Don’t be caught spewin’, know how we got here by catching up on yesterday’s analysis.

Finally we got exactly what we asked for and know the dynamics of the Samatau tribe. And oh how quickly the game has turned. I must admit heading in to tribal, everything about the edit, not just this episode, but this series, was telling me that AK (Male Rebel Wilson) was going tonight. I would have been unhappy, but not surprised if this were the case. So for it to turn out the way it did? Well let’s just say that there was so much fist pumping going on in my loungeroom that you might think CENSORED CENSORED CENSORED all over the CENSORED CENSORED. But was this actually the best move for the new dominant alliance in Samatau?

You Done Messed Up A-A-Ron! (maybe he didn’t but I really wanted to use that line)

Before I get started on whether Aimee was the right target, I need to acknowledge something that AK did tonight that I thought was exquisite. When he was telling us that he needed one more number, and that he thinks he might be able to get Peter, I was screaming at the TV “Get Jarrad to do it!!”. Thankfully he heard me. To hear AK then tell us that this was a better job for Jarrad because Jarrad has a softer approach, well I was really impressed with the insight that he showed. He’s come a long way from episode one where he was a complete bull at a gate. Itching to get into it. It didn’t just come across as shady, it actually came across as insincere. Since nearly going home in episode 2 for it, he may not have changed his strategy in terms of manouvering, but he certainly changed his social game. Whenever I’ve seen him speak with others recently he’s come across as very sincere and humble. Well done sir.

Back to targeting Aimee, let’s think this through for AK. This move has undermined Locky’s power in the game certainly. Now that we finally know that Peter, Jarrad, and even Ziggy feel vulnerable under his rule, why not vote him out? Is it about keeping Locky around as a meat shield? Much like week old Devon though, that’s some very risky meat though (I know I know, devon’s barely meat, but it feels good to talk about Devon). Locky’s not going to go down without a fight. I feel he still has it in him to convince Ziggy and others to flip back and vote out AK as he’s clearly such a strategic threat. We heard Ziggy say that she is in a final three alliance with AK and Jarrad, but we’ve only heard her say that to AK. I did feel a little that AK was coming on too strong when he was trying to sure up his position in the eyes of Locky, Tara, and Aimee. And good on Tara for having the insight to still be very wary of him.

It seems to me now that Locky was a better target.

So from here we see both Locky and Tara, both influential, in a position where they are going to fight hard and probably not going to flip against each other. Had Locky been removed then we would be left with Aimee and Tara. They don’t seem to be particularly loyal to one another, and it had already been determined that Aimee was a sheep. The new alliance could easily scoop Aimee up in the battle to remove Anneliese or Tara. It seems to me now that Locky was a better target. Particularly for AK who had everything to lose. It was not like if the plan against Locky hadn’t worked then AK would be stuck on a tribe with Locky after trying to vote him out, AK’d be gone. I hope to be proven wrong that this this was the wrong move. Time will tell. So what can Locky do now?

No Longer a Misfit, So it’s Time for Loki’s Mischief (do Norse mythology references work in this blog?)

He’s been thrown a lifeline, what should he do with it? Presumably he still has Tara and Anneliese in his corner. Are there two others that would flip back to their side and vote with them? I don’t think there are. At this point, imminent merge/shuffle notwithstanding (which I had predicted could be as soon as the next episode, but wasn’t mentioned in the preview, leading me to reconsider), I suspect the best way for him to save himself now is to flip on Tara or Anneliese. Tessa fuggin hates Tara (much like myself) and would be happy to see her go. It’s true that AK is a threat but everybody already knows that, they’ll want him gone eventually, but are happy to use him as their number for now. In this sense, AK could almost be Locky’s meat shield (now that’s some smelly baloney!). So I suggest Locky’s best move is to go and apologise to AK for not working with him and for being so arrogant, and make moves against Tara. However I don’t suspect this is within Locky’s repertoire, he’s too proud and, despite his protestations at the previous tribal, he loves being the alpha male and would never submit to someone like AK, even just for appearances. What about T-Bone (Tara for those who’ve been following the analysis since episode 1) now?

T-Bone Gettin’ Cooked!

Just as it was for Locky, my suggestion for Tara would be to show some humility here. She was outplayed. Judging the preview of tomorrow night however, as we would actually expect from T-Bone, she clicks it. Digging a hole for herself making it easier for Locky and Anneliese to piss down on her. Given what we learnt tonight about her relationship with P-Styles (I’m trying that out for Peter, let me know what you think. Maybe P-Con?), perhaps the better move would be to have a chat with him, and try and work her way back into the tribe’s good books. Or at least find out if there’s a possibility she can shift the target from her to anyone else. Will she do this? Guess we won’t know until we get there.

You Can’t Spell ‘Anneliese’ Without ‘Lies’

I imagine things are feeling shaky for Anneliese now too. Is there a way she can ingratiate herself back into the now dominant alliance? I don’t know that she has any relationship with any of those players. It is important for her however to find out where Locky’s head is at. There’s a possibility he could flip on her to save himself and Tara. If she gets the impression that this is a possibility, then vote with the new alliance. Tara and Locky are the bigger threats here so it’s best for her to blend in to the background somewhat and let the heat flow their way. Ultimately as long as Locky and T-Bone don’t try to throw her under the balls, I don’t think it makes a difference if she votes with them or against them. With a merge/shuffle likely around the corner and the two of them bigger threats than she is and should be safe until then. Play it cool Anneliese.

Paging Dr. Comeback

I’m so glad Dr. T is still around. She makes things so much more interesting. Her play here is pretty simple. Lay low. There’s much bigger targets around than here. Start subtly working the social relationship with Zig-a-zig-ah, P-Con and Jarrad (sorry Jazzy J, I don’t have a nickname for you yet) and vote whichever way you’re told. Like Markzan, I have confidence in you. Unlike Markzan, I don’t show it by voting against you.

P(eter)eanut butter and J(arrad)elly

Welcome to the game lads. To be fair I’m sure they’ve been playing a solid game thus far, we just haven’t been seeing it. I suspect they’ve been going with the flow waiting for a time like this to nudge the game in their favour. Well done men. Looking forward to seeing more from you. Pearl Jam (does that work for Peter and Jarrad or is it a stretch? Fuck it, I’m going with it) now find themselves in a position of power. The best move for them is to stick with AK, Tess and Zig until merge/shuffle, vote out Locky, and go from there. Too risky to keep Locky around and I don’t think Tess or AK are going to flip against them. Things are pretty solid for the next few tribals for them unless something ridiculous happens.

Little Tribe Blue, Where Are You?

I’m well aware that I haven’t talked Asaga at all this post, that’s because there’s nothing of note to talk of there. I’m not even going to utter the C-word. You know, the one Jericho is no longer munching on. To quote Jerkicho himself, the tribe, or what we’re being shown of it is “booooring”.

Before I go a quick note to say how happy I am that we’re five episodes in and have had a boot every night. Thanks for listening to the fans channel ten. I hope I haven’t jinxed it.
Until Sunday, I got nothing else for you, head back to camp.

– Russell Feathers

(Most memes created by Russell Feathers, most everything else and all gifs Channel Ten)