If you were blindsided by what happened tonight, it’s because you haven’t been playing along. Check out my analysis of the previous episode here.
Huzzah! We have some gameplay! The Brick has finally split in two, and it happened from within. Big ups to Flick for getting rid of the one person that nobody could beat in a final two (that breakdown is here). After the last episode I suggested that Lee and El be broken up first, so I’m a little disappointed that Flick didn’t listen. Regardless, let’s eat the dog and discuss whether this was the best move for the guys tonight.
Flick Flop
Our puppet-master pulls all of the strings and doesn’t even need to be there…Well done Flick. You recognised that Brooke was a threat to your game long term and you made moves to disable the threat. Textbook play too. I am a little worried that it may have been one move too early as Lee and El now still hold the power among the remaining players, and Lee holds an advantage. Though to be fair, had she waited one more tribal then it is likely that Brooke might have made the same play against Flick. Now that would have really been a world war three to behold. Let’s think it through. If El had gone, then that would leave Brooke, Kristie, Matt, Sam, Flick, and Lee. Lee would likely then approach Sam as his next closest alliance, and at this stage it does not look as though Sam is going to turn on Brooke. Giving Brooke the numbers to take out Flick. Ok, Flick IS smarter than I am. Now was the time to take out Brooke. Does this leave a target on her back? Potentially, but she’s done all that she can do to mitigate that in allowing El to come up with Brooke’s name (that was nice). She might now be able to sit back and make it look like this was El’s move and let her take the heat. That would be a fine line to walk there, to get the balance right between having El take the blame for the move in-game, but still be able to take the credit for it with the jury. The other thing to think about is Lee’s advantage. Does she know what Lee’s advantage is? If so I’m wondering if it would have been smart to try and influence him to use that tonight so that he could not use that against her next tribal. I’m not convinced that Lee and/or El would try to move against Flick now. If that’s the case then you want Lee to keep it this tribal so that you definitely have the numbers in a six person tribal. Turning six votes into five and avoiding a tie scenario. So who does Flick need to take out next?
To get through the next tribal I would say Sam. Play up that Sam was going to vote against Lee and keep Lee motivated to take him out. However, Sam is one of the few people that Flick can beat in a final two. Lee and El are the two people who likely could definitely beat her. I would even go as far as saying it’s becoming increasingly likely Kristie could beat her too. So you might want to keep Sam around. So the best move for Flick would be to try and break up Lee and El next. If Lee and El make it to final five and Lee still has his advantage (the last time it can be used is final five), then they pretty much have the game wrapped up. One of them would likely make it to final two and would be very hard to beat. Therefore what Flick needs to do, is appeal to Matt and Sam, tell her why she felt it had to be done, that Brooke was a threat who could not have been beaten, that the next threats are Lee and El and they have to stay together to take them out next, all the while pretending that she is still with Lee and El. Unfortunately this would mean that she would have to rely heavily on Kristie to flip on Lee and El.
Still Floating or Dropping Anchor?
“Maybe if I keep my mouth shut they’ll forget I’m here and won’t vote for me…”We saw some nice play from Kristie tonight. Firstly, we’ve been shown a few times over the last couple of episodes that she has actually made some social connections with people. She’s had lots of little interactions around camp that tells us she might not be as much on the periphery as we assume. Two big chats with Lee, high-fiving Matt, water walks with Brooke. She’s clearly still keeping her finger in some pies. She’s also showed us how her mind works when she was determining what Flick’s motivations would be in coming to El about flipping. That was really good to see. But where to from here for her. She’s said all along and she reiterated again tonight that she has played an individual game, and it’s worked well for her so far. It has her in a pretty good position now. She can choose whether to stick with El and Lee, or to move elsewhere. Given that El and Lee are the biggest threat in the game right now, my gut reaction is to break them up. Kristie’s other threat however is Flick. If you’re Kristie, ideally you want to go to the end with Sam or Matt. If you’re Lee and El, you’d probably also prefer to go to the end with Sam or Matt, and not Kristie. Alright, I’ve just convinced myself, the best move for Kristie now is to break up Lee and El, then work on convincing both Sam and Matt that they could never beat Flick in a final two and hope that the final immunity challenge falls your way. This path is a definite possibility, she has a reasonable shot of winning this game now, she just needs to listen to me. My commission is just a fraction of the prize money. That fraction is 499/500ths. With flexibility as Kristie’s arguably greatest asset, is she actually now a threat?
Aganoa, noa, noa. Push pineapple. Shake the tree.
“Lee, there are no ‘big’ blindsides and ‘small’ blindsides there are just blindsides”I’ve spoken a lot about how others need to take out Lee and El for the best shot at winning, so what can Lee and El do to make it through this barrage of attacks. Let’s talk advantage first. Obviously, the advantage is more powerful the longer you hold on to it. If they can use it at final five rather than final six then they have a better shot of making it to final two. So they need to find a way to get through the next tribal without using it. To have a majority they need two more. Though I have absolutely no idea where Sam’s head is at after that “big” blindside, I’m going to presume that Lee could spoon him back into an alliance. If they still have Kristie with them then they have the four needed to vote out Flick (provided Flick doesn’t win immunity). The other option, and the one that is perhaps a little more dangerous, is to turn on Kristie. If they can recognise that a) Kristie is someone that the three others could want to take to the end, and b) her flexibility makes her both unpredictable and a threat, then they could possibly form a bipartisan alliance to vote out Kristie. Then once she’s gone Lee still has the advantage to move against Flick.
If he has Sam at that point he may not even need it. If he doesn’t have Sam then the least that the advantage can do is cause a tie scenario, which is better than going home outright. Is there any value in Lee or El voting out the other now? Firstly, I don’t think they will just because they have been very tight all the way through. Secondly, as each of them are such big threats to everyone else, they need to keep each other around to a) have stronger numbers and b) have a meat shield, someone else who could be perceived as a bigger threat. If we end up with Lee and El in the final two I would be very disappointed, but it is a distinct possibility. That leaves Matt and Sam for us to ponder on.
TimTam Sam and Milk ArrowMatt (if you’ve got a better biscuit reference to apply to Matt I’m all ears)
“How did the rabbit get into the hat?…”Sam, Sam, Sam…. Brooke handed you a big move on a silver platter. As she was telling you that it was time to make a big move and break up Lee and El all I heard her say was “Sam, here’s my trust, you need to get out a big player, I’m never going to see it coming, here’s your chance, talk to your buddy Lee and you can have me out of the game. Or Flick if you prefer, it’s totally your choice”. Oh well. I guess what I heard was not what Sam heard. Regardless, result is the same, other than Sam had nothing to do with it and missed a chance at a move and feels on the outs. I have no idea how Sam and Matt are going to react to this blindside. As much as Matt thought that Flick and Brooke were the angels to his Charlie, we all knew the opposite was true. Sam and Matt were the Rocksteady and Bebop to Brick’s Krang. Brick was the brains and they were the meat that did the brain’s bidding. I mentioned above that I think that it is still possible for Flick to salvage an alliance with Sam and Matt, and to be honest, that is probably the best thing for those guys to do. Given the best shot that Sam, Matt and Kristie have in a final two is against each other, the move for Sam and Matt now is to stick with Flick and break up Lee and El, then take out Flick and fight it out amongst themselves for a final two. Hope you’re listening boys. I don’t want to see Lee or El in the final two.
Bye Bye Brooke
Sorry to see you go Brooke. You played an incredible game. Unfortunately when you play so well it makes you a huge threat and it was only a matter of time before somebody tried to neutralise you. I don’t think there was much you could do about it short of winning immunity. It seemed that you had some misgivings or uncertainty about Flick in this episode, as though you felt that she may have been doing something shady. It did seem in Flick’s conversations with both Brooke one on one and when she was talking to the original Pu-ans that she was hiding something, but I may just have been thinking that because I knew that she was. I would have thought that Matt would pick up on that. Perhaps if you guys had these misgivings about Flick then you could have had a chat to Kristie to see if she would give anything away. I think that you thought you had it wrapped up and didn’t need to. Anyway, we’ll miss you. Your probably played the smartest game out there, shame that it had to come to an end. I also never get to use ‘Brick’ again. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.
Before I get into discussion about tonight’s episode, there’s something I need to discuss. Some of you may have read stories in the mainstream or social media about Brooke, Flick and El receiving threats and abuse. You may even have come across some of this abuse yourself. My first reaction upon reading that this has occurred was to defend the trio and their actions and the way they’ve played the game. But that bullshit is not really what the problem is here. The problem here is not what they’ve done, or how it may have been perceived by some, or if the editing is to blame. So my response is not to defend the women, but to condemn the dickheads out there that do this shit. This sort of abuse is NEVER appropriate. Now I know that across the fifty odd thousand words I’ve written about this season so far I’ve made my fair share of judgements about our contestants, but this shit is on another level. Anyone who hurls this type of abhorrent, disrespectful, despicable and downright vile trash at people, particularly women, is a fucking tool. Especially if done via the relative anonymity of the internet. Go fuck yourself wankers, #IStandWithFlickBrookeandEl.
If you’re yet to read my analysis of the last episode, there’s no need to be disappointed in yourself like Lee, you can catch up here.
I’m sure you’re just as disappointed in how this episode played out as I am so I won’t spend any more time bitching about how boring it was, and how boring our top seven are. Instead let’s be positive and look to the future and where we think each of our seven need to position themselves to make it to the end.
Scary Thoughts
Tonight saw many of our players finally come to the realisation that winning the game will require you to eventually vote out a friend. We even saw a number of them start thinking about who they might take to the end with them. With that in mind, I thought I might break down who each of the remaining seven can beat in the final two. Let’s check it out.
El can beat – Matt, Kristie, Sam, possibly Lee and Flick
Lee – Everyone except maybe Brooke (depending on the mood of the jury)
Flick – Sam, Matt, Kristie
Kristie – probably only Sam
Sam – Possibly Kristie but I don’t like his chances
Matt – Sam, Kristie, possibly Flick and El
Brooke – everyone except JL and maybe Lee
That is an interesting exercise. If you disagree with my assessments, let me know what you think in the comments below. Now let’s see how each player can use this info.
El and back
There’s a few people that El can beat if she gets there. Given that she can beat most people except Brooke, and Lee and Flick could still maybe beat her, then now is the time to grab Lee, scoop up Kristie and then find one more to smash the Brick. Who will that one be though, Sam or Matt? It seems at this stage there is absolutely no convincing Matt to split with Brick so that leaves Sam. I feel from what we’ve seen of Sam it’s not outside the realms of possibility that he could flip if Lee can show him how manipulative Brick has been.
Taking the LEEd?
“Hey Rohan, I’ll be the driver”Depending on how he gets there, the only person that Lee could not beat in a final two is possibly Brooke, and Brooke might only beat him if the jury respects manipulative gameplay. If the jury votes on sportsmanship or dare I say ‘mateship’ then Lee wins. He has done nothing wrong (so far), he just also hasn’t done anything very right.
FLICK OFF!
Flick is a hard one to judge. She has played a better game than Lee and El, but just doesn’t seem as likeable as they are. She comes across to the audience as cold-blooded, but I’m not sure she comes across that way to those on island. She has been able to influence others so we know she has social skills. The times when she has come across as cutting or cold about anyone have only been pieces to camera or discussions with Brooke. Her move is the same move I discussed last week. Get rid of Lee and El with her current alliance, then use others to move against Brooke (easier said than done). Then all she needs to do is beat those other losers to final two.
Kristie
Oh Kristie, doesn’t look like you’re in a good position here. The only person I believe you can beat in a final two is Sam, and there is still a possibity he could beat you. How to get there though? Seeing as Lee and El need you to take out Brick, I guess you need to side with them first. You’ll need to bring scamming Sam with you to do that. Then once Brooke and maybe Flick are gone you can use Matt to take out Lee and El, leaving you with Matt and Sam in a final three. Then you just need to make sure the final immunity challenge goes your way. You’ll then need to put in a solid enough performance at the final tribal, the one where the jury questions you. If you can string a sentence together and use some big words, then Sam shouldn’t be able to beat you unless the jury either really just doesn’t like you or really does like Sam.
Scamming Sam
“It’s hard, hard, hard….pop me off” Actual quote from SamAs above only try not to say anything stupid in your final tribal. Appeal to the loyalty of your mates in Lee, Brooke, and Matt, and also talk up the times you actually tried to make a move. If you do win it will be by a whisker as there is no way Nick, JL or Sue are giving you their vote.
Magic Matt
As above with Sam and Kristie, if you go against either of those then you should take the win. Just do what I say and you’ll get there. I mentioned that you could possibly beat Flick or El, so you’ve got options. It may be harder to get there with Flick or El too and a lot more work to beat them. You’re best move for now I’m afraid is to flip on Brick, because the longer they stay the less likely you’ll make it to a final two unless you are their goat. You wouldn’t be my first pick for goat though. That honour goes to Sam. So that is a risky play. You need to lay low and see what happens this coming tribal. If you don’t make any sudden movements your head should not be on the chopping block. Once either Brick or Lee and El are broken up the way ahead should be a little clearer.
Brookie has the odds
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At this stage it’s Brooke’s game to lose. The only person that can beat her is Lee and even that depends on a jury that favours mateship and loyalty over strategy. As the person who is most likely to win however, she now has a huge target on her back. If she can keep her core four together, and somehow make it look like Flick is the bigger threat that may keep some heat off her. Also time to start a sub-alliance with Matt and Sam, let them know you’ll take them both to the final three if they can vote out Flick. You just then need to hope that you win the final immunity challenge. If the others are smart, they won’t take you to final to with them. If they do then it is a testament to your incredible social skills.
You Say Goodbye. I JL, oh…
You may have noticed that I put JL into Brooke’s list of who she can beat. This is because I wanted to talk about tonight’s move. The popular opinion, at least in the pies my finger is in, is that JL should have been kept as a number for flippers. While I would have loved to have seen JL stay as she is much more entertaining and prone to big moves than our remaining Survivors, as she is one of the few that could have beaten Brooke (if the jury respects an underdog story and a maker of big moves) it made perfect sense for Brooke to get rid of her now. Flick as well. They can clearly see that if they had kept her around, she would have been a number that any of the others could use to break up Brick and the core four. Had she been given a sniff I suspect that she would have kept playing hard right to the end. Unfortunately, things did not work out for her tonight. You may remember that in my analysis of the previous episode I was sure that tonight was going to be the night that JL would finally be used to smash the alliance. All she needed to do was sit back and let the others come to her. Matt and Sam think they are tight with Brick and Lee and El have realised much too late that to have any shot of winning they too need to do something about Brick. It’s a real shame. All of this is again testament to the quality of Brick’s game. Everyone thinks they are safe with Brick. Idiots.
Bonus Round
I also need to point out that I didn’t mention Lee’s advantage in the above. It hasn’t been spoken of on screen for a long time. I can’t remember the last time someone mentioned it. I assume that people still realise that he has it, but I have no idea if anybody other than Lee knows what the advantage actually is. Obviously, with it, Lee can really shift the game in his favour. If he’ smart, he’ll realise that next tribal is the time to use it, so that he can break up the core four. If he’s not smart, it may be too late and he could go home with an advantage in his pocket. My guess as to what will actually happen is he’ll win the next immunity, not think to use it, then use it later and it won’t actually change things for him at all. Time will tell. Until next episode, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
If you’re yet to read my analysis of the previous episode, you can do so here.
Seriously?! This is how we are going to move into the top eight? We’re forty odd days into the game, our final nine, and people are still saying “I definitely feel like this person is someone I can work with”!? And again no one looking for a clue at the reward challenge?! This is a very different season of Survivor to the ones I am used to. As a fan, I have found the last two episodes particularly disappointing. If you’ve been reading along at home then you’ll know how much I was looking forward to these last two episodes assuming that we would start seeing some big moves. Instead we saw safe, boring and dare I say stupid gameplay result in the episode ending with a floater left in the bowl that is our top eight.
“Yeah, but”
Little known fact: Rodin’s original concept for his sculpture ‘The Thinker’ was based on Sam.Yes, I am aware I sound like I’m whingeing. It’s really infuriating to watch Matt and Sam be so oblivious to what is actually going on. In Matt’s defense, he’s sticking to what he believes is a solid alliance. It’s not his fault that we the audience see that he’s not in the alliance, and he’s not in on the trick. That’s what makes it frustrating for us fans. It’s possible that if we didn’t know that his alliance wasn’t strong, it wouldn’t be so frustrating for us. I actually feel sorry for Matt. Perhaps I shouldn’t, he is playing Survivor and I’m not. He may even win for all we know. But surely it can’t be easy for him to watch this now, after believing that Brick are his ‘devils’, now knowing that he’s being played. Anyway, you gotta play the hand you’re dealt, I just didn’t think that this is the way that Matt would play it. He’s not responsible for my expectations. I also have to give credit to Brick here. Given all that’s been said to Matt, they have still managed to convince him that he’s with them. Sam on the other hand has done nothing to endear himself to me, though I’m sure he is a viewer favourite. For me, I want to at least see some strategy and some understanding of how the game works. “Yeah, but…” is how he replied upon hearing Sue and JL tell him that he could only make it so far while he let Brick control the game. What sort of a response is that?! He did at least give us the second funniest moment of the episode, when during tribal he said, and I’m paraphrasing here, “I’m still here because I’m more cleverer than you guys”. The funniest moment of course was when the top seven were having a swim and talking about how Sue was the vote and Matt asks if they need to split the votes, but nobody can respond because Kristie is there with them. Then people start pointing at Kristie behind her back, and Matt points in return, Kristie turns around and Matt has to do something with his hands so he runs his fingers through his hair. That was gold. It’s a sad reflection of the quality of gameplay on show this episode when that humorous moment is what I am spending my time reflecting on. The only gameplay I feel like we saw came from JL, and a little bit from Sue.
She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone, She’s Gone…She’s Still Here
At least JL knew that tonight was the night to make a move. In the previous episode we saw her chatting with Matt after Nick had called out that he was oblivious to what was going on and at that point Matt agreed that there was “a lot of truth in that”. So it was not a surprise that she tried to get in his ear again today. Though her claim that she needed to talk to him ‘for his benefit’ was more than a little disingenuous, at least it got them talking. Matt however would not be swayed. We saw JL and Sue try and sway Sam, yeah, but, that didn’t work. She tries a word in Kristie’s ear. Kristie basically just smiled and nodded. JL even tried to get Flick to expose her crack. Not to mention the things that she had to say at tribal after getting her mongrel on to win immunity. As JL was spraying what she was saying I was actually thinking that she needed to go further in calling out the dynamics. She needed to push Brick to have them say exactly what the pecking order was, in much the same way that Kate spelled it out to Sam and Lee. No sooner had I thought that when Sue took my thought and JL’s lead and ran with it, calling out the bonds more explicitly and putting Brick on the back foot (who actually handled it pretty well I think). We also saw Sue come up with the idea to write Kristie’s name down. Even though had it worked it may have only got her through one more vote, I thought this was some nifty parallel thinking. It was unfortunate that it didn’t work for her. While we’re on Sue, I know I said she did some good things tonight, and I said similar things about her last night. Unfortunately tonight she also showed why it was she didn’t make it further in this game. She may not be naive, sweetheart, but she also didn’t play particularly strategically. Last night we saw Flick come to her to try and get her on side, I suggested Sue leverage this last night, but she didn’t listen (why don’t these people read my advice between tribals?! Honestly). So, there’s that, but also tonight we didn’t really see her talking to anyone other than JL. She just lay down and crossed her fingers. There was no attempt at scrambling (admittedly she hadn’t laid any groundwork that she could scramble with but at least try). So, naive she may not be, but her sharpness and observance was not enough to grant her the title of survivor when it has no action behind it. I’m sad to see you go Sue, but it takes more than that (says I, worried that friggin Lee will win).
Methinks the Lady doth not Protest Enough
The calm before the JL…So what does this actually leave JL with? Well, viewers less well-versed in Survivor might say that JL has completely burned her bridges. If she doesn’t win immunity next episode she will be given her marching orders. I tend to disagree, I don’t think its a foregone conclusion at all. We did see Phoebs coast through a couple of tribals when it looked like all was lost for her, simply because people were scared of bigger threats. And though I do wish JL had called out even more at tribal, what she did say may just be enough to put some fright into people. Sammy we know can be flighty, it’s possible that he has taken some of what was said tonight seriously, and realises that if he allows BrickEl to continue he’s out. El herself may actually feel somewhat insecure that she is tied to what is now clearly a target and choose to distance herself from them and start to play her own game. Lee may think… that would be a good start for him. What Kristie plans to do though is anyone’s guess. You can only float for so long before you need to start making moves to climb out of the bowl or you’re going to be flushed. I’m having a good think about the best move for her and she’s got lots of options. If the status quo remains with the top five staying tight then her only move is to wait for the flush. Given all of the explicit attempts that we’ve seen to break that top five, I’m actually beginning to think it may not be possible to create your own crack. If this is the case the best bet for her, and JL and Matt for that matter, is actually to wait and hope that some of what JL has said has stuck, and that one of those top five feels as though it’s time for them to make a move against their alliance before the move is made against them first. I feel that JL, Matt and Kristie are not going to get anywhere by explicitly pushing a move between now and next tribal. They need to sit back, maybe, ever so subtly drop a few hints about the five needing to turn on each other soon, and then sit back and wait for someone to come to them. In fact I would argue that if you were one of the top five and you did want to make a move, next vote is the time to do it. You’ve got three numbers on the periphery that you could use. Wait any longer and you either won’t have those numbers there, or someone else will strike first.
Devils Between My Toes
It’s so important to practiceI assume that Brooke feels that taking Flick to final two is her best move. I would agree with my assumption of what she feels. I do imagine though that it is possible that she may be having doubts in her alliance given all the shade that has been thrown their way lately. Is it possible that Flick could be hoping to throw Brooke under the balls before she gets to the final two and take Sammy or Lee, or even JL or Kristie with her? If I were Flick I certainly wouldn’t be taking Brooke to the final two with me. There’s no winning against Brooke. Maybe, just maybe JL has a shot of winning against Brooke if she continues to dominate challenges and make some moves on her way there. I can’t see anyone else beating Brooke in the final two. So Flick needs to find a way to remove Brooke from the final two. The bind for her is that the best way for her to get there is for Brooke to take her. It’s a catch 22. Brooke wants Flick in final two with her, Flick doesn’t want Brooke there. If Flick votes Brooke out too early she’ll never make it there. The ideal scenario for Flick is that she and Brooke make it to final three, and Brooke doesn’t win immunity, with the winner voting Brooke out. And I feel like there’s plenty of people that Flick could beat in a final two. The ideal scenario for Brooke is that she and Flick make it to final three and Brooke wins immunity and has her choice of who she takes to the final two with her, likely beating whomever that might be (except maybe JL). Regardless, the best move for Brick is to stay together. As I mentioned above though, El may have other plans.
Flippin’ ‘El
El takes a good hard look at the pecking order…So does that mean that the best move for El now is to flip on Brick? Yes, I think it is. There are enough people that want Brick smashed, and El seems to have good relationships with Lee and Kristie. So most definitely, now is the time to strike. El has a much better shot of beating Kristie, Sam or Lee in the final two than she does either of Brick. If she doesn’t strike now then she may miss her shot and then have to hope that some immunity wins go her way.
So, there’s potentially some pretty decent gameplay ahead of us. That’s not even mentioning that Lee still has an advantage in the game, that could totally change everything I’ve just suggested to our top eight. Just please please please do what I say Survivors! Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
If you want to read about how we got to our top ten before settling in for the ride, do so here.
Well that was a huge let down. After where we left our Survivors last week, with ten of them, tonight was the night to flip the numbers against Brick and El, obviously nobody has been reading my advice, idiots. And all the pre-show hype was about Sue’s big move. Which one was that again? We found out tonight that JL hasn’t lost her voice and does actually talk (yay). Hopefully this is the start of an upwards arc for her. Also tonight what could have been an interesting twist, seemed like it didn’t actually change a thing in the game. So grab your pole and smash your balls, let’s do this.
Exile Beach, Far Away in Time
A split in the tribe? Nah not reallyWhen it was revealed that the challenges bottom four would be sent to Exile Beach, I was not sure whether I liked that twist. I felt it would totally hamstring the players and not allow them to play the game the way that it is ‘meant’ to be played, taking away from those on the periphery any hope of forming a coup against those at the apex of the pyramid. Also with a number of the voting blocks unable to have the ability to come to agreement on their way to tribal, I assumed it would mean that we see tonight’s votes smattered across at least three people. How wrong I was. When we found out that there was an idol on the beach, I was a little more enthusiastic about the twist. Another idol in play is just what was needed to shake this game up, particularly in the hands of Matt or Sue. Flick went and dashed those hopes by insisting that no one look for the idol. Don’t get me wrong, this was a great play on her part. She’s said all along that she needs to be in control, and if there’s an idol out there she loses that control. An idol in the wrong hands would totally ruin her game, and its her game to lose given the tightness of Brick and El. It was disappointing to see Matt, Lee and Sue, just roll over on that and let Flick have her way. I understand that Lee doesn’t know any better, but Matt at least should be looking for that thing. If that puts a target on his back, it doesn’t matter for this vote as he has an idol. Moving to nine players after this episode you need to be on the side of five. The best shot you were going to have to break the BrickEl trio, was tonight, or next time if you’ve got an idol. Flick also has to get some credit for taking the time to talk to Lee and Matt while on Exile Beach, and try and at least calm them and reassure them that they were still in the top five alliance. She also did some spadework on Sue, though that was less successful (more on that later). Regardless, somehow everyone knew that the vote was heading for Kylie. I’m not sure whether this was the best move, or even how it shook down that way.
With a little understanding, you can find the perfect blend
The closest Kylie came to an all-female alliance…
Is it better to keep Kylie in the mix or to cut her off now? Let’s see this vote from Brick’s perspective as they seemed to call that shot, and weigh the pros against the cons. Pros of keeping; she’s not going to vote against you; will let you know if someone comes to her to looking to flip; she’s unlikely to receive Jury votes; gives you the opportunity to remove Matt, Kristie or Sue from the game. Cons, strong in challenges; maybe Lee will suspect he’s not with you guys; if JL and Kylie are a voting block that may flip on BrickEl, prevents that from happening (big ‘if’ that we’ve no evidence for). Is that all for cons? I can’t see any others. In that case, it wasn’t the smartest move to get her out. Again without the ability to consult with everyone in your alliance, maybe it was best just to go with the easy vote. Though I do suspect that Kylie was always going to be the vote regardless of Exile Beach twist as we saw during the challenge a number of ladies say to each other, and to Sam, that it was imperative not to let Kylie win. This move however isn’t that bad for Sue, Kristie or Matt. This at least gives them one less number to go up against if they decide to aim for Brick. So what can they do to make the most of Kylie going?
Up Against a Brick Wall
The front of the line, the apex of the pyramid, the angels of the CharlieI’m building the pyramid in my head as I type to try and figure out where everyone stands. If I presume that Sue, Matt and Kristie are the bottom three and the only way any of them can make it to top three is to break the Brick in two, how can they do it? El, is tight with Brick. Lee seems to be the same as he doesn’t know any better. That then leaves JL and Sam to play with. That’s a five if they can get it together. From what we’ve seen of the next episode it seems that JL is ready to make this happen. Who knows where Sam stands? Again he showed that he is really not connected to Brick as he voted Sue. He didn’t know that the real target was Kylie. Maybe this is the catalyst that is needed for him to realise that he’s not in their gang. It’s only going to take a whisper from Matt for Sam to see that Brick is a snake, and it’s head needs to be chopped off. The head of course being Brooke. Hopefully Sam could then shut his trap enough not to fill Lee in on this as it’s possible that Lee would talk to El or Flick and give them the heads up. If ever there was a last chance for the bottom three, and even the middle three (Sam, Lee and JL) to flip it, now is the chance. If you let Brick and El remain to the final eight, it is going to require a lot of luck and for immunity wins to go your way to have a shot at the top three. I have to acknowledge at this point that it’s possible that my vision could be clouded by my dislike for Brick, perhaps it’s actually better for one or more of the bottom three to keep Brick there. I really can’t see it though. If you do, please let me know in the comments below.
El’s Belles
Sitting pretty I also have to acknowledge that I’ve made a presumption that El wants to go to final three with Brick. It’s possible that her plan is to flip on them as we get closer to the end. For her sake I hope so. If she were to make it to final three with them, even if she wins the last immunity, that puts her up against either Brooke or Flick in the final two. Having not actually made any moves so far, it is incredibly unlikely that she would be beat Brooke, who not only has called the shots but seems to have formed pretty good personal relationships with most people who would be on the jury. It’s possible, but I would still say unlikely that she would beat Flick. Flick may receive more animosity from the jury, but she has still played the game hard and the jury may respect that. Both of these scenarios likely result in an El loss, so her best bet is to flip on Brick at some stage. Final five is that time though, not now. If she were to flip now she loses the security of that alliance and could easily find herself without any other security to hang on or and therefore easy pickings. Yeah, she needs to flip at five to have a shot at winning the game. I can’t wait to see what happens when the top three start to realise that they’re going to need to turn on each other soon. Particularly Flick. Flick can’t win if Brooke’s there, I hope for her sake she realises this before Brooke does.
A Perfect Fit
Sue pledges Kappa Kappa BrickAlthough we didn’t see the big move from Sue we were promised tonight, before I wrap this up I do have to give her some credit. When approached by Flick (incidentally that scene was, to quote Flick herself I believe, “awkward as” for Flick, watch it again here), Sue realised Flick was blowing smoke up her arse. And whether it was by accident or design, her response to Flick was “my ambition is to make it to top six” was genius. That is, I would imagine, exactly what Flick wants to hear. Again, whether by accident or design, her vote for Kylie may have helped to solidify Flick’s impression of her loyalty. Sue needs to spend the next two days subtly reassuring Flick that she will vote with Flick to the top six, so it is less likely that Flick will see the vote coming against Brick.
If all goes as predicted, tomorrow night could be a great episode. Unfortunately it could also be another boring episode of The Brick Show. Guess we’ll find out soon enough. Until then, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
I’m not going to beg you, but if you want to check out my analysis of episode 14 before you dive into episode 15, you can do that here.
It really was very nice of J-LaP to give me a shout-out tonight, thanks brotherMerge is here and in the words of Robert Pollard “now the fun begins”. Not that we haven’t been having fun for the past 33 days, but as we all know, the games shifts post-merge and tonight was as good an indication as any of how crazy things can get once it becomes even more of an individual game. And with a thirteen person tribe (the largest in Survivor history) things are even a little crazier than usual. What better place to start our discussion than with Sam’s ‘good kid’, Conner.
Fall-out Boy (think about it, that works on so many levels, I’m quite proud of myself)
Barely hanging in there…Conner was loved by many and in turns made us both smile and cringe. His mixture of youthful naivety, and puppy-dog playfulness, and earnestness in the face of unfamiliarity brought him many a fan. Unfortunately, while he was the New Kid On The Block, he did not have The Right Stuff….baby. His failure to pull together any sort of alliance in this episode saw him come undone. We all know however that this wasn’t the only failing that led to his downfall. Aside from turning on Bianca back in episode 2 (had he not done that Saanapu would have been very different) I would argue that his exploits in episode 5 when he tried to turn the tables on Flick and call some people out on their duplicities really sowed the seeds for his departure tonight. He never really recovered any ground in the eyes of the original Pu, and while I don’t think they necessarily were out for revenge, they knew he was volatile and his unpredictability could destroy their games. He struggled to find his feet after being exiled to Vavau in episode 5, finally finding what looked to be a solid two with Kate in episode 14 (who should forget that trust ceremony, nawww). Well that was over before the honeymoon had even begun! We didn’t see either of the newlyweds have a family meeting and try and balance the family budget. Conner’s crucifixion isn’t all his own baby-jesus faced fault.
What the Hell Vavau?
So let me get this straight, Sue, Conner, Kate and Kristie voted Matt, Nick, Kylie and Conner respectively? And Saanapu voted exactly to their suggested five-four split? So much for Kate’s “We need to get the good guys together, AVENGERS ASSEMBLE!” What were Vavau hoping to gain from voting individually? We saw a glimmer of game in Sue when she said something like ‘I’m not happy about it and I’m going to do something about it’, I was thinking ‘about time, what magic are we going to see from Nanna’, and she didn’t do shit. Very disappointing. How they voted aside, we didn’t really see them scramble at all. All we saw was Conner try and talk to Sam. He couldn’t do that the way he wanted to, then effectively just said ‘oh well’ and shrugged his shoulders. Maybe he was coming down after all that sugar. Given he didn’t get the pre-tribal conversations he was hoping for I thought that we’d at least see a last ditch effort from him to blow shit up at tribal and drop some truth bombs about Nick (which we expect would have backfired anyway given he has an idol), but he just lay down, even through a J-LaP grilling. J-LaP gave him every opportunity to stir shit up and out Nick (I would even argue J-LaP went too far with it), but he just seemed, much like the jesus he apparently resembles, like a dead man walking.
Will the Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up
“socially, strategically, economically, spiritually”…there’s no denying the man can rap.What were these guys doing for 3 days after the merge that they didn’t get a sense of where the tensions lay in Saanapu? They could have and should have been spending time figuring out where they could drive a wedge or split a seam or plant a seed or frack the Murray-Darling basin that is Saanapu. I was pretty confident that once we hit the merge we would see a coup against Nick. We’ve seen plenty of times in Survivor when a tribe hasn’t been to tribal for a while, they almost relish being able to finally do so, just so that they can get the person out who has been shitting them for so long. Nick is that person. Earlier in the episode when he kind of started calling the shots (more on this in a bit) I thought to myself ‘wow, what has he done to be able to turn things around for and really ingratiate himself into this tribe’. Shortly after that we got about three or four snippets of conversation or pieces to camera with Saanapuans revealing they think he is a snake and want him gone. Why then did they go for Conner? I guess Conner has proven himself to be flaky, whereas Nick on the other hand, actually hasn’t shown anything concrete to them in terms of flakiness. Yeah he comes off as shady, but unlike C-dog he hasn’t actually done anything shady. I mentioned above that he was calling the shots so to speak, but that was only after asking The Pu what they wanted to do. He then just told them how to do it.
Good Game
So far I’ve talked a lot about the shite gameplay this episode, but did we see anything good? Hmmm, the strongest player that comes to mind is Brooke. Brooke is someone that has slowly but surely worked her way into a solid position in this game over the last couple of weeks. Earlier this week I was fortunate enough to be invited to contribute to my favourite Australian Survivor podcast to discuss the season thus far (you can listen on Soundcloud and iTunes) and Brooke was certainly someone who was brought up as a possible end game player in that discussion. This was confirmed this episode when not only did she win immunity, we saw her involved in all of the major conversations, either there organically because she had grown alliances with the right people, or inserting herself into conversations that weren’t hers to be in to make sure shit didn’t go awry (possibly the most awkward conversation we’ve seen so far). Gold star for robot girl (to bastardise Robert Pollard).
Where to from here?
The happy family?With twelve people left in the game I am not going to run through possible moves for every player. As I mentioned in my analysis of the previous episode the best thing for anyone to do so early in the post-merge and with so many players in the game, is to lay low and let the tall poppies stick their necks out (#analogymashup #beenlisteningtoandrewtoomuch). Admittedly, there has been a show of solidarity from Saanapu in the first vote, but surely, the cracks have to appear eventually. As viewers we can see those Saanapu crack, I’d imagine that Vavau will see those Saanapu cracks before too long. If they don’t become visible by themselves, a pointed question or two from Sue will elucidate them.
Other Points of Interest
Nick has an idol. Lee has an advantage. How these came about was interesting. We had the classic Survivor auction. A Survivor staple. Though I’ve never seen it with 13 players before. Usually in these cases we see players fall over themselves to try and get the advantage/s from the auction. Tonight was the opposite. Lee’s advantage was probably the cheapest auction advantage in Survivor history at $80. Nick really protested upon discovering what he had bought was an advantage. I guess it comes down to where in the season the auction is. At this stage, people don’t wan’t to be seen to have an advantage because they don’t want to have targets on their backs. In the past when we’ve seen auctions and they have been later in the game, advantages are more advantageous, you need something to get you through just one more tribal. Regardless, Nick’s advantage is an idol clue and he really wastes no time in finding that idol. Lee catches him looking and Nick is left with no choice but to involve Lee in the looking. At this point I wondered if maybe Nick thought both their advantages were clues to the same idol and they had to race to get it. After finding it he shares it with Lee. I’m not convinced that this was a good move. To me it looked like he had an opportunity to pocket it without Lee knowing. He could then have kept looking and Lee could back up his story that he hadn’t found it. He could have continued to share the clue with his alliance (gaining their trust) and kept looking. I’m not sure how long one could keep this up for though. Either way, he’s got an idol, I can’t wait to see how he uses (or misuses) it. I’m sure he said he was going to share it with his alliance but I don’t think I actually saw him tell anyone but Lee he had it. Maybe I missed a scene, you can correct me in the comments below.
Lee’s advantage is a little more interesting in that it is not so common. Though we’ve seen this advantage in previous seasons, I think we’re yet to see it used effectively. Unfortunately with it being in Lee’s hands, it looks like we may not see that this season either. I’d be happy to be proven wrong and to watch Lee use it to bowl a maiden over. I’m hoping that maiden is Flick.
Pink bracelets. Actually I think the less said about that the better.
Now that Saanapu has Conner out of their system I’m really interested to see how the individual game shakes down and maybe see what some of these sleeper players in Lee, El, and JL, and even Matt can do. Sammy’s a fuggin’ write off. I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.
If he has Sam at that point he may not even need it. If he doesn’t have Sam then the least that the advantage can do is cause a tie scenario, which is better than going home outright. Is there any value in Lee or El voting out the other now? Firstly, I don’t think they will just because they have been very tight all the way through. Secondly, as each of them are such big threats to everyone else, they need to keep each other around to a) have stronger numbers and b) have a meat shield, someone else who could be perceived as a bigger threat. If we end up with Lee and El in the final two I would be very disappointed, but it is a distinct possibility. That leaves Matt and Sam for us to ponder on.
Drop Your Buffs! 