Episode 21 – ‘Buddy System’ OR ‘Getting Wood’

Need a sugar rush before you hit this analysis? Read the previous episodes analysis here!

3E6288E5-CA6D-4904-87C1-7975EA8DCCAC — ***When Luke says this he gets a pat on the back and a free meal, When I do it I get slapped with an AVO and my mugshot taken.***

Fasten your seatbelts. Tonight is a bumpy ride and you don’t want to be thrown from the vehicle. With all the talk this episode about who you might want to go to the end with, I thought it was about time we examined the potential Jury votes.

Below I have laid out the order of preference in which each member of the Jury will vote to win (for example, if Peter and Jerkicho were the final two. Jarrad would vote for Peter, however if Locky and Peter were final two, Jarrad would vote for Locky):

Jarrad: Ziggy, Locky, Peter, Tara, Jerkicho, Michelle
Anneliese: Ziggy, Locky, Peter, Michelle, Jerkicho, Tara
Henry: Locky, Ziggy, Jerkicho, Michelle, Peter, Tara
Tessa: Ziggy, Locky, Peter, Jerkicho, Michelle, Tara
Sarah: Jerkicho, Ziggy, Tara, Michelle, Peter, Locky
Luke: Jerkicho, Locky, Ziggy, Michelle, Peter, Tara
Jerkicho: Locky, Ziggy, Michelle, Peter, Tara
Locky: Ziggy, Jerkicho, Tara, Peter, Michelle
Michelle: Jerkicho, Locky, Peter, Ziggy, Tara
Peter: Ziggy, Jerkicho, Locky, Michelle, Tara
Tara: Ziggy, Peter, Michelle, Jerkicho, Locky
Ziggy: Locky, Jerkicho, Peter, Michelle, Tara

I have to say I don’t feel particularly confident with these rankings. I have no idea how well Peter and Jerkicho will argue their game in the final tribal, and there’s some people who I am uncertain about when it comes to how they will vote on the Jury (eg Jarrad and Ziggy). Let me know what you would change in the comments.

Based on these numbers, Tara can’t win. Michelle can only beat Tara. Peter can only beat Tara and Michelle. Jerkicho and Locky will beat each of these three, but will draw against each other (I don’t know what happens in a tie vote when it’s a final two, can anyone fill me in?). If Ziggy makes it to final two she will win.

The above might help guide us as we break down tonight’s episode.

A Big Annoying Thing

CB6A55F2-F028-4541-8B4A-7D6B3166D62E — ***I never get sick of watching this.***

I don’t want to spend too much time talking about what Tara did or didn’t do tonight (I don’t think I’ve ever cringed as much watching reality television as I did tonight, but I’ve never watched The Bachelor/ette) as she’s the only person that based on the above cannot win this game. I was surprised that she told Ziggy about moving against Locky. At first I put it down to her not having any idea about how to play this game. It turned out that Ziggy seemed to be receptive to the idea (‘seemed to be’, damn she’s hard to read) so the egg was on my face. My thinking was that once she had Luke and Jerkicho she only needed one other, and Peter or Michelle seemed to be more likely to follow that plan. Again, based on the above, IF there is a remote shot T-Bone could win, it could only be against Peter or Michelle, so it would make sense to bring one of those two guys in rather than the one other person who is ostensibly in an alliance with the person you are trying to remove. Whatever, I said I don’t want to talk too much T-Bone and I don’t. So I best just leave it there other than to briefly discuss her moral dilemma. I’m glad she took the lollies (of course she would), I would have done the same at this point in the game, though I did wonder if lollybreath would be hard to mask out there. Initially I couldn’t understand why she chose Ziggy to share with. Upon further consideration I understand why you might want to give sugar to the one person who has a shot at beating your target in an immunity challenge. I doubt that is what T-Bone was thinking though.

Michelle ‘n’ Man

1FCC4ADE-DAE4-4612-82B5-8A79BD372496 — ***‘A’ stands for ‘asking Peter what to do’***

Was taking out Luke the best move for Michelle and Peter tonight? It seemed that Michelle was just happy to go with the numbers, looking to Peter thoughout tribal for ani indication on which way he’d vote. My heart says no, I would have personally preferred to see Ziggy go over Luke. But my head says, I don’t know. I’m torn between taking the opportunity to remove an immunity threat (take out Ziggy), and, taking the opportunity to split up Jerkicho and Luke (such a strong pair are only going to become more powerful as the numbers dwindle). At this stage I’m leaning toward breaking up Luke and Jerkicho. In a game of ‘buddies’, if you can keep a strong two person alliance and break down other two-person alliances, you’re doing well. Disabling the Luke and Jerkicho alliance arguably puts Peter and Michelle in the strongest position in the game, numbers-wise. They will be of use when Locky and Ziggy go at each other next episode (admittedly a weak assumption, and given their history I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to work together, I would still say unlikely though), so they should get through at least one more tribal. That puts them in the final five, they get one person with them and they’re in the final four. That’s a 50/50 shot of making the finale. I hope for their sake they can appreciate the power that they have at the moment, and wield it effectively.

A Straight Up Rascal

26512963-969D-4FBE-81DC-CBCC76EDAF1D — ***Still wiping off cookie crumbs…***

We are now staring down the barrel of a potential Jerkicho win. That’s how terrible this season has become. If you had told me at episode 9 or 10 (when did AK go?), that this would be our top 6, I would not have believed you. Well here we are, and I am not happy. I’ve always said that one of the things I love about Survivor is that there is no right or wrong way to play (despite my regular advice to the contrary), that the results justify the means, if you happen to win (Survivor is one of the few games where a player who comes second did not necessarily play a better game than the person who came third, or tenth). A winner has outplayed, outwitted, and outlasted everyone else, it doesn’t matter how they get there, they deserve to win. That’s the beauty of the Jury system. Having said all that, I am extremely disappointed in this top 6. Last season we lost our most deserving player at the time in Brooke, episode 21 as well. At least then we still had Flick for a couple of episodes. It has me questioning whether there is something about the Australian format that has us come to this situation, an underwhelming top 6. Let me know if you have any thoughts about flaws in the current format in the comments.

Back to the gameplay. Obviously without Luke, Jerkicho is vulnerable. I do see him as an immunity threat, I wonder if his opponents do too. For him now it’s important that he get rid of Ziggy and Locky ASAP, so he can win immunities into the final two. I would argue that for him to do that he needs to lose the next immunity, then side with the winner (assuming it is Locky or Ziggy) to vote against the loser. Let them do all the work, creating a bigger target for their back next tribal should they lose immunity. Unfortunately he really is a solid shot to win this game, if he can provide a solid argument at the final tribal. I’d love to talk at length here about Jerkicho’s use of metaphor at tribal. Not just in terms of entertainment, but from a strategic point of view, but it’s a longer discussion I’ll leave for another time.

Thinking it Through Logilocky

With Ziggy at most likely to win if she makes it to final two, it goes without saying that it behooves Locky to remove Ziggy ASAP. So should he have gone for Ziggy tonight instead of Luke? I don’t think so. By targeting Luke he damages Jerkicho’s power (the only other person who could possibly beat him) and can now use Jerkicho to help him remove Ziggy. Luke was also more likely than Ziggy to persuade Michelle to work their way. He still has a huge target on his back, and we know he’s not so well liked by T-Bone. I don’t know what his path to the final two looks like. I suspect that the first immunity he loses, he’s going home. If you see another way for him, lay it out for me below.

Zig in a Poke

***Actual footage of Ziggy looking for a buddy***

Unbeatable in the final two, Ziggy will have her work cut out for her to get there. I’m going to suggest a perhaps risky play for her, and that is to convince Locky or Jerkicho to take her to the end. While the above numbers suggest that she can beat these two, they are the riskiest opponents to go against. However, as arrogant as they are, they are also the people most likely to believe that they can beat her. I can’t see Michelle or Peter thinking they can beat her, and T-Bone has only just figured out what a goat is. Of course her best bet is to continue winning immunity, failing that, the above suggestion is as good as any. She should at least feel out whether it is feasible. If it’s clear that it’s not, move on to aligning with the other three to buy her a little time and hope that she at least wins immunities where it counts. Before I get off Zig I must mention how much I liked the way she framed to T-Bone what they should do once Locky won immunity. By framing the play by saying they need to keep around people who could beat Locky in immunity challenges, she leveraged T-Bone’s distaste for Locky while simultaneously protecting herself. It was sweeter than a jar of party mix.

Aloha Luke

1C117255-708F-4053-9A57-9DE587001C76 — ***He’s certainly going all the way somewhere***

I know I maligned his strategy last episode, to use a friend’s line, it was ‘short-sighted and simplistic’, but it got him to the point where he was the most deserving player left in the game, which is probably why he went. Was there much he could do to save himself? I’m sure many will argue that leaving Michelle out of the loop is what saw him go home tonight. I would disagree. I think that he just didn’t work her hard enough after doing so. And I did love the way he and Jerkicho made T-Bone feel like it was her big move to take out Locky. I’m sad to see him go. He was damn entertaining. Because of him I’ll never be able to ask people how to spell their names at tribal council (that was a joke I was saving for if I ever played), the bastard.

Remember that US Survivor starts Thursday. Online on 9Now from 3pm, or watch on free to air television at 7:30. I’m looking forward to a fun season. Until next week, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Russell Feathers needs your help, especially if you’re an aspie. Do you have a knack for finding typos, spelling, or other grammatical errors? Do you love pointing them out? If you’re one of these hotshit people and have found anything above, please let me know here! (Neurotypicals not excluded)

Tara’s getting better at impressions, this is her ‘drunk football playing moth’

Episode 20 – ‘Michelle Shocked’ OR ‘Once Bitten, Twice ‘Chelle’

Where to start on tonight’s episode? When the highlight of the episode is charades you know there’s not too much strategy to talk about. A snack pack of popcorn chicken is meatier than this episode. Let’s not get in a flap about it though, I fuggin LOVED the charades. I don’t know that I’ve ever laughed so hard at reality television before. Has T-Bone ever seen an octopus or a moth? Well done Channel Ten/Endemol Shine. You’ve really brought your A game to the challenges this season. Although I do question the immunity challenge in this episode. Can anyone tell me if we’ve ever seen this type of head to head tournament for individual immunity before? I don’t like it. It’s much more suited to reward or tribal immunity. Anyway, that’s enough talk about Survivor the show, let’s talk about Survivor the game.

Sarah. Sarah. No Time is a Good Time for Goodbyes

DAB1A218-CFF7-4BEE-8139-7E849ED681C9 — ***Actual footage of a cat about to drown.***

This result is completely down to Sarah’s social game. Sarah told everyone this episode not to be emotional, but emotional intelligence is exactly what she needed tonight. I’m not suggesting that Sarah is a cold person in general. I don’t know if the stress and the game is getting to her. But a bucket of nuggets could see that Michelle needed more engagement than what Sarah gave her. I don’t want to get into the previous episode too much or I’ll be writing until dawn, but had I posted analysis last night, I would have agreed with Luke’s assessment not to tell Michelle what was happening regarding the Tessa vote. That agreement though would have come with caveats. That either she is told directly before, or at, tribal council, or failing that, that she is bought back into the fold ASAP post tribal council. Now Sarah told us during tribal that she did try talking to Michelle after the decision. The conversation that we did see (THE NEXT DAY!) between Michelle and Sarah was as awkward as the joke T-Bone tried to tell before the reward challenge.

AE39560C-B688-431B-A202-7098DF08A897 — ***The reward may have been for KFC, but this was no Zinger…***

The conversation basically went the way of Michelle telling her alliance that she felt hurt and betrayed and couldn’t trust them further. To which Sarah responded by coldly trying to tell Michelle why she was wrong, and why this is better for her. You can’t logic someone’s emotions away, it doesn’t work. The only way to change emotion is to connect emotionally. Then once Michelle feels heard to understood, then she can listen to the logic of your plan. Hell, you don’t even need to try and convince her of the logic or the game plan. You need her as a number, let her feel that you’ll do whatever she wants on the next vote. Once it was clear to everyone that Michelle was unhappy and likely to flip, it was game over for Sarah, there was little she could do, the numbers became unassailable. If there was any sentiment in Samatau that they may be willing to vote Michelle, Sarah did not do her best to bolster it. She actually never made a case that it should be Michelle. I guess during tribal she was still trying to hide from Michelle that her name was on the chopping block, but what she should have been doing is undermining Michelle and detailing how unpredictable and emotional she is, and therefore a liability in this game. To be honest though, I don’t think it would have helped. At this stage of the game people will always take out a threat before they take out an easy vote. Particulalry if they can have that easy vote vote with them in future tribals. Tessa made a well-articulated point in the previous tribal. That is that it’s important to understand what is good for your opponents game and what is in their best interests. It seems Sarah completely missed that. Luke and Jerkicho knew it, making it a seven vote landslide against Sarah. The other option she has once she knows her name is on the chopping block (and it seemed pretty clear to her it was) is to present an even juicier target than Michelle or herself, Ziggy. You don’t even need Michelle for that, all you need is Luke, Jerkicho, Tara, and Peter. That could have been worth a shot. Perhaps knowing that Michelle was gunning for her actually did affect her emotionally, and did not allow her to see that there were other moves ahead than retaliating against Michelle.

Big Bash Luke

7BF76094-E775-40E5-9736-2602D4B45A3D — ***GIF captioner got it wrong, what he actually sang was “I know Asaga will get on your nerves”, and he was singing to Michelle…***

Luke did somewhat better than Sarah in placating Michelle. Firstly he approached her directly after tribal. During this interaction, unlike Sarah, he engaged with her emotionally, looked her in the eye. It looked like he apologised. And for his part during the above in tent conversation with his alliance, he literally lay down, and let Sarah take the heat. He and Jerkicho were also smart enough to realise that there was no changing her mind, and that voting against her would only damage the relationship they need with her, particularly now that Sarah is gone. So what can they do now? I don’t know that I’ve discussed this before but often thought it; Luke’s strategy seems to be take down whoever he sees as the biggest threat whenever he can. I can’t really argue with that strategy, he’s made it this far, and could actually win the game with it. And I hate to say it, but of the seven players we now have remaining, he’s probably most deserving. Just a smidge above Ziggy. Oh gee that’s a sad thought, considering the caliber of some of the players we started with. Anyway, my point is that I don’t think he considers the ramifications of his actions beyond the immediate. This was clear for the Tessa vote. While I’m sure he sees Sarah as an eventual threat, he needed her for at least one more vote. So I am surprised he didn’t try harder to get the vote off her and try and shift it toward Ziggy as suggested above. I guess it was too late to put in all the work required to pull that off. Anyway, Luke’s and Jerkicho’s best bet now is with both Michelle and Peter in the game, move on Locky and Ziggy. They need to be split, now. Admittedly, if Locky and Ziggy are still around two more votes then they’ll likely turn on each other (again in Ziggy’s case). They can’t wait for this to happen, because I’ve no doubt that Luke and Jerkicho are in Locky’s and Ziggy’s sights. Speaking of Ziggy, how ‘bout that idol play?

Gettin’ Ziggy With(out) It

C00C21EA-A83E-4751-B273-50F9D9EF9B22 — *Whatever* KFC *paid to have their products on Survivor, it was worth it for this GIF…* K-Fucking Ching

I don’t blame her at all for playing her immunity idol. I think it’s more indicative of her paranoia than it is of any poor game-awareness. Things are at fever pitch, there’s blindside’s coming left, right and centre. While you wouldn’t say that the previous tribal went against her, she was just as blind-sided by it as Tessa was. I’d be jumpy too. Of course she’d be better off keeping it, but I’d much rather look like a fool playing it when I didn’t need to and staying in the game, than not playing it when I had it and being booted out. She’s a target with or without it. Without the safety buffer it affords her though, she really needs a friend. Hello Peter! We really are in a situation where we have power players, and their goats. Locky has Tara (for now). Locky and Jerkicho have Michelle. Peter is a goat without a home. Ziggy can be that home. From there it’s a matter of splitting Luke and Jerkicho, then taking out Locky. Easier said than done, but certainly easier if you have Peter in your pocket. This may not suit Peter though.

Playing it for Himself

66E7EFCD-AE0E-448B-A1BC-0DA4052FA65A — ***Totes homo***

I loved Peter telling Ziggy to play the idol for Michelle. If he was sincere, it does suggest that his maths is not great. Either he suspects that Locky or Tara were voting against Michelle (unlikely), or he played it for the reason I hope he played it for, to make Michelle believe that he is with her. There are very few people he can beat in a tribal council, so he needs to work with Tara and Michelle. As I did last year at around this point, I’ll run through these numbers in more detail in the next post. Before I go though…

“I’m not being emotional, I’m just hurt and pissed off and disappointed”

***….and now we’ve seen The Hangover 4…***

Oh Michelle. This is terrible play. She really is blinded by her emotions. Yes, she was left out of a big decision, but now she has one less ally. It’s not all bad though. She hasn’t completely burned her bridges with Luke and Jerkicho. And while Locky and Ziggy will drop her without a second thought once they feel she’s no longer useful, Peter is still an option for her. I can’t even begin to think where T-Bone sits in all this though. I have no idea what her game plan is other than to do whatever Locky says, and if we are to believe the preview for the next episode, then it seems she won’t be doing that much longer anyway. If we believe the preview.

0E12C5A4-467C-4DB1-B2CF-3A8765362510 — 🎵*Let me roll with your body baby, make you feel hot*🎵

I think that’s going to have to do for this post. I know I haven’t talked much about Locky, but that’s mostly just because I couldn’t think of a Locky/Loggy pun funny enough to be worthy of inclusion. Perhaps I need to ask T-Bone for some tips. Hopefully Locky is still about after the next episode so that I can spend some time contemplating the future of his game. Until then, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

809DA8BC-FCF0-47AC-B1ED-566838F3B30F — ***OK, just one more… DO DO DO The Funky Gibbon***

Episode 19 – ‘The Sit Out Bench’ OR ‘Spa Reward’

Unfortunately a personal emergency means I won’t be posting analysis of this episode. See you for episode 20!!

Episode 18 – ‘Won’t Get Fooled Again’ OR ‘Bubbly O’Riley’*

Consensus is never the real fact, and Survivor ain’t Survivor unless you’re up to date with Drop Your Buffs! Check out last night’s analysis here.

***Clinking the ‘air’ champagne glasses…***

As a blogger I hate it when Survivor goes to three nights a week. Damn Channel Ten, give a man a chance to sleep. And there was so much going on tonight that I’m sure this will be a long one. But these last two episodes have made it worth it. Two very, very entertaining episodes. Not only were they choc full of meaty strategy, they were full of laugh out loud moments. Particularly when Jerkicho is involved. It’s true, I love to hate him. It will be sad to see him go. Though I expect not as sad as seeing Zenry go tonight.

Behind Blue Eyes

All good things come to an end. Certainly our mate has made some genius moves, but has also made some questionable ones. What did Zenry do wrong tonight? Well I would argue that he did nothing wrong this episode. Tonight he was just outplayed, by a tribe working in unison to deceive and not tip their hand. However the roots of this downfall arguably lay in his telling Anneliese he had an idol way back when he moved to Samatau. At the time I thought this was not smart. That it was a late night moment of weakness. I’ve always said that it can be wise to share an idol with someone if you want to solidify a bond. But telling Anneliese this, seemingly in an attempt just to get anyone and everyone on his side, I thought was risky. And then moving against her after having given her this information was not wise. If you’re going to share that information with someone to form a bond, then keep your bond. Only do it if it’s someone that you want to play with long-term, and I don’t think that he had that in mind when he told Anneliese.

*Stoking the fire while fanning the flames..*

I was shocked to hear that Michelle knew of his idol and wondered if I’d missed something. Then when it was revealed that Anneliese had told Sarah, the penny dropped. When did that happen? Were we the audience aware of this already? Please fill me in below if that’s the case. It also means that Sarah told Michelle. When did THAT happen?!?! Have there been conversations that I have totally missed?!?! Or is Channel Ten just keeping some important conversations from us to make the game more surprising for viewers, and commentators like me, later? If that’s the case, I’m not sure I like it. Survivor has never kept from us who had the idols and who knew (other than episode 2 this season, where it was kind of the point of the episode, and an anti-climax). Regardless, that Sarah knew and told Michelle reveals so much. At merge we did not know the old Asaga dynamic at all, and as the Two previous episodes have focused on Samatau and the big players, I wasn’t sure where Luke, Jerkicho, Michelle, and Sarah stood and what their game plan was (or is it just that I’m obtuse?). We now know that they are working together, for the moment. And that the Cookie Alliance was not a voting block, or at least not with Zenry. Clearly Sarah, Luke, and Jerkicho are strong right now. And Sarah had a killer night tonight.

Who Are You?

***Sarah, Michelle, Fella (see what I did there?)***

That Sarah could trick Zenry into thinking that she was pissed about losing reward (her line “an act to create visible distance between Tess and myself” is pure Survivor poetry), and then play it so cool at tribal, reinforcing to Zenry that she will vote the easy option… Masterclass! If modeling falls through for Sarah, she should give acting a shot. Her manipulation of Jerkicho was delicious. Sweeter than jam on a cookie, chased with champagne.
Incidentally I did really love the imagery of seeing Zenry stoke the fire while he was trying to inflame Sarah’s bitterness of being left out of the Champagne reward.
I hate to say this because it looks like I’m just floating from favourite to favourite here, and while we haven’t seen her be quite this tactical and manipulative before, I think we always suspected she had it in her, and is now in a great position. Especially as it doesn’t at all look like this was her move. To others it looks like this move was orchestrated by Luke, Tess, and Michelle. If she makes it to final tribal it would behoove her to convince the jury that she was behind the move to get Zenry out. But for now she can let everyone think that it was the others. Stay under the radar, and let the threats take the heat. If she really has Michelle in her pocket she needs to keep her there, because Luke and Jerkicho aren’t going to stick with Sarah once their backs are against the wall. If she can also cultivate a relationship with T-Bone, I think she will come in useful for Sarah in the future. I have been high on Sarah here, but I need to give Tess some credit too.

(Pin)Ball Wizard

***I was hoping the jam on those breakfast eclairs brought back talk of #jamgate***

Great job winning immunity Tessa. I’m not even going to make a ball joke. Great job with your pick for reward companion. You said it yourself, Michelle is an emotional voter. If you didn’t know that before the previous episode, I’m glad that you’ve learnt that now. More on the auction later, I will quickly say now how hard it is under pressure to pick a reward companion. She couldn’t have chosen much better tonight. I wonder if that was her plan once the auction started. Where to for Tess now? Great question. In some ways I think she was lucky tonight that the old Asaga alliance had the same target she did. I don’t think she’ll be so lucky in future. What to do though with this knowledge that old Asaga want the big players out? Two options; continue to work with old Asaga to take them out of the game buying you at least two tribals, or work with Ziggy and Locky to keep them around as a shield. Which of these is better for Tess long term? At the moment my head is saying Ziggy needs to go sooner rather than later. With an immunity idol under her belt (is Locky the only other one that knows this?), and being stronger and more likeable than Locky, she is a way bigger threat. I would be doing whatever I could to get her out of the game as soon as possible. For Tessa she needs to find a way to do it that doesn’t perpetuate the idea in Locky that Tessa is gunning for them. I suggest use Michelle again. Michelle already mentioned during champagne alliance night that Locky was second on her list. Just nudge her a little, and stay out of the firing line. If she gets the chance to do so surreptitiously she should try and convince Locky that she is with him. Vote with him two or three tribals from now to remove Sarah or Luke, then flip back to work with Jerkicho and Michelle to get through to the end. Though I can’t see either Jerkicho or Michelle winning this game, I do wonder what they should be doing to get as far as they can.

Gimme Shelter (I know, it’s not The Who, but it’s close, and fits our episode)

***Is it wrong to get someone drunk on Survivor to find out who has the idol?***

I mentioned above that Michelle will likely be influenced by Tessa and gun for Locky now. Is that the right move for her though? If Locky were smart he’d do the same as Tess and try and take her under his wing. She’s already shown him that she will follow him (the Anneliese vote) if she feels lost. So if we suppose that Locky and Tess are her two options, which way is best for her? I feel like this requires more thinking than I have in me tonight. Especially if we throw Sarah into the mix. My first instinct is that both Sarah and Tess will see her value as a goat and are more likely to use her to get to the end and potentially take her with them. Locky on the other hand is too tight with Ziggy, and much more likely to throw Michelle under the balls when it suits him, preferring to take T-Bone to the end. So Michelle should go with both Tess and Sarah until they target one another, and reassess then.

The Kid’s All Right (well, not really but I’m running out of The Who songs here)

***🎵…but my mum won’t admit it…🎵 (some The Who cuts are deeper than others)***

I’ve said in previous posts that Jerkicho won’t win. I stand by that. There’s still value in considering his options though. Sticking with Luke seems a no-brainer, I see no reason at this stage to suggest turning on that alliance. If I know Jerkicho (and I don’t) I think he’ll actually do just that pretty soon. I do suggest doing it before the end as he’ll never beat him at final tribal. Jerkicho’s only bet to win is to go against Tara or Michelle (or maybe even Peter) at final tribal. His only way to get there is to stay strong with Luke. Take out Ziggy ASAP. Then work towards getting Tess or Pete out, then move against Sarah before she tries to split you and Luke up. From there you need to get the lay of the land with where Locky is and where Tess or Pete is, and move whichever way is going to get yourself and Luke closer to a final four with Tara and Michelle. This is the plan for Luke too, however Luke isn’t quite as limited as to who he can beat in a final two and therefore doesn’t have quite as narrow a path to the end.

My Generation

This game seems to be changing so much from episode to episode. Last episode it looked that Locky and Ziggy were in a powerful position. At that point we didn’t know that old Asaga were so tight. We know better now and, it’s clear that Locky and Ziggy are now in a sticky situation. I suggest they have two options from here; attempt to align with Pete and Tess (and T-Bone) giving them the numbers to take out old Asaga, or try and convince old Asaga that Tess is a bigger threat than they are. Both of these options will only get them so far and the reality is that the rest of the tribe will want to split the two of them up. I think they should stick together if they continue to win immunity, after that the best bet is for each of them to try and remove the other the first chance they get. Neither will take the other to the final two, and either of them is a shot to win the final immunity challenge, so it’s too risky to take the other even to the final three.

Sub-sti-tute! My Cash For Food

I love Auction and this is one of the most fun, and most perplexing, I’ve witnessed. Firstly, the twist. Great! Provided a lot of fun watching Luke take all that food, and other advantage. Also has the effect of motivating future players to bid early rather than hold on to their cash waiting for idols/advantages/home and family contact. Speaking of home contact, I was surprised that we had this so soon after letters from home, but I wasn’t complaining. It had me bawling as usual. I watched the episode twice and was sobbing both times. I suspect that if I ever get to play the game, as much as I think I’d want to stay strong and hold out bidding until an advantage or idol clue or something comes up (depending on how comfortable I feel), I just know that the second a phone call is mentioned I couldn’t help myself. I would be all in. All chips on the table. What I do wonder is which is the better advantage; the challenge advantage, or the reward meal/night with guests? Both options have pros and cons. I really am bum-puzzled about which is the more beneficial. What would you pick and why? Let me know in the comments. I was surprised no one seemed to be looking for idols or clues on their night away. I thought for sure there’d be at least a clue there after two were played the night before. This time last year in the same reward there was no idol or clue so that seems to be a pattern for us here in Australia.

What Zenry did was part of the game. What Jerkicho did here was just spiteful and malicious.

I was perplexed by those who players who didn’t bid on food. I expected they were therefore waiting for advantage or home/family contact. Why did they not bid as high as they could out of the gate when those things came up? Maybe they were not that familiar with how the auction worked. I’m not sure how I feel about the drawing rocks solution to multiple max bids. Usually it’s first in with a max bid gets the spoils. That one person could lose all their money and not get anything, even when they knew what they were bidding on, seems unfair on the face of it. I’ll let my thinking on this gestate for a little before I make up my mind though. What are your thoughts? I can’t finish this post and this section on the auction without taking the opportunity to once again underline an instance of Jerkicho being a jerk. Making Tess work for her reward when he could never outbid her. We know who the real ‘Mothertrucker is tonight’. What Zenry did was playing the game. What Jerkicho did here was just spiteful and malicious. Just a jerk, jerk move. It made me feel better when he made like George W. Bush and stuffed up the ‘fool me once…’ adage…

And now, I can finally get some sleep. Three nights a week is a killer. Four next week if Aus Survivor is three nights again and you count US Survivor. As much as I’d love to there’s no way I can post about US Survivor as well as Australian. That would almost be a full-time job! And I’m afraid I’m not in a position where burley men in baseball caps give me envelopes of money with which to buy food. I have to actually work for my money.

One thing I will take time to write about though, hopefully before the end of the season, is an entire post on Henry’s game. I’d really love to take the time to break down all of the moves he made and see where the value is and what to avoid. Even though he didn’t get to the end, I’m not convinced that his flip to Samatau was a bad move. He threw so much at the game there’s a lot to chew on and I think it will be an interesting exercise. Tell me what you think and stay tuned. Until next week, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

*You may or may not have noticed that this post is full of links to songs by The Who (and one by The Rolling Stones). Did you find them all?! Unfortunately I couldn’t add links to the references in the title so here they are: ‘Won’t Get Fooled Again‘, ‘Bubbly O’Riley‘.

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 17 – ‘Cookie Alliance Rides Again’ OR ‘Where’s the Jam? Scone by Daylight’

Don’t get caught saying the ‘F’ word, get the lowdown on the lead up to this episode by checking out the previous analysis here!

***Just after this T-Bone literally said “if somebody flops a bit, it’s dangerous”. That’s what my ex-wife used to say too…***

Welcome to one of the most entertaining episodes this season. From hijinx to strategy this episode had it all. Let’s not waste time in the preamble, let’s get straight into the biggest talking point.

Wish In One Hand, Dirt In The Other

Holy shit!! Was this the first time we have ever seen anybody get the same idol twice? This was delicious television. More importantly, it was great social and strategic gameplay from Zenry. Having given Jerkicho the clue, there was always going to be the risk that Jerkicho (and therefore others at old Asaga) thought that Zenry had kept the idol for himself. What he has pulled off here is nothing short of inspired. This negates the effect of any suspicion while strengthening the bond they have. Pure genius.
After Jerkicho’s sneaky underlining of Jarrad’s name last episode, this is exactly what this viewer needed to see. Egg on Jerkicho’s face. The other thing that was on Jerkicho’s face, was Jam.

Conserving Your Energy (you read that correctly, I went there)

***Even to a self-professed Luke/Jerkicho detractor, this scene was finger-lickin good***

For those who’ve read me analysis before, I’ve often pondered whether the stealing of the food is worth the risk. Usually I’ve sided the way of, if you’re reasonably certain you can get away with it, and you are a good liar, then go for it. I’m a terrible liar, so for me to do it I would need to make sure that nobody even knew it was gone. The Cookie Alliance (sans Sarah) were all over this like the CWA on a scone. I suspect that Jerkicho and Luke’s motivation was just to have some cheeky fun. For Zenry, it was all about continuing to strengthen the bond with the guys. He also was quick to see the value in letting it become the annoying mosquito at the BBQ. Let this controversy get stuck in the craw of those galahs who are still scrambling to find their footing post merge. He didn’t stoke the fire, he didn’t need to, but he was more than happy to let it keep burning. Would he have decided to eat the jam by himself? Unlikely, he has too much to lose. If they were discovered he has two other jokers who can share the load of the rest of the tribe’s ire. I guess the risk though is that it outs them as a strong alliance. I guess one could always argue say that it was just about the food. I guess I should probably get away from background gameplay now and actually start discussing the immediate gameplay and it’s outcome.

Faking My Harlequin

Firstly, I don’t really think of Anneliese as a ‘harlequin’, I just wanted to take the opportunity to throw in a Robert Pollard reference (rock out here). Back to the game, and specifically Anneliese’s game. I have to say I’m really sad to see her go. I also feel that I deserve egg on my face after being so high on her position in the previous episode’s analysis. In my defence, there were a number of things we didn’t know. Primarily, her relationship with Locky and Zenry. Previous post I asked why Locky and Zenry left Anneliese out of the Jarrad vote. What it seems like actually happened, was that they did approach her, and she chose not to vote with them. This appear to be her fatal mistake. I’ve been going over and over in my head whether I had known this information yesterday I would have advised her to work with Locky and Zenry, or stick with Samatau. Unfortunately I can’t un-know knowing that she went home tonight, and so there’s no way I can objectively say what I would have suggested in that situation. This is why I love Survivor so much, it’s such a dynamic game. It’s also what frustrates me about watching it. That I’m not there playing it with them.

Before I get off Anneliese I need to talk about the fake conversation. When Locky asked Anneliese if he could have his idol, my first thought was that she should absolutely tell him that she would play it for him at tribal. We sure as hell know from her POV that this is a fake conversation, we don’t know that Locky feels the same way though. I suspect that Locky is so wrapped up in his own ego that he could not help but believe that were it offered to him. It was at least worth a try. If she’s not worried about losing his vote, there’s no reason not to lie to him in this way. If it didn’t have any effect on his plans, it would not have negatively impacted her game any further. It may have been just enough to placate him a little and perhaps we would not have ended up in a situation where Ziggy felt that it would be necessary to play her Super-Idol. Speaking of Ziggy, I feel somewhat responsible for tonight’s outcome.

Devilish Handling of an Idol Play Thing

***“I’d like to walk like a supermodel please”***

You may remember that in the previous analysis I suggested that the best move from Ziggy would be to align with Locky. Obviously she reads my shit. So obviously I think this was the right move for Ziggy. Some may argue that it was a waste of a Super-Idol. That it should be saved for a greater threat later in the game, and when her neck is on the chopping block. I disagree. I think the Super-Idol was a burden, and to get rid of it in a way that solidifies a bond when you need one is a great way to play. Quick clarification if anyone can help me out. Is Ziggy still left with a regular idol? I was confused when the Super-Idol was introduced, I wasn’t sure if it had the power tonight, plus regular idol power, and whether these two powers had to be used in the same tribal or not. If you know, fill me in in the comments. Regardless, old Samatau was a sinking boat. She didn’t really have a choice but to flip. This is however going to make things interesting within the new majority. Zenry has already made his feelings for Ziggy known, so it’s only a matter of time that he goes for her. From here she is going to have to find a new target, one that Locky can get behind. Likely Michelle. Given that Tessa is probably going to vote that way too, it makes sense to me.

Let’s Tess-ellate

***“Scratch that, what’s the singular of ‘friends’?”***

I can’t recall whether it was Tessa or Pete that turned to the other post eviction and said something along the lines of “guess it’s just me and you now”. It’s sad. I’m a big Tess fan and she is really up against it now. In the previous analysis I suggested that Tessa should, and probably would, find a trouble-maker to throw under the balls. For now she needs to identify who that person is that people think is dodgy AF, and systematically gather up all the shade she can throw it their way. I suspect that person will be Michelle. I’m hoping it’s Jerkicho or T-Bone (incidentally did anyone else think it ironic when T-Bone said “`it’s been too easy” after (seemingly) sitting by the fire all day while everyone else scrambled and maneuvered to push through the game). It could even be Sarah. I know I haven’t touched on old Asaga much this episode, we didn’t see much of them. But one thing is for sure, they can only stay out of the shadows for so long, especially with Tess looking to get herself out of a sticky situation. Perhaps there is the clue for who she needs to target. Those with sticky (jam covered) fingers.

Keep #jamgate alive!!!! Until tomorrow, I’ve got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 16 – ‘Payback is a Bub’ OR ‘Summer(Tau) Lovin, Happened So Fast’

Don’t start the merge in a jam, get all the up to date pre-merge analysis here.

***You know that’s not how war works right Jerkicho?***

This is why we love the merge. Going in to tribal I had no idea of the way this was going to go, just as coming in to this merge I did not know where the alliances stood. Now that we have our first post-merge tribal under our belt, we have a better idea what the moving parts are and which way they’re moving. Let’s see if we can actually articulate these below.

Underlining Strategy

***Irony is a dish best served delicious…***

I must say I was surprised to see Jarrad move so forcefully so soon after the merge. Though we’ve not seen a hell of a lot of Jarrad over the last 15 episodes, I had the impression that his gameplay would be more subtle than what we saw tonight. Generally the way to play going in to the merge is to lay low and watch what happens. So to see Jarrad of all people try to make a move was surprising and clearly didn’t go so well for him. I can understand and appreciate the thinking behind it, to strike before he sees it coming. He’d obviously been thinking it for some time and was waiting for his opportunity to go for it. And I agree that it would be a great dot point on the resume. Unfortunately this is classic over-confidence bias at work. He wants something to happen, and instead of looking at all the things that could go wrong, if he knew them he ignored them because the temptation was so great. It was this overconfidence that had him thinking that Locky would be with him. While Jarrad did show some awareness of the flaws in his game in his post exit blurb over credits, it’s a shame for him that he didn’t have this awareness of what was going on around him as it was happening.

Flippin’ Plankers

Jarrad wasn’t the only one I thought was falling prey to overconfidence bias. When Zenry started talking about it being time to start ‘making decisions’ I was worried that he might be the one getting overexcited. Again, I didn’t necessarily diasagree with his decision that Ziggy was dangerous and needed to go. My current assessment as to why he was successful in influencing Locky, while Jarrad and Tessa weren’t, was in their approaches. Tessa particularly showed great awareness of her opponents’ characters in her understanding that Locky needed his ego stroked and to be made to feel important in order to keep him under control. However, in actually discussing the way forward with Locky and getting his opinion, she was forthright with him about what they needed to do (To Target Luke. We were given the impression that there had already been a discussion with Locky re targeting Zenry, unfortunately we don’t know the details). Zenry on the other hand made Locky feel important. While he was urgent in his plea to Locky to come with him, he did it in a way that made Locky feel important and that they were doing this together. Tessa and other Samatauans wanted Locky along for the ride, Zenry made Locky think he was in the driving seat.

Of course it is worth noting that Zenry had spent most of his time at Samatau forming a bond with Locky, whereas the rest of Samatau had not done so at all. I can’t recall ever seeing Jarrad have a conversation with Locky, and during the early days it was pretty clear that Locky and Tessa were amicably not aligned with one another. Locky was not the only one who needs their ego stroked.

MicHellion

***I wonder which side he would have supported in the last world war?***

Damn that scene where Michelle confronted Tessa about not being kept in the loop was awkward. You could see Tessa trying to hold back the words that were coming out of her mouth and cringing at how they sounded. Effectively telling Michelle she was on the bottom of the alliance if she was in it at all. Was it the right move for Michelle to flip? I believe so. Both she and Locky knew that Tessa, Jarrad, Pete, and Ziggy were tight and unlikely to be persuaded to split and form sub-alliances with either of them. It looks like Locky could have an offsider in Michelle now. As much as I’m sick of seeing Locky take for granted his harem of fawning women, I hope for his sake he realises that Michelle has joined his stable. I’m more interested in seeing Michelle get as much out of this union as she can before ditching his arrogant arse.

Sucky Situation

***🎵Brother, brother, brother, there’s far too many of you dying…🎵***

So what can old Samatau do now that it seems the numbers are against them? Shit, I really don’t know. Individually, it might be best for each of them to start looking at other options. I feel Ziggy has the charm to be able to get back in Locky’s good books, I could be very wrong about that though. She needs to start finding her new wing-person that’s for sure. Who that will be I don’t know. If you’ve got a suggestion, share below.
I have zero idea where Anneliese stands. The good news for her is that she has options. Up until this vote I thought she was with Zenry and Locky. If they really are together I suspect Locky did not have time to talk to her as he really did decide at tribal or just before, and that Zenry did not want to risk a leak. She is actually in a great position, an idol in her hand, only one person that knows (I think just Zenry right), no enemies, and potential allies all around her. I couldn’t tell you her best move now, she doesn’t need to make a positive decision yet. She can just hang and see how things shake out.
Tessa too has her work cut out for her. Having never been to Asaga and forming relationships with them, Tara harbouring old grudges, never fostering a relationship with Zenry, and showing slightly less than contempt for Michelle. Things don’t look good. She and Peter need to come up with something quick. If I were Tess, my play would be less about hitching my wagon to a strong ally, and more about finding a target to undermine. Perhaps Tara again, or even Ziggy. Whatever the case, I can see Tess and Pete scrambling next episode. Oh how the tables have turned.

Swinger’s Party

The other thing I want to briefly discuss before I snuff the flame on the torch of this post, is the reward ‘twist’ and the dilemma it creates. My first question is have we ever seen somebody actually choose the selfish option? I don’t ever recall anybody ever taking the selfish option. So I have no idea how that works out historically (comment below if you have ever seen a season where somebody does take the selfish option). I’ve seen plenty of occasions where somebody takes the altruistic option and is voted out next. I think that if you’re already in players’ bad books, sharing reward won’t get you out of those books. I see the point about while you would have the advantages over your opponents of having eaten, feeling clean and refreshed, and the motivation that comes with having read letters from home, the guilt at having not shared the love with everyone you live with may completely disrupt one’s game and drain any energy gained from your reward. I’d love to know how much a decision like this would change the game. Incidentally I do wonder had she taken the selfish option, how many other players, if any she could have taken with her. Were I faced with this situation that knowledge would definitely influence my decision. Regardless, I suspect my humanity would get the better of me and I would take the altruistic option.
It goes without saying that this scene had me blubbering as it always does. One thing that did cross my mind as I was watching the challenge was how much more emotional and suspenseful it would be if those letters were knocked off the balance beam and directly into the fire. Harsh. Let’s leave this post with that thought. I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 15 – ‘One Night Stand’ OR ‘Gang of Four’

Don’t let there be any big surprises at this tribal (ffs how many times did J-LaP ask about that tonight?), check the previous episode’s analysis here!

I don’t understand what these people on Asaga are doing. Am I obtuse? Do I not understand this game at all? Perhaps there was a lot here that we didn’t see or was edited out. I’m not saying I disagree with the choice to take out Odette, I just don’t understand people’s justifications. Particularly with T-Bone still in the mix(ed grill).

Anyway let’s make like Luke in the jungle and search for some meaning in all of this.

Unhappy Family

***TFW there’s more letters in your tribe name than members of your tribe***

Before I get into individual gameplay I have to say how shocked I was at the amount of strategy disclosed during tribal tonight. Everybody sitting on the log tonight seemed more than happy to tell J-LaP, and thus the rest of the tribe, what their game plan was going forward. Not even in a fake-out way to trick Odette. I guess that tells us that this group of people are pretty much exhausted and done working with one another, or completely comfortable with one another (which I really can’t believe). I can’t see any other justification short of sheer stupidity, or at the very least, poor cognizance that this disclosure could actually work against them. It’s not very often that I make solid predictions, but contrary to Odette’s opinion I have to believe that none of these people can win this game.

Free(d) Agent

There’s not much to say about Odette that I haven’t said before. Floating can only work for so long. I know there’s people out there that thought that this floating, much like Kristie’s last season, could take her all the way. The difference between Odette and Kristie is that Kristie actually did make strategic decisions about where she would float to. Odette’s strategy on the other hand seemed to be to just vote with the majority every time. And given she didn’t know what the majority was, that it seemed to come down to her, she couldn’t make an actual decision. She even went as far as saying that she would toss a coin, and I don’t think she was just saying that. I get the impression that if there was a coin on island she would have done that. And when she told camp (I’m not sure who was there exactly, if you know leave a comment below) that she would do that I was shocked. That sort of behaviour has never worked in Survivor. It didn’t work for Sean back in the very first season of US Survivor almost twenty years ago, just like it didn’t work for Barry last year. We suspected all along that Odette really didn’t understand this game, last episode she showed that she had no idea what the phrase ‘swing vote’ really meant, that you have the power to swing the vote your way. Again she had that power tonight and completely squandered it. Anybody who knows anything about how to play this game would take the opportunity to analyse what they can do with that power, not just for tonight’s vote but for their future game, and maneuver accordingly. You know what, y’all know this stuff, I’m not going to go on talking about what she did wrong. It’s all very obvious to even the johnniest of come-latelies. She seems like a really lovely person who I’d love to get to know, but Survivor is not her bag, at least not this season. I’d love to see her come back and play again having (hopefully) learned more about how to play this great game. T-Bone on the other hand…

River Dunce

***🎵…flippie to the flippie, to the flip, flip, flop, and you don’t stop a rock it, to the bang, bang boogie…🎵***

I should preface this next section by acknowledging the possibility that my personal preference or otherwise toward Tara as a person could cloud my strategic view. I suspect that were I on island with Tara, she and I would not get along. I find her irksome and I cringe whenever I see her onscreen. So it’s possible that the following is more a reflection of my distaste for her than my disrespect of her game and where she stands in the game dynamic.
Why was T-Bone not the easy vote tonight? I would argue that she’s a greater threat than Odette post merge. She is just as unpredictable as Odette if not more-so. And she has ties to Samatau. Could they be looking at her as a goat? She is a very risky goat. Likely to flip (and flop) at a moment’s notice. Why her name did not come up tonight (or at least we didn’t see it) has me completely bum-puzzled. Having said that, she now is in a good position to get as far as her personality and gameplay allow her. Which way should she be going post-merge? Well she has to assess her options. We don’t know exactly what her old Samatau friends; Locky, Anneliese, and even Pirate Petey think about working with her. One would assume Locky would take whatever alliance is going at the moment. She needs to suss this out and let the big, noise-making players take the heat while she finds her path.

Model Prisoner in the Five-Senses Realm

***Sarah – “Perhaps you shouldn’t be such a jerk then jerk”***

I mentioned in my last analysis, and previously in the series, that Sarah needs a wingman, and that wingman should be Odette. While I do feel that riding this trio train (plus the T-Bone caboose) into merge station is safer than shuffling in as part of an Asaga divided, I stand by the decision that she needs a wingman. Perhaps she sees Pirate Petey as that wingman. Good luck if that’s the case. The foursome she is riding in with will only stay together for so long, and I’ve no doubt she knows that. Having Odette loyally by her side (if of course Odette could have ever been convinced to be loyal and join a strong twosome) would have helped her ride the storm once Jerkicho and Luke inevitably decided to sever ties. I do agree with her however that tonight was not the night to try and lose Luke. So notwithstanding that I think it was better to get rid of T-Bone than Odette, if she had tried to lose Luke, then the risk was too strong that this could backfire and put her back in the immediate firing line. Much better that she let him go to merge as her shield, as he now looks to Samatau that he was running the show in Asaga. She can keep that shield for as long as works for her while she finds another path to the end with the other players. I shouldn’t dismiss the strategic possibility of actually really joining Luke and Jerkicho as a solid threesome to the end. While I’d like to think that this option should remain open for strategic reasons, the reality is that there is too much animosity between them for that to occur.

Circle Jerk

***I thought “A-game to the A-frame” was the worst J-LaPism I’d ever heard until he followed it a minute later with “near the end of the limit!”….so you mean, like, the ‘limit’???***

Firstly, what is it with Jerkicho and his war metaphors? Fuggin christianity… Anyway, I do have to give credit to Jerkicho for a few things today. His performance in the challenge was nothing short of powerful. Well done. Also well done for the way he made Odette feel comfortable about the impending vote. For a while there, I wasn’t sure what he was doing, I thought he was putting a target on his own back by so openly strategising with Odette directly after his alliance had all seemingly agreed Odette was the target. I suspect there was a conversation there amongst the foursome that we did not see. That it was agreed that Jerkicho should go and talk to O to make her feel comfortable. Other than that I don’t think I saw anything from Jerkicho that interested me.

**“Clearing out the forest” – actual footage of Luke trimming his pubes again**

Same goes for Luke. Again, I agree that it was time to set enmity aside and take out Odette as an easy vote, rather than raise Sarah’s hackles and consequently raise the risk that he could go tonight, and hope they’ll merge shortly. I’m unsure whether it is better for him to keep T-Bone over Odette. Is it possible that he still thinks that he can sway Tara? I can see that he would be arrogant enough to think so. For him I suspect it was six of one and half a dozen of the other. He’s not interested in either long term. From here though, with a merge on the horizon, it might be time to turn on the charm offensive and try his luck as a number with either of he Samatau alliances. Either way it will be interesting to see just what happens for him during the merge, particularly what happens between he and Zenry, given Zenry is in a weak position within his Samatau homies.

That will do for tonight. Overall this was a somewhat boring episode, but when it comes to ‘reality tv’ they can’t all be staggeringly stupendous. Until merge Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 14 – ‘Hidden ImMUTINY Eye-roll’ OR ‘Easiest Option’

Before I get started, there’s something the pedant in me needs to get off my pedantic chest. Please J-LaP. Please stop saying ‘commit mutiny’. That’s not what ‘mutiny’ means. Get a dictionary Survivor production, C’MON!. And the way he was saying it sounded like he was trying to make it a Survivor thing. I don’t know whether or not I’d be happy with this becoming a thing, but regardless, don’t fuggin’ call it ‘committing mutiny’. Please call it ‘jumping ship’, that would be much better and contextually correct. And fuck knows what he meant by the line “Peter stole your life boat”. What does that actually mean? I can understand how it could mean something to Sarah, but Asaga in general? What drugs you been smokin’ fool?

Luke Warm

***Neither of those things seemed to help you this episode L-Man***

This was almost the episode in which Luke’s erratic gameplay pigeons came home to roost. His gameplay thus far has been hit and miss. We, or at least I, have never really been able to get a read on whether there is strategy behind his tactics, or whether his strategy really is, as he said at the very beginning, to fuck shit up (I may be paraphrasing there). At one point in this episode he gave us a list of all the different ways he had his ‘alliance’ voting, and they were all voting different ways. I don’t get it Luke. What are you trying to achieve with that? Power is no good to you if you don’t know how to wield it, or can’t direct it in a way in which it will actually aid you. It’s like he’s gone to the race-track with a million dollars, and put $100,000 on each horse in a ten horse race. Sure, your horse will win, but you’ll lose. To be fair, I understand why he had told Jerkicho that the vote was for Peter. I’m not against it. It was reminiscent of Tony Vlachos. Do what you gotta do not to have it blow up in your face before or at tribal, and then ask for forgiveness afterwards. If tribal had gone this way and Sarah had gone home it’s possible that Jerkicho would not have appreciated the blindside and accepted Luke’s apology (assuming that’s what Luke would have done), and actually turned against Luke. But Luke thinks that he has Jerkicho in his pocket and Jerkicho has done nothing so far to have Luke believe otherwise.
Where Luke failed tactically was in not telling T-Bone that that’s what he was going to do Jerkicho. In fact I’d go back a step and say where he failed strategically was in telling T-Bone what was going to happen and not asking her. This was never going to wash with her, so I’m not surprised it had her carrying on like a pork chop. He’s been more sensitive about this stuff in the past, maybe just the hunger is getting to him, or maybe he’s getting cocky. Either way it blew up in his face tonight. Where to from here then? Well in my mind he’s incredibly lucky that there wasn’t any vote, now he can start over with Jerkicho and T-Bone and aim for Sarah if that’s what he wants to do. And if I were him that’s exactly what I would do. He knows, not just suspects, KNOWS, that Sarah wants him gone (more on this later). You don’t get that too often in Survivor. He needs to capitalise on the way she behaved at tribal tonight and get T-Bone working with him on booting Sarah. With him, not for him. Speaking of T-Bone…

“Not the Smartest Person” or “A Game that I Don’t Want to Play” (T-Bone makes it so easy for me to write headings. She practically hands them to me on a silver platter)

***Guess you better stop fighting then… again***

Firstly I have to say how sorry I feel for Tara. This poor woman has lived her entire life having never seen a circus before. Circuses, when done well, are fabulous fun entertainment. I’m so sorry you’ve never had the opportunity to enjoy them T-Bone. Hopefully you do soon. Back to the game. What was T-Bone thinking telling Sarah that Luke was working against her? Would you say this is tantamount to flipping alliances? Much like Luke, this smacks of not actually having a strategy, and just being drunk on power (the power that she knows what Luke wants to do), and trying to show everyone that she is relevant and important in this game. Again, she had power, but doesn’t know where to point it. So instead of taking her gunpowder, putting it in a bullet and taking a shot at her biggest threat (which honestly at this point is probably herself really), she puts it in a firecracker and just throws it on the ground and watches it spin out. Then on top of her inability to actually work towards achieving something this episode, she faffs around at tribal exposing secrets and making herself look utterly unreliable. A game that she doesn’t want to play indeed. Usually at this point I’d offer advice on what to do next, but I don’t want to waste any further energy on her. We see from the next preview that she again decides to play the victim and attack Luke for telling her what to do. Now I know I said above that Luke should not be acting that way with her, but jesus lady, he is/was the only person who’s actually taken her under their wing at Asaga and she wants to spit on that relationship too?! This game isn’t about you T-Bone.

Feeling Fat

Was this the right move for Pete? I can’t see how anybody could argue otherwise. However actually it’s actually difficulty to actually analyse this actually properly without actually knowing more about the jumping ship rules. What would have happened if nobody had agreed to jump ship? Would they have voted? If they voted were they voting for someone to leave or someone to change tribe? Was this explained to the players before they were given this option? So it’s possible, and some would argue likely, that had the vote happened Pete could have gone home, or at the very least be sent . He seems to have very little on Asaga for him. Sure, if he stayed at Asaga he could take advantage of the current mood of disharmony and maybe make his way through another tribal there. In my estimation though the risk is too great for little reward. There’s nothing that he owes to the people of Asaga and no great opportunity he’s leaving behind. I too would have jumped at the chance to go back to anal liance I felt safe in, than to try my luck with Sarah.

Lies Straight Down

***I wouldn’t be so sure about that just yet…***

Where did Sarah go wrong tonight? Did she go wrong tonight? In many ways, yes. First off, everybody knows you just never tell anybody that you are against them. If that’s not Survivor rule #1 then it’s certainly top 5. Secondly, if T-Bone knows that there is a power struggle between you and Luke, then something has most certainly gone wrong. The strength of your game thus far has been in subtlety so something is not working if T-Bone know dat. I don’t know exactly what that something is though. Jerkicho was quick to notice that she was spending a lot of time talking to Pete and Odette, he showed good instincts there, but T-Bone made the above comment before all of that. Could it be the throw away vote she threw toward Pete at the AK vote? (PS if anyone can fill me in below on why she voted that way I’d love to hear it). Definitely going on that reward did not help her cause any. I’m not saying (yet) that she should have opted not to go (if that was possible), that’s a big call, and easy to make in hindsight. Food is a pretty strong driver at this point. Could she have played it cooler on returning to camp? Maybe. I just get the feeling that all of this time spent with Pete, and before that Anneliese, has put doubt into the minds of Luke and Jerkicho. This doubt was substantiated when Pete ostensibly picked her for reward, and Luke just wanted to play it safe and vote her before she gets any real power. So what can she do now? I guess she too needs to capitalise on the way that Luke behaved at tribal and try to sway T-Bone and Odette her way. Judging by the above note about T-Bones tirade toward Luke in the preview for the next episode, she might be in with a shot there. There perhaps was one other thing that she could have done this episode….

Jerry Duty

***“Damn gurl, your ear tastes like garlic bread”***

I mentioned above that Jerkicho’s perception was spot on when he noticed that Sarah had been spending too much time talking to others in the lead up to tribal council. Again, what he did with this information, well I just don’t know that he actually had a plan. We saw him sit down and tell her to stop, I’m guessing because he just wants to tell her to play cool and stay ‘Asaga strong’ together plucking off the low hanging fruit until they have to turn on each other. Somehow he did know that she had been throwing Luke’s name around, and chose the time that Luke was sitting with the two of them to reveal it. I mentioned above that she should never have admitted this to Luke, and I stand by that, but I can understand how she was put in a situation here where she had to make a snap decision here about how to respond to the allegation, and chose to tell the truth. I can see how that could happen. What became clear to me though, from the conversation that followed between the three of them was that Tara was the one who had let slip that Luke wanted Sarah out too. At this point all I could think was, ‘gang, please set aside your differences here and see who the real person is that’s causing this disharmony and take out this loose cannon’. I can understand why Luke might not be so responsive to this idea initially, but if Sarah could convince Luke by sharing what T-Bone said that T-Bone is not the little puppet he thinks he has under his control, then maybe he might be tempted to take her out, and I don’t mean for a steak dinner. Ultimately, T-Bone betrayed him, and I can’t imagine that he would take too kindly to that. Next episode it looks to me that Luke is going to have to decide whether he uses T-Bone to take out the woman who has blatantly told him she was going to vote for him, or whether he uses Sarah to take out the woman who has betrayed him by selling secrets to his enemies. As I mentioned above, T-Bone looks like she’s not going to do herself any favours in Luke’s eyes in this respect. I see I’ve somewhat contradicted my earlier suggestion for Luke. To be honest, with a merge around the corner I really don’t know which of these two options is better for him. Give me your thoughts in the comments below.

As far as what Jerkicho should do from here, sit back and let this play out. I’d stay with Luke for as long as you can, but if it looks like the numbers aren’t going to go that way and the three Asaga women are going to vote against Luke, then you need to flip too, and hope that merge comes soon so you can hook back up with Zenry. Of course, I don’t really care what he does, he’s never going to make it to the end anyway, especially without Luke, and that’s perfectly fine with me.

Similarly for Odette, I just can’t see a path to the end for her. A few episodes ago I said that she needs to find a friend quick. An offsider. With Sarah seemingly also without an offsider, I would suggest that she hitch her wagon to that train. Solidly. And hope for the best.

***“…preferably from a goon-bag please Jonno”***

I know I’ve not had much to say about Samatau in this post, hopefully we’ll get to see more of them next episode. A few notes briefly regarding last week’s episodes that I didn’t write about while I was taking a break. Of course I’m very sad to see AK, the male Rebel Wilson, go. Not only because I enjoyed his gameplay, but because I missed using the ‘Hang the DJ’ headline for his boot episode. I won’t get started on how I feel about the fact that he’s gone and Tara’s still there other than to say that this result is everything that is wrong with that type of twist and change to the every tribal someone goes home (or to redemption) standard format we know and love. The other thing that I need to say about last week is how absolutely great it was to see that Jerkicho’s favourite food is JERKY!!!!! That has been putting a smile on my face all week! I’ll leave you with that, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

Episode 12 & 13 – ‘Exile Island’ OR ‘Buffs Dropped’

Hey there true believers. This weekend sees a scheduled break in analysis for a couple of episodes. But don’t fear, I’ll be back next week with all the news that’s fit to print, and some that isn’t.

– Russell Feathers

Survivor analysis by Russell Feathers, an Australian who thinks he has the numbers, but probably is about to have his torch snuffed (not a euphemism).

Need a sugar rush before you hit this analysis? Read the previous episodes analysis here!

A Big Annoying Thing

Michelle ‘n’ Man

A Straight Up Rascal

Thinking it Through Logilocky

Zig in a Poke

Aloha Luke

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

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Sarah. Sarah. No Time is a Good Time for Goodbyes

Big Bash Luke

Gettin’ Ziggy With(out) It

Playing it for Himself

“I’m not being emotional, I’m just hurt and pissed off and disappointed”

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

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(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

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Wish In One Hand, Dirt In The Other

Conserving Your Energy (you read that correctly, I went there)

Faking My Harlequin

Devilish Handling of an Idol Play Thing

Let’s Tess-ellate

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

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Underlining Strategy

Flippin’ Plankers

MicHellion

Sucky Situation

Swinger’s Party

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

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Unhappy Family

Free(d) Agent

River Dunce

Model Prisoner in the Five-Senses Realm

Circle Jerk

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

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Luke Warm

“Not the Smartest Person” or “A Game that I Don’t Want to Play” (T-Bone makes it so easy for me to write headings. She practically hands them to me on a silver platter)

Feeling Fat

Lies Straight Down

Jerry Duty

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)

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