Tag: blindside

Episode 15 – ‘One Night Stand’ OR ‘Gang of Four’

Don’t let there be any big surprises at this tribal (ffs how many times did J-LaP ask about that tonight?), check the previous episode’s analysis here!

I don’t understand what these people on Asaga are doing. Am I obtuse? Do I not understand this game at all? Perhaps there was a lot here that we didn’t see or was edited out. I’m not saying I disagree with the choice to take out Odette, I just don’t understand people’s justifications. Particularly with T-Bone still in the mix(ed grill).

Anyway let’s make like Luke in the jungle and search for some meaning in all of this.

Unhappy Family

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TFW there’s more letters in your tribe name than members of your tribe

Before I get into individual gameplay I have to say how shocked I was at the amount of strategy disclosed during tribal tonight. Everybody sitting on the log tonight seemed more than happy to tell J-LaP, and thus the rest of the tribe, what their game plan was going forward. Not even in a fake-out way to trick Odette. I guess that tells us that this group of people are pretty much exhausted and done working with one another, or completely comfortable with one another (which I really can’t believe). I can’t see any other justification short of sheer stupidity, or at the very least, poor cognizance that this disclosure could actually work against them. It’s not very often that I make solid predictions, but contrary to Odette’s opinion I have to believe that none of these people can win this game.

Free(d) Agent

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Odette learns a new word…

There’s not much to say about Odette that I haven’t said before. Floating can only work for so long. I know there’s people out there that thought that this floating, much like Kristie’s last season, could take her all the way. The difference between Odette and Kristie is that Kristie actually did make strategic decisions about where she would float to. Odette’s strategy on the other hand seemed to be to just vote with the majority every time. And given she didn’t know what the majority was, that it seemed to come down to her, she couldn’t make an actual decision. She even went as far as saying that she would toss a coin, and I don’t think she was just saying that. I get the impression that if there was a coin on island she would have done that. And when she told camp (I’m not sure who was there exactly, if you know leave a comment below) that she would do that I was shocked. That sort of behaviour has never worked in Survivor. It didn’t work for Sean back in the very first season of US Survivor almost twenty years ago, just like it didn’t work for Barry last year. We suspected all along that Odette really didn’t understand this game, last episode she showed that she had no idea what the phrase ‘swing vote’ really meant, that you have the power to swing the vote your way. Again she had that power tonight and completely squandered it. Anybody who knows anything about how to play this game would take the opportunity to analyse what they can do with that power, not just for tonight’s vote but for their future game, and maneuver accordingly. You know what, y’all know this stuff, I’m not going to go on talking about what she did wrong. It’s all very obvious to even the johnniest of come-latelies. She seems like a really lovely person who I’d love to get to know, but Survivor is not her bag, at least not this season. I’d love to see her come back and play again having (hopefully) learned more about how to play this great game. T-Bone on the other hand…

River Dunce

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🎵…flippie to the flippie, to the flip, flip, flop, and you don’t stop a rock it, to the bang, bang boogie…🎵

I should preface this next section by acknowledging the possibility that my personal preference or otherwise toward Tara as a person could cloud my strategic view. I suspect that were I on island with Tara, she and I would not get along. I find her irksome and I cringe whenever I see her onscreen. So it’s possible that the following is more a reflection of my distaste for her than my disrespect of her game and where she stands in the game dynamic.
Why was T-Bone not the easy vote tonight? I would argue that she’s a greater threat than Odette post merge. She is just as unpredictable as Odette if not more-so. And she has ties to Samatau. Could they be looking at her as a goat? She is a very risky goat. Likely to flip (and flop) at a moment’s notice. Why her name did not come up tonight (or at least we didn’t see it) has me completely bum-puzzled. Having said that, she now is in a good position to get as far as her personality and gameplay allow her. Which way should she be going post-merge? Well she has to assess her options. We don’t know exactly what her old Samatau friends; Locky, Anneliese, and even Pirate Petey think about working with her. One would assume Locky would take whatever alliance is going at the moment. She needs to suss this out and let the big, noise-making players take the heat while she finds her path.

Model Prisoner in the Five-Senses Realm

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Sarah – “Perhaps you shouldn’t be such a jerk then jerk”

I mentioned in my last analysis, and previously in the series, that Sarah needs a wingman, and that wingman should be Odette. While I do feel that riding this trio train (plus the T-Bone caboose) into merge station is safer than shuffling in as part of an Asaga divided, I stand by the decision that she needs a wingman. Perhaps she sees Pirate Petey as that wingman. Good luck if that’s the case. The foursome she is riding in with will only stay together for so long, and I’ve no doubt she knows that. Having Odette loyally by her side (if of course Odette could have ever been convinced to be loyal and join a strong twosome) would have helped her ride the storm once Jerkicho and Luke inevitably decided to sever ties. I do agree with her however that tonight was not the night to try and lose Luke. So notwithstanding that I think it was better to get rid of T-Bone than Odette, if she had tried to lose Luke, then the risk was too strong that this could backfire and put her back in the immediate firing line. Much better that she let him go to merge as her shield, as he now looks to Samatau that he was running the show in Asaga. She can keep that shield for as long as works for her while she finds another path to the end with the other players. I shouldn’t dismiss the strategic possibility of actually really joining Luke and Jerkicho as a solid threesome to the end. While I’d like to think that this option should remain open for strategic reasons, the reality is that there is too much animosity between them for that to occur.

Circle Jerk

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I thought “A-game to the A-frame” was the worst J-LaPism I’d ever heard until he followed it a minute later with “near the end of the limit!”….so you mean, like, the ‘limit’???

Firstly, what is it with Jerkicho and his war metaphors? Fuggin christianity… Anyway, I do have to give credit to Jerkicho for a few things today. His performance in the challenge was nothing short of powerful. Well done. Also well done for the way he made Odette feel comfortable about the impending vote. For a while there, I wasn’t sure what he was doing, I thought he was putting a target on his own back by so openly strategising with Odette directly after his alliance had all seemingly agreed Odette was the target. I suspect there was a conversation there amongst the foursome that we did not see. That it was agreed that Jerkicho should go and talk to O to make her feel comfortable. Other than that I don’t think I saw anything from Jerkicho that interested me.

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“Clearing out the forest” – actual footage of Luke trimming his pubes again

Same goes for Luke. Again, I agree that it was time to set enmity aside and take out Odette as an easy vote, rather than raise Sarah’s hackles and consequently raise the risk that he could go tonight, and hope they’ll merge shortly. I’m unsure whether it is better for him to keep T-Bone over Odette. Is it possible that he still thinks that he can sway Tara? I can see that he would be arrogant enough to think so. For him I suspect it was six of one and half a dozen of the other. He’s not interested in either long term. From here though, with a merge on the horizon, it might be time to turn on the charm offensive and try his luck as a number with either of he Samatau alliances. Either way it will be interesting to see just what happens for him during the merge, particularly what happens between he and Zenry, given Zenry is in a weak position within his Samatau homies.

That will do for tonight. Overall this was a somewhat boring episode, but when it comes to ‘reality tv’ they can’t all be staggeringly stupendous. Until merge Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

 

Episode 5 – ‘Bye Bye Misfits’ or ‘Bye Bye Miss Fit’

Don’t be caught spewin’, know how we got here by catching up on yesterday’s analysis.

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I don’t need to add a thing to this, it’s perfectly delicious! I could watch it for hours.

Finally we got exactly what we asked for and know the dynamics of the Samatau tribe. And oh how quickly the game has turned. I must admit heading in to tribal, everything about the edit, not just this episode, but this series, was telling me that AK (Male Rebel Wilson) was going tonight. I would have been unhappy, but not surprised if this were the case. So for it to turn out the way it did? Well let’s just say that there was so much fist pumping going on in my loungeroom that you might think CENSORED CENSORED CENSORED all over the CENSORED CENSORED. But was this actually the best move for the new dominant alliance in Samatau?

You Done Messed Up A-A-Ron! (maybe he didn’t but I really wanted to use that line)

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Premature high five?

Before I get started on whether Aimee was the right target, I need to acknowledge something that AK did tonight that I thought was exquisite. When he was telling us that he needed one more number, and that he thinks he might be able to get Peter, I was screaming at the TV “Get Jarrad to do it!!”. Thankfully he heard me. To hear AK then tell us that this was a better job for Jarrad because Jarrad has a softer approach, well I was really impressed with the insight that he showed. He’s come a long way from episode one where he was a complete bull at a gate. Itching to get into it. It didn’t just come across as shady, it actually came across as insincere. Since nearly going home in episode 2 for it, he may not have changed his strategy in terms of manouvering, but he certainly changed his social game. Whenever I’ve seen him speak with others recently he’s come across as very sincere and humble. Well done sir.

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Ooh, go easy JLP!

Back to targeting Aimee, let’s think this through for AK. This move has undermined Locky’s power in the game certainly. Now that we finally know that Peter, Jarrad, and even Ziggy feel vulnerable under his rule, why not vote him out? Is it about keeping Locky around as a meat shield? Much like week old Devon though, that’s some very risky meat though (I know I know, devon’s barely meat, but it feels good to talk about Devon). Locky’s not going to go down without a fight. I feel he still has it in him to convince Ziggy and others to flip back and vote out AK as he’s clearly such a strategic threat. We heard Ziggy say that she is in a final three alliance with AK and Jarrad, but we’ve only heard her say that to AK. I did feel a little that AK was coming on too strong when he was trying to sure up his position in the eyes of Locky, Tara, and Aimee. And good on Tara for having the insight to still be very wary of him.

It seems to me now that Locky was a better target.

So from here we see both Locky and Tara, both influential, in a position where they are going to fight hard and probably not going to flip against each other. Had Locky been removed then we would be left with Aimee and Tara. They don’t seem to be particularly loyal to one another, and it had already been determined that Aimee was a sheep. The new alliance could easily scoop Aimee up in the battle to remove Anneliese or Tara. It seems to me now that Locky was a better target. Particularly for AK who had everything to lose. It was not like if the plan against Locky hadn’t worked then AK would be stuck on a tribe with Locky after trying to vote him out, AK’d be gone. I hope to be proven wrong that this this was the wrong move. Time will tell. So what can Locky do now?

No Longer a Misfit, So it’s Time for Loki’s Mischief (do Norse mythology references work in this blog?)

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Modesty’s not really your forte either is it dude?

He’s been thrown a lifeline, what should he do with it? Presumably he still has Tara and Anneliese in his corner. Are there two others that would flip back to their side and vote with them? I don’t think there are. At this point, imminent merge/shuffle notwithstanding (which I had predicted could be as soon as the next episode, but wasn’t mentioned in the preview, leading me to reconsider), I suspect the best way for him to save himself now is to flip on Tara or Anneliese. Tessa fuggin hates Tara (much like myself) and would be happy to see her go. It’s true that AK is a threat but everybody already knows that, they’ll want him gone eventually, but are happy to use him as their number for now. In this sense, AK could almost be Locky’s meat shield (now that’s some smelly baloney!). So I suggest Locky’s best move is to go and apologise to AK for not working with him and for being so arrogant, and make moves against Tara. However I don’t suspect this is within Locky’s repertoire, he’s too proud and, despite his protestations at the previous tribal, he loves being the alpha male and would never submit to someone like AK, even just for appearances. What about T-Bone (Tara for those who’ve been following the analysis since episode 1) now?

T-Bone Gettin’ Cooked!

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“How do you like your steak?”

Just as it was for Locky, my suggestion for Tara would be to show some humility here. She was outplayed. Judging the preview of tomorrow night however, as we would actually expect from T-Bone, she clicks it. Digging a hole for herself making it easier for Locky and Anneliese to piss down on her. Given what we learnt tonight about her relationship with P-Styles (I’m trying that out for Peter, let me know what you think. Maybe P-Con?), perhaps the better move would be to have a chat with him, and try and work her way back into the tribe’s good books. Or at least find out if there’s a possibility she can shift the target from her to anyone else. Will she do this? Guess we won’t know until we get there.

You Can’t Spell ‘Anneliese’ Without ‘Lies’

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I’m not touching that one…

I imagine things are feeling shaky for Anneliese now too. Is there a way she can ingratiate herself back into the now dominant alliance? I don’t know that she has any relationship with any of those players. It is important for her however to find out where Locky’s head is at. There’s a possibility he could flip on her to save himself and Tara. If she gets the impression that this is a possibility, then vote with the new alliance. Tara and Locky are the bigger threats here so it’s best for her to blend in to the background somewhat and let the heat flow their way. Ultimately as long as Locky and T-Bone don’t try to throw her under the balls, I don’t think it makes a difference if she votes with them or against them. With a merge/shuffle likely around the corner and the two of them bigger threats than she is and should be safe until then. Play it cool Anneliese.

Paging Dr. Comeback

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“Ooh Jarrad it’s not just the storm that’s making me wet.”

I’m so glad Dr. T is still around. She makes things so much more interesting. Her play here is pretty simple. Lay low. There’s much bigger targets around than here. Start subtly working the social relationship with Zig-a-zig-ah, P-Con and Jarrad (sorry Jazzy J, I don’t have a nickname for you yet) and vote whichever way you’re told. Like Markzan, I have confidence in you. Unlike Markzan, I don’t show it by voting against you.

P(eter)eanut butter and J(arrad)elly

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Jarrad’s vote could swing either way #toteshomo

Welcome to the game lads. To be fair I’m sure they’ve been playing a solid game thus far, we just haven’t been seeing it. I suspect they’ve been going with the flow waiting for a time like this to nudge the game in their favour. Well done men. Looking forward to seeing more from you. Pearl Jam (does that work for Peter and Jarrad or is it a stretch? Fuck it, I’m going with it) now find themselves in a position of power. The best move for them is to stick with AK, Tess and Zig until merge/shuffle, vote out Locky, and go from there. Too risky to keep Locky around and I don’t think Tess or AK are going to flip against them. Things are pretty solid for the next few tribals for them unless something ridiculous happens.

Little Tribe Blue, Where Are You?

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We are at 66% Samatau! 

I’m well aware that I haven’t talked Asaga at all this post, that’s because there’s nothing of note to talk of there. I’m not even going to utter the C-word. You know, the one Jericho is no longer munching on. To quote Jerkicho himself, the tribe, or what we’re being shown of it is “booooring”.

Before I go a quick note to say how happy I am that we’re five episodes in and have had a boot every night. Thanks for listening to the fans channel ten. I hope I haven’t jinxed it.
Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 21 – ‘I’m a Believe-her’ OR ‘Last Train to Brookesville’

If you were blindsided by what happened tonight, it’s because you haven’t been playing along. Check out my analysis of the previous episode here.

Huzzah! We have some gameplay! The Brick has finally split in two, and it happened from within. Big ups to Flick for getting rid of the one person that nobody could beat in a final two (that breakdown is here). After the last episode I suggested that Lee and El be broken up first, so I’m a little disappointed that Flick didn’t listen. Regardless, let’s eat the dog and discuss whether this was the best move for the guys tonight.

Flick Flop

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Our puppet-master pulls all of the strings and doesn’t even need to be there…
Well done Flick. You recognised that Brooke was a threat to your game long term and you made moves to disable the threat. Textbook play too. I am a little worried that it may have been one move too early as Lee and El now still hold the power among the remaining players, and Lee holds an advantage. Though to be fair, had she waited one more tribal then it is likely that Brooke might have made the same play against Flick. Now that would have really been a world war three to behold. Let’s think it through. If El had gone, then that would leave Brooke, Kristie, Matt, Sam, Flick, and Lee. Lee would likely then approach Sam as his next closest alliance, and at this stage it does not look as though Sam is going to turn on Brooke. Giving Brooke the numbers to take out Flick. Ok, Flick IS smarter than I am. Now was the time to take out Brooke. Does this leave a target on her back? Potentially, but she’s done all that she can do to mitigate that in allowing El to come up with Brooke’s name (that was nice). She might now be able to sit back and make it look like this was El’s move and let her take the heat. That would be a fine line to walk there, to get the balance right between having El take the blame for the move in-game, but still be able to take the credit for it with the jury. The other thing to think about is Lee’s advantage. Does she know what Lee’s advantage is? If so I’m wondering if it would have been smart to try and influence him to use that tonight so that he could not use that against her next tribal. I’m not convinced that Lee and/or El would try to move against Flick now. If that’s the case then you want Lee to keep it this tribal so that you definitely have the numbers in a six person tribal. Turning six votes into five and avoiding a tie scenario. So who does Flick need to take out next?

To get through the next tribal I would say Sam. Play up that Sam was going to vote against Lee and keep Lee motivated to take him out. However, Sam is one of the few people that Flick can beat in a final two. Lee and El are the two people who likely could definitely beat her. I would even go as far as saying it’s becoming increasingly likely Kristie could beat her too. So you might want to keep Sam around. So the best move for Flick would be to try and break up Lee and El next. If Lee and El make it to final five and Lee still has his advantage (the last time it can be used is final five), then they pretty much have the game wrapped up. One of them would likely make it to final two and would be very hard to beat. Therefore what Flick needs to do, is appeal to Matt and Sam, tell her why she felt it had to be done, that Brooke was a threat who could not have been beaten, that the next threats are Lee and El and they have to stay together to take them out next, all the while pretending that she is still with Lee and El. Unfortunately this would mean that she would have to rely heavily on Kristie to flip on Lee and El.

Still Floating or Dropping Anchor?

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“Maybe if I keep my mouth shut they’ll forget I’m here and won’t vote for me…”
We saw some nice play from Kristie tonight. Firstly, we’ve been shown a few times over the last couple of episodes that she has actually made some social connections with people. She’s had lots of little interactions around camp that tells us she might not be as much on the periphery as we assume. Two big chats with Lee, high-fiving Matt, water walks with Brooke. She’s clearly still keeping her finger in some pies. She’s also showed us how her mind works when she was determining what Flick’s motivations would be in coming to El about flipping. That was really good to see. But where to from here for her. She’s said all along and she reiterated again tonight that she has played an individual game, and it’s worked well for her so far. It has her in a pretty good position now. She can choose whether to stick with El and Lee, or to move elsewhere. Given that El and Lee are the biggest threat in the game right now, my gut reaction is to break them up. Kristie’s other threat however is Flick. If you’re Kristie, ideally you want to go to the end with Sam or Matt. If you’re Lee and El, you’d probably also prefer to go to the end with Sam or Matt, and not Kristie. Alright, I’ve just convinced myself, the best move for Kristie now is to break up Lee and El, then work on convincing both Sam and Matt that they could never beat Flick in a final two and hope that the final immunity challenge falls your way. This path is a definite possibility, she has a reasonable shot of winning this game now, she just needs to listen to me. My commission is just a fraction of the prize money. That fraction is 499/500ths. With flexibility as Kristie’s arguably greatest asset, is she actually now a threat?

Aganoa, noa, noa. Push pineapple. Shake the tree.

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“Lee, there are no ‘big’ blindsides and ‘small’ blindsides there are just blindsides”
I’ve spoken a lot about how others need to take out Lee and El for the best shot at winning, so what can Lee and El do to make it through this barrage of attacks. Let’s talk advantage first. Obviously, the advantage is more powerful the longer you hold on to it. If they can use it at final five rather than final six then they have a better shot of making it to final two. So they need to find a way to get through the next tribal without using it. To have a majority they need two more. Though I have absolutely no idea where Sam’s head is at after that “big” blindside, I’m going to presume that Lee could spoon him back into an alliance. If they still have Kristie with them then they have the four needed to vote out Flick (provided Flick doesn’t win immunity). The other option, and the one that is perhaps a little more dangerous, is to turn on Kristie. If they can recognise that a) Kristie is someone that the three others could want to take to the end, and b) her flexibility makes her both unpredictable and a threat, then they could possibly form a bipartisan alliance to vote out Kristie. Then once she’s gone Lee still has the advantage to move against Flick.

img_0336If he has Sam at that point he may not even need it. If he doesn’t have Sam then the least that the advantage can do is cause a tie scenario, which is better than going home outright. Is there any value in Lee or El voting out the other now? Firstly, I don’t think they will just because they have been very tight all the way through. Secondly, as each of them are such big threats to everyone else, they need to keep each other around to a) have stronger numbers and b) have a meat shield, someone else who could be perceived as a bigger threat. If we end up with Lee and El in the final two I would be very disappointed, but it is a distinct possibility. That leaves Matt and Sam for us to ponder on.

TimTam Sam and Milk ArrowMatt (if you’ve got a better biscuit reference to apply to Matt I’m all ears)

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“How did the rabbit get into the hat?…”
Sam, Sam, Sam…. Brooke handed you a big move on a silver platter. As she was telling you that it was time to make a big move and break up Lee and El all I heard her say was “Sam, here’s my trust, you need to get out a big player, I’m never going to see it coming, here’s your chance, talk to your buddy Lee and you can have me out of the game. Or Flick if you prefer, it’s totally your choice”. Oh well. I guess what I heard was not what Sam heard. Regardless, result is the same, other than Sam had nothing to do with it and missed a chance at a move and feels on the outs. I have no idea how Sam and Matt are going to react to this blindside. As much as Matt thought that Flick and Brooke were the angels to his Charlie, we all knew the opposite was true. Sam and Matt were the Rocksteady and Bebop to Brick’s Krang. Brick was the brains and they were the meat that did the brain’s bidding. I mentioned above that I think that it is still possible for Flick to salvage an alliance with Sam and Matt, and to be honest, that is probably the best thing for those guys to do. Given the best shot that Sam, Matt and Kristie have in a final two is against each other, the move for Sam and Matt now is to stick with Flick and break up Lee and El, then take out Flick and fight it out amongst themselves for a final two. Hope you’re listening boys. I don’t want to see Lee or El in the final two.

Bye Bye Brooke

Sorry to see you go Brooke. You played an incredible game. Unfortunately when you play so well it makes you a huge threat and it was only a matter of time before somebody tried to neutralise you. I don’t think there was much you could do about it short of winning immunity. It seemed that you had some misgivings or uncertainty about Flick in this episode, as though you felt that she may have been doing something shady. It did seem in Flick’s conversations with both Brooke one on one and when she was talking to the original Pu-ans that she was hiding something, but I may just have been thinking that because I knew that she was. I would have thought that Matt would pick up on that. Perhaps if you guys had these misgivings about Flick then you could have had a chat to Kristie to see if she would give anything away. I think that you thought you had it wrapped up and didn’t need to. Anyway, we’ll miss you. Your probably played the smartest game out there, shame that it had to come to an end. I also never get to use ‘Brick’ again. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.

Brick.

– Russell Feathers

Episode 22 analysis here!