If you need to check out the previous episode's analysis, then you're at a disadvantage. Check it out here.
I'm afraid my worst fears have been realised, Lee and El are still in the final five. This was all thanks to Kristie deciding that Lee and El were better to move ahead with than Flick. Fuggin mateship and loyalty, bah humbug. Needless to say I don't like this move, and not only because I personally don't like Lee and El. I find them boring and without gameplay. The main reason I don't like this move is because I've long said I think it's very difficult to beat Lee or El in the final two. Is this still the case though?
Knowing the Numbers Well
At the 'getting to know you' challenge last episode we learned that Lee was the most popular contestant and Kristie was the least. If popularity translates to jury votes, then that certainly puts Kristie at a disadvantage if she were to stick with Lee to the final two. It might be time to reexamine this presumption that Lee and El are unbeatable in the final two I've been holding on to for a few episodes now. So let's take a look at the jury numbers though. If we look at the final eleven and forecast and rank who they think is most deserving to win this we end up with the following:
Nick: Flick most deserving, followed closely by, Kristie, Matt, Lee, and El
Kylie: El, Lee, Flick, Kristie, Matt
Sue: Kristie, Lee, El, Flick, Matt (I really don't know what Sue is thinking, but I think she definitely would put Kristie at the top)
JL: Kristie, Flick, Lee, El, and Matt
Brooke: this could go either way, but I'd like to think that she would stick with Flick, followed by El, Lee, Matt, and Kristie
Sam: Matt, Flick, Kristie, El, Lee
Matt: Flick, Kristie, Lee, El
Kristie: Lee, El, Flick, Matt
Flick: El, Matt, Lee, Kristie
El: Lee, Kristie, Flick, Matt
Lee: El, Kristie, Flick, Matt
(Looking forward to the final episode to see how wrong I am. If you disagree please tell me your thoughts in the comments)
Ok, so based on the above presumptions if Kristie went against Lee or El then Kristie actually wins 5 to 4. If she goes against Flick then she loses 5 to 4, unless Brooke still resents Flicks move and votes against her, in which case Kristie wins 5 to 4. And against Matt she wins 6-3. With these numbers Kristie actually has the best chance of winning the game, if she can make it to the final two. Ideally for her though her best bet is to go to final two with Matt, which is going to be hard to pull off with Lee and El still in the game. I can't really see a scenario whereby this could happen. For Kristie to make it to the final two against either Lee or El then Lee and El need to be broken up before final three, because it's a pretty decent bet that Lee or El will win that final immunity if they're both in the final challenge and they will take each other. For Lee and El to be broken up however, Kristie would have to flip against them at some stage, weakening her position with the other, not so much though that the other would consider putting Flick or Matt before Kristie. So the overall impression that I'm getting about Kristie's road ahead is that she will continue to be a floater and there is every possibility that whichever way she floats she may just end up in the final three. Flick's road ahead is a different story altogether.
Bite Me Hard
Once Kristie indicated at tribal that there was a possibility she may not flip with Flick, it weakened Flick's move against Lee and El. Fortunately she had put the wheels in motion for a split vote (very smart Flick!), which would have still resulted in three votes against El. But with Sam's vote neutralized, if Flick had proceeded to vote against El, then it would have resulted in a 2-2 tie, with a possibility that Lee and El would both stay and know that Flick had voted against them. She really had no choice but to flip her vote back with Lee and El. Shame Flick, I would have liked to have seen you smash another alliance. Let's take a look at the jury numbers for Flick. As above, if Brooke votes with her, then she could beat Kristie 5-4. Against Lee and El she needs Brooke's vote to win 5-4. Against Matt she clearly wins with 6 or 7 votes going her way. Getting to the final two is going to be tough though. Firstly, she has to break up Lee and El. Very, very difficult with Kristie seemingly dropping anchor at the Isle of Lee and El. The best bet for Flick now is to win some friggin challenges, because I can't see anybody's wanting to take her to the final two. Good luck Flick. Much like Brooke, you played a very strong game, unfortunately Kristie decided to go another way.
In Need of Magical Scenarios
Similarly for Matt, it looks like the only way he is getting further is by winning some immunity challenges. We know he can do it, they just have to be the right challenges for him. According to the above numbers though, there isn't anyone he can beat at final two. If he does, he is going to have to spin one hell of a story to be able to swing some votes his way. Hopefully for Matt's sake I've got the numbers completely wrong.
Sleeping on a Cloud
Lee and El are sitting rather pretty right now with the most solid alliance that we've seen all season. It's unlikely that anything can break this alliance now. For either of them to win, the best bet is for one of them to take Matt. They can do that as long as Flick doesn't win immunities. It would require that they flip on each other or Kristie though and that seems unlikely. Or Matt wins the last immunity and makes that decision for them. A quick comment about Lee's comments toward Kristie at camp, telling her that she didn't have to take the 'magical' options. Was this a dig at Matt? If so, that was sly brother. Nice one, and good on you for using a three syllable word.
Exile on Main Beach
A final note about Sam. Was there a possibility he could have avoided this? Well, the reason he is here is because he sided with Brooke against Lee and El a few episodes ago. This put him in their bad books. Unfortunately he didn't do anything to try and redeem himself get back in their good books. He had an opportunity once Brooke was voted out to go to Lee and El and apologise and lay the blame on Brooke. Unfortunately he did the opposite and told Lee to suck it up. He also had a chance at exile beach, far away in time, to approach the two of them to see if they wanted to work with him. He really did nothing to keep his options open. Kristie, and Flick to some degree, have always kept their options open, and this is reflected in how far they have continued in the game.
Again though, and I hate to keep harping on about this, did no-one look for an idol at exile beach, far away in time? Lee for one should know better! He's been there before and knows that idols are on exile beach, far away in time. J-LaP is still asking if people have them so I presume they're out there. I would have expected Matt or Flick to look for one at their reward as well. I'd love to know if there was one there. If anybody is reading this who knows, please fill me in in the comments. Maybe we'll see one come into play to make things interesting again for our final five.
Three episodes left now and my hopes are pinned on a Flick, Matt or Kristie win. With Lee and El still there this seems increasingly unlikely. Perhaps I'll be pleasantly surprised. I got nothing else for you. Head back to camp.
– Russell Feathers