in a barrel. He knew that tonight was not the night to go for Craig. It would open up a big crack for RohBe to fit in, potentially forcing him to the outs. So is now the time to strike? I don’t see the rest of old Vavau moving against anyone but Aganoa, they all look pretty comfortable in their little five, with no need to rock the boat.

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Cue Jaws music…
Let’s play this out in our heads… If Andy were to employ Kat as his zapper take her out a-hunting, and Kristie as duck hunt dog, then he has three. He only needs another two to take Craig. Phoebe is there for the plucking but I suspect that he is wary of giving her a foothold. We know that Andy has already flagged getting rid of Craig with Sue, so potentially there’s another one. I suspect Conner will do whatever he needs to do to make sure it’s not him, so potentially he is there for the scooping also. And last week it looked like and I hoped that KateKat would be a thing, though Kate may be less willing to align herself with Kat now that she has seen Kat’s claws, yet still a possibility. If, possible idol notwithstanding, Andy does go ahead with a charge against Craig next tribal, then I don’t see much left in the way of negative repercussions for Andy within Vavau. But does he need to do it now? Does he suspect that he would find himself in Craig’s firing line soon? The more I think about this the more torn I am. While last week I thought that Craig took a big hit in losing JL, he still seems like he has solid alliances within Vavau. He also has been a challenge beast. If Andy pounces now then we have a number of people who know that Andy is a playa, and potentially a threat. Ideally he’d want to take down Craig without coming off like the strategic mastermind, but I don’t know if there’s a way that he can do that. Without knowing more about how tight both Andy’s and Craig’s alliances are, there’s no way I can confidently say when Andy should strike. Strike too soon, possible target on your own back. Wait too long, Craig gains more influence. One thing’s for sure, this is the biggest battle playing out in Samoa right now, for me at least.

Jolly JL

A quick note on JL before I wrap this up. We saw a big bright smile on JL’s face tonight as she tells us how she is massaging her way in to The Pu through Kylie. Good luck lady. You can’t spell ‘Kryptonite ally’ without ‘Partly not Kylie’.

I’d like to point out that I actually met Rohan at Survivor auditions earlier in the year and he told me there that he thought if anyone would win the game, I would. So I’m taking this as me making it to at least final 18!!

It’s late and I got nothing else for you but even more shite anagrams. Head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

 

Episode 10 analysis here!

 

 

 

 

 

Episode 8 – ‘Stray Kat Strut’ OR ‘Sitting Duck Flap’

If you’re yet to read the analysis of the previous episode, then much like Nick said to JL, “maybe you should look it up” here.

An episode without a tribal council would usually mean little to talk about, in this case it actually means we could potentially talk all night. Unfortunately I try to have some sort of life outside of Survivor (otherwise I’d find myself divorced, again), so rather than run through what this shake up means for each of our top eighteen players, I’ll just focus on a few of the major players.

Merge & Purge

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I am very disappointed they didn’t let the tribes come up with their own new names…what the shit?!
So it came as no surprise that the big twist that was coming tonight was the merge from three tribes to two. Once J-LaP announced that the tribes weren’t playing for immunity it was pretty clear that the advantage was the ability to choose your tribe. I don’t want to analyse The Pu’s choices too much as my gut feeling is that no matter how you use that advantage there will be pros and cons. Especially when you are put on the spot, you’re never going to be able to compare and contrast every possible tribe permutation. I guess it seemed smart enough for The Pu to go with a mix of ex-Pu, strength for challenges and someone who would be easy to shaft.

Nick’s shit list

Nick really is feeling bitter about the way he was booted from Vavau. While I’m a big believer in doing whatever you can to get rid of the people that want you gone, I do also believe that if you let your emotions blinker your vision in the game, you can be more easily blindsided. I’m not sure exactly what he was trying to do by pulling JL aside for a chat, but with Nick being Nick, it was never going to end happily. Did make for some fun television though. So what does Nick need to do from here to extend his life in the tribe? Well, as long as he sticks with the pre-merge Pu he should be safe for at least one tribal, if they choose to get rid of JL. I don’t see him having much life past that though. The way things are I suspect that move would see him on the bottom of the remaining eight. If he is to stick around any longer than this he needs to start looking for cracks in the original Pu. Though JL could be a number that he could use to help him switch up the numbers in Pu, I think it is just too dangerous to keep her around, she hates him too much. Given that (we know) Brick doesn’t want Matt long term, and Matt has already shown that he is wary of Flick (though it seems currently that he believes is comfortable with his Angels, more on that later) perhaps he can wriggle into that crack. Regardless which road he takes I am interested to see just what he is going to do to stick around. He will need to shake things up at some stage, and being Nick, I’m sure he will.

Jennah-Louise

Where to for JL though? Wow, I don’t know. Unfortunately she has already burned the Nick bridge. While we don’t know much about their dynamic when they where in Vavau together, I think JL actually had an opportunity here to buddy up to Nick, shift the blame for the Nick vote onto one of the other Vavauans. Of course emotions and pride got in the way of smart play and it didn’t pan out that way. Now she’s between a rock and Rohan’s abs. Maybe she could hook up with Brick? Brooke sounds a little hurt that Matt got his way and they kept Nick instead of Teags, so maybe if JL went to Brick they might let JL take the place that Teags was to have. Though we know that that particular place was only ever going to be temporary, I guess it’s a start for her. I just can’t see what JL’s move is. Have you any ideas?

Matt

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There’s reason we barely saw Charlie in Charlie’s Angels, he was a douche…
Matt, Matt, Matt… We had such high hopes for you. I’m hoping you can still turn it around but every episode it seems you just show us less and less.

“Roll up, roll up and watch the strategy disappear right before your very eyes!”

Dude, please get back with Sammy, actually work him properly rather than just buddy him. Get Lee and Maybe El on your side and break up Brick. For someone who makes a living with misdirection, it seems that you’re not realising that you yourself are being misdirected, by bosom. My Dad used to say “if you’re going to go out you might as well go out smiling” (that’s a lie, my Dad never actually said that, mostly he just said “give that Survivor shit a rest and get into a real sport, like drinking”). That was a cheap shot, both at my Dad and at Matt. We don’t even know, or care, if Matt is a fan of the bosom. What we do know is that it looks like he thinks he has his shit on lock with those women and if that IS what he is thinking, not only is he mistaken, but he doesn’t deserve the title of Survivor. Brick has already fought against him and he knows it, he just seems to have a short memory.

El to the Lee

Of all of the players in The New Pu I would argue that Lee and El are in the best position. All they need to do is sit back and let people come to them and assess what their best move is from there. I hope for their sake that they realise this. If you think I’m wrong about this, please let me know what I’m not seeing in the comments.

Have a Break, have a KateKat.

Kat got game bitches! Finally she has an opportunity to get her claws out and start playing this game. And don’t she just look like the Kat that got the cream? I would argue that Kate is in a very similar situation to Kat, kind of on the outside of the core alliance, with little she could do in her old tribe. Merge holds a lot of potential for KateKat, as long as they can identify those in the new Vavau who also need some direction, they can scoop them up and get some numbers. It would only take for KateKat to scoop Conner, Roh, and maybe Andrew and the game would really be shaken up. Phoebe’s and Craig’s pre-merge position of power would be made more impotent than a quadriplegic eunuch. I think Kat has it in her to do this, I’m less convinced that Kate does though. Kat would need to take the lead in that duo, which looks like it is the case from what we’ve seen so far. Whatever the case, Vavau is primed for a big shake-up.

Craig

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Much like vegetable crudités, this scene was delicious.
Without JL, Craig has a lot of work to do to secure his life in the tribe. I suspect what he’ll try and do is boost his alliance of three (He, Andy and Sue) to one of five by drawing in perhaps Conner and Kate. We know however that that is not going to work as Andy is gunning for him. Does he suspect that? I don’t know. I get the feeling that Andy has done a pretty good job of maintaining Craig’s sense of security. For some reason in my mind’s eye I see him teaming up with Phoebs, they just seem like a good couplet. For now I might just stop speculating on Craig’s move as a lot could depend on what he does with that idol clue. I would suggest that he find that idol ASAP without letting anyone know about the clue, then he can start plotting what will work for him. Like I said, interesting times ahead at Vavau. I need to point out here how happy I was to see a clue in that buffet. As I said in the previous post, that has been sorely lacking in Survivor up until now, and though we didn’t see any players proactively looking for a clue in the banquet (I’m looking at you Andy!), it was still good to see that promise of the Vavau idol reappear in a classic Survivor way.

RohBe

This switch-up is something of a stitch-up for Phoebs. Having lost her core alliance in El, I’m not quite sure what she is left with. At least she knows that Roh has the idol and she can use this information as leverage in a few ways. Firstly, she could bury the hatchet with Roh and she can use the idol vicariously through him to keep herself safe. I’m not sure that Roh is going to go for that, but at the moment it doesn’t seem like he has much else. Or she can try and form an alliance outside of Aganoa, bringing Kristie with her, and throw some shade at Roh from that side, convincing them that they need to flush his idol. There’s a lot of options here for her. None of them seem particularly strong to me. If ever there was a time to work your magic Phoebe and start bringing the social game that we suspect you have in line with your strategic game, and weasel yourself into something with old Vavau now is the time.

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At a loss for words, and allies.
Rohan, you’re in even more dire straits, though at least you have an idol. My thinking is that the best thing for you to do is start looking for where the cracks are in old Vavau and choosing someone to align with, and showing them your idol to solidify trust. Can’t wait to see how this shakes down. Having two hidden immunity idols in one tribe is going to be epic!

Andy

Keep on rocking brother, you’re in a good spot at the moment. Pick your alliance wisely and you’ll take down Craig. Just don’t tip your hand man, or he’ll whip out his idol. Best thing you can do now is show Craig you’re still strong with him so that he’ll either warn you about his idol, or he’ll never see you coming. Like when JL is “wearing it”, sharkskin looks good on you.

Yep, that was a long one. After that, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Check out Episode 9 discussion here!

 

Episode 7 – ‘Telling Whoppers’ OR ‘Would You Like Lies With That?’

If you missed my analysis of the previous episode, you can get into it here.

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The Last Saanapu. We expect a merge tomorrow!

How Now less-Brown Vavau?

Before we get into The Pu, last post I said I was interested to see what was going to go down in Vavau now that Andy has shown the audience his hand in terms of flipping on his alliance and eliminating Craig. We got to see a little more of this at the start of the episode. He finally actually starts putting his plan into action with step one, talking to Conner and Sam, who quite wisely, seem to be just hanging back and waiting for the tribe to come to them. We also see Kate doing the same thing, though for mine this was done a little more subtly, but actually less convincingly. If I were Sam and Conner I’m not sure which of the two I might align with. Given the way that Andy approached them I would imagine that their impression of Andy could be that he is a strategic mind. Though Kate was a lot more subtle, she for mine gave off a very ‘maybe’ vibe when she spoke to them, I would have less confidence that she is willing to go with me and also less confidence that she has any power to do anything. So in one way they are in a good position, if they can work it to have both Kate and Andy vote their way then suddenly they have the numbers to flip it and vote Craig, Sue, or Jennah-Louise. Do Craig, Sue and Jennah-Lousie have any clue what is happening in the background? I guess time will tell. I’m glad they didn’t go to tribal yet, I’m happy to watch this particular boil fester more so that when it finally pops, everybody ends up with mess on their face. Speaking of…

Armpit of Despair

This post wouldn’t be complete without some mention of Vavau’s honorary eighth member, Violent Femme. The blister in the sun. To be honest this whole section took up way too much airtime for my taste. This would have been ok had Kate gone home, but instead things happened differently.

Pu in a Pickle

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All eyes on Nick. Where he goes from here is anyone’s guess.
Pu’s physical weakness since losing Sam and Conner was evidenced by them losing the immunity challenge despite Nick’s best efforts, and being sent to tribal. Unsurprisingly, this led to us seeing Nick scramble to keep his head above water. He comes up with a two pronged plan. Prong A, leverage the fact that he has been valuable around camp and in challenges. Prong B, convince the rest of the tribe to split the vote to flush the idol, and send the other vote Tegan’s way. To me this was unexpected as we’d heard in the lead up to this that Nick thought Teags was his strongest ally. Good play though. He clearly saw that the threesome of Brick and Matt were not going to be split up (though I’m surprised that Flick still trusts Matt given he voted against her two tribals ago), and with Kylie having an idol, it came down to he and Tegan. So he had little choice but to throw her under the pus, er bus. Kylie once again showed that she really isn’t or can’t play a strategic game. Perhaps her strategy was just use her idol to get through to merge and start from scratch. If so, it worked. Hopefully for her she can actually form an alliance tomorrow when we see the three tribes merge into two (unless we see another crazy twist).

TeGone

Unlike Nick, Tegan ingratiates herself into her tribe by playing a social game. Since episode one I and many others both in game and out have said that Nick was overplaying it. Tonight we saw how just how striking the contrast between Nick’s overplaying and Tegan’s underplaying (?) is. I was watching thinking that this would work in Tegan’s favour. How wrong I was. But just because I was wrong doesn’t mean that Pu was right. Was this the right move or the wrong move for The Pu? Let’s compare the pros and cons of keeping Nick against the pros and cons of keeping Tegan. If you keep Nick, it’s possible that post-merge he is a bigger target, which takes a vote off you for at least one tribal. However, strategically it could be argued that Nick actually is a bigger threat. You know he’s going to stop at nothing to get as far as he can. And while I’ve said before that there is no way that he will win the game, he only needs to make it through one tribal more than Matt or Brick for it to be proven a bad move for them.

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Footage of Nick explaining why he would want to keep Tegan around.
If you keep Tegan, then arguably you could be more comfortable that she is not going to do something unpredictable and maybe you can actually have an alliance with her. Other than Nick she has no-one else in the game, so once Nick goes she is easy for Matt and Brick to bring into the fold as a tight number. Perhaps they thought though that if this were the case she would recognise that she was on the bottom of that particular four and try and find a way to flip it. What’s more likely, and more stupid, is that they kept Nick because he is better at challenges and they can’t afford to lose another challenge. Well, that backfired now that the three tribes are about to merge into two. Sure, they didn’t know that a merge was coming, but they fuggin should have! History tells us that in seasons with three tribes, they will generally merge into two once the number of players remaining is two more than would be in two tribes. In this case, 8 per tribe plus two, which is where we’re at. The fact that nobody is (seemingly) talking or thinking about when the merge will come is disappointing to me.

Whopper Clue-nior?

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BEEF! TOMATO! LETTUCE! MAYO! BUN! By your powers combined I AM CAPTAIN WHOPPER JUNIOR!
Disappointing too is that no-one in Vavau looks for an idol clue in their reward. Vavau is the only  tribe who haven’t found their camp’s hidden immunity idol. As this is the last reward before merge this would be the perfect opportunity to hide the clue somewhere in the reward. It’s great for hungry Jack’s too, as it would result in lot’s of close-ups of their product and packaging. Anyway I’m not going to tell you how to do your job channel ten, and I understand that if you’re hungry and malnourished and seeing a burger for the first time in weeks, then looking for clues might not be top of mind. It’s easy for me to sit on my comfy couch with a bellyful of bratwurst and sauerkraut and judge Vavau for not thinking game instead of food. Still…FUCKING HELL HAVE ANY OF THESE MORONS ACTUALLY WATCHED SURVIVOR? That’s enough ranting from me, I’ve got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Get your analysis of Episode 8 here! 

Episode 6 – ‘Exposing Cracks & Licking Rope’ OR ‘Pack Your Ba(g)z’

If you want to catch up on my analysis of last week’s episodes, you can do so here.

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The only non-white colour disappears from Craig’s “eclectic box of crayons”

After the twists and turns of the last three episodes, it was a welcome relief to have an episode free of surprises and audience blindsides. Not only did it make things easier for my fragile, sleep deprived sensitivities, but it also meant that we finally got to see some gameplay in the Vavau tribe, which has been sorely lacking in the series up until this episode.

Conner & Sam

With Conner and Sam deported to Vavau, I thought we’d see some more of the Conner hustle. Him understanding that he is on the wrong side of the numbers, trying desperately to shake things up to keep himself alive in the game. Whether by design or by default, we didn’t see that from him, and that really worked in his favour. As I was watching things play out on camp, and with it initially looking like Conner was going to go, I started thinking whether Conner had made the right move in bringing Sam over. sam-conner.gifI think I understand why he did it, because at the point that he had to make that decision Sam was arguably his closest ally in the game. It just made me think that it may have been prudent to bring over someone that was going to be less of an asset to Vavau than Sam is. Regardless of whether or not it was his best move, I can’t really judge his decision harshly. He was forced to make a snap decision without any forewarning, you’d have to go with your gut in that situation. As I was saying though, I thought it was smart of him not to try and hustle as I suspect that would surely have led to him being voted out tonight. Vavau just got rid of a big strategic player in Nick, they don’t want to replace him with another one in Conner. Had they seen any hint of this in Conner, there’s no doubt he would have been given the boot. Instead, Conner played the ‘please keep me around, I will be an asset and be in your debt’ card. A move which in the past I would have thought had no hope of having any influence whatsoever, but here seems to have actually kept him in the game. It certainly seemed like before he made this speech he would be going home tonight. He sincerely worked those naive little puppy dog eyes and it paid big dividends, with the tribe ultimately sending Baz packing. But was this a good move for the tribe? More on that below. Sam, does nothing, and that works out just fine for him. I’m disappointed in Sam. All we saw was him try and find out what was going on through Kate, arguably the least ‘in the know’ member of old Vavau. Sam, it’s about time we actually started seeing some gameplay from you…

The Great White Shark

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As we’ve suspected all along, Andrew got game! Firstly, we see him casually talking with every member of his tribe today. It’s pretty clear to astute observers looking at these relationships that his social game is strong, something that I was worried about as we haven’t really seen evidence of this before. But we also get some meaningful face time, where we learn that he is a shark and Craig is his prey. While I’m watching this I’m thinking ‘YES!’ we are finally seeing the emergence of his strategy, but at the same time I’m yelling at the screen “NOT YET ANDREW!!!”. There was no way that a move against Craig was going to work this early. Especially when everybody is already feeling conflicted about Barry vs Conner. I think I can see what he was thinking, that there’s some new blood and some new numbers here, maybe he can use those to his advantage. Smartly, he assesses where this move would sit with his current alliance before talking to Conner and Sam. Double smartly and doubly smart, when Sue warns him against voting off Craig, he drops it.

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“You wanna start some shit boy? Didn’t think so…”

I am interested about Sue knowing that he was going to talk Craig, makes me think there have been some conversations there that we’ve not been privy to. There’s obviously a lot more going on in this four than we’ve been led to believe. Perhaps there was more discussion leading up to the Nick vote than we were shown. I guess when you haven’t gone to tribal for two weeks, you can’t help but start running multiple scenarios in your head and this may be evidence that Andrew has started to form an alliance within that core alliance of four. Clearly much smarter than Matt’s effort last week, who showed us he had not even thought of a plan B. Damn I hope Vavau go to tribal tomorrow night so that I can see more of this. I should point out though that I don’t really see why Andrew thinks Craig is a threat. I can see why Nick was, Craig not so much. I guess it will become apparent once we see some more of Craig in action.

The Baz Boot

I intimated above that I wasn’t convinced that getting rid of Barry was right for Vavau. Though I think it was right for Andrew’s purposes, as he now has the option of using the old Pu’s as his new crew for the Craig coup (and my son says I can’t rap, h’yeah right), I really don’t see the reason that you would get rid of Baz, unless you felt that his vote randomiser was trained on you. Even if it is, unless he has people with him, which he doesn’t, then, much like a weasel with a rolly-ball, there is no power behind his chaos. Much better to keep him around until merge, where his vote is actually useful as you know he won’t vote a Vavau. Give me your thoughts below?

What Would Sue Do?

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A more colourful Vavau?

Now that we know that Andrew is starting to position himself to get rid of what he sees as a threat, I do wonder what the rest of the Vavau four is thinking? I come to the conclusion that we haven’t seen enough of them to know. They seem tight enough, and there’s enough of them that they could comfortably make it through to first merge without any of them going home, provided that if they do go to tribal they just boot Conner or Sam. As they are this tight, I suspect that may actually be the best move. Stick with the four until merge. As much as I’d love to see Andrew overthrow Craig, I’m just not sure where it would put him, and Sue if she chooses to go along with it. It makes them much weaker going into the merge. We also know that Sue is seen by Nick, and maybe Tegan, as not trustworthy given what has happened to them, if she meets up with them again and Craig is no longer around, she will be seen as a threat. Maybe that is what Andrew is counting on, that it will look like Sue is masterminding this. As far as Jennah Louise goes, I have no idea where in the four she stands, closer to Craig, or closer to Sue/Andrew. Again, I’m hanging out to see more of Vavau in the episodes to come. That’s enough Vavau for now, how about a quick discussion on the little we saw of Saanapu and Aganoa.

Nick is a Playa!

It was bloody delicious when we saw Tegan talking with Brooke about how Nick had chatted up the two of them (if you missed this tasty morsel, or want to savour it agin, do so here). I said it last post and I’m even more confident now, Nick will not win this game. Great pick up from Tegan to see that Brooke didn’t trust Nick, and she started making moves to distance herself from him. Though I don’t think she could crack the Brick (see previous post), she could certainly be the wasp nest sticking to it while the season is right.

Pulling Weeds and Planting Seeds

 

I’ll finish off with a quick acknowledgement of Kristie tonight. Kristie tonight reminded me very much of Aubry from the most recent season of the US version of Survivor. Started as a neurotic, paranoid and anxious ball of cry, and is now starting to show us that she has had some strategic thoughts. I get it. I think I would be the same in some ways. It could take me a while to get my bearings and get comfortable in a new environment with new people too. I’m so glad that she is still here. The way we saw her subtly start building the relationship with Phoebe was very encouraging. To me she came across as very human and genuine in her conversation with Phoebe, yet she knew that Phoebe was not to be trusted. While I don’t necessarily think that Kristie has moved into a threesome with Phoebe and her El-iance, she certainly showed that she has what it takes to form a strategic pairing with someone, she just needs to find fertile soil in which to plant that seed. I really hope that we see Kristie blossom into something Aubry-esque this season, that would be magnificent.

Until next episode, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

Episode 7 Analysis Here!

Episode 5, pt 2 – ‘Pick-n-Flick’ OR ‘Get Nicked’

Want to check out pt 1 of the discussion? Do so here.

This double tribal is gonna take a long time to eat and even longer to digest. Let’s tuck in now, one bite at a time.

The Pu Hits the Fan

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THE NEW BLUE PU
Kylie’s suspicious idol activity sends The Pu into strategy overdrive, and what a clusterfug that is to behold.

Firstly, Flick quite reasonably starts thinking about a backup plan if they can’t vote Kylie out, and not surprisingly her thoughts turn to Conner. She shares this with Matt, who up until this moment we all assumed was a ‘super-fan’. What sort of super-fan hasn’t thought about the pecking order of his alliance? Regardless, because he hasn’t thought about it, he tells Flick so, which I liked. Matt comes across very human in these moments and not strategic at all. Which to me shows that he’s trustworthy and honest. My perception must be off though as Flick doesn’t see it that way at all, and runs off to Brooke to tell her that she has changed her mind and wants Matt off as he can’t be trusted. That’s right, a Flick-flip. Meanwhile Matt tells Sam what Flick has told him, at which point I’m thinking, why is The Pu freaking out, they’re not even going to tribal yet? Anyway, Sam is somehow even more shocked than Matt that somebody is actually thinking of backup plans. In my mind these two have just slipped from being the Batman and Spider-Man of the game to being Bill & Ted.

‘Con-Air(head)?’ or ‘He ain’t no Con-ner’ (yeah, I might be running out of puns hey?)

As we’ve seen before with the Bianca vote, Conner tries to start some shit. It seems that he and Matt are actually quite tight and he does not want to lose the magic. I’m not sure if this is the right move for Conner, I’ll need to think about it some more. On the one hand, if he has Sam and Matt, and it seems like Kylie, then that’s a four that could easily take out Brooke or Flick (hereafter referred to as ‘Brick’). That’s a big IF he has Sam and Matt, and it seems like he does at this stage. On the other hand, if Sam really is slick to stick with Brick and pick Mick, I mean Matt (sorry my fingers were on auto then (insert masturbation joke here)), then  I think it would be best for Conner to just ride that one out. So, for Conner it really comes down to what Sam wants to do, which the audience doesn’t see until the votes are read. By which time Conner has really screwed the pooch and it seems like his ridiculous tribal display has forced Matt to reconsider his vote, which ultimately leads to his Saanaboot-off.

Where’s Your Head Matt?

Did Matt go into tribal thinking he would vote for Flick? If so, arguably that would have been a better move than switching to Conner, given that Sam votes for Flick. I went into this episode thinking that Sam and Matt were as tight as Bill and Ted, but if Matt doesn’t know what Sam’s doing then that’s clearly not the case.

…if I’m not mistaken this is the first time in Survivor history where a tribal re-vote has resulted again in a tie even though two voters changed their vote…

This has really left me confused about where Matt is at. I can see why he voted for Conner initially, the dude was just too unstable and volatile, revealing strategies and alliances left and right, I understand why anyone would want to get rid of him. But, unless you’re sure you have the numbers to do so, now is not the time to try and do that. If Matt had decided on the spot to vote for Conner, but wasn’t sure what Sam was thinking, then he did have the opportunity after he cast his vote and while Conner was voting to tell Sam that Conner was a go. Who knows whether or not this would have worked though. And given that he flipped to Flick on the re-vote, he can’t be sure that he is in with Brick any longer. Next episode will be a really interesting one for Matt, I can’t wait to see how he recovers. Incidentally, if I’m not mistaken this is the first time in Survivor history where a tribal re-vote has resulted again in a tie even though two voters changed their vote. Happy to be corrected on that.

Kylie’s Got to be Certain (see what I did there?)

Once it was announced no-one was going home tonight there was no way Kylie was going to play her idol. Which made the showing it in tribal all the more misguided. Am I right in thinking that voting Kylie out was no longer Plan A since Brickgate went down? If that’s the case, then Kylie just does not have her finger on the pulse at all, so, unless you’re Jim Morrison or Lenny Kravitz, don’t come to tribal with your idol hangin’ out. Instead come to tribal, assess the situation and then make a decision whether you need to a) reveal the idol and/or b) play the idol. Not smart play from her. Where to from here for Kylie? Well now two tribes know she has an idol. I honestly don’t know what her play here is. She’s got Nick and Tegan to deal with now as well. A lot to manage. Unless she can find a smart way to use the idol that I don’t see, she’s going to have to use it when she next goes to tribal to secure another 3 days and hope that an opportunity at alliance presents itself in the future. Do you have any thoughts on what her play could be because I’m stumped?

Thick as a Brick

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“OH. MY. GAWD! Like I totally can’t believe he just did that y’know”
Brick now have a struggle on their hands. Not only does Sam no longer trust them, and Kylie has an idol, but they’ve got to deal with Nick and Tegan. The Pu really is a shitfight at the moment and I think it’s going to be incredibly interesting to see what gameplay develops from everyone. For Brick, they need to scramble fast. I don’t think it is outside the realms of their capability to win Matt back given how appallingly Conner behaved and without Sam around. It’s tough but do-able. They need to do something about Kylie and her idol but I’m fugged if I know what that is going to be. Nick and Tegan are the unknowns and it certainly seemed like from Flick’s reaction when Tegan joined that Flick has her eyes set on pulling her into the fold. I don’t know much about Tegan’s game at the moment other than that she is aligned with Nick. If Brick can get Nick and Teegs then that’s a win right there, they still have the numbers even if Kylie does use her idol to get one of those four out. I just don’t know if they can, and in fact I’m wondering if it’s about time Brooke stepped out of Flick’s shadow and started playing her own game. If Brooke can align with, well anyone else, Flick is an easy vote off and I don’t get the feeling that Brooke’s reputation is damaged as much as Flick’s is by what went down tonight. Food for thought.

Not So Mellow Yellow

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VAVAU NOW BROWN COW?
OK we’ve discussed the original Pu, but what happened and how do things now fare in camp Vavau I hear you ask?

Having a Barry

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“…isn’t there something I’m supposed to do today…”
First I need to get this off my chest, Barry. So, so disappointing. Another one to take one of the precious few Survivor spots and not actually play the game. It’s not out-wit if you choose not to use your wits at all. I almost think he doesn’t even know what the game is. When he saw his name appearing on parchment it looked like he was thinking “that’s my name, what does that mean?”. That’s all I’ll say about that for now.

Nefarious Nick the Puckish Poet

In fact I’ll make my first ever prediction and say with 95% confidence that Nick will not win this game.

Nick suffered a classic case of over-playing from day one. From taking the lead while telling everyone that he didn’t want to be the leader, to the way he scrambled when his poem backfired. He just came off as a crafty fox to watch out for. There’s no denying that he’s an intelligent guy, but his strategies did not take into account what the other members of his tribe actually wanted. How he’s going to recover from this I don’t know, with at least five people back in old Vavau (six if you count Kate) who want him out, it’s going to be an incredible uphill climb. In fact I’ll make my first ever prediction and say with 95% confidence that Nick will not win this game. For him to go further the best he can hope for is that he bonds with Kylie, Sam, and Teegs, plays a more social game and they get him through a couple more tribals and hope that he can find something else to cling on to before they ditch him. As mentioned above we’re yet to see any gameplay emerge from Tegan. Watch this space(-cadet) I suppose.

The Four – Andrew, Craig, Sue, Jennah-Louise

I’m really interested to see what will happen with these guys now. The smart thing to do would be to stay a strong four, and pull in Kate and methodically take out Barry, Sam, and Conner (if they get that many chances). I suspect that is not the way that things will play out though. Having Conner there is like having a little Jack Russell Terrier at camp always wanting to start some shit, and given his track record and the fact that he will feel as though he really needs to scramble to save himself, I don’t think it will be long before his constant yapping starts forming cracks in the eardrums of The Four. Where could these cracks occur? Well it’s possible that Craig has taken Nick’s spot on the tribe as the mover and shaker? Craig will really need to go easy to ensure he doesn’t come across this way. One would assume Andrew is going to continue to play it cool and let others make stupid moves until it’s time for him to start being proactive, and that’s exactly the way for him to play his game. I’m sure that’s precisely what he’ll do. Time will tell just what game Sue and Jennah-Lousie are playing. I think that we’re really going to start seeing strategies emerge in Vavau now. I can’t wait.

I couldn’t finish the post without acknowledging just how beautiful this friendship is. Tai would be proud.

That’s the end for another week, unless of course Channel Ten have decided that I don’t need sleep and go ahead and air a few more episodes just for the hell of it. It has been a week full of surprises that have left me feeling very uncertain about where many of these guys and gals are going to go from here. Would love to know your thoughts, give me a shout out in the comments below. Until Sunday night, I got nothing for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 6 analysis here!

Episode 5, pt 1 – ‘Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad’ OR ‘You Took the Snail Right Out of My Mouth’

Want to read my analysis of the previous episode before this one? You can do so here.

Apologies – I had some trouble with my recording tonight (damn you toddler playing with the remote control, do it again and you’re going in the cage with Chester) and so I missed the whole portion of the episode between Aganoa winning immunity and tribal council. As such I have not seen any of the big discussions and plays leading up to tribal. As a result this is only a third of a post. I’ll have the rest of the post up by Wednesday evening so be sure to come back then, or better yet subscribe, to read what I have to say after watching the entirety of the episode.

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When you double the tribal you triple the trouble…

The Ol’ Flippity-Dippity

Well, I don’t know what to say. From the point of view of the average tv audience person, wow, what a twist. From the point of view of the player, and dare I say, the fans, what the fuck is this game? I don’t think I’ve ever seen an episode of Survivor where the contestants don’t actually know what they’re writing down names on a parchment for. I don’t want to dwell on this too much because the idea of my Drop Your Buffs! analysis is more that I analyse the gameplay than I critique the show, but I will say that I’m not sure that I’m happy about this. I know the game is supposed to have an element of surprise, that you don’t know what could happen at any given time, but in this instance the contestants have been tricked, and that doesn’t sit comfortably with me. Let me know your thoughts below.

So where does this leave our main players?

At this point I usually discuss where each of the remaining players of the ‘losing’ tribe are at and consider what their best moves are. With tonight’s double tribal that would mean fourteen contestants to discuss so instead I will just discuss what I consider to be the main players of interest. So come back in the next couple of hours once I’ve managed to watch the episode in its entirety and I’ll have my thoughts on where to from here for Kylie, Nick, Sam, Conner, Flick, Andrew, Barry, Matt and maybe a few others.

Until then, I got nothing for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

Pt 2 of Episode 5 Discussion Here!